- the source for market opinions


July 30, 2020 | Generalist Investors Double-Edged Sword for Gold and Silver

My research on Robinhooders getting involved in the monetary metals space has generated a huge amount of interest. And concern. Long-time gold bugs don’t trust young, momentum-chasing investors to stick with gold and silver—let alone the stocks. This is not without good reason; by definition, generalists are not gold bugs. Those of us who’ve been expecting this […]

July 23, 2020 | It’s Not Time to Sell—But This Could Tell Us When It Is

I’m as bullish as anyone about the price of gold and silver. But with gold within kissing distance of $1,900 and an all-time-high as I type, some folks holding large, unrealized gains are wondering when the top will be. And how will we know? As a rational, disciplined speculator, I have to say that we’ll […]

July 22, 2020 | The Big Unanswered Question

Let’s step back from the debates raging among resource investors and consider the big, unanswered question. I’m not talking about whether silver is better than gold. Or if either of those metals’ next moves are up or down… or if uranium will finally have its day in the sun as well… or if copper and […]

July 16, 2020 | Insider Trading: Not Always Good or Bad

Astute and observant readers write to me from time to time to ask if the CEO of XYZ Exploreco selling shares is a reason to sell the stock ourselves. Conversely, some want to know if the VP for exploration buying shares is a signal that we should buy. Insiders, after all, would know if a […]

July 15, 2020 | Why Not Go All In?

A thoughtful reader asked me a great question the other day: Why shouldn’t a gold bug who thinks gold is going to $5,000 and silver to $100—or more—go all in now? The quick and easy answer is that many gold bugs who thought similarly in 2011 did exactly that—and got wiped out. On the other […]

July 8, 2020 | Endgame Guidance

With gold hitting nine-year highs this month, readers are asking for guidance on what to do if our hopes—or perhaps even our dreams—for the yellow metal come true. What if gold really does go to $5,000 an ounce, $10,000… or higher? What if silver hits $100 and keeps rising? What are our endgame strategies? Before […]

July 2, 2020 | There’s a Powerful Reason to Be Bullish on Silver—And It’s Not Just Gold

Gold just broke $1,800 for the first time since 2011. Silver hit $18.65 today, for the first time… in a few weeks. What’s gives? Is silver is no longer a safe-haven asset like gold? Well, let’s have a look, starting with the big picture…     This long-term chart of the change in gold and […]

June 18, 2020 | The Rise of Robinhood Is About More than Reckless Kids—And Why This Matters

I’m not a day-trader. And I’m not a gambler. Despite my unabashed role in the market as an independent speculator, I’m mostly a value investor. But I use Robinhood. At least for simple transactions, it works and it’s free. So why not? Well, Robinhood has an aggressive growth agenda that has already run afoul regulators. […]

June 17, 2020 | Momentum Is Great—But No Reason to Buy or Sell

It’s one thing to pay more for a stock when a company has delivered added value, or to sell when it has lost value. It’s quite another to buy just because the price is rising, or sell because the price is falling. In the first case, if we respond in proportion to the change in […]

June 16, 2020 | Why Is Capital Structure So Important?

One of the first things I do when I start researching a new opportunity is to check the company’s capital structure. That includes cash and debt, for obvious reasons, but also the shares outstanding and how many warrants and options remain unexercised. Why? Because this provides valuable forensic data on management’s abilities and track record. […]

June 10, 2020 | What’s Wrong with Uranium? Nothing…

Uranium prices have corrected slightly. This—and some bearish commentary from other quarters—has prompted a wave of questions from readers asking for my current take. The short answer is yes, I remain very bullish. Let’s look at the chart first, and then I’ll tell you why.     I’m not a technical analyst, but anyone can […]

June 8, 2020 | The Most Leverage to Rising Metals Prices Without Margin

I’ve alerted The Independent Speculator clients to two private-placement opportunities over the last few days. It seems that higher monetary metals prices are bringing more of the world’s speculative cash back to bear on junior gold and silver explorers. This is creating opportunities, even for investors who can’t participate in the placements. What is a private placement, […]

June 4, 2020 | Marginal Producers: More Leverage to Higher Gold Prices?

I was 4-wheeling across the Nevada desert in a truck full of geologists some years ago, when someone asked which major gold producer I liked best. I don’t remember my answer, but I’m sure it would have been the most consistently profitable at the time. The geophysicist in the group disagreed. He argued in favor […]

May 27, 2020 | How to Navigate Uncharted Waters? A Compass Made of Gold…

All the “off the charts” economic and financial data we’ve seen this year makes it blindingly obvious to any honest observer that investors are in uncharted waters. Employment, manufacturing, retail sales… in stat after stat, the shutdown of the global economy has broken the trends economists include in their models. Just look at how exceptional […]

May 21, 2020 | Which is More Dangerous to Your Wealth: FOMO or FODO?

I’ve decided not to wait for another meltdown to buy some of the stocks atop my shopping list. However, most are trading significantly higher than they were before the March meltdown. This has caused several readers to write in ask about the changed reward/risk ratio this implies. In other words, how to deal with the […]

May 12, 2020 | Gold Stocks Are Still Cheap

Gold and silver stocks are finally catching a bid. Some of the better stories have even seen share prices rise on days when the metals retreated or traded sideways. Mr. Market seems to be warming to history’s longest-serving stores of value and mediums of exchange—and he’s looking for leverage. The stocks got whacked harder than […]

May 5, 2020 | Silver: Rumors of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

  There’s been a lot of what I see as fearmongering regarding silver. Some say it’s become just another industrial metal. The record gold-silver ratios we’re seeing are offered as evidence of this. I don’t agree. I understand that central banks buying tonnes of gold every year—but no silver—says that the major players no longer […]

April 22, 2020 | Optionality—The Lazy Speculator Strategy?

Legendary resource investor Rick Rule has long argued in favor of what he calls “optionality.” Equally legendary speculator Doug Casey calls this type of stock a “land bank” play. The idea is that we can make money betting on companies that have large deposits in the ground but are selling cheap because of low commodity […]

April 21, 2020 | The Most Important Takeaway From Oil Going Negative

In this historic period of broken charts and unprecedented government action, one of the most striking events yet was spot oil in the US turning negative yesterday.     That was an artifact of the front oil futures contract expiring today. The market essentially went “no bid,” and traders had to pay people to take […]

April 14, 2020 | If It’s True We’re All Modern Monetary Theorists Now, One Thing’s for Sure…

Whatever any of us thinks about the medical realities of the COVID-19 outbreak and government responses to it, these are the cards we’ve been dealt. Politicians left and right have turned pork-barrel politics into a pork freight train. All this “spend like there’s no tomorrow” thinking ignores the fact that there is a tomorrow. The […]

April 10, 2020 | Why I’m Still Not Buying…

I’ve written that the powers that be (TPTB) would pull out the stops to counter this year’s economic downturn, and they sure are. One of the talking heads on financial media said yesterday that the Fed’s new $2.3 trillion in bailouts amounts to a “too big, medium, or small to fail” policy. There’s no targeting; […]

April 8, 2020 | Technical Trap

History is not linear. Financial history doubly so. Investors should beware of thinking they know what will happen next. It’s precisely because I don’t know—and I don’t think anyone knows—what will happen next that I’m massing as much cash as I can. Of course, we do well to look to history for guidance. As the […]

April 7, 2020 | Perfect Uranium Storm Brewing…

Many uranium stocks have rallied since the March meltdown in global markets. I’d argue that they aren’t just rebounding with the markets, but because uranium itself is up sharply. This has important investment implications.     If uranium stocks were simply “enjoying” a dead-cat bounce alongside mainstream equities, I’d say that was a clear warning […]

April 2, 2020 | Bullion Shortage Panic—What to Do

An unsurprising consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak and the resulting flood of easy money (dwarfing even that of 2008) is a surge in demand for physical gold and silver. The spike in demand for bullion coins is so strong, some mints sold their entire inventories in record time. This has happened before, but this time, […]

March 31, 2020 | What to Do When No Company, No Commodity, and No Investor Is Immune

I look out my window and see that the streets below remain silent. Shops and cafés remain closed. Only essential businesses are open, and even those are curtailed to core functions. This is obviously devastating for the economy—and for the resource sector that provides it with raw materials. But there’s less obvious damage that goes […]

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