- the source for market opinions


December 30, 2022 | Outlook for 2023: Sort Of

Decades ago, when we were retained by major mining companies for our studies on metal prices there were varying views. Guys in the market-finance department wanted to know price trends for metals. Using supply/demand analysis they were experienced at extrapolating trends. Actual reversals in price typically lead key changes in the supply/demand equation, which makes […]

December 29, 2022 | Princely Finance and Taxation For More Than Twenty Years an Annual Piece

One would have hoped that financial rip-offs committed by medieval princes would have been permanently shelved when liberal enlightenment ended the divine right of kings. Instead, the divine right of bureaucrats has forced too much in-your-face and in-your-wallet government. Today’s supposedly classless version of greedy royalty.

December 1, 2022 | Real Estate: The Post-Bubble Bear Market Could Run For Years

A great mania in real estate erupted with the financial bubble and will likely be followed by a lengthy decline. Previous post-bubble contractions have prevailed for some twenty years, with the usual 3 to 4-year business cycle coming and going. The following chart shows the outstanding rally in the S&P Real Estate Sector peaked in […]

September 29, 2022 | Worst Treasury Rout in Decades

Indeed, whether looking at price or yield, there has been panic-selling which has been feeding upon itself. News or opinion sites that pay little attention to interest rates posted a piece on the alarm and another on “Inflation”, which is the obvious explanation.

September 7, 2022 | Aggressive Fed-Rate Increases: Is Powell Doing A Volcker?

After being arbitrarily accommodating, then in a relatively sudden fit of increasing administered rates, is the current Fed Chair, Powell, trying to replicate Chairman Volcker’s “success” in ending inflation in 1980? Perhaps, but since the Fed opened its doors in 1914 the US dollar is only worth, well, 3 cents on the dollar – which […]

August 24, 2022 | The Collapse of Bullying Authoritarians: Leaders and Regimes

It seems that a severe financial contraction could materially reduce China and Russia’s totalitarian ambition. And as the urge for political reform is being threatened, loss of funding for deliberate mayhem could be in the “nick of time”. As they occurred in the senior economy, there has been three great experiments in authoritarian government that […]

August 9, 2022 | Insane Governments Ruining Agriculture: 1930s Suffered Lysenkoism and in 2022 Nitrogen is Suddenly a Threat

As an historian of governments going from authoritarian to the even more regrettable totalitarianism, one wonders “Why?” harm agriculture. Sadly, that governments get into the mode of declaring war on countries as well as upon their own citizens can be criticized, but no amount of research can explain why.

July 6, 2022 | Climate Update Global Temp Continues Flat – Be Alert to “Tropical Coolness”

On the UAH Satellite Temp record, the global anomaly for June was +0.06 C, down from +0.17 C in May, which compares to the +0.26 C on the April posting. The high with the El Nino of 2016 was +0.70 C, essentially offsetting almost half of the hysteria about a 1.5 C increase.

June 14, 2022 | Eventually The Bear Gets Everything: Including Energy Prices

Before getting to the price action in Crude Oil and Gasoline, it is worth emphasizing that once a great financial mania completes the business cycle almost immediately turns down. This combined with the usual strength in the senior currency forces a bear market for most commodities.

May 27, 2022 | VSE Vignette

The old Vancouver Stock Exchange started in 1907 and has been the focus of Western Canada’s speculative financial market. It generated a lot of “stories” as well as some important mines, that otherwise might not have been discovered. While the trading floor is long gone, some of the characters that floated around Vancouver’s financial center […]

April 30, 2022 | Financial Nightmare? Broker/Dealers: Where Dreams Are Exchanged For Commissions

Broker/Dealers (XBD) is an index representing the mechanics of the financial markets. After an outstanding run it has rolled over and is breaking down – taking three months.

April 11, 2022 | Three Ways to The End of The World

“Green Radicals Claim Humanity Has Only 3 Years Left To Stop ‘Climate Apocalypse’: Fast Track To Disaster”

March 29, 2022 | Political Calculation: Economic Calculation: Science Calculation

Political Calculation has been overwhelming sound Economic as well as Science Calculation and dictatorial distortions are leading to widespread hardship. This contrasts with the Platonic notion that government being run by the genius of a philosopher-king can know what you need tomorrow and can provide it.

March 7, 2022 | Russia’s Financial Panic

To begin, Russia’s stock and bond markets that were vulnerable to any financial setback have suffered a remarkable crash, as a reformed country in an instant becomes a lesser country. Due to a rogue leader.

March 6, 2022 | Common Sense Political Revolutions: Always Inspired By Tyrannical Duncery

For thousands of years, voluntary markets have provided basic needs at economical prices. Otherwise, when authoritarians impose their will in inflating the price of everything while denying goods and services results in hardship. Let’s call it enforced hardship. Such intrusion occurred into the early 1600s when veteran merchants in London called it Tyrannical Duncery and […]

February 28, 2022 | Climate Update: March 2022

The best way to refute ardent but unfounded belief systems is with the reality of solid evidence over a long time, best presented by charts. Charts that have not been altered to fit today’s powerful political persuasions. Actually today’s trashing of science has been unseen since the Vatican condemned anyone who showed that the Universe […]

February 27, 2022 | Three Would-Be Dictators Have Blown It

Canada and the US are not used to dictators, even would-be ones, but the hitherto free countries through a fluke of political history allowed Trudeau and Biden to assume unprecedented powers. By promoting hysteria about climate and COVID both politicians have declared war upon ordinary people. While Putin has invaded an essentially benign neighbor that […]

February 4, 2022 | Profoundly Important Marches And Now Truck Convoys

In March 1965, a university friend was driving his small economy car from Vancouver to Toronto and while crossing the Great Plains and in listening to radio reports of the march from Selma to Montgomery he turned south to participate. The 54-mile route to the state capital of Alabama was not lengthy but inspired a […]

January 17, 2022 | Flattening the Curve: Global Temps

The eruption of the Hunga-Tonga Volcano is noteworthy. Both in its size and in the video of satellite images, with the ejection of ash and aerosols sending columns of material to some 60,000 feet, or almost 20 km. This has the potential to contribute to climate cooling over a couple of years.

December 1, 2021 | British Columbia: Climate, Dreadful Weather and Politics, Plus Geology

Canada’s West Coast has been hit by storms resulting in alluvial flood plains being flooded, roads built on alluvial benches being eroded and major highways on alluvial flood plains being covered by debris torrents adding to naturally occurring alluvial land.

November 25, 2021 | Global Warning on the Greatest Financial Mania in History

The first step is to identify what the key market action really is. With America’s change from a pro-business to a socialist administration, the popular alarm has been that “Inflation is back!”, as in the 1970s. Even more hysterical is that some “name” hedge fund managers have been calling for “Hyperinflation”, as afflicted Germany in the […]

September 25, 2021 | Flation: Which Kind Will it Be?

There are a number of ‘flations out there. Inflation, deflation and from the poorly understood 1970s stagflation. And the intention of this article is to review historically that there are two kinds of “inflations”, one is bad and the other is good. And only one kind of deflation, which is bad.

September 9, 2021 | Baltic Dry Freight Index: Marking the Peak for Shortages?

Our proprietary model provides Upside Exhaustions at close to important highs, as well as Downside Capitulations near important lows. Weekly such signals can be timely for trading, but to have it on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily stats is exceptional, and one has been recorded now. And in getting the signal in three time zones […]

June 22, 2021 | America: Brutal Revolution of Benign Reform?

What’s it going to be like when ordinary folk become more emphatic in saying “No!” to unrelenting intrusion by the dangerously ambitious Left? Will globalists force another bloody revolution? Or will American patriots be allowed to peacefully reform their bullying governments?   Constructively, reform is well under way and the discovery of informed opposition has […]

May 9, 2021 | A Primer on the History of Political Violence and Reform

Those new to history as well as those familiar with history may find it startling to read that some major political events have been methodical. Methodical enough to be predictable. The following essay is based upon research the writer pursued in the late 1970s. It focused upon unrelenting experiments in authoritarian government since the one […]

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