- the source for market opinions


August 19, 2019 | The Deep State Reality

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong Isn’t the FBI a government agency? In this case, they are paid with “the people” tax money? Aren’t they supposed to be neutral, I mean, they should be “incorruptible”? They should not take a position for the left or the right. They should be there for “Justice”? Can you explain? Many […]

August 19, 2019 | Negative Interest Rates Are Not Normal

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. – William Shakespeare, Hamlet POITOU, FRANCE – Every week, we reach new heights of weirdness: …the worldwide total of debt trading at negative interest rates rose to $17 trillion… …nearly 15% of S&P 500 companies no longer earn enough money to even cover the interest on their loans… […]

August 19, 2019 | The Next Breakdown And The Setup

If you’ve been following our research long enough, you’ll remember that we often discuss Fibonacci Price Theory and how we use it to try to identify opportunities and trends in the markets.  The basic premise of Fibonacci Price Theory is that price is always seeking to establish newer highs or newer lows with every rotation […]

August 19, 2019 | Rosenberg: Global Recession Coming, No Quick Path Out

“This is going to be a capital-spending-led recession,”Rosenberg, the senior economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates told BNN Bloomberg in an interview on Thursday. “The consumer will follow like a domino…. “We don’t have the traditional fiscal, or, certainly monetary policy bullets anywhere in the world to fight the next recession,” he said. […]

August 19, 2019 | A Challenge to Get Short, No?

The selloff from late July’s record peaks seems likely to resume once the last short has been exhausted by wild, daily price swings.  Any rally attempt feels doomed, if only because it has been so challenging to get short lately. Whether the broad averages will need to pop to new record highs or merely poke […]

August 19, 2019 | National Average Rent Inches Up by $3 Per Month

The increase in national average rents slowed to a crawl in July but year-over-year rates are up 3.4%. As the peak rental season is nears its end, the Rent Cafe reports Apartment Rent Increases Lose Steam. Key Takeaways The national average rent reached $1,469 in July, up by 3.4% ($48) year-over-year, and 0.2% ($3) month-over-month, according […]

August 19, 2019 | Down She Goes

In the fog of macroeconomics, people live their lives and try to make good daily decisions. So while the inverted yield curve and Modern Monetary Theory are interesting, what your mom wants is w-a-y more relevant. Bob knows. Here’s his real-life question, after which we’ll get esoteric. I’m in a situation where my mother and […]

August 18, 2019 | Inflation Has Eroded the U.S. and Chinese Economies

One day, the China trade imbalance is such a national emergency that you’re willing to disrupt hundreds of billions in world trade and risk a global recession to set it right. The next, you call it off because it might interfere with the Christmas shopping season. That was the big news yesterday. Once again, Trump […]

August 18, 2019 | The Adjustment Bureau

(Note: I started this editorial a few days ago and have had to edit it and update charts several times along the way. Things are moving fast, and the days of low volatility are over, perhaps for an extended period. That’s great for gold but do not lose sight that we’ve entered a dangerous market […]

August 18, 2019 | Any Rally Attempt Seems Doomed

The selloff from late July’s record peaks seems likely to resume once the last short has been exhausted by wild, daily price swings.  Any rally attempt feels doomed, if only because it has been so challenging to get short lately. Whether the broad averages will need to pop to new record highs or merely poke […]

August 18, 2019 | What Do the Demonstrators in Hong Kong Want?

After watching the demonstrations over in Hong Kong for the past two weeks my question is ‘what do these demonstrators really want’? I think I know! The word is ‘Freedom’. The demonstrators desire continuing freedom from a dictatorial hierarchy in the mainland who desire to control their behavior. It is natural for the young in Hong […]

August 18, 2019 | Negative Yields Tell A Story Of Shifting Economic Leadership

Negative yields are becoming common for many of the world’s most mature economies.  The process of extending negative yields within these economies suggests that safety is more important than returns and that central banks realize that growth and increases in GDP are more important than positive returns on capital.  In the current economic environment, this […]

August 18, 2019 | The Greater Snafu

If you tried to access this pathetic blog on Sunday and came up empty, well, sorry. If you managed to hit the site but found yourself sitting in an empty, lonely landscape of commentlessness, you did better than me. Void. Nothingness. Blog withdrawal. Webmaster William was all over the issue, which turned out to be […]

August 18, 2019 | What I Learned at Camp Kotok

I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp and the mood was decidedly different this year. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago. CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed” but it […]

August 17, 2019 | Will Governments ever Listen Before there is Blood in the Streets?

COMMENT: Thank you for ‘Why Private Blogs’. You should get goose bumps once in a while about your work~, the project is massive in scale, certainly worthy of my respect and everyone else in readerville and your employ as well. This piece is well written and also lays out a good mission statement reminder to […]

August 17, 2019 | Markopolos: GE Accounting Fraud Larger than ENRON

After a year-long investigation, renowned Madoff whistleblower and financial analyst Harry Markopolos and company have released a 175-page report to regulators declaring General Electric guitly of the largest insurance fraud ever.  The report alleges that GE has a “long history” of accounting fraud, dating back to as early as 1995 when it was run by […]

August 17, 2019 | Hong Kong: Chaos Before the Order

When Fox News talking head Kathleen “KT” McFarland had ex-Reagan stooge Michael Pillsbury on her “Defcon 3” web show in 2014 to discuss the so-called Umbrella Movement protests which were then raging across Hong Kong, she got more than she bargained for. Noting that “Chinese state-owned media” were alleging that the protests were “all the […]

August 17, 2019 | PART II – Silver, Transports, and Dow Jones Index At Targets – What Direct Next?

As you can probably imagine, we’ve received a ton of emails and questions about our recent predictions for precious metals and the August 19 breakdown date in the global markets.  It seems everyone is reading our research posts and is curious about how to prepare for these moves and how we came up with these […]

August 17, 2019 | Trading Desk Notes – August 17

Markets continue to aggressively reprice interest rates lower. There have been massive capital flows into bond funds, the US long bond has hit a record low yield and the sum of negative yield bonds continues to rise. Capital is seeking a safe haven not only because slowing global economies and rising recession risks are expected to […]

August 16, 2019 | Oil and Credit Strains Leading Banks and TSX Lower

Rising precious metals stocks this summer have, so far, managed to hold the Canadian stock market (TSX) above the 16,000 level where it has languished, flat since 2017.  Material stocks, however, make up just 10% of the index overall. Energy stocks, the second-largest sector weight at 19%, have been losing since oil prices hit a […]

August 16, 2019 | Which Horse to Ride: Plausible Competing US Dollar Views….

We have two seemingly equally plausible views for the direction of the US dollar; i.e. key juncture time we suspect. Comdols appear relatively cheap, but no doubt would suffer on a big “risk off” event. The euro and yen (plus swiss) have been playing have roles, yet that could change quickly, at least for the […]

August 16, 2019 | Difference Between Hyperinflation and Currency Inflation

QUESTION: What is the difference between asset inflation and hyperinflation? I believe you are saying that from Jan 2020 we will see inflation which I understand to be asset inflation? Thanks FL ANSWER: Asset inflation is typically a reflection of a decline in the value of the currency, but this can be 50% over the course of […]

August 16, 2019 | Sentiment Changing and This Means Trouble!

Consumer sentiment is down from prior highs, rental housing is down from prior highs, China is slowing, Europe is slowing, Argentina is crashing, Venezuela is in a depression, Iran/Russia/Turkey are suffering from U.S. sanctions. The markets are gradually imploding as events continue to play out globally. The moral climate is deteriorating with this Epstein saga. I […]

August 16, 2019 | Gold is Not a Function of the US Dollar Nor is Gold an Inflation Hedge

Swings in the US dollar have no long-term impact in the price of gold. Nor is gold an inflation hedge. Three Points December 2004: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $435 April 2009: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $883 November 2014: US Dollar Index 108, Gold $1182 Gold vs Trade-Weighted Dollar Index 1973-Present While gold generally […]

August 16, 2019 | The Strange World of Negative Interest Rates

For most of my four-decade career, interest rates have been much higher than today. In the late 1970s, and for most of the 1980s, interest rates were consistently above 10 percent. In the last five years a new phenomenon appeared that most observers thought could never happen: Negative interest rates on government bonds. What are […]

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