ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
Garth Turner
A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.
May 9th, 2021 | The Wages of War
The Greater Fool - If you haven’t tried to buy a house lately, don’t bother. It’s a war. For example, there’s the 5% Rule. Realtors are goading their clients into adding 5% to the price a seller is asking for every other bid that is registered. So on ‘offer day’ if eight other desperate buyers materialize, the idea is […]
May 7th, 2021 | Help Wanted
The Greater Fool - The job numbers suck. Some people wonder what impact this might have on real estate. The economic recovery. On interest rates. In case you missed it, Canada shed 207,000 positions in March. That just about nuked the gains seen in February. The jobless rate has gone in the wrong direction – up. Over 129,000 full-time […]
May 6th, 2021 | The Key Lesson
The Greater Fool - When Janet Yellen mused about rates going up the other day, she really stepped in it. Stock markets moaned and wavered for a few hours. Critics piled on saying a politician (she’s America’s finance minister equivalent) shouldn’t mess with central bank policy (she used to run the Fed). And it looks like President Joe told […]
May 5th, 2021 | The Fizzle
The Greater Fool - Was that it? Peak house? There’s a wee chill in the air. Perchance you’ve felt it. Maybe all of the greater fools have been used up. Perhaps as the herd’s dosed and bosses reopen offices, everything changes. Could be that we’ve simply hit a price wall. Maybe inflating rates and a tougher stress test have […]
May 4th, 2021 | Cabin Fevers
The Greater Fool - By the end of the week realtors will have shocking stats from all major markets. They’re just so darn useful in making non-homeowners froth and convulse with FOMO. Combined with engineered bidding wars, hold-back offers, blind auctions and deliberate mispricing, agents are driving a stake through the beating heart of affordability. But the Audi payments […]
May 3rd, 2021 | The Folks
The Greater Fool - “Been a follower for over a decade, and truly appreciate your content,” says Jay, dishing up the MSU required to sate me. “Keep it up!” So J and his wife are Millennials and first generation Canadians. Both sets of parents are in their 70s, retired. His folks are, by national standards, wealthy. Hers are desperate. […]
May 2nd, 2021 | Ka-boom
The Greater Fool - The next 48 may answer the question: is this it? The blow-off phase of a housing market that cannot possibly last? In the next two days the Van and GTA real estate boards will drop their stats on a breathless, virus-weary nation. Plus the other hot spots – Victoria, Halifax, Montreal, Squamish, Tillsonburg, Saint John, […]
April 30th, 2021 | The Landing
The Greater Fool - As of yesterday 144 million Americans had received at least one hit of vaccine. That’s 43% of the population. Of those almost 100 million are fully vaxed with the one-shot J&J stuff or doubled-dosed with an MRA jab. Biden said he wanted 200 million inoculations within 100 days of being elected. That sounded impossible. But […]
April 29th, 2021 | Buy Pants
The Greater Fool - A social phenom, wrought by the virus, has rocked real estate. Thus, houses in Woodstock, Kamloops, Windsor and Sechelt have gone nuts. Lots of people think they’ll never have to visit the office again. So they moved to the boonies where real estate was cheap. And that’s made houses everywhere go parabolic. WFH has been […]
April 28th, 2021 | Making It
The Greater Fool - Yesterday this odd blog veered into the world of vehicle turntables, wall-to-wall marble and unknown pneumatic bathtub babes. So let’s return to earth. Apparently there are still some normal people left, trying to scratch out satisfying lives in a world of extremes. Like Courtney. “Your blog has helped my husband and I turn our finances […]
April 27th, 2021 | The Haters
The Greater Fool - Trump called it the ‘China virus’. Then the ‘Kung Flu’. And so anti-Asian racism truly ignited. It was okay to blame them. The president did. Since then the push-back has been palpable after thousands of reported hate incidents. Sadly, most of those in Canada happened in one province. You know which one. Reading this blog […]
April 26th, 2021 | It’s Coming
The Greater Fool - It’s been a week now since the feminist, gender-neutral, anti-racist, pro-family, indigenous-friendly, BIPOC-supportive, child-centric, inclusionary and diverse budget for all Canadian peoplekind. As you know, it spent up a storm. Deficits to the horizon. Everybody gets a pony. Missing? New taxes to pay for this stuff. They come later. In fact, after the election which […]
April 25th, 2021 | The Retreat
The Greater Fool - Is our house lust now an economic threat? Should you lighten up on the maple in your portfolio because of rampant house-horniness? How is this possibly going to end well? Fidelity portfolio manager David Wolf made waves saying he’s dumping some Canadian exposure in his funds because idiots are paying extreme, unsustainable amounts for houses. […]
April 23rd, 2021 | FOMO 3.0
The Greater Fool - The virus news sucked this week. Now what? Ontario cases are looking worse than Doug Ford’s polling numbers. The ICUs are a mess and while the dosing has picked up, the slimy little variants are winning. Will Toronto’s five-month-long lockdown end soon? Nah, probably not. It’s a death knell for Main Street. In BC the […]
April 21st, 2021 | The Flip, Part Deux
The Greater Fool - Changes in the wind. Pay attention. The Bank of Canada is pulling back on the throttle. Finally. Weekly bond-buying that stood at an incredible $5 billion every seven days last year and dropped to $4 billion in the autumn is heading down to three. This means the ongoing suppression of interest rates in the bond […]
April 20th, 2021 | ‘The Market Has Flipped’
The Greater Fool - So Chrystia the Impaler turned out to be more of a Milquetoast Mama. The budget will be quickly forgotten, especially when it comes to pricing a house. Sorry, newbie would-be buyers, but the feds want real estate to run hot. That’s now clear. They did absolutely nothing to cool this sucker off, not even lip […]
April 19th, 2021 | The Shadow
The Greater Fool - Budget Day. This won’t take long, despite the fact the doc ran more than 720 pages and took two years to arrive. The feds are addicted to spending. No wonder grey Bay Streeter Bill Morneau couldn’t hack it any more. Chrystia and Justin are taking deficit and debt to levels nobody ever thought possible. The […]
April 18th, 2021 | Bringing up Baby
The Greater Fool - When people have babies they’re swimming in expectations, obligations and hormones. Those are the prime days of vulnerability. The insurance guys descend, prey on emotion and walk off with nice commissions on needless policies. Realtors have a field day selling people debt and deeds even though the kid would be a happy renter. But perhaps […]
April 16th, 2021 | To The Core
The Greater Fool - Just three more sleeps before B-Day. Will Chrystia and Justin drop the hammer on housing? Nibble around the edges? Throw gas on the flames? The debate has been raging. Some bankers (RBC, BMO) are literally begging for a govy intervention to save people from themselves. Other financial heavyweights (TD, Scotia) argue things will self-correct, especially […]
April 15th, 2021 | Suck it Up
The Greater Fool - When not doing my day job, I moderate comments on this blog and try not to throw up. It’s a challenge. Here’s a recent example. April 14, 2021. The beginning of the end. When two of the largest banks, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, report earnings on the same day. Between these two banks, […]
April 14th, 2021 | Mill Day
The Greater Fool - Enough clucking from the wrinklies in steerage about their fat real estate gains, dividend torrents, thirsty underwear and dangerous conservative urgings. Welcome to Millennial Wednesday here at GreaterFool. Today let’s muse on some of the things the kids are worried about, which means the oldies can spend this valuable time washing their Def Leppard T-shirts […]
April 13th, 2021 | Patience
The Greater Fool - How do you possibly buy a house when bidding against maniacs? Or sell to one? This is perplexing. Stressful. Extreme times have brought extreme conditions and high emotions. “Here you are having to put your life’s one big decision of buying a home in 10 minutes of viewing time,” says a freaked-out buyer in Burnaby. […]
April 12th, 2021 | Froth
The Greater Fool - We talk much about the real estate bubble. It’s real. And dangerous. Fueled by emotional buyers, greed and fear. What about a financial bubble? Is that real? Also a looming risk? Lately equity markets have been at record levels. The Dow. The S&P. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, even Bay Street. New York markets are up more […]
April 11th, 2021 | Sheepless
The Greater Fool - There will be no capital gains tax inclusion rate increase in the budget next Monday. No creeping tax on realized home equity, either. And no wealth or inheritance tax. That’s the will of the Liberal grassroots, as expressed in the policy conference just completed. Add to that comments by the federal housing minister (‘no capital […]
April 9th, 2021 | Is that it?
The Greater Fool - Was that just a first warning shot over the realtors’ bow? Or the only volley? Yesterday the federal bank cop upped the stress test rate, effective June 1st. Now anyone seeking an uninsured home loan has to prove the ability to carry payments at (a) the market rate +2%, or (b) at 5.25%, whichever hurts […]