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August 17, 2022 | Canada to Launch Digital Identity Program

Trudeau is pushing forth the Great Reset at any cost. Canada will impose a federal “Digital Identity Program” to help the World Economic Forum develop a global ID system. Since the COVID passports failed, they are outright demanding that everyone carry proof of their digital identity. Canada’s Digital Ambition 2022 report revealed the details of […]

August 17, 2022 | Recessions: Best Prepared For Than Ignored

Recessions are a regular resetting part of economic cycles measured as a multi-quarter decline in five key indicators: real gross domestic product (GDP), income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. While recessions always bring down commodity prices and inflation, they are dreaded because they also reduce revenues, profits, employment, asset prices, and the ability to service […]

August 17, 2022 | South Korea Offers Olive Branch to the North

Russia recently claimed that it had been a close friend of North Korea since World War II, when Japanese forces were expelled from the peninsula. In a celebratory speech, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol mentioned how the end of Japan’s colonization was a win for both Koreas, albeit leading to their nasty divorce. Yoon […]

August 16, 2022 | Wild Abandon Bounces Back

As risk markets have rebounded over the past month, FOMO has resumed with retail flows moving back to the sketchiest and over-valued securities and shorts being forced to buy back positions. The basket of most-shorted stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs is up almost 39% this quarter. As shown below (from Goldman Sachs Prime), the past month has […]

August 16, 2022 | No Renewal For You

Desjardins is joining a growing chorus of housing bears, calling for further price declines in the nations housing market this year. The bank is now calling for a 25% drop from peak to trough in the average sales price nationally. Keep in mind the average sales price is skewed predominantly by the GTA, and a change […]

August 15, 2022 | Argentina Raises Interest Rate to 69.5%

Argentina is out of options. I reported on the ongoing widespread protests occurring across the country. The majority of the nation is unemployed, and the currency is basically worthless. The people can no longer rely on the socialistic promises as the government is unable to fund its programs. Basic necessities are no longer available, and the people […]

August 15, 2022 | Commodities Slump with Global Growth Outlook

Overnight, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that retail sales grew by 2.7% in July-nearly half as much as the consensus forecast of 5%. Industrial production also missed the 4.6% estimate with an increase of 3.8% as the Chinese economy joined the US in shrinking during the second quarter. China’s GDP grew by just 2.5% in the […]

August 14, 2022 | The IRS Targets the Poorest Americans

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) claims that they will not target lower and middle-class Americans under their staff expansion. This is a lie a they already target the poorest households at five times the rate of other income brackets. Trac IRS examined the audit figures from FY 2021. The IRS audited 659,003 returns last year […]

August 14, 2022 | New Record Highs Coming?

Is the stock market on its way to new record highs? The thought would have seemed preposterous just a week ago, when the Dow’s still-presumptive bear rally had yet to exceed even a single peak on the daily chart. But it did so last Wednesday, with a gap-up opening that demonstrated how spectacular daily gains […]

August 14, 2022 | Curving Toward Stagflation

The latest data shows inflation is still with us at an 8.5% annual rate. That means we can expect the Fed to keep tightening, trying to reduce demand and relieve pressure on consumer prices. At the same time, we’ve seen declining GDP growth the last two quarters. Some people raise measurement issues. Fine. Grant that […]

August 13, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For August 13, 2022

Global stock markets continue the rally from the June lows, S+P up ~18%, NAZ up 23%, AAPL up 33% The S+P, DJI and VTI (Vanguard total stock market ETF) have recovered >50% of their decline from the January All-Time Highs to the 20-month lows made around the mid-June FOMC meeting – when the Fed raised […]

August 12, 2022 | The Official Recession Label Will Come Much Too Late To Be Useful

The probability of recession in the U.S. is high. The popular definition of recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — has already occurred. But there is no official declaration of recession, yet. Why the delay in calling a recession? Some people argue that a U.S. recession has started. The test of two consecutive […]

August 12, 2022 | Grantham: Bear Market Update

As stocks rebound on disinflation data and hope for less central bank tightening, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is +21% from its June low but remains -18% from its November high. Meanwhile, commodity speculators are back to bidding up prices even as excess inventory of many goods mounts and global demand contracts. Bonne chance tout la monde. […]

August 11, 2022 | Democrats Scorched Earth Policy

Hillary Clinton is using the tyrannical Mar-a-Lago raid to sell merchandise. Clinton began promoting “but her emails” clothing only a day after Trump’s personal residence was stormed. That seems to be a quick turnaround time considering everyone claims the raid blindsided them. She is blatantly bragging that intelligence agencies never came after her in any […]

August 11, 2022 | Tracking Grizzly Bears

This morning (so far), stocks and bonds are rebounding on relief that US CPI in July eased to 8.5% (consensus forecast was 8.7%) from 9.1% in June, suggesting that the US Fed may hike less than 75 bps in September. The drop in price pressure was led primarily by disinflation in used vehicles, air travel, […]

August 11, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – August 2022

Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large part to dodge the pain […]

August 10, 2022 | IRS Staff and Audits Will Multiply

The Inflation Reduction Act will waste $430 billion and will do absolutely nothing to curb inflation. Around $300 billion will be spent on climate change initiatives. Clearly, that is not going to curb inflation, and paying farmers incentives for reducing emissions still does not change the fact that the current methods are the only way […]

August 10, 2022 | Contagion Between Public and Private Markets

The average sale price for a Toronto home in July was $1.02 million (Toronto Regional Real Estate Board), down $133,075 (11.5%) from June 2022 and +0.2 percent or $2,520 compared to July 2021. Sales were down 44%, and active listings were up 25%, while the stockpile of available homes was up 58% from a year […]

August 9, 2022 | Energy Rationing in Spain

Spain is yet another southern European country feeling the brunt of inflation. Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) reported that prices rose 10.8% in July, an increase from June’s 10.2% reading and May’s 8.5% level. This is the highest level of inflation for the nation since September 1984. Spain’s economy grew 1.1% in Q2, faring better […]

August 9, 2022 | Insane Governments Ruining Agriculture: 1930s Suffered Lysenkoism and in 2022 Nitrogen is Suddenly a Threat

As an historian of governments going from authoritarian to the even more regrettable totalitarianism, one wonders “Why?” harm agriculture. Sadly, that governments get into the mode of declaring war on countries as well as upon their own citizens can be criticized, but no amount of research can explain why.

August 9, 2022 | Australian House Prices Dropping at ‘Fastest Rate’ since 2008

The housing bust is not just happening in Canada… The housing market is turning as interest rate hikes spook buyers – and in bad news for those who don’t own, those rate hikes are also pushing up rents. Here is a direct video link.

August 9, 2022 | Is This Time Different?

     For the fourth time since 1988, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yield has moved below 0.0%.    As shown by the shaded areas on the chart, each of these time periods preceded U.S. recessions.                 1989:  Yield Inversion.  Recession                 2000:  Yield Inversion.  Recession                 2006:  Yield […]

August 9, 2022 | Why I’m More Bullish Than Ever

A subscriber asked if I was more bullish on silver than ever. I told him yes, I was. Them, it dawned on me that I may not have properly conveyed my strong feelings that silver may soon explode in price (and drag gold along with it). After nearly 40 years, I believe the silver manipulation […]

August 8, 2022 | FBI Raids Trump’s Home – DOJ Planning Indictment – End of the USA As We Have Known It

The Democrats are desperate to win in November and they are taking the United States down the drain in order to forcefully impose their will, or should I say the Great Reset. On the approaching 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, The Democrats are toying with what will most likely end […]

August 8, 2022 | Housing Bear in Early Stages

As prices rose, industry participants urged policymakers to stimulate supply with tax incentives and enable demand with easy credit; now that home prices are falling (as they should), the same people are urging policymakers to help prop prices up. 😊 Quick profit, not affordability, was always the goal and that golden goose is now dead. The giveback phase […]

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