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December 15, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – December 15th

There have been 3 major market events since the beginning of October: 1) stock markets virtually everywhere have been hammered, 2) the US Dollar has been rising against nearly every other currency and, 3) crude oil has tumbled more than 30%. During that pivotal 1st week of October Fed Chair Powell essentially told the market that […]

December 8, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – December 8th

The major US stock indices opened sharply higher this week (after closing higher every day last week) but within hours of the opening the indices turned tail and fell like a stone…taking out last week’s low by Thursday morning. That high speed tumble (Dow futures down >1,800 points in 4 days) was followed by a scorching […]

December 1, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – December 1st

Markets are bracing for a possible huge “gap” opening…up or down…Monday morning following the Trump/Xi dinner at the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires Saturday evening. I expect to see a tsunami of political/market analysis Sunday. The major US stock indices have closed higher every day this week…perhaps hoping that Trump and Xi will  “tone down” […]

November 24, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – November 24th

WTI crude oil tumbled to it’s lowest price in over a year…closing lower for 7 consecutive weeks. On October 3rd WTI hit a 4 year high ~$77 as the market feared a supply shortage especially given the American sanctions on Iran. This week WTI traded below $51…a 33% tumble from the October highs as the market feared a supply […]

November 17, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Nov 17th

Bonds and gold rallied and the US Dollar dropped this week as Fed Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Clarida both signaled that the Fed may be less aggressive raising interest rates next year than the market had expected.  They both saw signs of slowing global growth. The US Dollar Index had jumped to new 17 month highs […]

October 27, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – October 27th

Stock market price action was an emotional rollercoaster this week with big intraday price swings. The DJIA fell ~2,500 points (9.5%) from All Time Highs in early October to Friday’s lows. Stock markets around the world were under pressure as they keyed off American markets which were “catching down” to the weakness many other markets had […]

October 20, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – October 20th

The major American stock indices hit All Time Highs around the beginning of October and have fallen as much as 7-10% since. I’ve been anticipating a correction (if not more) in those indices for the past couple of months as other major stock indices around the world fell and as US interest rates kept rising. I […]

October 13, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – October 13th

Stock markets around the world tumbled this week. The DJIA touched new All Time Highs last week (Oct 3) but was down over 2000 points at this week’s lows. In just a few days the DJIA gave back all of the gains made since July. Trading volumes on the week were the largest since the DJIA […]

October 6, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – October 6th

Interest rates surged higher this week with nominal and real yields on the US 10 year treasury hitting 7 year highs. Bond prices tumbled, the US Dollar (USD) rallied and global stock markets fell as a “shakeout” hit speculative excesses across markets. Market sentiment quickly turned from “risk on” to “risk off.” My trading accounts are currently […]

September 22, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Sept 22

“Risk On” is the prevailing market mood and it’s been showing up everywhere: Global stock markets have been rallying since their early September lows. The leading American indices (S&P, DJIA, DJT) have made new All Time Highs, the Euro Stoxx index is up ~5% , the Nikkei is up ~7%, and even the EM stock indices have […]

September 15, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Sept 15

Trade Wars with China: Bloomberg reported mid-day Friday that Trump had instructed aides to proceed with tariffs on about $200B more of Chinese products. Market reaction was surprisingly muted. US stocks fell back (a bit) and the US Dollar rallied (a bit) on the news. Trump’s instructions seem to run counter to Mnuchin’s comments earlier […]

August 18, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – August 18

Emerging Markets, which have borrowed trillions of US Dollars,  have been in the spotlight with some EM currencies down hard. For the past few months I have referred to the weakness in 2nd and 3rd tier currencies as the “stealth strength” of the US Dollar. I think we are at the point in the cycle where capital flows […]

August 11, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – August 11

Contagion risk inspired a sharp swing to “risk off” across asset classes this week. The US Dollar Index (USDX) surged to 14 month highs while the “stealth strength” of the US Dollar against 2nd and 3rd tier currencies was spectacular. The Turkish Lira (TRY) has been weakening against the USD for the past 5 years but the rate of […]

August 4, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – August 4th

Summer doldrums…low volume choppy price action with the occasional headline driven flurry of activity. I was away late last week for a family event, started this week flat, did a little in-and-out trading and ended the week flat. I’m expecting some serious market moves once we get into September so I’m watching several markets now […]

July 21, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – July 21

Trump “is not happy” with the Fed raising interest rates…claiming that rising rates hurt the American economy and cause the US Dollar to rise…that a rising US Dollar makes America less competitive. My good friend Dr. Martin Murenbeeld, (www.Murenbeeld.com ) has long argued that the best way to correct the huge American trade deficit is to drive […]

July 14, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – July 14

My trading this week: I started the week flat…waiting for good risk/reward setups to develop. On Wednesday I shorted CAD when it rallied on the Bank of Canada interest rate increase, shorted WTI when it failed to rally on a huge American inventory draw down and shorted EUR as it reversed from Tuesday’s rally. WTI […]

July 7, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – July 7

What I’m doing: I started this week long CAD and AUD against the USD. I was expecting the USD to correct after strong gains the past couple of months. I covered my positions Friday after the employment reports as the USD fell to 3 week lows and CAD rallied nearly 2 cents from the 1 […]

June 28, 2018 | Canadian Dollar Event Risk – June 27th

Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is giving a speech this afternoon (12:15pt) titled “Let Me Be Clear: From Transparency to Trust and Understanding” that will be scrutinized closely for any hints as to what the Bank of Canada will do with rates at its next meeting on July 11th. It will be so closely watched […]

June 23, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – June 23rd

What I’m doing: I took profits Thursday on my short NZD/USD position and bought AUD/USD looking for a short term correction in the USD rally. AUD looks really oversold on technical and sentiment indicators. I also bought YEN Thursday thinking it might rally for 2 reasons, 1) short term USD weakness and 2) it might catch a […]

June 2, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – June 2nd

Market Psychology had a classic “Risk Off” profile early this week as the “existential crisis” unfolding in Europe rallied the safe havens (USD, Swissy, Yen, Treasuries, German bunds) while the Euro, stocks, commodities and peripheral European bonds were dumped.  As the “existential crisis” diminished later in the week everything (with the exception of crude) reversed. EUR/USD hit […]

May 28, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 26th

EUR/USD has dropped from over 1.25 to below 1.17 (~7%) in the last 9 weeks…closing this week at 7 month lows as political/economic developments in Italy herald a potentially existential crisis for Europe as “contagion” fears start to creep into the market. The EUR/USD 1.25 Inflection Point on Feb 16/18 came after the Euro had rallied against the USD for 15 […]

May 19, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 19th

“It doesn’t matter until it matters and then it really matters!” was how I began my April 21 TD notes. My point was that rising American interest rates were REALLY starting to matter in the foreign exchange world…and that was going to drive the USD higher. The USD index is now at a 5 month high, up […]

May 12, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 12th

President Trump will reapply sanctions against Iran. China has been told to reduce their trade surplus with America by $200 Billion within 2 years. Whether these are tactical bargaining positions or a line in the sand, the President is on a roll as the politically incorrect “disrupter” who is doing what he said he would do […]

May 5, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 5th

Three Main Themes: My trading over the past few months has been in line with three main themes: 1) US interest rates had been too low for too long and were going up, probably more than the market was pricing and definitely more than interest rates in other countries, 2) the US Dollar got too low […]

April 28, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – April 28th

The US Dollar surged higher again this week as American interest rates continued to rise. The 2 year US Treasury yield is at 10 year highs…the 10 year Treasury yield hit 7 year highs (3.04%) mid-week before dropping back below 3% by Friday. My headline last week, “It doesn’t matter until it matters…and then it really […]

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