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November 27, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For November 27, 2021

Risk Happens Fast The S+P 500 hit All-Time Highs on Monday’s opening – but closed 165 points (3.5%) lower by Friday’s close. The daily S+P futures volume on Friday was the highest since early October – and was probably the highest EVER for a Thanksgiving Friday. The DJIA closed at a 7-week low, down ~1,800 […]

November 20, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For November 20, 2021

A handful of BIG cap tech stocks make all the difference The DJIA and the small-cap indices closed lower for two consecutive weeks (the DJIA fell as much as 1,000 points from last week’s high to this week’s low) – but the Nasdaq and the S+P 500 indices hit new All-Time Highs this week. The […]

November 13, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For November 13, 2021

The hotter-than-expected US CPI report rocked the markets Wednesday morning Gold spiked nearly $50 within 90 minutes of the CPI report and ended the week ~$100 (6%) above last week’s lows. Speculators in the gold futures market were net long a modest-sized position (relative to their position the past few years) as of Oct 26. I expect […]

November 6, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For November 6, 2021

Stocks soar to New All-Time Highs The worries that caused the major stock indices to slump ~6% in September have been forgotten – bullish sentiment has returned BIG TIME, and the indices have surged to All-Time Highs with the DJIA and the S+P rising for the past five consecutive weeks. Since early October, the DJIA […]

October 30, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For October 30, 2021

Tesla soars – stock indices hit new All-Time Highs Tesla’s market cap was ~$1.14 Trillion at the end of October- up ~$340B for the month. $340B is more than the total market cap of 481 of the companies in the S+P 500. Massive buying of (very) short-dated call options helped accelerate this week’s rally following […]

October 23, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For October 23, 2021

New All-Time Highs for the leading stock indices – but “rotation” rules. The S+P and the DJIA came roaring back and hit new All-Time highs after that tiny 6% dip in September (capital flows show that retail and hedge funds Bought-The-Dip), but the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell fell short of making new highs. […]

October 16, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For October 16, 2021

Commodity Indices surge to new 7-year highs Surging energy prices are driving the principle commodity indices to new seven-year highs. The energy-heavy Goldman Sachs index has risen for eight consecutive weeks – up 18% from the mid-August Key Turn Date – up ~170% from the 17-year lows in April 2020. European Natgas prices quadrupled from […]

October 9, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For October 9, 2021

Energy prices are smoking hot The Chart Of The Week is UK Natural Gas. Nearby futures hit All-Time highs in August – then quadrupled from there by early this week – only to fall in half by Friday (Putin indicated that Russia could increase supply.) New York Natural Gas nearby futures more than quadrupled from last year’s […]

October 2, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For October 2, 2021

Major stock indices drop to 10-week lows – then bounce The most significant broad market decline since Biden’s election (S+P and DJIA down ~6%, Nasdaq 100 down ~7.5%) happened right on schedule. For the previous 35 years, September (especially the 2nd half) has typically been the weakest month of the year – followed by the […]

September 25, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For September 25, 2021

Evergrande Monday The Dow Jones futures contract dropped >1,300 points from last Friday’s highs to Monday’s lows and then rallied back > 1,300 points to Thursday’s highs – a ~2,600 point round trip in five trading sessions. Here’s my take: The leading stock indices had rallied >100% from the March 2020 lows without so much as […]

September 18, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For September 18, 2021

  Stock indices ended a choppy week right on their lows The major American stock indices are down ~2.5% from their All-Time Highs, with the S+P closing Friday just a hair under the 50 DMA, for only the 3rd time since the Pfizer vaccine announcement on November 9, 2020. Is it time to Buy The […]

September 11, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For September 11, 2021

Stock indices trended lower all week to end the week right on their lows. Option Vol spiked higher In late August, my primary trading view was that the summer’s complacent, pro-risk market sentiment was due for a correction. “Everybody” was a buyer. Stock index option Vol was at the rock-bottom lows of the past few […]

September 4, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For September 4, 2021

Powell’s “Substantial Further Progress” – is not happening yet – and neither is the taper The combination of much weaker-than-expected employment and consumer confidence reports means that the Fed will delay the taper. Price action was dull all week – nobody wanted to strap on a major position given the risk that markets could react […]

August 28, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For August 28, 2021

Another week – another new All-Time High for the S+P, the Nasdaq and the TSE Jay Powell’s much anticipated Jackson Hole speech did nothing to cool the market’s enthusiasm – so the bounce back from last week’s lows continued with the S+P now up ~20% YTD, up ~105% from last year’s lows. For months, there […]

August 21, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For August 21, 2021

Being rich is no longer glorious in Xi’s China In the 1980s, under Deng Xiaoping, “To get rich is glorious” defined the zeitgeist in China as the country embraced capitalism with Chinese characteristics. Not so, these days, under Xi Jinping, who has been on the warpath against the rich and famous with rules and regulations […]

August 14, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For August 14, 2021

Choppy price action in mid-summer markets Gold and silver fell sharply Friday of last week (August 6th) as the US Dollar surged higher following the much-stronger-than-expected US employment report. But the real fireworks happened when markets opened in the Far East on Sunday afternoon, August 8th. Gold tumbled ~$85 from Friday’s closing levels, while silver […]

August 7, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For August 7, 2021

Sleepy summer market reacts to strong employment data The stronger-that-expected US employment report on Friday was the key event of the week – in that it strengthened the idea that the Fed’s required “substantial further progress” was in the process of being met. Therefore, the report pulled forward the timeline for the Fed to begin […]

July 31, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For July 31, 2021

Is the market plunge in China a Black Swan? American Big Tech has been pulling the broad American share indices higher; in China, Big Tech has been pulling the broad Chinese share indices lower. Chinese regulators have been clamping down (Big Time) on Big Tech for the past few months, and share prices have tumbled […]

July 24, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For July 24, 2021

Stocks tumble and rebound from Friday to Friday. The DJI futures contract dropped and rebounded ~1,400 points from last Friday’s high to this Friday’s high. A 2,800 point round trip in a week. The Nasdaq, S+P, and the Vanguard Total Market ETF rallied from Monday’s lows to make new All-Time Highs. The NYSE (and the […]

July 17, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For July 17, 2021

Stock indices closed on their lows this week The Nasdaq 100 closed higher for 8 consecutive weeks but closed on its lows this week after making new All-Time Highs. The index has rallied ~15% since the May 10-12 Key Turn Date. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Index have been the weakest of the major indices […]

July 10, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For July 10, 2021

Choppy price action this week WTI made a 7-year high at $77 on Tuesday, then tumbled ~$6 into Thursday’s low but bounced back $4 by Friday’s close. Prices on the long bond have been soaring the past two months ( yields have been falling), but the market appeared to have a blow-off top Thursday, and […]

July 3, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For July 3, 2021

The Goldilocks and no bears market We have Goldilocks conditions as stock indices surge to new ATHs during the seasonally best time of the year. The S+P is up ~6X from the 2009 lows – not counting dividends. The Naz 100 is up ~14X from the 2009 lows, and with those kinds of gains, who […]

June 26, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For June 26, 2021

You can’t go home again Thomas Wolfe told us that, “We can’t go back home again – to the old forms and systems of things which once seemed everlasting but which are changing all the time.”   Keep that in mind when you think about the possibility of the Fed ever truly “normalizing” their policies. […]

June 19, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For June 19, 2021

My best short term trading week of the year I’ve taken a lot of small losses this year, trying to fade what I thought was irrational bullish enthusiasm – so it felt good to cash in some winning tickets this week. I’ll tell you more about that in the Short Term Trading section below, but […]

June 12, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For June 12, 2021

A Powerful Key Turn Date at the end of March No market exists in splendid isolation. When any market moves, it impacts other markets – to some degree. When several markets reverse direction simultaneously, I call that a Key Turn Date (KTD) and see that as a powerful market signal. The power of the “signal” increases with the […]

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