- the source for market opinions


October 24, 2018 | Extraordinary Confiscations by The State

The two ways the state aggrandizes itself is through raising taxation to levels that prompt protest. Ambition beyond these revenues has been funded through excessive debt issuance made easier to service through currency depreciation. Within the classical world, Rome enjoyed a relatively free economy until there was enough accumulated wealth to fund bureaucratic ambition – eventually without limitation or accountability. Rome turned into […]

October 25, 2017 | Minimum Ice Cover Arctic Summers

The seasonal low for Arctic Sea Ice has been set. And with the turn to expanding ice cover, Greenland’s numbers are tracking the high-side of the historical range.

September 7, 2017 | Global Warning!

As outlined by US markets, the financial mania has likely completed. September could reverse the action from bull to bear. As we have been reviewing it, the fall liquidity crisis could become serious enough to prompt a serious re-assessment of the competence of intrusive central banking.

August 16, 2017 | Climate Change

In science when the theory is shown not to work, it is abandoned. When government theories don’t work, data are altered.

June 3, 2017 | Climate Stats: Update

The Sunspot number for May was 18, which compares to 32.6 for April. On the year to date there has been 38 Spotless days, or 25 percent, which is the most in one year since 2010. For all of 2016 the number was 32, or 9 percent. The low count in SC 23 was 0.3 […]

May 19, 2017 | Real Estate: May 2017

Our last special comment on US real estate was published in August 2006, just a month after the actual peak in prices. Although not mentioned, the timing was prompted by a rare signal from our Peak Momentum Forecaster. It got over 1.20 signaling that whatever the big speculation was focused on was peaking.

March 7, 2017 | Sunspot Count Continues Low

The SS count for February was 26.1, which compares to 25.8 for January. The recent low was 18.9 in December. The high for Solar Cycle 24 was 146.1 in February 2014. The peak for SC 23 was 244.1 in July 2000.

February 8, 2017 | Climate Promotion: Seriously Failing

As an out and out promotion, climate concerns seemed to peak with Copenhagen in December 2009. The media was full of countdowns to the “end of the world”. England’s prime minister proclaimed “There are only 50 days to save the planet”. A newspaper headlined “Sun Going Down on Climate Skeptics”.

February 4, 2017 | Climate Update

On the Global chart, the January post was a slight uptick from the one for December. Otherwise, the decline is heading back to the long-running flat trend. For the Northern Hemisphere over the past few months, the satellite plot is in the sharpest decline on the 28-year record.

January 4, 2017 | Climate Update

The Solar Minimum continues with the sunspot count for December posted at 19.4, which compares to 21.4 for November. This is Solar Cycle 24 and the peak was 146 in February 2014 and the December number was a new cyclical low.

November 16, 2016 | Drain The Swamp? You Bet!

America voted to return to its foundations as a constitutional republic instead of continuing on the path towards a corrupting welfare state. On their compulsive drive, the governing classes had become, well, ungovernable

November 10, 2016 | Profound Political Change

The popular uprising has become distinctively successful. Worthy of the name “American Spring”, it will likely continue for decades.

November 3, 2016 | Climate Models and Actual Temperature

If this research was not being committed by opportunists on the government gravy-train it would have been given a quiet burial decades ago. In the dustbin of history.

November 7, 2015 | Christmas Bonus Indicator: Turning Negative

The Broker-Dealer Index (XBD) is where the wonders of financial engineering take place. When the sector is soaring, bonuses have been outstanding. When it is in a distinctive decline bonuses get whacked. Recent chart action is similar to the key rebound and reversal in October 2007 and in February 2001.

October 2, 2015 | Junk Credit Spreads: Like 2008

Following “Black Monday”, August 24th spreads could narrow for 2 to 4 weeks.

September 21, 2015 | Critters in The Financial Markets

We all know the denizens of the markets include Bears, Bulls and Pigs. The latter are those who stay too long or who reach for the extra yield.

July 16, 2015 | “Cross of Gold”

Signs of The Times China’s transition from exuberance to gloom has been rapid. “At a stock trading hall for investors in Shanghai, the mood is glum. The zest for market speculation goes hand-in-hand with the socialist conviction that the government can and should protect them from risk.” 1 – Financial Times, July 1.