July 17, 2025 | Staying Focused Through Noise

In a series of heart-stopping swings, since mid-December, the tech-heavy S&P 500 and Nasdaq are currently up 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the US dollar (as measured by the DXY) has fallen 10% against major trading partners. The more economically sensitive Dow Jones Index is down 2% since December, while the S&P 600 (small-cap companies) […]

July 16, 2025 | US Total Stocks Rise 9.0 Mb/d Last Week And Total US Demand Fell 1.68 Mb/d To 19.2 Mb/d. Pressure On Crude Prices Increases

Summary: President Trump is sending out his unilateral tariff deals. He is giving time for counterparties to come forward (by early August) with better deals that might provide some relief from exorbitant tariffs that would kill or end trade. Any tariff deal over 25% changes trade relations and makes trade nearly impossible. Crude oil is […]

July 16, 2025 | Downcycles Bring Opportunity For Those Who Can Resist Consensus Views

Toronto home sales rose 8.1% in June, but were still 35% below the decade’s average; the average home sale price dropped 5.2% year-over-year to $1,151,600. Condo sales in Toronto have declined by 75% over the past three years (-37% in Vancouver) and are down 22% from June 2024; at the same time, new listings are […]

July 16, 2025 | Japan & MNRA Studies

Some people are reporting that Japanese researchers were able to obtain vaccine and death records for 21 million people, and determined that those who died from MNRA came in “death waves” that took place 3-4 months after the injections, not right away. The data also reveal how long it takes for your death risk to […]

July 15, 2025 | Housing Bust Intensifies As Inventories Surge

One of the reasons so few houses were on the market over the past few years was the disparity between 7% current mortgage rates and the 3% mortgages that many homeowners had. It made no sense to sell a house with a cheap mortgage and buy a new house with an expensive mortgage, so millions […]

July 15, 2025 | UK Data Use and Access Act – Digital Wallets Coming

  The Data (Use and Access) Act, also known as the DUA Bill, has provided the UK government with the ability to roll out a series of programs that will eventually force citizens to participate in a digital ID program. The law was enacted with the premise of reinforcing security and providing convenience for businesses […]

July 14, 2025 | The World’s Largest Pension Fund Down $61B Last Quarter – Warning for Japan

The world’s largest pension fund, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, reported a $61.1 billion loss for the first quarter of the year. Half of the fund’s $1.5 trillion assets under management (AUM) are within overseas markets, and although susceptible to currency fluctuations, the true problem lies in the fund’s other 50% of its portfolio—government bonds […]

July 14, 2025 | Smart States Are Embracing Gold And Silver

  It’s nice that states are separating themselves into “smart” and “stupid” categories so Americans can tell where and where not to live. The issue of sound money, in particular, is indicative of a whole range of other likely tax/spend/regulate policies that affect quality of life. Let’s start with a flashing “don’t move here” signal […]

July 14, 2025 | The Only Game in Town

Happy Monday Morning! Last week we wrote a piece titled ‘The Next Shoe to Drop’ in which we suggested CMHC’s exposure to the rental market had gotten so large, so quick, it’s created quite the dilemma. The program in question is called the CMHC MLI select. An insurance product that helps finance rental housing by […]

July 14, 2025 | The Great Unraveling Brings Pain and Remorse

If we had a loonie for every person who believed, “You can never lose money in real estate.”  Unfortunately, many well-meaning older folks ignorantly aided and abetted younger folks into a massive housing bubble. Many are doing the same thing now with corporate securities markets back at historic highs. The masses are increasingly realizing and regretting capital […]

July 13, 2025 | Uncertain Moments

We like to say markets don’t lie. That may be so, but they can certainly send mixed signals. It happened last week when President Trump announced tariff rates on several important trade partners not so different from the ones he set back in April. Back then, stocks swooned, the dollar cratered, and bond yields soared. […]

July 13, 2025 | Jesse Colombo: Silver Has Broken Out

Jesse Colombo’s Bubble Bubble Report produces a lot of high-quality, in-depth reporting on precious metals. His latest digs into silver’s technicals and concludes that the long-anticipated run to $50 and beyond is now underway. Here’s an excerpt: Silver’s Bull Market Has Officially Begun Silver has officially broken out in a big way, kicking off its bull market. […]

July 13, 2025 | AI Story Gooses Stocks into the Ozone

Nvidia became the world’s first $4 trillion company last week, leapfrogging Microsoft, Tesla, Google and every other company struggling to stay in the AI game.  Our money is on Musk to compete the hardest. He is Nvidia’s biggest customer for their most powerful chips, which sell for as much as $200,000. Musk has been buying […]

July 13, 2025 | Will Mass Deporation Harm US GDP?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas believes that mass deportation efforts will negatively impact US GDP. Projections speculate that GDP could decline by nearly a percentage point in 2025, followed by larger cuts in the coming years. GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS FACTORED INTO GDP. I have repeatedly warned that Donald Trump would be blamed for the […]

July 12, 2025 | The Illusion of Democracy

July 12, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 12, 2025

The bull market in risk assets continues Bitcoin reached new all-time highs this week, up ~60% from the April lows. Silver surged to a 14-year high, up ~42% from the April lows. Copper hit all-time highs of ~$5.90 (basis September Comex), up ~43% from April lows. Comex copper futures surged from ~$5.00 to ~$5.90 (~18%) in four […]

July 12, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 12th 2025

The Bottom Line Focus this week is on second quarter earnings reports released by companies in the U.S. Financial Services sector. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com The second quarter earnings season is off to a good start: 20 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date. 71% reported earnings […]

July 11, 2025 | Tariffs Miss The Mark on U.S. Copper

Copper prices surged this week after Donald Trump announced a 50% import tariff starting August 1, aiming to boost U.S. self-sufficiency. But for copper, the move is more optics than impact — it won’t kick-start domestic output anytime soon, and manufacturers (and consumers) will foot the bill. Global supply remains constrained despite copper’s crucial role […]

July 11, 2025 | Boomers: Sell Now and Avoid the Rush?

Are you a baby boomer that needs the equity in your home to fund your retirement? If so, you might want to take action sooner rather than later because most boomers no longer have the choice of playing the long game when it comes to recovering from home equity losses. I say that because we […]

July 11, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, Epstein Edition

Let’s just put it out there: Team Trump has decided to hold onto the Epstein files and use them to blackmail swamp creatures. This makes strategic sense, but leaves the administration looking us in the eye and lying, apparently in the hope that something else will come along to distract us shortly (maybe another pandemic?) But […]

July 11, 2025 | Paid To Look The Other Way

Timeless perspective is offered in this segment…the more things stay the same. In this episode of The Real Eisman Playbook, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Gretchen Morgenson discusses her career in investigative journalism, focusing on the dark side of Wall Street, the AIG scandal, and the financial crisis. She highlights the role of private equity in modern […]

July 11, 2025 | June Minutes Report Decoded

  The Minutes Report by the Federal Reserve indicates that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29-30. FOMC members unanimously maintained the borrowing range between 4.25%-4.5% where it has stood since December 2024. The central bank knows that it has limited power to […]

July 10, 2025 | Market Pulse – July 10/25

Stocks were up slightly on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 17.20 (0.27%) Heatmap of S&P 500 The S&P 500 is currently approaching a critical zone where two major resistance levels (red lines) are converging. This area could act as a strong ceiling for further gains. On the downside, initial support lies along the lower […]

July 10, 2025 | A Closer Look At Germany’s Death Spiral

Subscriber Bill G responded to yesterday’s post on Germany’s financial/cultural death spiral by asking: “And when did debt to GDP cease to be a good measure of economic health? https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/germany/usa?sc=XE02” His point is that if Germany’s government debt is only 65% of GDP, that country is — by definition— in way better shape than the US […]