February 16, 2020 | Armstrong Ted Talk

February 16, 2020 | Depending on the Undependable

The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of [GDP].” —Simon Kuznets (who developed GDP), 1934 At the risk of restating the obvious, production should result in a product the producer can recognize. That’s the case even for intangible products. Artists know their songs even if hearing a pirate copy. This […]

February 16, 2020 | Why You Shouldn’t Borrow Too Much Money, China Edition

When the US housing bubble burst in 2007, most observers were focused on the threat to Wall Street banks and their massive derivatives books. This was a legitimate fear, since the worst case scenarios involved the death of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, with all the stock market carnage that that implied. But for […]

February 16, 2020 | Don’t listen

A day or two ago a mainstream media outlet wrote once again about houses and Millennials. People over 50 find this as interesting as gum surgery, but apparently the kids can’t get enough of it. There’s comfort in the collective notion moisters are being pooched by a system rigged against them. That’s media-trendy now. Like […]

February 15, 2020 | “Speculative Energy in the Market is Incredibly out of Control”

This market has been an astounding experience for people who’ve traded through the prior stock market bubbles and the last three crashes, who’ve seen a national and several regional housing bubbles form and implode, who’ve seen the subprime-auto-loan Asset Backed Securities bubble blow up in the mid-1990s and again during the Financial Crisis, and now […]

February 15, 2020 | It’s Not a Good Time to Start a Business

The Bloomberg Startup Barometer, a measure of business environment health, is in a steep plunge. The Bloomberg Startups Barometer is a weekly indicator that tracks the overall health of the business environment for private technology companies based in the U.S.The index peaked at 1545.32 on June 24, 2019. On February 10, 2020 it fell to 833.74. The […]

February 15, 2020 | Trading Desk Notes February 15, 2020

Commodities have been hammered since the virus became front page news…but bonds, gold, the US Dollar and stocks have all rallied…which begs the question, “Are markets anticipating a global economic slowdown exacerbated by the virus…or are they looking past that and anticipating massive fiscal and monetary stimulus?” Fears of a dramatic fall in Chinese demand […]

February 15, 2020 | Black Cygnet

“May you live in interesting times.” The quote above is, of course, Chinese and is also, of course, intended as a curse, not a blessing. It tells you a lot about China, a country with 5000 years of history. The Chinese have had more than their share of war and disruption. Interesting times don’t necessarily […]

February 14, 2020 | The Plunge

Buying a house is the ultimate human cocktail. Emotion boils. Because real estate is a social marker, everybody wants some. Since most people are financial illiterates, property is the ultimate and only strategy. It’s the one asset the bulk of people even know how to buy. Culture factors in, too, creating an irresistible parental pull, […]

February 14, 2020 | The 2020 Elections & the Coming Violence

Democracy is dying and it just looks like we have to go into the crash and burn. President Trump won more votes than any incumbent ever in history in New Hampshire. His rallies attract more people than any other and in most cases, all others combined. The Democrats have adopted such a left-wing agenda that […]

February 14, 2020 | Spotlight On The DOJ And JPMorgan

It has now been more than eleven years that I have been writing about the leading role that the US’ largest bank, JPMorgan, plays in the pricing of silver and gold. My suspicions that JPMorgan was the big silver and gold manipulator started shortly after the release of the August 2008 Bank Participation report, which […]

February 14, 2020 | A Currency Unit Tied to ‘Nothing’ is What? Let’s Think!

Today’s Wall Street Journal has a couple of articles on the nomination of Judy Shelton to the Fed Board. It appears that the morons on the Senate Banking Committee and a few additional monetary elites do not approve of her thinking on economic/monetary issues. This is likely due to her prior publications on issues of […]

February 14, 2020 | The Stock Market Looks Past the New Corona Virus

The coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China is causing worry all over the world, as the virus appears to cause severe sickness in about 20 percent of confirmed cases, and death in about 2 percent. The stock market is near record high levels, having taken a mild dip when the virus was first reported, and […]

February 14, 2020 | Guggenheim CIO: I’ve Never in My Career Seen Anything as Crazy as What’s Going on Right Now

The financial sales machine loves young articulate analysts who are smart and look good on camera but have little real cycle experience to impede perpetual optimism on corporate securities. Those of us who have lived through a few decades on the front line tend to have a more risk-conscious view–that is, at least, those who […]

February 14, 2020 | Is The Technology Sector Setting Up For A Crash? Part I

One thing that continues to amaze our research team is the total scale and scope of the Capital Shift which is taking place across the globe.  For almost 5+ years, foreign investors have been piling into the US stock market chasing the stronger US dollar and continued advancement of US share prices.  It is almost […]

February 13, 2020 | Why Bail-Ins in Europe Are Not Likely in the USA

The public was outraged over the use of tax dollars to bail out banks during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Act of January 2010, which eliminated the option of bank bailouts but opened the door for bank bail-ins. The problem was that the banks in trouble were […]

February 13, 2020 | Wall Street a Little Too Zen about Coronavirus

Stocks seem to be shrugging off disquieting news about the coronavirus a little too easily, so be careful.  Most of the bad news has concerned the apparent spreading of the disease more rapidly than had been anticipated just a week ago. Far from peaking, the virus seems to be gaining momentum. Wall Street took the […]

February 13, 2020 | Tax Me, Please

Okay, snowflakes, so it’s a stunt. But there are worrying political aspects of a manifesto this week – from Millennials – calling on Ottawa to immediately create a wealth tax, higher marginal tax rates and the closing of all tax breaks for the top 10% of income-earning Canadians (that’s anyone making $80,400 or more). What […]

February 13, 2020 | Rosenberg on Buyback Craze and Present Risks

Prudent risk managers have long since left the burning building.  Those still in stocks are either risk-blind, reckless or planning to hold always even as capital evaporates.  Most will liquidate after large losses when cash is short and redemption requests soar. Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn speaks to Rosenberg Research chief economist David Rosenberg about what […]

February 13, 2020 | Poetic Justice Coming For The 1%

To understand just how grim the coming decade is likely to be for the world’s super-rich, let’s start with three premises: 1) Capitalist democracy — defined as free individuals managing their own property and periodically electing new leaders — is the only system of social organization that’s consistent with human nature and is, therefore, sustainable. […]

February 13, 2020 | Predictive Modeling Suggests Gold Will Break Above $1650 Within 15~30 Days

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system is suggesting Gold will rally above $1650 within the next 2 to 4 weeks, then settle into a narrow price range above $1600.  If you’ve followed our analysis of Gold over the past few months and years, you already know we expect Gold to rally above $1750 this […]

February 13, 2020 | The One Chart You Need to See on Gold Miners

There is a big squeeze going on in gold miners right now. The last time this signal showed up, gold miners went soaring by 51%. The blast-off hasn’t happened yet. But if you get in before the blast-off, you could be in for a heck of a profitable ride. I’m talking about the squeeze in […]

February 12, 2020 | EUR/USD Daily View: A Bottom in Place? Maybe

We have been tracking for a while–since November 2019–the possible irregular flat correction pattern, whereby Wave (b) exceeds the beginning of Wave (a) and Wave (c) carries lower than Wave (a), as you can see in the chart below.  An extension for Wave (c) as a percentage of the Wave (a) in this type of […]

February 12, 2020 | Want “Bitcoin in 2017” Gains? Uranium May Be Your Best Bet

  If you want a shot at 10x, 20x, or even 100x winners over the next year or two, you have to look into speculating in the junior uranium sector. I’m not saying that it’s safe, easy, or even likely. The question you have to ask is: “Am I willing to risk significant losses in […]