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March 16, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 16, 2024

Short and long-term interest rates rose every day this week. Are higher rates starting to matter? The S&P and the NAZ closed lower again this week – the first time those indices have seen back-to-back weekly declines since October. Yields on the 10-year Note hit a 16-year high (~5%) in October (as stock indices hit a 5-month […]

March 9, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 9, 2024

Wicked price action may signal a shift in sentiment and positioning NVDA gapped higher on Friday’s opening and reached new All-Time Highs (up ~105% YTD) in the first hour of trading. It then dropped and closed below Wednesday and Thursday levels, creating a Daily Key Reversal down. NVDA’s market cap fell >$300 billion from Friday’s highs to lows. […]

March 2, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 2, 2024

Key global stock indices surge to new highs; breadth at near record highs on “buy everything” sentiment The S&P hit new All-Time Highs again this week, up 16 of the last 18 weeks for a gain of ~1,000 points (25%) from the October 2023 lows. During this rally, the S&P market cap has increased ~$8 trillion, […]

February 24, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 24, 2024

The most important stock in the world NVDA market cap soared >$300 Billion on Thursday (day session and aftermarket) to >$2 Trillion. This was the largest ever one-day market cap gain by an individual stock. The increase was equivalent to over TWICE the market cap of RBC, the largest stock on the TSE.   The rally […]

February 17, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 17, 2024

Leading US stock indices lose upside momentum The DJIA, S&P and the NAZ made new All-Time Highs this week but closed lower on the weekly charts. NDVA continued to rally this week, up 53% YTD, up 224% in the last 12 months, and now has the 3rd largest market cap (after MSFT and AAPL) of all US […]

February 10, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 10, 2024

Stock indices continue to rally The DJIA is up ~6,500 points (~20%) from the October lows, closing higher for 14 of the last 15 weeks (a multi-decade record.) The Nasdaq 100 is up ~68% in 14 months since the January 2023 lows. NVDA has rallied ~$250 (52%) in six weeks from its January 2024 lows and is up […]

January 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 27, 2024

US stock indices are higher again this week, with the DJIA up ~6,000 points (18%) from its October lows The S&P, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and the VTI ETF have all closed higher for 12 of the last 13 weeks. The rally continues to be led by big-cap tech, with MSFT and AAPL both reaching a $3+ […]

January 20, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 20, 2024

NDVA, MFST and META surge to new all-time highs; various other stocks also rise NVDA is up ~20% since the end of 2023 with a current market cap of ~$1.5 Trillion, or roughly half that of AAPL and MSFT.   The powerful rally in Big Cap Tech took the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P to new all-time […]

January 13, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 13, 2023

The cash S&P 500 index closed green for 10 of the last 11 weeks, registering an All-Time High weekly close Stock market sentiment and positioning are very bullish. Capital has flowed to “quality” stocks and away from unprofitable or “meme” stocks YTD. MSFT closed this week at an All-Time High with a market cap of ~$2.89 Trillion […]

January 6, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 6, 2024

After closing higher for nine consecutive weeks and making new All-Time Highs, Nasdaq 100 futures took a “refreshing” pause to start the New Year The NAZ rallied ~60% in 2023, its best performance since the fabulous 1999 Dot.com days. (Veteran campaigners may remember that the NAZ rose an additional 30% by March 2000 but then […]

December 30, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 30, 2023

We’ve had a historic 2-month rally in stocks and bonds in anticipation of several interest rate cuts in 2024 due to falling inflation – what’s next? The leading stock indices (and many individual names) traded higher for nine consecutive weeks, with the DJIA and the NAZ 100 ending 2023 at All-Time Highs.   The DJIA rallied ~5,450 points (~17%) from […]

December 23, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 23, 2023

DJIA and NAZ hit All-Time Highs after closing higher for eight consecutive weeks Who would have thought, back in October, with stock market sentiment crushed under the weight of “higher for longer” and the 10-year Treasury yielding more than 5% (a 16-year high) that eight weeks later, the venerable DJIA would have rallied over 5,300 points […]

December 16, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 16, 2023

Powell kicked the Everything Rally into Overdrive! Markets were expecting “some” pushback from Jay, “We’re a long way from neutral” Powell after a sizzling 6-week stock market rally, but he waved the white flag instead, and the Everything Rally ripped higher!   The bullish rip took Dec 2024 SOFR futures to ~9630 at Thursday’s high, effectively pricing in […]

December 9, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 9, 2023

Gold soars to All-Time High, then falls below last week’s low On Sunday evening, New York time (Monday morning Asian time), February Comex gold soared ~$60 within the first hour of trade to an All-Time High of ~$2,152. By mid-day Monday in New York, it was down ~$115 from the overnight highs; at Friday’s lows, it […]

December 2, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 2, 2023

Stocks, bonds and gold soar; the US Dollar falls as markets anticipate Central Bank cuts The DJIA has rallied ~4,000 points (~12.5%) in five weeks and is only ~2% away from All-Time Highs. It is up ~26% from October 2022 lows. The Nasdaq 100 has rallied ~13% in five weeks and is only ~5% away from ATH. […]

November 25, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 25, 2023

A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest. Paul Simon, The Boxer Over the last four weeks, the DJIA is up ~3,000 points (~9%), the Nasdaq is up ~14%, and the Mag7 is up even more. The 30-year Treasury is up ~10 points from 16-year lows, and the US Dollar Index is […]

November 18, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 18, 2023

Soft CPI = stocks and bonds up, USD down The Tuesday morning CPI report was marginally softer than expected; the market took that as “confirmation” that the Fed is DONE – stocks and bonds surged higher, and the USD tumbled – its biggest down day since falling on the softer-than-expected CPI report in November 2022. The […]

November 11, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 11, 2023

Surging Megacap Tech shares power the Nasdaq 100 to the highest weekly close since July Three weeks ago, the NAZ closed at a 6-month low as long-term interest rates hit 16-year highs, but a reversal lower in interest rates last week ignited a buying frenzy across the stock market, with the NAZ closing this week ~10% above […]

November 4, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For November 4, 2023

Stocks and bonds soared this week, and the US Dollar fell as markets believe Central banks are “done” raising interest rates Bonds 30-year Treasury futures fell ~20% from the post-SVB highs in April to last week’s 16-year lows. (Yields rose from 3.55% to 5.10%.) The market turned higher last week and soared this week on a […]

October 28, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 28, 2023

The Nasdaq had its best-ever first-half gain this year (~45%) but peaked in July and fell ~12% to this week’s lows The Nasdaq’s “defining moment” was made on July 18 when MSFT’s market cap soared ~$100 billion in an hour on an AI announcement, taking the share price to All-Time Highs of ~$367. Within three days, […]

October 21, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 21, 2023

Weekly change: Gold up, bond yields up, crude oil up, stocks down, USD down Gold Gold rallied ~$185 from 8-month lows on October 6 to this Friday’s highs, with the front-month contract closing this week above $1980 for the first time since the mid-July Key Turn Date. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, […]

October 15, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 15, 2023

“This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades.” Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a statement accompanying the bank’s quarterly earnings news release. This edition of the TD Notes will be brief. After three days in Calgary attending Josef Schachter’s “Catch the Energy” conference, I returned to my desk Sunday […]

October 7, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 7, 2023

Was Friday a turning point? Bond prices collapsed to fresh 16-year lows immediately following Friday morning’s “stronger than expected” NFP report. The US Dollar Index surged higher, while S&P futures tumbled and appeared ready to make new 4-month lows.   But ~30 minutes after the NFP report, markets reversed course, and by the end of the day, S&P futures […]

September 30, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 30, 2023

August/September: Bond yields, USD and Crude oil sharply higher, stocks and gold down The yield on the long bond soared from ~3.9% on the mid-July Key Turn Date to ~4.8% (a 16-year high) on Thursday. Bond prices fell as yields rose. The US Dollar Index rallied ~7% from the mid-July KTD, rising for 11 consecutive weeks. This […]

September 23, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 23, 2023

KING Dollar higher for ten consecutive weeks The US Dollar Index registered its highest weekly close in ten months, up ~6% from the mid-July Key Turn Date. The Euro (the Anti-Dollar) has closed lower for ten consecutive weeks, falling ~6% from its mid-July highs. The Yen has dropped ~7% from its mid-July highs and closed this week at 10-month lows […]

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