ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
May 8, 2025 | Fed Sits Tight as Economic Hits Keep Coming
Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, as Chair Jerome Powell admitted he doesn’t know whether rising inflation or surging unemployment will hit hardest. In the meantime, indebted businesses and consumers feel the pressure of interest rates near multi-decade highs. A larger share of student loan balances are past due […]
May 7, 2025 | Trade-War Pain Spreading
China’s economy showed signs of damage from the trade war in April, with a drop in export orders and the weakest production at the country’s factories in more than a year. See, Beijing doesn’t want America to see its trade war pain Here is a direct video link. The impacts are evident in America, too. Port of […]
May 6, 2025 | Lacy Hunt: Five Recessionary Forces
Dr. Lacy Hunt, Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management, analyzes what he calls an economic “interregnum” where five convergent forces are aligning to depress growth. Dr. Hunt methodically explains how tariffs will ultimately prove deflationary rather than inflationary, why the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy is misplaced, how federal spending cuts are creating headwinds, why massive […]
May 5, 2025 | Cash-Strapped Investors Borrowing Against Illiquid Funds
During the highly unnatural, central bank-imposed years of ZIRP ‘zero interest rate policy’, investors were increasingly attracted to ‘alternative’ illiquid, opaque, securities that did not mark to market and promised future payouts premised on an endless supply of greater fools who would buy off existing holders. Some funds have been marketing theoretical return data, not […]
May 2, 2025 | Household Struggles Weigh on Real Estate and Spending
A surge in active listing supply and an increase in price reductions failed to lure more homebuyers off the sidelines in April, as US pending home sales dropped for the fourth consecutive month (chart below via Realtor.com®). See, Supply of Homes for Sale Hits a Post-Pandemic High in April—but Pending Sales Drop as Buyers Grapple With Economic Uncertainty: The […]
May 1, 2025 | Serious Question: How Long is Our Run?
Equity prices have made some ‘mean reversion’ progress year-to-date. At the end of March, the average geometric valuation for S&P 500 companies had declined to 148% from 167% in February (below since 1900, courtesy of Advisor Perspectives). This was the lowest since June 2024, but still, the most expensive in history and three standard deviations […]
April 30, 2025 | Rocks and Hard Places Leave No Easy Out
This morning, the first quarter 2025 US GDP estimate disappointed with a -0.3% annualized contraction (vs. -0.2% annualized estimate). At the same time, US consumer confidence surveys show future expectations at a 14-year low (below via Bloomberg, see US consumer confidence slumps). All three expectation components — business conditions, employment prospects, and future income — deteriorated […]
April 29, 2025 | US Imports from China Plunge
Gene Seroka, Port of LA executive director, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports and shipments, impact of new tariffs on Chinese goods on shipments from China, tariff impact on retailers, and more. Here is a direct video link. It takes about 30 days for container shipments to go from China […]
April 28, 2025 | Risk-off Following Familiar Pattern
The extremely over-valued, tech-concentrated US stock market has been a bug in search of a window for a long time. Trump’s chaos is accelerating an inevitable mean reversion that started with the bursting of the AI bubble on China’s DeepSeek news on January 10th. Year to date, the US market has been underperforming international stock […]
April 25, 2025 | Student Debt Problems are Contagious
According to the Education Data Initiative report, the total outstanding debt in US student loans (federal and private) is a record $1.77 trillion for more than 42 million borrowers. The average debt of a federal student loan borrower is about $37,853, with those aged 50 to 61 having the highest average debt at $46,790. Debt levels vary […]
April 24, 2025 | Retirement Funds in Trouble
Unfortunately, many individuals and pensions hold high, inappropriate financial risk that pays rich fees to ‘advisors’ and product creators.Clients can be hard to help as they often prefer the ‘good news’ touted by sell-side wizards over sober, fiduciary assessments made from the perspective of capital protection and longer-term best interests. This is especially true when […]
April 23, 2025 | Bear Market Drivers Intact
Risk markets are staging another bear market bounce on Trump’s latest statement that he does not intend to fire Fed Chair Powell. They are also negotiating with China. These things pass as good news today, but the macro picture continues to deteriorate. US capital expenditure plans and new orders (black lines below since 1985, courtesy of The […]
April 21, 2025 | Cashing out of America is Hard on Everyone
Erratic announcements from the Trump administration continue to spook an exodus of capital from asset markets. This morning, the trend intensified following Trump’s latest threats to fire the Federal Reserve Chairman for failing to lower the US overnight rate fast enough. In a speech last week, Fed Chair Powell reiterated concerns that the US core […]
April 17, 2025 | Leverage magnifies up and then down cycles
Buying assets with high loan-to-value ratios tends to magnify price cycles up and down. Leveraging assets like principal residences to get downpayments for other assets leads to a daisy chain of woe for owners, lenders, and the economy. We’re there, and unfortunately, we’ve earned a whopping correction cycle. Today’s interview features Ron Butler, principal broker […]
April 16, 2025 | Investing in Uncertain Times
Some worthwhile macro observations in this discussion. DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman moderates a discussion on April 3, the day after President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement, between DoubleLine CEO-CIO Jeffrey Gundlach and Quill Intelligence CEO and Chief Strategist Danielle DiMartino Booth on the current state of the market and economic outlook. The discussion was […]
April 15, 2025 | Canada’s Housing Market Downturn Grinds into Year Four
Market consensus pegs a 58% probability that the Bank of Canada will hold its overnight rate at 2.75% tomorrow, with a 42% chance of a 25-bp cut to 2.50%. This morning’s milder-than-expected Canadian inflation news, CPI of 2.3% year-over-year in March, was welcome. Canada’s consumer carbon tax ends in April, and oil (WTIC) around $61 […]
April 14, 2025 | Rough Ride Exacting a Toll
Preliminary estimates show that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for the US plunged to 50.8 in April—below forecasts of 54.5—and the lowest level since June 2022. Consumer sentiment has fallen 40% since November 2024 (below since 1970, courtesy of The Financial Times).At the same time, tariff announcements drove year-ahead inflation expectations to 6.7% (from […]
April 10, 2025 | Bouncing Downhill
Yesterday afternoon, news of a 90-day US trade tariff pause sparked jubilation in stock markets. The 9.5% bounce in the S&P 500 was the third-best day since 1950, and other indices followed suit. Lest we lack perspective, the other two best S&P 500 days were +12% on October 13, 2008, and +11% on October 28, […]
April 9, 2025 | Driving Drunk Without Brakes
I’ve continuously pointed out the danger of asset bubbles because they commonly lead to a slippery slope of destructive behaviours, threatening the health and stability of individuals, businesses, and the economy. After a dramatic wipeout in March 2020, stock prices rebounded into December 2021 before plunging into October 2022. Rebounding again, some sectors finally reclaimed […]
April 8, 2025 | “This Type of Thing Usually Ends with Forced Liquidations”
Understanding that “defensive” equities offer little protection in bear markets is critical to meaningful capital protection. The table below (courtesy of Gary Shilling) shows what happened to different sectors and the S&P 500 index overall during past recessions. Trying to hold through deep declines is hard; most people understandably panic after they have sustained big […]
April 7, 2025 | Asset Bubble Bug Finds Another Windshield
Financial commentators predictably blame the Trump administration for ‘unexpected’ market losses. Two things about that: the tariff file was not unexpected. Trump has promised to do this for a long time. Secondly, major downdraft cycles are the natural and recurring aftermath of debt abuse and asset bubbles. Reckless risk-taking was an international pastime during the […]
April 4, 2025 | Hits Keep Coming
Many people are now starting to realize (again) that they lack meaningful risk management and their financial health is in danger. The segments below offer some lucid economic observations. Wall Street economists predict a US recession this year and a return to pandemic-level inflation due to the Trump administration’s announcement of major tariffs on global […]
April 3, 2025 | DOGE Broadens Its Scope
Financial markets have many moving parts and the new Trump administration unnerves the status quo on both sides of the aisle. Inevitably, both good and bad will result from all of this mayhem. We must be capable of cognitive dissonance and hold opposing assessments depending on the issue; many are not. If asset bubbles continue […]
April 2, 2025 | Heads Up
Historically, when the S&P 500 has fallen 10% and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has declined 50+ basis points, the U.S. economy has been heading into recession about 70% of the time. We reached both milestones in March. The economically sensitive small-cap Russell 2000 index is down 17% since last November, and Canada’s […]
April 1, 2025 | Ice Storm For The Ages
It’s hard to imagine how damaging ice storms can be without witnessing them. After six decades of living in the north, this experience was a first for me. Big trees become weapons of mass destruction. There’s still no power or internet in our area. After a full day of sawing, cutting, and dragging tree parts, […]