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June 8, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 8, 2024

Check your old-school assumptions at the door Market sentiment has been oscillating between believing that “higher for longer” is 1) dead or 2) will be indefinitely sustained. The oscillation frequency has shrunk from months (during the October to February period) to days (since mid-April), and this week, sentiment swung from pillar to post between Monday and […]

June 1, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For June 1, 2024

Let the cuts begin The Bank of Canada may announce a 25bps cut (from 5.25%) on Wednesday (markets are pricing a 75% chance), and the ECB is expected to announce a 25bps cut (from 4.50%) on Thursday. The Fed is not likely to cut rates at its June 12 meeting.   The net speculative short positioning in Canadian dollar futures is […]

May 25, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For May 25, 2024

Divergence: while NVDA soared on Thursday, all 30 stocks in the DJIA closed lower on the day (for the first time in 2024) NVDA’s quarterly report on Wednesday was expected to be good. Still, the possibility of it being “less bullish than expected” likely sidelined many bullish traders ahead of the release date because it […]

May 18, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For May 18, 2024

Gold and copper hit all-time highs this week; silver rallied to 12-year highs June Comex gold futures closed at an all-time high on Friday at ~$2,420, up ~$80 from Monday’s low. The Gold Miners ETF closed at a two-year high. Comex copper rallied above $5 a pound to close higher than the previous record set in March 2022 […]

May 11, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For May 11, 2024

Despite a quiet, low VOL week, the leading stock indices continued to rally, with the European benchmark index closing at all-time highs. Last week was chockablock with data and event risk; price action was wickedly choppy, and stocks rose. This week was so quiet that you sometimes wondered if the markets were open – and […]

May 4, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For May 4, 2024

The dominant market theme YTD, “the Fed will stay higher for longer,” softened this week Price action across equity, interest rate and currency markets this week was buffeted by US economic and inflation data, concerns about Treasury and Fed policy decisions, currency intervention by the Japanese finance ministry, and concerns about critical corporate reports.   The net takeaway from […]

April 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For April 27, 2024

Is buying the Yen in anticipation of another “Plaza Accord” the Trade of the Year or just another attempt to catch a falling piano? The BoJ did nothing at their scheduled meeting this week, and the Yen collapsed to a new 34-year low against the USD and hit an All-Time low against the Euro (which has only been around for 26 years.) […]

April 20, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For April 20, 2024

Nasdaq had a lousy week and closed on its lows Benchmark global stock indices had their best-ever monthly close in March, but they all turned lower in April, with some of the former high-fliers getting hit the hardest.   Nasdaq closed Friday at a 2-month low, down ~8.5% from March highs. MSFT had its lowest close […]

April 13, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For April 13, 2024

LATE NEWS: Iran fires missiles into Israel. As much as the market worried that this could happen, there was hope that Iran would not retaliate at this scale. This will likely have a MAJOR impact on markets, especially if Israel and the US counterattack. Is the Fed wrong – again? For traders and investors, the […]

April 6, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For April 6, 2024

Gold closed at All-Time highs this week, up 29% from the 2023 lows made on October 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel. Gold rallied over $150 in the last seven trading days, making new highs every day this week and closing at its highs on Friday, as anticipation grows Iran will respond to the attack on […]

March 30, 2024 | Trading Desk Report For March 30, 2024

We’re in no rush to cut interest rates Fed Chairman Jay Powell and Fed Governor Chris Waller reminded markets this week that they are in “no rush” to cut interest rates until they see clear evidence that inflation is returning to the Fed’s 2% target.   Equity markets (outside China) reflect the belief that Central Banks […]

March 23, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 23, 2024

Leading stock indices rallied to new All-Time Highs as Western Central Banks signalled interest rate cuts this year After closing lower for the past two weeks, the S&P and NAZ futures surged to new highs this week following dovish signals/cuts from the FOMC, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the Banco de Mexico. […]

March 16, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 16, 2024

Short and long-term interest rates rose every day this week. Are higher rates starting to matter? The S&P and the NAZ closed lower again this week – the first time those indices have seen back-to-back weekly declines since October. Yields on the 10-year Note hit a 16-year high (~5%) in October (as stock indices hit a 5-month […]

March 9, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 9, 2024

Wicked price action may signal a shift in sentiment and positioning NVDA gapped higher on Friday’s opening and reached new All-Time Highs (up ~105% YTD) in the first hour of trading. It then dropped and closed below Wednesday and Thursday levels, creating a Daily Key Reversal down. NVDA’s market cap fell >$300 billion from Friday’s highs to lows. […]

March 2, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For March 2, 2024

Key global stock indices surge to new highs; breadth at near record highs on “buy everything” sentiment The S&P hit new All-Time Highs again this week, up 16 of the last 18 weeks for a gain of ~1,000 points (25%) from the October 2023 lows. During this rally, the S&P market cap has increased ~$8 trillion, […]

February 24, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 24, 2024

The most important stock in the world NVDA market cap soared >$300 Billion on Thursday (day session and aftermarket) to >$2 Trillion. This was the largest ever one-day market cap gain by an individual stock. The increase was equivalent to over TWICE the market cap of RBC, the largest stock on the TSE.   The rally […]

February 17, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 17, 2024

Leading US stock indices lose upside momentum The DJIA, S&P and the NAZ made new All-Time Highs this week but closed lower on the weekly charts. NDVA continued to rally this week, up 53% YTD, up 224% in the last 12 months, and now has the 3rd largest market cap (after MSFT and AAPL) of all US […]

February 10, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 10, 2024

Stock indices continue to rally The DJIA is up ~6,500 points (~20%) from the October lows, closing higher for 14 of the last 15 weeks (a multi-decade record.) The Nasdaq 100 is up ~68% in 14 months since the January 2023 lows. NVDA has rallied ~$250 (52%) in six weeks from its January 2024 lows and is up […]

January 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 27, 2024

US stock indices are higher again this week, with the DJIA up ~6,000 points (18%) from its October lows The S&P, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and the VTI ETF have all closed higher for 12 of the last 13 weeks. The rally continues to be led by big-cap tech, with MSFT and AAPL both reaching a $3+ […]

January 20, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 20, 2024

NDVA, MFST and META surge to new all-time highs; various other stocks also rise NVDA is up ~20% since the end of 2023 with a current market cap of ~$1.5 Trillion, or roughly half that of AAPL and MSFT.   The powerful rally in Big Cap Tech took the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P to new all-time […]

January 13, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 13, 2024

The cash S&P 500 index closed green for 10 of the last 11 weeks, registering an All-Time High weekly close Stock market sentiment and positioning are very bullish. Capital has flowed to “quality” stocks and away from unprofitable or “meme” stocks YTD. MSFT closed this week at an All-Time High with a market cap of ~$2.89 Trillion […]

January 6, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For January 6, 2024

After closing higher for nine consecutive weeks and making new All-Time Highs, Nasdaq 100 futures took a “refreshing” pause to start the New Year The NAZ rallied ~60% in 2023, its best performance since the fabulous 1999 Dot.com days. (Veteran campaigners may remember that the NAZ rose an additional 30% by March 2000 but then […]

December 30, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 30, 2023

We’ve had a historic 2-month rally in stocks and bonds in anticipation of several interest rate cuts in 2024 due to falling inflation – what’s next? The leading stock indices (and many individual names) traded higher for nine consecutive weeks, with the DJIA and the NAZ 100 ending 2023 at All-Time Highs.   The DJIA rallied ~5,450 points (~17%) from […]

December 23, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 23, 2023

DJIA and NAZ hit All-Time Highs after closing higher for eight consecutive weeks Who would have thought, back in October, with stock market sentiment crushed under the weight of “higher for longer” and the 10-year Treasury yielding more than 5% (a 16-year high) that eight weeks later, the venerable DJIA would have rallied over 5,300 points […]

December 16, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For December 16, 2023

Powell kicked the Everything Rally into Overdrive! Markets were expecting “some” pushback from Jay, “We’re a long way from neutral” Powell after a sizzling 6-week stock market rally, but he waved the white flag instead, and the Everything Rally ripped higher!   The bullish rip took Dec 2024 SOFR futures to ~9630 at Thursday’s high, effectively pricing in […]

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