- the source for market opinions


July 18, 2019 | Drink the Kool-Aid, and Your Portfolio Will Be Massacred

One of the most disturbing things about the 1978 Jonestown massacre was that many of the victims knew they were committing suicide. Apparently there were practice runs. People didn’t know if the Kool-Aid was poisoned or not. It was a test of commitment. Students of human psychology—which all investors should be—would do well to remember […]

July 17, 2019 | Silver Breakout—You Won’t Want to Miss It

On June 25, 2019, I wrote that silver’s day is coming, and urged readers to get ready for it. On July 11, I pointed out that silver had not yet broken out with gold, and was a relative bargain. The most common response has been to ask: “When will silver catch up with gold?” To […]

July 16, 2019 | US Uranium Meltdown: Market Error Is Golden Opportunity

As luck would have it, last Friday—the day after I published an article calling uranium stocks the best speculation in the resource sector—a wild market overreaction created some golden buying opportunities. Without citing any sources, an Australian paper reported that it “understood” that Donald Trump would reject a Section 232 petition for support by US […]

July 12, 2019 | US Uranium Plays Take a Hit—And That’s an Opportunity

US uranium plays are taking a big hit today, apparently based on a report from the Australian Financial Review that Donald Trump will not support the US uranium industry as requested in the DoC Section 232 petition. NOTE: The facts may change materially by the time you read this, so please check my Twitter account for updates in between […]

July 11, 2019 | What’s the Best Opportunity Today to Buy Low and Sell High?

Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in Congress sent prices on just about everything higher. Happy days again… But if fortunes are made buying low in order to sell high, which assets qualify as the best “buy low” opportunities today? Well, seeing the green across the board reminded me of the old “one of these things […]

July 9, 2019 | Gold Is Free-Market Money—We Can and SHOULD Profit From Delivering It

I believe that free markets are the most efficient and ethical way to organize human effort for the individual and common good. Please bear with me, because this has important practical implications not everyone has thought through. Accepting the free-enterprise system implies that markets—meaning the people, not the government—should determine what is used for money. […]

July 8, 2019 | No, a Giant Golden Asteroid Is NOT About to Crash the Market

NASA is advancing a mission to explore a metallic asteroid called 16 Psyche to launch in 2022. The immediate result is reporting by sloppy journalists, saying this “golden asteroid” will “make everyone on Earth a billionaire.” Somehow, the same articles say this will collapse commodity prices and perhaps the global economy as well. This is so obviously […]

July 1, 2019 | The Trade War, the Gold Correction, and the Opportunity

Saturday, Donald Trump announced a new ceasefire in the trade war between the US and China. He said the tariffs on $300 billion more of Chinese goods will not go into effect next week. The US also eased up on Huawei, which signals real willingness to negotiate with China. And as soon as gold started […]

June 25, 2019 | Silver’s Day Is Coming—Are You Ready?

Gold just broke out of years of imprisonment in the $1,300 range. Long-suffering gold bugs are breaking out the champagne, and some are cashing in. That’s great, but for investors still looking to make a lot of money, the key fact is that silver has not yet broken out. And silver’s track record tells us […]

June 24, 2019 | Gold Breakout: A Vital Perspective

After years of failed attempts to break out of its trading rut, gold finally did, shattering resistance that has held since 2013. Not only that, it breached the “psychologically important” $1,400 level. It looks to be consolidating before heading higher—possibly much, much higher. But all of this is in US dollar terms. The US has […]

June 21, 2019 | Gold Correction Is Likely—And An Opportunity

Gold broke the $1,400 level last night, and folks are breaking out the champagne. I was right about the probable impact the Fed would have on gold prices. My social media accounts are going nuts. I have more new readers today than I’ve had in any single day since I launched The Independent Speculator last year. […]

June 20, 2019 | Gold Breaks Out—What’s Next?

Every week, I see the talking heads on financial media explain why their predictions last week were wrong, and make new predictions for next week. Since there are no consequences when they get things wrong, the incentive is to sound clever and make bold predictions that make for good headlines and sell copy. This bias […]

June 18, 2019 | The Fed, China, the Markets, Optimism, and Reality

The talking heads on financial media are in overdrive today, flooding us with clever noise about what the Fed has to do, might do, and couldn’t possibly do. The consensus is, in my opinion, overly optimistic. On top of this, Trump’s tweet that he will meet with China’s Xi at the upcoming G20 summit has […]

June 13, 2019 | Attacks in Hormuz, Oil, and Gold

The attacks on two Japan-bound tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz this morning are the talk of the day. Oil prices shot up more than 3% on the news—as did gold and the US dollar—as one would expect. So is it time to speculate on oil? Not for me—not yet. Oil has already given back […]

June 11, 2019 | Profiting from the Herd Mentality

During my just-completed due diligence trip across five western states, I kicked lots of telltale rocks. I also saw ravens, eagles, sheep, cattle, one dead coyote, several clusters of wild mustangs, and many herds of pronghorn antelope.     The profusion of wildlife covering the most active mining regions in the US impressed me once […]

June 9, 2019 | Kicking Rocks is Hard Work—But Fun for Geologists and Speculators

Two subscribers to The Independent Speculator, my COO, and I been out in the field kicking rocks on behalf of readers this week. We’ve hit one, two, or three projects per day, scrambling over mountains and deserts in four western states so far. And we’ve seen some amazing geology along the way…     Independent […]

May 31, 2019 | Beware of Collateral Damage from Trump’s Mexico Tariffs: Canadian Miners

President Trump has announced new tariffs—on Mexican goods this time—to try to force Mexico to do more to stop the flow of illegal immigration into the US. Wall Street dropped sharply on the news—and gold did its job.     Whether or not one agrees with the appropriateness of Trump’s action, it’s part of a […]

May 29, 2019 | China Threatens Rare Earth Supply—Time to Speculate?

Multiple news sources report that China is threatening to “weaponize” its dominance of rare earth elements (REE) supply. These elements—particularly dysprosium and neodymium—are vital to many high-tech applications. The threat is potent, given that China has about 90% of the world’s REEs. Reuters and Yahoo Finance both quote the Chinese as saying, “Don’t say we didn’t warn […]

May 28, 2019 | Will Millennials Ever “Get” Gold?

A lot of the nonsense brought up by the #dropgold marketing campaign for Bitcoin, such as the claim that gold has no utility, is so clearly false, it’s tempting to just ignore it. To the degree that the gold industry and investors respond in public, the campaign achieves its goal: publicity. The silent treatment would […]

May 24, 2019 | ESG = Politically Correct Investing

Today’s fast-growing investment fad seems to be ESG investing. ESG stands for “environmental, social and governance,” the pillars of “sustainable” investing. Or so they say. To me, ESG is politically correct investing—and it’s going to cause a lot of well-meaning fools and their money to part ways. In my view, investing on any basis other […]

May 22, 2019 | “I’m Not a Gold Bug—You’re a Dollar Bug!”

I love the late great Richard Russell’s response when people called him a gold bug: “I’m not a gold bug—you’re a dollar bug!” I was lucky enough to meet him and see this line delivered with grace and humor. I’m reminded of it now because a very astute reader of mine just sent me a […]

May 15, 2019 | Putting Market Voting vs. Weighing Functions to Work for You

There’s an old Wall Street saying that in the short term, stock markets are voting machines and in the long term, they’re weighing machines. Experience shows this to be very true, extremely important, and almost completely ignored. By way of example, let’s look at the current Bitcoin rally. I recently tweeted that cryptos seem to […]

May 14, 2019 | Is It Time to Speculate on Oil?

Investors’ attention is so focused on the escalation of the US-China trade war, many seem to be missing the other escalation that could rock the world: the recent attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The sabotage attacks on four ships in the Strait of Hormuz last Sunday did get a lot of attention, and oil prices […]

May 10, 2019 | Trade War Heats Up—What to Do

The US increased tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods today. Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on more than $300 billion more. The Internet and airwaves are full of experts telling you what it means and financial fortunetellers predicting various outcomes. Truth is, nobody really knows what will happen—not even […]

May 9, 2019 | Mining for Gold Nuggets in Financial Statements

  A reader asked for tips on parsing the jargon in company financial statements to get at what we really need to know. Seems like a good idea. But first, I want to say that being able to get into workshop topics like this is one of the great benefits of going to conferences like […]

Next Page »