- the source for market opinions


January 14, 2019 | 7 Toxic Investments that Could Poison Your Portfolio in 2019

Over the weekend, my team and I published our first major work of current investment analysis, which is available for free to the general public. Considering the market carnage of late 2018, this seems prudent and timely. Our idea was that failed investment ideas are fairly obvious to all, but ideas that worked in the past—especially […]

January 9, 2019 | Oversold is Not the Same as Undervalued

When Wall Street was melting down towards the end of 2018, I frequently heard the talking heads on financial media saying the market was oversold. The term has a general meaning of price being below “true” value—whatever that is. In this sense, assuming there’s some reasonably objective measure of value, oversold does mean undervalued. But […]

January 8, 2019 | Trade War: Hope, Hype, and Reality

In the final quarter of 2018, the conflict between the US and its trading partners, especially China, became the #1 explanation for Wall Street tanking. Personally, I don’t think it takes much explaining for why markets should correct after a record bull run. But the trade war with China began showing visibly painful consequences. Big […]

January 4, 2019 | The Prediction Racket

This is a time of year when all sort of pundits make predictions. The S&P 500 is going to 3,000! Or 2,000! Gold is going to $1,400! Or $700! I confess that when I first started out in this business, I made gold price forecasts as well. I outgrew it. You see, no matter how […]

January 1, 2019 | 2019 Looks Like a Win-Win for Gold

I’ve been saying for a while now that the trade war is the big variable to keep an eye on in 2019. If it worsens, it will be bad for commodities prices in general. It will also likely hurt the US Dollar. That and the fear should push precious metals higher, as it has over last quarter. […]

December 18, 2018 | Mainstream Financial Media Just Doesn’t Get It

The talking heads are at it again—the majority, at least, seem to be genuinely puzzled as to why mainstream equities markets keep selling off. Fundamentals are strong, they say. Corporate profits are up. The US economy is doing fine. Consumer confidence is high. Unemployment is low. Clearly, Mr. Market has lost his marbles! That this […]

December 17, 2018 | What Is High Grade?

There seems to be a lot of confusion among resource investors regarding what is considered “high grade”—and not just because it varies by metal. I suspect there are aggressive promoters out there making things worse by describing projects that are not really high grade as “high grade for this region,” or “high grade for this […]

December 12, 2018 | Vanadium Prices are Falling—How to Profit

Ever since vanadium prices went vertical, I’ve been warning that the spike was not likely to be sustained. In my last update, in October, I said: I’m skeptical that a 30% increase in use in Chinese rebar justifies a 500% increase over recent vanadium price lows. I’d still think this way, even if China were […]

December 11, 2018 | Mainstream Financial Analysis Is a Threat to Your Wealth

Yesterday morning, on Yahoo Finance’s Live Morning Edition, Yahoo’s Myles Udland said that the First Amendment does not guarantee freedom of speech, but freedom to criticize the government. That’s par for the course if he went to public schools in the US and had politically correct teachers in college. But then he went on to […]

December 10, 2018 | Exit Strategies

An astute reader asked me about exit strategies going forward, specifically in light of the lack of one during the 2011 peak for resource stocks. That may seem like a problem for another day—a day that may seem far distant while resource markets are still down. But it’s good to think ahead. First, let me […]

December 8, 2018 | Palladium—I’m not a Bull

There’s talk that palladium may soon see higher prices than gold. I’m skeptical, but it could happen. If it does, I think it will be brief—and it won’t be because of permanent changes in either metal’s nature or market. Palladium becoming temporarily more expensive than gold won’t make it a monetary metal or a safe […]

December 5, 2018 | Pre-Market Crash Update—What I’m Doing Now

I’m not ready to sound the alarm and tell everyone that it’s time to head for the fallout shelters—but the bogeys on the radars of the broader equities markets are multiplying. I’ve removed the cover from the alarm button. I’ve already offered some guidance on what to do if we do get another major market […]

December 4, 2018 | Geophysics: What It Can and Can’t Tell Us

There’s an old joke in the exploration business. A mining company hires a geophysics company to survey their property. The president of the mining company looks at all the colorful diagrams that result and asks, “Okay, so where’s the deposit?” The geophysicist shrugs and replies, “Where do you want it to be?” I might chalk […]

December 3, 2018 | US-China Trade War—Hope Is Not a Basis for Speculation

Last Friday, I wrote: [S]ome sort of trade agreement between the US and China could be announced. Again, I can’t put odds on this, but it wouldn’t have to be much of an agreement to send global markets off to the races. Even an agreement to work harder on getting to an agreement would likely […]

November 30, 2018 | G-20 Summit: Expect Nothing, Don’t Be Surprised by Anything

Financial media have unleashed a torrent of words on what to expect from the G-20 Summit. From Russia and Ukraine on the brink of war to the Saudi prince no one wants to be seen with, there’s a lot to talk about. But it’s the meeting tomorrow night between Presidents Trump and Xi that most […]

November 29, 2018 | What Lee Harvey Oswald Can Teach Investors

It’s disturbing to suddenly find that one has something in common with the likes of Lee Harvey Oswald. Fortunately, the commonality is merely circumstantial: we both came to Minsk, Belarus and fell in love with a woman here. But it was still something to discover at dinner here in Minsk last night. After a fabulous […]

November 26, 2018 | Marijuana Blockchain—Double Bubble Trouble

A MarketWatch story about the collapse of India Globalization Capital (IGCC), a blockchain pot stock, caught my eye yesterday. The article details many red flags. My favorite was that a distributor’s store locations in major cities around the world all showed maps of Central Park in NYC, and, “Its address is listed as Sesame Street.” […]

November 20, 2018 | This Could Get Ugly—Very Ugly

The speed with which “This party can go on forever!” optimism on Wall Street is shifting to “The long-overdue bear is nigh!” terror is surprising—even to me, and I’ve been predicting it. This has me thinking about the long-delayed “exiting of the eye of the storm” my friend Doug Casey has been calling for. I’m […]

November 19, 2018 | Price vs. Value

A vital notion all investors—especially speculators—should be crystal clear on is the difference between price and value. In a perfect market with perfect information dealt with by perfect people, the two would be the same, on an aggregate basis. But none of these things are perfect in our world.  Consider what happens when a large, […]

November 15, 2018 | In Defense of Hard Money: A True Story

I first encountered a logical and persuasive defense of hard money in Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged. But long before then, I understood very well that gold and silver are valuable. It started with copper. You see, as a small boy, I started collecting pennies—which were still made of copper at the time. Once I […]

November 14, 2018 | The Naked Emperor, Cryptocurrencies, and the War on Cas

The end of fiat currency isn’t happening today. It probably won’t be tomorrow. But at some point it’s gonna be curtains for all these worthless little pieces of paper governments around the world have forced people to use as money. That day might have been much further in the future before bitcoin exposed the fact […]

November 13, 2018 | Poker with Doug Casey—Lessons in Successful Speculation

I’ve learned from legendary speculator Doug Casey for years—and played the occasional hand of poker with him along the way. In both settings, his instincts are uncanny. Of course, it’s really his years of experience, not any mystical instinct. But still, it’s impressive how often his decisions to hold, fold, or raise the bet turn […]

November 12, 2018 | The Speculator’s Greatest Enemy

I had a close encounter with road rage the other day. I was driving in heavy traffic on a multilane highway in San Juan. A car merged aggressively in front of the car in front of me. That car slammed on the brakes, so I had to as well. The guy behind me wasn’t paying […]

November 10, 2018 | Quick Case Study: The SilverCrest Trailing Stop Loss

Stop losses—systems that sell stocks if they fall by a given percentage—are a fine idea for normal stocks. When companies worth billions of dollars (or a trillion, nowadays) drop dramatically, it’s usually for a very specific reason. A stop-loss discipline gets investors out, limiting their potential losses.  Some systems calculate the volatility specific to an […]

November 6, 2018 | The #1 Commodity Play Today

I have a top commodity pick today, and it’s not what many people might think. That was the subject of my talk at the just-concluded 2018 New Orleans Investment Conference. What I like best about this speculation is that it doesn’t matter who wins the election. It doesn’t matter what happens with the trade war. It […]

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