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June 11, 2024 | Canadian Home Prices Moving Lower For Math Reasons

It is wildly unpopular to say this, but Canadian home prices need to move much lower. And yes, I, too, stand to lose net worth as they do. Immigration is unlikely to prevent mean reversion here. Immigrants need places to live, to be sure, but historically, it took an average of 7 years before immigrants […]

June 10, 2024 | Leveraged Gambling Ends Badly, as Usual

The lure of easy money delivers time-worn outcomes, once again. See how Real estate investors are wiped out in bets fuelled by Wall Street loans: Lynn Nathe was growing tired of the meager gains from her family’s retirement account. In late 2021, she invested $200,000 with a company that was making 30% returns by buying the […]

June 9, 2024 | Emission-Free Air Travel Now in Motion

Conventional polluting air travel is ripe for disruption. Fortunately, that’s in motion. German aerospace company Lilium wants to revolutionize air travel with its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) jet. “Revolutionize means make it absolutely zero emission,” Lilium CEO Klaus Roewe told CNBC Tech in an interview. Here is a direct video link.  

June 8, 2024 | Lacy Hunt: There is Reason To Worry

One of Lacy’s best ever… Famed economist Dr. Lacy Hunt joins us to talk about the recession in America and what he thinks will tip the scales. Here is a direct video link. 

June 7, 2024 | Canadian Banks Bracing For Mortgage Renewal Stress

About that Canadian debt renewal cliff… Canada’s Big Six banks are adding billions of dollars to their emergency funds as mortgage renewals approach for more than three quarters of homeowners. Andrew Chang explains why the banks are preparing for more delinquencies, and who’s most at risk. Here is a direct video link. 

June 6, 2024 | Eyes Wide Open as Bank of Canada Blinks

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BOC) blinked on inflation fears and responded to weak growth and rising unemployment with the first rate cut in four years and the first since the epic tightening cycle began 27 months ago in March 2022. Markets are pricing in another 50 bps of BOC rate cuts by year-end. Canada […]

June 5, 2024 | AI Mania Has Hyped Costs and Stock Prices

The costs of running generative AI are mind-blowing considering energy, training, and materials, while the revenue case is still largely missing. In just one example, Silicon Valley venture capital firm Sequoia estimates that in 2023, the tech industry spent $50 billion on chips from Nvidia to train AI but generated only $3 billion in revenue. […]

June 4, 2024 | Easing Begins as Unemployment Rises

We’ve long noted that their actions tend to be contagious once central banks start easing rates in response to disinflation and weakening global demand. This week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) and European Central Bank are expected to follow the Swiss and Swedish central banks in announcing the first 25 basis point (bps) cut since […]

June 3, 2024 | EPB Macro: Recession Signal Still Flashing

Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro offers valuable business cycle insight, and his latest educational video is worth watching. Eric warns that ” a lapse in patience is often a fatal flaw in using a business cycle process.” No truer words… In this video, we look into sequential signals of Business Cycle Recessions. Here is a direct video link.  

May 30, 2024 | Running Bulls Need No Thinking

For a year now, overnight interest rates have been above 5% in Canada and America, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been falling. This has resulted in the highest real interest rates (overnight rate – CPI) in at least 23 years. While very hard on debtors, it’s favourable for savers and it’s long overdue. […]

May 29, 2024 | Koo Explains Balance Sheet Recessions

Once the private sector is focused on paying down debt, economic growth is much harder to generate. Not just in China. Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute, explains why he thinks Beijing’s stimulus so far is not enough to get the country out of a “balance sheet recession”. Here is a direct video link.

May 28, 2024 | The Bond King Returns

For our first-ever in-studio Webcast with Dave, David Rosenberg hosts the “Bond King”, Jeffrey Gundlach, to discuss where the long-awaited recession is, his views on inflation o er the next 1-3 years, and his current thinking on the treasury market. The call, recorded on May 23, 2024, has been made available to the general public. […]

May 27, 2024 | Analysis-Free Asset Allocation is No Free Lunch

Michael Green reveals the hidden economic dangers and the risks of passive investing in today’s market. In this episode, Andrew Brill welcomes back Michael Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify Asset Management, for an insightful discussion on the current state of the economy. Discover why market indexes continue to hit new highs despite […]

May 25, 2024 | Rosenberg: Canada is Probably Already in Recession

David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how Canada is probably already in a recession. Here is a direct video link. 

May 24, 2024 | We Pick Our Poison

It’s a worldview thing: bulls celebrate AI euphoria led by Nvidia (chart below courtesy of Bloomberg), driving record-high stock valuations amid overstated job and GDP growth that get revised lower in retrospect. Realists see all this and everything else within the historical context.   With assets priced for perfection, there’s no room for disappointment. The […]

May 23, 2024 | Debtasized: How Our Reliance on Credit Leads To Price Inflation

Easy credit pushed up the price of existence for all by enabling unsustainable demand. Now we have the payback period. The video below from Doug Hoyes and Co is worth watching. I found playing it at 1.25x speed was more comfortable. Debt Free in 30 takes viewers on a journey through credit history, price inflation, […]

May 22, 2024 | Danielle on Thoughtful Money

Danielle was a return guest on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.

May 21, 2024 | Buy Now Pay Later was Always a Bad Idea

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is much worse than layaway plans of yore. Layaway plans allowed people to make installments toward an item and pick it up on the last payment. BNPL allows people to take the item with the promise to pay for it in installments over time. Cash-strapped consumers have been using BNPL […]

May 20, 2024 | Envisioning Bottom Up Energy Systems

An extremely important and enlightening discussion. The energy future is bright!! Worth listening. Here’s a direct audio link.  

May 17, 2024 | Danielle on Thoughtful Money

Danielle was a return guest on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.   If you haven’t seen the 2022 film Dumb Money, it’s worth a look. Here’s the trailer link. Evidently, the capital wipeout from 2021 through 2023 was not enough to kill the gambling fever, see Is the […]

May 16, 2024 | Energy Evolution Booming for Economic Reasons

Despite naysayers who continually miss forests for trees, energy technology is rapidly evolving globally and “S” curve adoption is proceeding apace. With a shrinking population and rising unemployment, China sees the imperative of improving efficiency and lowering operating costs through technology. To this end, the country is leading the world in the production of electric […]

May 15, 2024 | China Ready To Write Down Real Estate Values. Who’s Next?

Governments worldwide are looking for ways to “ease the real estate crisis” now sweeping much of the developed world. The most popular ideas seek to prop up prices while enabling new buyers to obtain even more credit. After decades of epic malinvestment in real estate, China is at the forefront of the spreading property crisis. […]

May 13, 2024 | Canada Needs Bold New Focus on Net Income Enhancement

More malinvestment in propping up asset prices and the status quo is the opposite of what’s needed. The focus has to be on investments and incentives that increase longer-term efficiency and net income (with full cost accounting for the waste and harm created by different business models and revenue streams). Andrew Grantham, senior economist at […]

May 12, 2024 | Danielle on CBC Weekend Business Panel

The CBC News Network Weekend Business panel takes a look at the top stories of the week. Here is a direct video link. 

May 10, 2024 | Monetary Easing Tends To Be Contagious and No Quick Fix

This week, the Swedish central bank followed Switzerland in becoming the second G10 nation to ease base rates in the banking system. Both cited weakening economic activity. The Bank of Canada is expected to follow suit this summer, with 45% of outstanding Canadian mortgages up for renewal this year and next. Most were taken out when […]

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