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February 29, 2024 | Commercial Real Estate Investors Cutting Losses

2024 is a big year for commercial real estate refinancing (US loans maturing by year graphed below, via Liz Ann Saunders). Interest rates, insurance, taxes and ongoing maintenance costs are on the rise as occupancy rates decline. Investors who bought and held when prices were high are now selling at huge discounts to cut their negative […]

February 29, 2024 | Why War is Inevitable & the Outcome

  One of the basic rules of war is that you always keep two fronts going simultaneously. The first is the obvious battlefield. However, the second is communication. Suppose you DO NOT keep communication open through the back channels. In that case, there is NEVER the possibility of PEACE, and the war then becomes concluded only […]

February 29, 2024 | Cycles: Dow, Gold, US Dollar, Presidential

Real US Economy, Dot Com Bubble

February 28, 2024 | War & the ECM

QUESTION: You have been the only analyst who has been correct that there would be no recession that just about everyone had forecast for the last two years. A friend turned me on to you and said mainstream media will never quote you because you do not play by their rules. I had to present […]

February 28, 2024 | Insolvencies Leaping as Credit Demand Slumps

Business insolvencies are rising globally (chart below via The National Post), and Canada is seeing twice the G7 average. Canadian business insolvencies rose 35% quarter-over-quarter in the final quarter of 2023. They doubled compared with the same quarter in 2022 and were at the highest level in 13 years (Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy). The […]

February 28, 2024 | OPEC Discussing Extending Its Production Cuts For One More Quarter Lifts Crude Prices Modestly

GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Mixed economic data in the US continues with some data showing a slowing economy but others indicating inflation reversings to the upside. This stagflation pivot is not what the bond and stock market want to see. Forecasters are now indicating that the first cut would occur in June only […]

February 28, 2024 | Recession Watch: Deficits And AI Versus The Real World

Two things are keeping the US economy afloat right now. First is massive deficit spending, as the US dumps about $2 trillion of borrowed money into the banking system each year: Second, the AI “instant bubble,” is sending huge amounts of capital into a handful of tech stocks, thus levitating the entire market. See the […]

February 27, 2024 | Unaffordable Homes are Dead Weight

Thirteen years of ultra-easy money (2009-2022) drove an epic malinvestment of resources on a global scale. Now, we are grappling with the weight of those choices. From here, there’s a lot of room to make wiser investments that will increase efficiency and free cash flow while reducing waste, especially around energy, housing, transportation and food. […]

February 27, 2024 | Getting To $100 Silver, Part 1: Rising Solar Demand, Stagnant Mine Supply

I visited a local coin shop last week to see what they had in stock. And the answer was…nothing. They had not a single silver bullion coin. How can a coin shop function without its most basic product? “Everyone wants to buy silver, and no one is selling,” explained the owner. So instead of maintaining […]

February 27, 2024 | NYC Trump’s Case is a Warning – Get the Hell Out of NYC

        COMMENT: I have been considering the issues of whether the affirmative defense of qualified and other immunity defenses are or are not available to employees of states and cities if the complaint seeks only equitable relief and not money damages, and whether such defendants can avail themselves of the immunity defenses […]

February 27, 2024 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, Feb 2024 Update: 20-City Index Drops for 2nd Month from Double-Top. Biggest Price Drops from 2022 Peak: San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, San Diego

The overall home price index for the 20 metros that today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index covers declined by 0.6% from the prior month, the second month in a row of declines. The index formed a double-top with the first peak in June 2022 and the second peak in October 2023. The close-up of the […]

February 26, 2024 | Murder and Rape Legal for Lawless Migrants

  Laken Riley was a 22-year-old student on the Dean’s List at the Augusta University’s College of Nursing in Athens, Georgia, with a bright future ahead of her. She went for a run on a popular trail during the day and never returned home. Her body was found discarded in the woods and investigators, Democrat […]

February 26, 2024 | Real Estate Leading Economic Stall

Some illuminating facts on the ground in this segment. Starwood Capital Group CEO Barry Sternlicht says regional banks have a “giant skeleton in the closet” when it comes to real estate loans. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Sternlicht also discusses the state of the real estate market and his support for presidential candidate Nikki Haley. Here […]

February 25, 2024 | IRS Told to Prepare to Shoot US Citizens

BREAKING: IRS official Alex Mena who works in “Criminal Investigations” says @IRSNews, ‘has no problem going after the small people, putting people in prison, and destroying people’s lives.’ Mena ‘doubts the constitutionality’ of his employer, the IRS, using AI to access… — James O’Keefe (@JamesOKeefeIII) February 21, 2024 The Internal Revenue Service is a […]

February 25, 2024 | The Fallacy of the Wall of Worry

So much for the wall of worry!  Optimists and visionaries supposedly climb it while ignoring troublesome signs that leave most investors on the sidelines, paralyzed with fear. Last week, as soaring shares of Nvidia tugged stocks higher around the world, speculators swarmed the wall like cockroaches gorging themselves on dried beer, glue and animal feces. […]

February 24, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For February 24, 2024

The most important stock in the world NVDA market cap soared >$300 Billion on Thursday (day session and aftermarket) to >$2 Trillion. This was the largest ever one-day market cap gain by an individual stock. The increase was equivalent to over TWICE the market cap of RBC, the largest stock on the TSE.   The rally […]

February 24, 2024 | Russia is Getting Stronger – Not Weaker

  Russian President Vladimir Putin unveiled the new strategic long-range Tu-160M nuclear-capable bomber on Thursday, in a move likely to be seen in the West as a pointed reminder of Moscow’s nuclear capabilities. This is a new giant swing-wing type plane, where the pilots posted on the side “MY POMPEII,” referring to the destruction of […]

February 24, 2024 | This Week in Money

February 24, 2024 | China Exporting Deflation To The World

Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy fell 0.8% in January compared with a year earlier–the most significant deflation in over a decade.   With demand weak at home and inventories piling up, Chinese producers have the incentive to dump excess goods onto world markets, and they are. Chinese export prices have dropped steadily since […]

February 24, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday February 24th 2024

The Bottom Line Nvidia was the pleasant surprise last week: Its strength following release of “blow out” quarterly results powered the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average to all-time highs. Nvidia extended its parabolic upside move following release of results on Wednesday.

February 23, 2024 | China Could Be The World Leader in Nuclear Power by 2030

China is growing its nuclear power generation capacity. Already the world leader in solar and wind, China threatens to take the lead in one of the most talked-about clean energy formats, nuclear power. Will China pass the U.S. and France in generating electricity from nuclear fission? China has announced aggressive targets for nuclear power generation […]

February 23, 2024 | Strategic Relocation, Part 3: Whales Fleeing Weaponized Courts

In January, a Delaware judge forbade Tesla from paying its CEO, Elon Musk, an amount to which the board and shareholders had previously agreed. Musk responded by moving the corporate registration of SpaceX from Delaware to Texas and threatening to do the same with Tesla. “Never incorporate your company in the state of Delaware,” Musk posted on X following […]

February 23, 2024 | Mortgage Renewals Driving Shelter Inflation and Slower Economy

As I have been pointing out…years of easy money and housing speculation have left Canada’s economy between a rock and a hard place. Shelter costs (28% of Canadian CPI) are inflating as mortgages come up for renewal month after month. Households are cutting spending significantly in response. The result is stubborn shelter inflation and slowing […]

February 23, 2024 | Attention Shoppers, Gold on Sale in Aisle Five

Institutional investors shun green agenda

February 22, 2024 | 70% of American Cities in Debt – Pension Crisis will Cause Taxes to RISE

A study by Truth in Accounting (TIA) revealed that 70% of America’s largest cities fell into a deficit in fiscal year 2022. Out of the 75 cities studied, 53 simply did not have the funds to pay their bills. The study found that the total debt among the 75 cities had reached $288 billion, and despite the […]

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