- the source for market opinions


January 23, 2018 | Flip City

Vancouver is so pooched. There are just two things locals should expect. Either houses cost $5 million each (at least) in a few years and the market seizes up – since nobody could buy and owners would fear selling – or it crashes and burns. What Comrade John Horgan and his provincial government do in […]

January 23, 2018 | General Electric in Full Retreat

BALTIMORE – The titans of one era become the schmucks of the next. Marshal Michel Ney, one of France’s greatest soldiers, was executed by his own people… who later put up a statue of him in Paris. General Robert E. Lee was revered by both sides in the War Between the States; statues were later […]

January 23, 2018 | Key Observations on Record Exuberance, Returns and Late Cycle Prospects

This years marks the ninth year of the expansion cycle that began in 2009, the second longest in recorded history, and an ominous 37-year high in investor confidence.  Free-to-cheat-and-steal-financial intermediaries, greased by ludicrous liquidity gifts from central banks, have had a hell-of-a run–the past 5 years, in particular.  Monetary conditions have never been more easy, volatility […]

January 23, 2018 | Tips for Swimming in Shark-Infested Water

Here’s a Bloomberg headline that will have grabbed zero attention: Tech Stocks Are Showing Signs of Overheating.  I swear I didn’t make that up. Some guy on the copy desk, challenged to whet readers’ appetite for a gratuitous stock-market article written by one Luke Kawa, tried to oversell it as best he could. It reminds me […]

January 23, 2018 | Discover Your Investment Personality

“If you chase two rabbits, you will not catch either one.” — Russian proverb There is one pillar of the nest egg you want to get right. It makes such a difference! Each of us has a distinct investment personality. Think of it as personalized investing DNA. Hopefully, it resembles our comfortable tolerance for risks. […]

January 22, 2018 | Do Commitment of Traders & Inventories Really Matter?

QUESTION: Do you think that the Commitment of Traders and reported inventories are relevant to gauge market performance? ANSWER: The oldest game in town is manipulating inventories. Commodities can be stored at many places, but only selected facilities are on the reporting list. During the famous Buffet Silver scandal of 1997-1998, to justify taking silver up in price they had […]

January 22, 2018 | Ding Dong… The Witch Ain’t Dead

BALTIMORE – Oh, Dear Reader, imagine our alarm! Feel our pain! We were like the boy who saw on the news that his school was on fire. When we left the office on Friday… the federal government was just hours from shutting down! We crossed our fingers… and dreamt of Eden. As St. Paul might […]

January 22, 2018 | The ugly truth

Like a lot of people in her oily city, Tina can’t sell her condo. Well, not for what she thinks it’s worth. Or what she paid ($380,000). So when she moved into Bryan’s place (a semi) she decided to rent it. The going rate is $1,300 for a one-bedder, which she got. But, oops, the […]

January 22, 2018 | An Old-Timer Remembers…Corrections

The Dow’s 142-point gain on Monday was more or less obligatory, since bulls are wont to begin each new week with a show of strength. I hesitate to call it bravado, since there’s nothing to suggest any lack of confidence beneath the surface. The 25,215 close left the blue chip average about a thousand points […]

January 22, 2018 | Two Factors for Gold That You Don’t Want to Miss

Even though mining stocks closed last week below the Jan. 2 close and silver even declined below the Dec 31, 2017 close, gold moved higher. It’s not far from this year’s top either. So, is all well and are bullish gold price forecasts justified? Not necessarily. In today’s article, we show you two reasons why […]

January 22, 2018 | New Phase in “America First” Blatant Tariff Stupidity

Heaven forbid consumers in the US get a break. Trump wants none of it. I have idea. Let’s raise prices and at the same time kill anything clean energy has going for it. We call this policy “America First”. The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Sets New Trade Tariffs, Signaling New Phase in ‘America First’ […]

January 22, 2018 | Index Trend Trade Setups for the SP500 & NASDAQ

Over the past few weeks, we have been writing about our US major price predictions for the beginning of 2018 and how they have played out.  If you have been following our analysis, you have already learned that we predicted a 3~5% price increase in early January 2018 for most of the US major equity […]

January 21, 2018 | Dow Races Toward an ‘Interesting’ Number

When the week ended, the Dow was racing toward a 27251 target I posted here two weeks ago. The blue chip average was trading for around 25,300 at the time, and I would not have expected it to be closing on my number so soon. However, we’re getting more accustomed to this kind of price […]

January 21, 2018 | Morons

Allan is amused at this pathetic blog. He read the post last week about that trash listing in hipster Toronto asking $750,000, and said, “it probably wouldn’t even warrant a Tweet here in Sydney, since sometime in 2016…” The Australian is correct. We’re nuts, real estate-obsessed and terminally house horny. Aussies, however, are certifiably insane. […]

January 21, 2018 | What Will Rising Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2?

Oops, they’re already rising. The US government bond market has further soured this week, with Treasuries selling off across the spectrum. When bond prices fall, yields rise. For example, the two-year Treasury yield rose to 2.06% on Friday, the highest since September 2008. In the chart, note the determined spike of 79 basis points since […]

January 21, 2018 | Amazon’s Fully-Automated Grocery Store (No-Checkout) Opens Monday

The no-checkout process starts Monday. Here’s the concept: Go into a store. Pick up stuff. Walk out. After a year of delays, Amazon’s Cashierless ‘Go’ Convenience Store Set to Open. Nearly a year after it was promised, Inc.’s cashierless convenience store is slated to open to the public on Monday. The new Amazon Go […]

January 21, 2018 | U. S. Government Shut-down – then DOW of 30,000 to follow? Why this Result?

What happens after a dire event is that our corrupt Central Bank traders (using their high-speed computers and their trading algorithms) pump up the DOW and the other indexes to cover-up the pain. I have witnessed this paradox many times these past 9 years. A dire event happens and then the DOW sky-rockets to another […]

January 21, 2018 | A Fly in the Economic Ointment?

The holidays are fading from memory, and 2018 is off to a good start, economically speaking. Most of the forecasts I’ve read expect a good year – not a blockbuster year or a horrendous one, but a mild pickup that ought to satisfy investors. Even the bears seem less confident than usual. The holidays are […]

January 21, 2018 | The Financial Press Just Admitted the Markets are a Sham

Sometimes the truest of hard truths are to be found smack dab in the middle of the fakest of fake news. You just have to read between the lines. Take a recent story that bubbled up amid all the hype about the all-time record highs in the “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?” manipulated stock markets. You […]

January 20, 2018 | Government Shutdowns – Just Politics?

The Trump was preparing for at least a weekend-long partial government shutdown Friday night, expressing little confidence that Congress could pass a bill by the midnight deadline to keep the government open. Trump canceled a scheduled trip to his Palm Beach resort on Friday as he met with the top Senate Democrat to try to […]

January 20, 2018 | ‘This Time is Different’ and the Same Old Speculative Fever

Economist David McWilliams has a rare command of historical context, the independence to speak freely, and an Irish gift for storytelling.  His recent article: Four very expensive words ‘This time is different’, is worth reading.  Here are a few highlights: There is a huge difference between speculating and investing. The speculator typically starts with a little […]

January 20, 2018 | Which Option: Government Shut-down or Central Bank Shut-down?

To solve our political and economic problems we could shut-down the Central Government in Washington (which appears to be happening as I write this missive) or we might shut-down our Central Bank in New York. Which would be preferable? You know my view. Our unconstitutional Central Bank needs to be shut-down!   We need to […]

January 20, 2018 | Trading Desk Notes – Jan 20th

The key aspect of market psychology so far this year has been a willingness to aggressively take on risk. We have seen aggressive buying of stocks and aggressive selling of bonds and the US Dollar. The leading global stock market indices keep rising as risk appetite keeps rising and FOMO seems to be the driving force. Bank of America reports […]

January 19, 2018 | After the Next Crash

BALTIMORE – What’s that in the distance? It looks like a cloud of dust barely visible on the horizon. It’s the relief column, sent from Ft. Fed! Hooray! —   Confidence of the Damned And yes, it is still a long way off… As far as anyone can see, there’s no need for relief now. […]

January 19, 2018 | The Hunt for Taxes Brings Down Governments Every Time

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I live in Germany. I wanted to send my father €200 for Christmas. I had to prove where the money came from. It does seem as if there is a major gap between those trading the euro for big banks and the people. I left Romania for freedom. Everything that I fled from […]

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