- the source for market opinions


February 28, 2021 | Carbon Trading: Opportunity and Obstacles

With its energy exports to Asia reducing world-wide emissions, Canada could benefit from an international carbon credit trading agreement. But flawed carbon accounting and insufficient liquidity in the international market stand in the way.   Suppose a company in Canada was to produce the world’s cleanest LNG with the lowest emissions. Suppose it then sells […]

February 28, 2021 | Reset, Part deux

It might not be exciting as watching the latest version of Seal Team, but the bond market show has been just as full of blood and grit. On Friday five-year Canadas zipped briefly about 1%. Wow. That’s a three-fold increase in four months. It’s a half-point surge in two weeks. And while the yield backed off […]

February 28, 2021 | Why Weimar-Style Inflation Is Nearly Impossible

The global credit-blowout has stoked fears of a money-printing catastrophe like the one that wrecked Germany’s economy a hundred years ago, planting the seeds of World War II.  However, even a cursory look at the Weimar hyperinflation of 1921-23 reveals why it is extremely unlikely to happen again, especially on a global scale.  It was […]

February 28, 2021 | Grantham: A Historic Market Bubble

A worthwhile hour-long discussion on our historic market bubble. Jeremy Grantham is the Long-Term Investment Strategist and Co-Founder at GMO. We cover the three key signs of a bubble, why Jeremy believes we are in a bubble right now and how it’s being led by retail rather than institutional investors: “This bubble is more impressive […]

February 28, 2021 | Doug Noland: “Fed Credibility Is Evaporating Along With Bond Prices”

Doug Noland is out with his latest Credit Bubble Bulletin, following a week in which some of the things he’s been warning about began to happen. Definitely read the whole thing (especially the exchange between Representative Warren Davidson and Fed Chair Jerome Powell). But in the meantime here’s a brief excerpt: Global bond markets have […]

February 28, 2021 | The Great Jobs Reset

We are almost through February and (knocking on wood) the US COVID-19 situation is improving daily. The B117 and other variants haven’t yet made a big impact. Possibly they will, but as time passes more people are getting at least partial protection through vaccines. The “race” I’ve described seems to be going the way we […]

February 27, 2021 | Look North for Canada’s future

Northern communities are increasingly ready to play their part, contribute and benefit from this new era, writes Sean Willy. In the 1850s, the call to action that held promise and purpose was Go West. Now, in this decade, it’s time for a new direction: Canadians need to Look North, and support North, for the future […]

February 27, 2021 | This Week in Money

February 27, 2021 | Small Business Prospects Darken with Rising Debt

Meanwhile, in the real economy, where companies with fewer than 100 employees are the largest economic driver, employing two-thirds of Canada’s private labour force, survival prospects are getting worse.  See Small businesses rack up loans to survive: The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) estimates that, based on a recent survey of its members, about seven […]

February 27, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For February 27, 2021

Interest rates surge higher: speculative bubbles pop. US Treasury 10-year bond yields hit a record low ~0.52% early last August (as gold hit a record high) and then trended higher for several months. This year, the trend accelerated and then surged higher, with the 10-year yield briefly touching 1.61% on Thursday following a dismal 7-year […]

February 26, 2021 | Is Biden Back in the Basement?

Joe Biden appears to be the first president to skip doing a State of the Union Address which is typically done by the end of February by tradition. However, it is not uncommon that a president skips the State of the Union Address during the year in which they were inaugurated. Both Washington and John […]

February 26, 2021 | The Federal Reserve is Both Arsonist and Firefighter

The stance of the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, as confirmed publicly this week, is for continued support for the economy, as 10 million jobs are still missing. A year ago the Fed lit a fire under prices for assets like stocks with its expansion of credit and extremely low interest rates. At some point […]

February 26, 2021 | Munger on SPACs, ‘Free’ Trading, Bankers and Bitcoin

The 2-hour live stream with 97-year old Charlie Munger yesterday (youtube clip here) was slow-moving but still a breath of fresh air for the few remaining souls not intoxicated with speculative manias, brokers and investment bankers.  A couple of my favourite quotes: “The investment banking profession will sell shit so long as shit can be […]

February 26, 2021 | What’s Next for Canada’s Water?

Canada boasts an impressive abundance of water resources, but jurisdictional overlap and over-regulation are drying up opportunities. As the federal government plans a new Canada Water Agency, stakeholders urge greater consultation. Thirty-odd years ago, there was much talk of exporting vast quantities of water from Canada to the US. Proponents spoke of tankers carrying fresh […]

February 26, 2021 | The Reset?

Don’t mess with the bond market. This omniscient blog has told you for weeks the Covid-created crazy-low interest thing wouldn’t last. Now we know. In the last few days economic, virus and vaccine news resulted in a “flash spike” in rates that will ripple through portfolios, mortgages and real estate. The yield on a benchmark […]

February 26, 2021 | Well This Looks Disturbingly Familiar

Last March, the financial markets were rocked by a disease that public health officials defined as a pandemic. Stocks and gold both tanked, and the locked-down economy went into free-fall. Here’s the Nasdaq … … and gold: This flash-crash was brutal but ultimately short-lived, as the world’s governments immediately stepped in with tens of trillions […]

February 26, 2021 | Commodity Boom Expected If Stock Markets Crash

Shrinking Hedge Funds Exposing Dud Assets

February 25, 2021 | House Passes the Equality Act which Still Allows Discrimination

The House of Representatives passed legislation that prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex, sexual orientation, and gender identity, though it faces an uncertain future in the Senate. The legislation passed on a 224-204 vote which was mostly along with a party-line vote. Three Republicans voted with all Democrats.  The bill is one of Biden’s top […]

February 25, 2021 | Red Tape Hurts Investment in Canada

The biggest hold-up is split processes, both provincial and federal, whether it’s cutting permits for forestry or mining assessments. Walter Cobb explains. Red tape and I don’t get along very well at all. And it’s not good for my city, my region, my province or the country as a whole. Our region and province are […]

February 25, 2021 | Higher Yields and Commodity Prices Intensify Recessions

Commodity prices and inflation expectations (below since 1995) have been following government and central bank stimulus flows higher over the past six months.  This is no all-clear sign for risk markets or the economy—quite the opposite.   Treasury yields have moved higher for the ride. From a low of .43% on August 20, 2021, Canada’s […]

February 25, 2021 | Even with Bells Ringing, This Top Will Be Tough to Short

They don’t ring a bell at the top of bull markets, as the saying goes, but perhaps this time it will be different.  Indeed, everysentient guru and talking head who is not shilling for Wall Street is properly bearish, and even the chimpanzees who make their living rotating Other People’s Money into flavor-of-the-month investment themes […]

February 25, 2021 | The Young & the Pooched

In case you’ve been arousing yourself with MLS temptations lately and missed the big news, here’s a recap. Six out of six big Canadian banks have posted fat profits, beat the Street and slashed their loan-loss provisions. In the middle of a pandemic and recession, what does this mean? Simply that the virus is so […]

February 25, 2021 | What Will Next Market Correction Look Like?

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February 25, 2021 | We’re Entering 70’s Style Commodities Super Cycle

Why the Fed will fight to keep interest rates down

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