- the source for market opinions


January 16, 2020 | Red Metal Rising

Copper prices just hit eight-month highs. Given the many headwinds for the global economy, my immediate reaction was cautious. The headlines about the cooling Chinese economy have been particularly strong arguments for caution. Copper and Chinese GDP growth have had a very strong correlation for decades. That’s why I tweeted that I want to see the Chinese […]

January 9, 2020 | $1,600 Gold Slips Away—But Just for Now

The Dow has 29,000 in its sights this fine Thursday. Gold has slumped all the way from $1,610 two days ago to $1,550 as I type. Gold and silver stocks are down sharply and some precious metals investors are wringing their hands as Mr. Market seems to be ignoring fiscal, economic, and geopolitical reality—again. My […]

January 6, 2020 | QE or Not QE — That Is Not the Question

The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that the Fed just added another $76.9 billion in “temporary” liquidity to the overnight intra-bank “repo” lending market. The Fed insists this is not quantitative easing, prompting some to call it “Stealth QE.” But whether this action technically constitutes QE or not doesn’t really matter. What truly does matter […]

January 3, 2020 | Assassination Fallout—One Clear Bet

Last night, the US assassinated a top Iranian general. He’s described as a terrorist mastermind—and the second most powerful man in that country. Iran has, of course, vowed revenge. Gold and oil prices surged on the news. Most stock markets around the world dropped sharply. The news is an important reminder of the powerful impact […]

January 2, 2020 | #1 Threat to Your Money Today

First comes Tax Loss Season, then the Holiday Season, and now it’s Forecast Season. For the next week or two, expect the airways and your inbox to be flooded with predictions for 2020 and the next decade. There’s no harm in looking forward to imagine what may be. There’s a great deal of benefit from […]

December 30, 2019 | The Biggest Winner of an End to the Trade War?

I’ve heard financial talking heads attributing Wall Street’s December rally to the end of the trade war. I think it’s got a lot more to do with the Fed moving to stealth QE and negative real rates—and setting the bar quite high for even considering a change in policy. This has very important implications for […]

December 27, 2019 | WARNING: Rare Earths Are Not Rare—But They Are Difficult

  The US-China trade war seems to have reminded investors that China supplies 90% of the world’s rare earth elements (REEs). This vital supply has been restricted before, as the Chinese reminded us all a few months ago, prompting the US military to invest in building REE processing facilities in the US. No surprise, then, […]

December 23, 2019 | Uranium: Putting My Money Where My Keyboard Is

I’ve heard from long-suffering uranium speculators who’ve given up hope of any help from Donald Trump for the uranium market. The president’s Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG) was supposed to report last October, then November… and now December is almost gone with no official word. I understand the frustration. But Trump doesn’t care how long […]

December 18, 2019 | You Can’t Kiss All the Girls…

My friend Doug Casey warns investors about getting carried away buying stocks, saying, “You can’t kiss all the girls.” This is a great way of summing up important advice; one must focus so one can develop expertise and execute well. And you can’t fret about the ones you don’t kiss—because no one can kiss them […]

December 17, 2019 | There’s More Than One Way to Make Money on a Market Melt-Up

It seems that the de-escalation of the trade war—and perhaps the prospect of an orderly Brexit—have Mr. Market convinced that it’s clear skies and calm seas for the rest of the year and on into 2020. It’s “risk on.” Wall Street indices are hitting new highs. Talking heads on financial media are grinning as they […]

December 10, 2019 | If an Investment Service Is Free, You Are the Product

This “you are the product” saying is a new meme that’s emerged from the era of social media. But the same thing’s been true for decades in finance, if not centuries—or the entire history of money. When short sellers publish free reports on how terrible a company run by crooks is, it’s not because they’re […]

December 9, 2019 | Who is to Blame for the Resource Company Death Sentence?

The issue of share buybacks is a hot topic among many investors today. It’s even become a political issue, with prominent politicians crusading against evil corporations using tax-cut windfalls to buy their shares back, instead of hiring more workers. I view this political grandstanding as nothing more than American populism. Management’s task is to provide […]

December 6, 2019 | The Upside Maximizer

Back when Porter Stansberry bought a majority interest in Casey Research, we had a meeting about my work. He pretty much told me to keep doing the great job I was doing, and asked what resources I need to do it the best I could—which he then provided. His one critique was to ask why […]

December 2, 2019 | Country Risk Assessment for Resource Investors: Mexico

The drug war is heating up in Mexico. Narco gun battles and massacres of women and children are making headlines. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) released the son of convicted drug kingpin El Chapo rather than go to open war with his cartel. President Trump says he’ll designate the drug cartels as terrorist […]

November 29, 2019 | The Myth of the Service Economy—And Why It Matters

Imagine what it was like back in the days of prehistoric hunter-gatherer cultures. Most economic activity—by far—would be subsistence production at the family level. What internal and external trade there might be would be almost entirely barter of surplus production. You smoke more mammoth meat than you need, you can trade it for spearheads from […]

November 26, 2019 | How to Buy the Dips

“Buy the dips” is a common expression in the investment business. I use it myself. But what exactly does it mean? Well, one size does not fit all, of course, but I may be able to help… First, some basics: The idea of buying the dips is to use normal volatility to get better prices […]

November 25, 2019 | What It Means to Be a Contrarian

While traveling after the New Orleans show, I got to spend a little time with my uncle Bob. He’s one of the most successful businessmen I know. Not coincidentally, Uncle Bob is also one of the calmest, most disciplined, and most thoughtful people I know. He saw that my business cards say “Contrarian Discipline Delivers” […]

November 23, 2019 | Looking for the Next “Bitcoin in 2017” Opportunity?

Bitcoin just hit a six-moth low, dropping under $7,000 earlier today. This has me thinking that folks who made a bundle on bitcoin in 2017 may soon be more keenly looking for the “next Bitcoin” speculation. What’s really interesting about about this is that it would include a lot of younger people than one would […]

November 22, 2019 | Tax Loss Season = Opportunity for Gold and Silver Investors

Precious metals are still in “correct and consolidate” mode, which has many resource investors worried. With Tax Loss Season heating up, I can’t blame them. But I do see this situation as a terrific opportunity, and I’ll tell you why. To me, the critical factor is that—whatever Powell says—the Fed’s easy money policy is in […]

November 19, 2019 | What We Can Learn from the Death of the Unicorn

I’ve been thinking a lot about the spectacular unicorn failures on Wall Street this year. The implosion of WeWork may be the final nail in the coffin, but the Uber and Lyft debacles seem more significant to me. I have to wonder if anyone at WeWork investor SoftBank lost their jobs over their multibillion-dollar due […]

November 8, 2019 | Uranium Deadline: Don’t Bet the Farm—But Don’t Miss Out

‘Twas the night before the NFWG report, when all through the White House, all manner of creatures were stirring…” … but honestly, most had other things on their minds. I’ve been traveling all week, but this is pressing, so here’s a quick update on Trump’s Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG), which is following up on […]

October 30, 2019 | How Does a World Reserve Currency Recover from Crisis?

When people lose confidence in paper money, an irreversible slide ensues. That makes sense, since the paper actually is worthless. Legal tender laws can force people to use fiat currencies, but not to value them. So how does hyperinflation end? Badly, of course. But more specifically… When the Yugoslavian dinar went into hyperinflation in the […]

October 29, 2019 | My Version of the Barbell Strategy

“It’s better to risk 10% of your portfolio speculating on 100% gains than to risk 100% of your portfolio investing for 10% gains.” That’s what my friend Doug Casey always says. It’s another way of looking at the “barbell strategy” advocated by noted trader Nassim Taleb in his outstanding book, Skin in the Game. The idea […]

October 28, 2019 | X Marks the Spot—But It’s Knowing Where to Put It That Matters

A reader questioned me on the value of my services, and I thought my answer could be of interest and use to others. So… There’s a story of a repairman called in to fix a problem Henry Ford had with a big machine at his plant. Some versions of the story say it was a […]

October 25, 2019 | Latin Spring = Danger for Investors

Massive protests have erupted in Chile, Ecuador, and Bolivia. The potential for more in other Latin American countries has some folks calling it the Latin Spring. The causes of the outbreaks vary, but there’s a common thread and it spells danger for investors—and everyone.   Is It a Spring? The original “spring” uprising—the Prague Spring […]

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