- the source for market opinions


June 16, 2021 | Why

Three sleeps until I meet Arysha. She was born in Russia, bred and shipped to America. By three she’d had two litters and was acquired by a Canadian military vet with a passion for the breed. The cross-border dog trade is a big one, pandemics be damned. By then she’d been chipped and registered in […]

June 16, 2021 | The Trend Is Your Friend Until It Isn’t – Dow Jones And Transportation Index Breaching Critical Price Support Ahead Of FOMC Meeting

Over the past few weeks, we have watched the markets continue their attempt to melt higher. Recently the Down Jones and the Transportation Index have breached a lower upward sloping support channel that suggests traders are preparing for a surprise Fed statement or a breakdown in the current bullish price trend.  My team and I […]

June 16, 2021 | America’s Middle Class Will Pay the Price

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We’re in a rush this morning. No time to write a short message. We’ll have to send you a long one. First, here’s Business Insider with a news update: Michael Burry said markets were in a bubble of unprecedented scale. The “Big Short” investor tweeted his dire warning after a 10-week break from Twitter. […]

June 16, 2021 | Fintech Designed to Profit off ‘Dumb’ Money

There’s an inside joke in finance that I first heard in the 1990s:  “We take your money and our experience and make it our money and your experience.” A popular fintech trope today is all about democratizing capital markets and helping little people to access the opportunities that insiders do.  Nothing could be further from the […]

June 15, 2021 | A Bidding War With BlackRock

The Covid housing boom has spurred new riches for Canadian homeowners. Household net worth surged 21.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, the largest gain on record. Indeed rising home prices, at least on paper, are making Canadians feel wealthier. To no surprise, households that own their home accounted for almost all of the gains in the […]

June 15, 2021 | Inflation Worries Continue

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – That was fast! Already… the inflation threat is over. Bloomberg tells us more: With investors anxious to hear the Federal Reserve’s latest take on inflation after last week’s hot reading, certain corners of the market are already simmering down. Take lumber, one of the biggest gainers among commodities in the past year […]

June 15, 2021 | Solving the Global Chip Shortage

Good overview of global semiconductor production in this segment.  As usual, disruptions in the past year have focused minds on how to boost supply and diversify production. A global chip shortage is affecting how quickly we can drive a car off the lot or buy a new laptop. WSJ visits a fabrication plant in Singapore […]

June 15, 2021 | Chilled, not shaken

Are you feelin’ frothy? Bubbly? Along with those frisky Kiwis and sexy Swedes, Bloomberg Economics says we have the most emotional (and therefore likely unstable) housing market in the world, along with New Zealand and Sweden. Why? “A cocktail of ingredients,” we’re told, including cheap loans, bushels of government money, FOMO, a shortage of listings […]

June 15, 2021 | Catch the ‘Crest’ as Europe Implodes

They call it the fisherman’s prayer … “Dear Lord, be good to me. Thy sea is so great, and my boat is so small.” But they might as well call it the investor’s prayer. Because in the global economy, even a large portfolio is a tiny boat on a storm-tossed sea. And not only that, but the […]

June 15, 2021 | Vaccine & Employer Mandates

Houston Methodist Hospital is telling employees that if they refuse to take the vaccine, they will be fired. Now 117 employees have joined a lawsuit against the hospital, and they are saying that the hospital is trying to force people to take an experimental vaccine. Instead, the dictatorial hospital management is comparing it to the […]

June 14, 2021 | World Economic Leaders Promote “More Spending”

Americans are getting stronger. Twenty years ago, it took two people to carry ten dollars’ worth of groceries. Today, a five-year-old can do it. – A Henny Youngman quote sent by a dear reader YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Newsflash from the G7 summit in Cornwall! Here’s the Financial Times: Biden wins backing from G7 leaders to “carry […]

June 14, 2021 | Going Hyper

As the pandemic passes, will puppies get cheaper? How about plywood? Or properties? These are odd days. The virus hit. The economy cratered. Government freaked. Jobs were lost. Lockdowns, quarantines and restrictions hit, which are only now (15 months later) being peeled back. And yet during this time the price of almost everything swelled like […]

June 14, 2021 | How HIGH Can It Fly? Tilray And Cannabis ETF (MJ) Prepare To Rally 25% More To The Upside

Over the past few weeks, a unique opportunity continues to unfold in the Cannabis & Marijuana sector.  I highlighted this near the end of May 2021 with a research article showing how a multiple upside price wave setup may start to unfold after a recent momentum base/bottom setup across various cannabis/marijuana sector symbols.  The confluence […]

June 14, 2021 | Average Age of Cars & Trucks on the Road Jumps to Record: The Circular Problem for Automakers

The average age of all cars and light trucks on the road in 2021 in the US, regardless of how many times they have been traded, jumped by about two months from last year, to a record of 12.1 years, according to IHS Markit today. “Average age” means that a portion of the vehicles are […]

June 13, 2021 | Resistance is not Futile – The Little Guy Can Win

  The interesting thing about small dogs is they do not realize they are small. We need to think the same way. For years I have watched the pros focus on statistics and get caught by surprise. The stats reflect what the average person already did last month, quarter, or year. Plenty of times I […]

June 13, 2021 | The Tort

Corey’s in crisis. Life was all plotted, the way lawyers like it. Predictable path: career first, then wife, then house. Clause by clause. Motion, discovery and deposition. Alas, she split. So at 41 he has the means and motive, but no opportunity. Naturally (as all troubled lawyers do) he wrote me: “I make $200k plus […]

June 13, 2021 | State Budgets Shout ‘TOGA!!!!’

Flush with stimulus, the states are in a spending mood that can be summed up in a single word:  TOGA!!!!!  Take Oklahoma. Their latest budget reflects an annual increase of nearly 18%, according to report from the Associated Press. It includes bigger earmarks for education, corporate and personal tax cuts, credits for school choice and […]

June 13, 2021 | Politics with No Labels

You can’t always get what you want But if you try sometime you find You get what you need —by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards, 1969 There’s no way around it: Investing in public companies is always political. Corporations exist because governments charter these artificial entities and legally shield the owners (shareholders) from personal liability. […]

June 12, 2021 | Trading Desk Notes For June 12, 2021

A Powerful Key Turn Date at the end of March No market exists in splendid isolation. When any market moves, it impacts other markets – to some degree. When several markets reverse direction simultaneously, I call that a Key Turn Date (KTD) and see that as a powerful market signal. The power of the “signal” increases with the […]

June 11, 2021 | The Federal Reserve Has an Ulterior Motive

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Well… yesterday we got the news. If we have $100,000 in cash today… at the present rate of inflation, it will be worth only $95,000 by this time next year. Keep it up for 14 years, and half your money will be wiped out. Barron’s has the details: On a year-over-year basis, […]

June 11, 2021 | Higher Inflation Puts a Popular Investment at Risk

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased by 5 percent year-over-year, and 0.6 percent in the month of May – an annual rate of 7.2 percent. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy, rose even faster at 0.7 percent. What popular investment would lose 43 percent if this level of inflation […]

June 11, 2021 | Why the Cancellation of Keystone is Bad for the Climate, The Environment and Canada

As TC Energy officially abandons Keystone, scientist Blair King argues canceling Keystone neither reduces emissions nor Albertan oil production. By now we all know that President Biden has cancelled the Presidential Permit for the Keystone XL (KXL) pipeline. Needless to say, climate activists gleefully celebrated the decision. But, as I pointed out, cancelling KXL will not […]

June 11, 2021 | Mark Z. Jacobson on the Clean Energy Transition

Mark Z. Jacobson needs the patience of Job. Not only does he lead by example, living in a zero-emission house and drive a zero-emission car that consume zero energy to run (actually, he gets money back from the grid). He is a civil and environmental engineer who has held a doctorate in Atmospheric Sciences for […]

June 11, 2021 | The Here & Now

The fire chief replied to my letter and warned darkly about the dangers of “firing burning things up into the sky.” But no, he said, there isn’t any local bylaw preventing a non-politically-correct guy from lighting the night on July the first. So I will. From the roof of the wee bank which, thankfully, is […]

June 10, 2021 | May 8th – the Turning Point & the Crack in Confidence

I have been warning that since 1999, there has been a shift in government where the UNELECTED bureaucrats seek to take over the country. I have warned that in my opinion, Trump was naive thinking that being president meant you really were in charge. For all of those who voted for Biden who did so […]

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