- the source for market opinions


June 2, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – June 2nd

Market Psychology had a classic “Risk Off” profile early this week as the “existential crisis” unfolding in Europe rallied the safe havens (USD, Swissy, Yen, Treasuries, German bunds) while the Euro, stocks, commodities and peripheral European bonds were dumped.  As the “existential crisis” diminished later in the week everything (with the exception of crude) reversed. EUR/USD hit […]

May 28, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 26th

EUR/USD has dropped from over 1.25 to below 1.17 (~7%) in the last 9 weeks…closing this week at 7 month lows as political/economic developments in Italy herald a potentially existential crisis for Europe as “contagion” fears start to creep into the market. The EUR/USD 1.25 Inflection Point on Feb 16/18 came after the Euro had rallied against the USD for 15 […]

May 19, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 19th

“It doesn’t matter until it matters and then it really matters!” was how I began my April 21 TD notes. My point was that rising American interest rates were REALLY starting to matter in the foreign exchange world…and that was going to drive the USD higher. The USD index is now at a 5 month high, up […]

May 12, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 12th

President Trump will reapply sanctions against Iran. China has been told to reduce their trade surplus with America by $200 Billion within 2 years. Whether these are tactical bargaining positions or a line in the sand, the President is on a roll as the politically incorrect “disrupter” who is doing what he said he would do […]

May 5, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – May 5th

Three Main Themes: My trading over the past few months has been in line with three main themes: 1) US interest rates had been too low for too long and were going up, probably more than the market was pricing and definitely more than interest rates in other countries, 2) the US Dollar got too low […]

April 28, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – April 28th

The US Dollar surged higher again this week as American interest rates continued to rise. The 2 year US Treasury yield is at 10 year highs…the 10 year Treasury yield hit 7 year highs (3.04%) mid-week before dropping back below 3% by Friday. My headline last week, “It doesn’t matter until it matters…and then it really […]

April 21, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – April 21

It doesn’t matter until it  matters, and then it really matters! US interest rates are higher again this week…short rates are at 10 year highs (2.45% on the 2 year) while the 10 year Treasury yield is 2.94%…very close to 5 year highs. The market is expecting US interest rates to keep rising and after months […]

April 14, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – April 14th

The Kenny Rogers school of risk management: “You’ve got know when to hold’em, know when to fold’em…know when to walk away, know when to run.” Song Here I started this week with all of my trades going against me. I was short CAD and NZD and long puts on Gold and WTI. I was stopped out of CAD […]

April 2, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – March 31

From the Desk of Victor Adair My short term trading: I started this week short the stock market via a bear spread in S+P options. I created the bear spread by first buying S+P puts on Mar 13 when the market rolled over and then the following week I sold OTM S+P puts to lock […]

March 24, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – March 23

I started this week with short positions in CAD, Gold and the S+P. I took profits on the short CAD when it started to rally late Tuesday on news that the US was “softening” its NAFTA position on auto parts. I liquidated my gold position for a small loss on Wednesday when spot gold traded above $1325 […]

March 17, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – March 17th

I started this week with a clean slate (I was skiing at Whistler last week and didn’t want any open positions) but I had a list of trades that I hoped to make if the opportunity presented itself. Top of my list was to get short CAD and I did that Monday when CAD rolled over after last week’s […]

March 3, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – March 3

The US stock market was a great barometer of risk appetite this week. The DJIA rallied to 3 week highs on Monday but began falling early Tuesday morning (Powell testimony) and was down nearly 1,600 points at Friday’s lows. The prospect of “trade wars” following Trump’s proposed steel and aluminum tariffs contributed to a high […]

February 24, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – February 24th

The DJIA topped out one month ago after a 45%+ rally since Trump’s election. The DJIA moved broadly sideways between 16,000 and 18,000 for most of 2014, 2015 and 2016 and then took off on a 14 month Run for the Roses parabolic burst to 26,618. Following that top the DJIA had a swift 11% […]

February 20, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – February 17

Risk appetite bounced back this week but sentiment seemed to be more defensive than aggressive (S+P futures volume was less than ½ of last week’s volume.) At last week’s lows the S+P 500 was down ~12% from its January highs…it closed this week down only ~5% from those highs. The US Dollar fell this week as […]

February 10, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – February 10

Risk Appetite had a Key Turn Date (KTD) the week of Jan 26/18 as the major American stock and commodity indices made important highs and then fell sharply while the US Dollar Index made an important low and then rallied sharply. (I define a KTD as a point in time when 2 or more major asset […]

January 30, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Jan 27th

From the Desk of Drew Zimmerman The USD was the talk of the town this week, if you were in Davos that is. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gave a “weak dollar” statement that the market jumped on, pushing the USD index down to lows we haven’t seen since the end of 2014. Trump has since tried to […]

January 20, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Jan 20th

The key aspect of market psychology so far this year has been a willingness to aggressively take on risk. We have seen aggressive buying of stocks and aggressive selling of bonds and the US Dollar. The leading global stock market indices keep rising as risk appetite keeps rising and FOMO seems to be the driving force. Bank of America reports […]

January 15, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Jan 13th

Markets are in a speculative blow-off phase right now with stock markets around the world surging higher while the US Dollar has been falling like a stone. My gut instinct is to fade this price action…but my risk management override says wait…it could get even crazier! Stocks: The S+P 500 has closed higher every day this […]

January 8, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Jan 6th

From the Desk of Victor Adair The Most Crowded Trade In The World Raoul Pal posted a great essay in the December 28/17 Macro Insiders section of describing the lurking danger of what he calls The Giant Implicit Put. Here’s a couple of lines from his essay: Volatility  never  did pick up in  2017.  This  was  […]

December 16, 2017 | Trading Desk Notes – Dec 16

Market price action (across asset classes) has been skitzoid the past couple of weeks…up one day, down the next (and in some markets up and down within the same day!) as breaking news or central banker comments have buffeted prices…while competing views about the future, about what’s important and what isn’t, seem to be enthusiastically embraced […]

December 12, 2017 | Trading Desk Notes – Dec 9th

My best trade this week was re-shorting CAD. I’ve been shorting CAD on-and-off since the Sept 8 Key Turn Date when CAD nearly touched 83 cents before reversing. I was flat over the American Thanksgiving long weekend but re-shorted CAD on Monday Nov 27. I was stopped out with a decent profit following the WAY […]

December 4, 2017 | Trading Desk Notes – Dec 2

Volatility jumped this week: Last week the VIX briefly dropped below 9%…a 24 year low…but ramped up throughout this week to a 3 month high above 14.5% on Friday as markets focused on political developments in Washington. The DJIA experienced 400+ point ranges both Thursday and Friday with choppy price action on “will-they-won’t-they” tax reform issues. […]

November 27, 2017 | Trading Desk Notes – Nov 25

It was a low volume Thanksgiving week…Congress was on vacation…no tax reform news. The major American stock Indices continued to make new All Time Highs. The DJIA is up > 30% from the Trump election lows while the Tech sector ETF is up >40% in same time frame. The American, Japanese and Emerging Market stock indices were all […]

November 18, 2017 | Trading Desk Notes – Nov 18

Choppy price action in currencies: The September 8 Key Turn Date launched the US Dollar on a 2 month rally against most other currencies…the US Dollar Index rose 4.5%…but the past 2 weeks the price action was choppy with Euro, Yen and Gold all higher against the USD while AUD and NZD fell and CAD […]

November 4, 2017 | Trading Desk Notes – Nov 4th

Last weekend it was easy to imagine that markets would be volatile this week: President Trump was set to nominate a new Fed Chairman, tax reform plans were to be unveiled, the Fed and the BOE were meeting, the post-hurricane employment reports were due, stock markets had raced to new All Time Highs…what could possibly […]

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