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August 13, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For August 13, 2022

Global stock markets continue the rally from the June lows, S+P up ~18%, NAZ up 23%, AAPL up 33% The S+P, DJI and VTI (Vanguard total stock market ETF) have recovered >50% of their decline from the January All-Time Highs to the 20-month lows made around the mid-June FOMC meeting – when the Fed raised […]

August 13, 2022 | This Week in Money

August 12, 2022 | The Official Recession Label Will Come Much Too Late To Be Useful

The probability of recession in the U.S. is high. The popular definition of recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — has already occurred. But there is no official declaration of recession, yet. Why the delay in calling a recession? Some people argue that a U.S. recession has started. The test of two consecutive […]

August 12, 2022 | Grantham: Bear Market Update

As stocks rebound on disinflation data and hope for less central bank tightening, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is +21% from its June low but remains -18% from its November high. Meanwhile, commodity speculators are back to bidding up prices even as excess inventory of many goods mounts and global demand contracts. Bonne chance tout la monde. […]

August 12, 2022 | Argentina’s Central Bank Ups Rate to 69.5%

Europe’s Energy woes see record power prices

August 12, 2022 | Company CTO Zarko Meseldzija Discusses Recent Trip to NAATBatt’s Battery Recycling Workshop

Demonstration plant, IRAP funding, and the Inflation Reduction Act. Read MiningWeekly.com Article – “Lithium Value To Remain High Amid Accelerated Demand, Tight Supply – Fitch Solutions“. Read The Hill Article – “Manchin Deal Could Raise New Hurdles For Electric Vehicle Incentives“. Read Forbes Article – “Electric Car Batteries Lasting Longer Than Predicted Delays Recycling Programs“. […]

August 11, 2022 | Democrats Scorched Earth Policy

Hillary Clinton is using the tyrannical Mar-a-Lago raid to sell merchandise. Clinton began promoting “but her emails” clothing only a day after Trump’s personal residence was stormed. That seems to be a quick turnaround time considering everyone claims the raid blindsided them. She is blatantly bragging that intelligence agencies never came after her in any […]

August 11, 2022 | Tracking Grizzly Bears

This morning (so far), stocks and bonds are rebounding on relief that US CPI in July eased to 8.5% (consensus forecast was 8.7%) from 9.1% in June, suggesting that the US Fed may hike less than 75 bps in September. The drop in price pressure was led primarily by disinflation in used vehicles, air travel, […]

August 11, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – August 2022

Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large part to dodge the pain […]

August 11, 2022 | Gold, Oil, Gas and Pot

Russia/Ukraine

August 11, 2022 | Energy Remains a Good Long Term Bet

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August 10, 2022 | IRS Staff and Audits Will Multiply

The Inflation Reduction Act will waste $430 billion and will do absolutely nothing to curb inflation. Around $300 billion will be spent on climate change initiatives. Clearly, that is not going to curb inflation, and paying farmers incentives for reducing emissions still does not change the fact that the current methods are the only way […]

August 10, 2022 | Contagion Between Public and Private Markets

The average sale price for a Toronto home in July was $1.02 million (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board), down $133,075 (11.5%) from June 2022 and +0.2 percent or $2,520 compared to July 2021. Sales were down 44%, and active listings were up 25%, while the stockpile of available homes was up 58% from a year […]

August 9, 2022 | Energy Rationing in Spain

Spain is yet another southern European country feeling the brunt of inflation. Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) reported that prices rose 10.8% in July, an increase from June’s 10.2% reading and May’s 8.5% level. This is the highest level of inflation for the nation since September 1984. Spain’s economy grew 1.1% in Q2, faring better […]

August 9, 2022 | Insane Governments Ruining Agriculture: 1930s Suffered Lysenkoism and in 2022 Nitrogen is Suddenly a Threat

As an historian of governments going from authoritarian to the even more regrettable totalitarianism, one wonders “Why?” harm agriculture. Sadly, that governments get into the mode of declaring war on countries as well as upon their own citizens can be criticized, but no amount of research can explain why.

August 9, 2022 | Australian House Prices Dropping at ‘Fastest Rate’ since 2008

The housing bust is not just happening in Canada… The housing market is turning as interest rate hikes spook buyers – and in bad news for those who don’t own, those rate hikes are also pushing up rents. Here is a direct video link.

August 9, 2022 | Is This Time Different?

     For the fourth time since 1988, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield has moved below 0.0%.    As shown by the shaded areas on the chart, each of these time periods preceded U.S. recessions.                 1989:  Yield Inversion.  Recession                 2000:  Yield Inversion.  Recession                 2006:  Yield […]

August 9, 2022 | Why I’m More Bullish Than Ever

A subscriber asked if I was more bullish on silver than ever. I told him yes, I was. Them, it dawned on me that I may not have properly conveyed my strong feelings that silver may soon explode in price (and drag gold along with it). After nearly 40 years, I believe the silver manipulation […]

August 8, 2022 | FBI Raids Trump’s Home – DOJ Planning Indictment – End of the USA As We Have Known It

The Democrats are desperate to win in November and they are taking the United States down the drain in order to forcefully impose their will, or should I say the Great Reset. On the approaching 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, The Democrats are toying with what will most likely end […]

August 8, 2022 | Housing Bear in Early Stages

As prices rose, industry participants urged policymakers to stimulate supply with tax incentives and enable demand with easy credit; now that home prices are falling (as they should), the same people are urging policymakers to help prop prices up. 😊 Quick profit, not affordability, was always the goal and that golden goose is now dead. The giveback phase […]

August 8, 2022 | No New Couches

As discussed last week, our early indicators pointed to Greater Vancouver home sales falling to a 22 year low in home sales for July. The Real Estate board has officially confirmed the precipitous decline. July sales were also 35% below the ten year average, and the typical price of a home is now down 4.5% […]

August 7, 2022 | Thoughts on ‘The Drive’

[The following went out last month to clients of my friend Doug Behnfield, a wealth management advisor and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley in Boulder CO.  Like your editor, he is skeptical that consumer inflation can persist for long with the U.S. economy in recession and a bear market in progress. Deflation is coming, he […]

August 7, 2022 | American Household Debt Surpasses $16 Trillion

American household has reached a new high, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Total household debt has surpassed $16 trillion for the first time in American history. Americans have taken on $2 trillion in additional debt since the pandemic. Aggregate household debt balances rose by $312 billion in Q2 […]

August 7, 2022 | Weirdness Factors

It’s a recession! No, not yet! I see these arguments everywhere and I’m already tired of them. For those who believe it is not yet a recession, I will make a deal with you. The third quarter is likely to be negative. When we have three quarters of a recession in a row, just give […]

August 6, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For August 6, 2022

Markets that don’t fall on “bad” news probably go higher My macro bias over the past few weeks has been that inflation would stay higher for longer than markets were pricing. I thought stock indices were in a bear market rally, based on the notion that Peak Fed had come and gone with the June […]

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