July 14, 2025 | Smart States Are Embracing Gold And Silver

  It’s nice that states are separating themselves into “smart” and “stupid” categories so Americans can tell where and where not to live. The issue of sound money, in particular, is indicative of a whole range of other likely tax/spend/regulate policies that affect quality of life. Let’s start with a flashing “don’t move here” signal […]

July 14, 2025 | The Only Game in Town

Happy Monday Morning! Last week we wrote a piece titled ‘The Next Shoe to Drop’ in which we suggested CMHC’s exposure to the rental market had gotten so large, so quick, it’s created quite the dilemma. The program in question is called the CMHC MLI select. An insurance product that helps finance rental housing by […]

July 14, 2025 | The Great Unraveling Brings Pain and Remorse

If we had a loonie for every person who believed, “You can never lose money in real estate.”  Unfortunately, many well-meaning older folks ignorantly aided and abetted younger folks into a massive housing bubble. Many are doing the same thing now with corporate securities markets back at historic highs. The masses are increasingly realizing and regretting capital […]

July 13, 2025 | Uncertain Moments

We like to say markets don’t lie. That may be so, but they can certainly send mixed signals. It happened last week when President Trump announced tariff rates on several important trade partners not so different from the ones he set back in April. Back then, stocks swooned, the dollar cratered, and bond yields soared. […]

July 13, 2025 | Jesse Colombo: Silver Has Broken Out

Jesse Colombo’s Bubble Bubble Report produces a lot of high-quality, in-depth reporting on precious metals. His latest digs into silver’s technicals and concludes that the long-anticipated run to $50 and beyond is now underway. Here’s an excerpt: Silver’s Bull Market Has Officially Begun Silver has officially broken out in a big way, kicking off its bull market. […]

July 13, 2025 | AI Story Gooses Stocks into the Ozone

Nvidia became the world’s first $4 trillion company last week, leapfrogging Microsoft, Tesla, Google and every other company struggling to stay in the AI game.  Our money is on Musk to compete the hardest. He is Nvidia’s biggest customer for their most powerful chips, which sell for as much as $200,000. Musk has been buying […]

July 13, 2025 | Will Mass Deporation Harm US GDP?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas believes that mass deportation efforts will negatively impact US GDP. Projections speculate that GDP could decline by nearly a percentage point in 2025, followed by larger cuts in the coming years. GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS FACTORED INTO GDP. I have repeatedly warned that Donald Trump would be blamed for the […]

July 12, 2025 | The Illusion of Democracy

July 12, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 12, 2025

The bull market in risk assets continues Bitcoin reached new all-time highs this week, up ~60% from the April lows. Silver surged to a 14-year high, up ~42% from the April lows. Copper hit all-time highs of ~$5.90 (basis September Comex), up ~43% from April lows. Comex copper futures surged from ~$5.00 to ~$5.90 (~18%) in four […]

July 12, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 12th 2025

The Bottom Line Focus this week is on second quarter earnings reports released by companies in the U.S. Financial Services sector. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com The second quarter earnings season is off to a good start: 20 S&P 500 companies have reported results to date. 71% reported earnings […]

July 11, 2025 | Tariffs Miss The Mark on U.S. Copper

Copper prices surged this week after Donald Trump announced a 50% import tariff starting August 1, aiming to boost U.S. self-sufficiency. But for copper, the move is more optics than impact — it won’t kick-start domestic output anytime soon, and manufacturers (and consumers) will foot the bill. Global supply remains constrained despite copper’s crucial role […]

July 11, 2025 | Boomers: Sell Now and Avoid the Rush?

Are you a baby boomer that needs the equity in your home to fund your retirement? If so, you might want to take action sooner rather than later because most boomers no longer have the choice of playing the long game when it comes to recovering from home equity losses. I say that because we […]

July 11, 2025 | Art of the Collapse, Epstein Edition

Let’s just put it out there: Team Trump has decided to hold onto the Epstein files and use them to blackmail swamp creatures. This makes strategic sense, but leaves the administration looking us in the eye and lying, apparently in the hope that something else will come along to distract us shortly (maybe another pandemic?) But […]

July 11, 2025 | Paid To Look The Other Way

Timeless perspective is offered in this segment…the more things stay the same. In this episode of The Real Eisman Playbook, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Gretchen Morgenson discusses her career in investigative journalism, focusing on the dark side of Wall Street, the AIG scandal, and the financial crisis. She highlights the role of private equity in modern […]

July 11, 2025 | June Minutes Report Decoded

  The Minutes Report by the Federal Reserve indicates that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29-30. FOMC members unanimously maintained the borrowing range between 4.25%-4.5% where it has stood since December 2024. The central bank knows that it has limited power to […]

July 10, 2025 | Market Pulse – July 10/25

Stocks were up slightly on Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 17.20 (0.27%) Heatmap of S&P 500 The S&P 500 is currently approaching a critical zone where two major resistance levels (red lines) are converging. This area could act as a strong ceiling for further gains. On the downside, initial support lies along the lower […]

July 10, 2025 | A Closer Look At Germany’s Death Spiral

Subscriber Bill G responded to yesterday’s post on Germany’s financial/cultural death spiral by asking: “And when did debt to GDP cease to be a good measure of economic health? https://countryeconomy.com/countries/compare/germany/usa?sc=XE02” His point is that if Germany’s government debt is only 65% of GDP, that country is — by definition— in way better shape than the US […]

July 10, 2025 | Bulgaria Adopts the Euro and Abandons Economic Sovereignty

  Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro is a major step toward abandoning its remaining sovereignty. The European Union is akin to a drowning person clinging to anything nearby in an attempt to stay afloat. Bulgaria will become the 21st nation to adopt the euro beginning in January 2026. Protests against the adoption have been ongoing […]

July 9, 2025 | Macro Updates for Dog Days of Summer 2025

Economist Lacy Hunt offers a sobering look at the long-term economic forces shaping the U.S. outlook—and why inflation might already be in retreat, even as the Federal Reserve stays cautious. He argues that we’re in the midst of a disinflationary trend driven by excessive debt, declining velocity of money, and the structural weakening of global […]

July 9, 2025 | Crude Prices Vulnerable Due To Weak Demand And Growing Global Stocks (Especially In The US).

Summary: President Trump got to sign his ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” on Independence Day – July 4th with many positives in the bill. There are still areas of cuts for poor and lower middle income households that will give the Democrats lots of ammunition during the mid-term elections in November 2026. Republicans in swing districts will […]

July 9, 2025 | Europe’s Death Spiral: Now Germany Is the Problem

The flaws in Europe’s financial system — and the eurozone dissolution that will inevitably result — have been obvious for a while. Here’s a list of posts on this topic from the past few years: Can The Euro Be Saved? (4/23/23) Easy Money Makes You Stupid, Europe Edition (6/19/23) Europe is Falling, and France Is Leading the […]

July 9, 2025 | Inflationary Pressures Began After 2015 – Tariffs are a Distraction

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation. The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be […]

July 8, 2025 | When Governments Forget Who They Serve

Civilizations rarely collapse in a single moment -they erode gradually, often in full view. One of the most telling signs? People leaving. Not for better weather, but for better opportunity, greater freedom, and fiscal sanity. Time and again, excessive taxation, bloated bureaucracy, and anti-productivity policies have pushed citizens to vote with their feet. When governments […]

July 8, 2025 | People Flee Taxation

  I have written about how Rome fell, and just by mapping the population of Rome, you can see the fate of many current nations and states operating under poor fiscal policies – people sell and just leave. It is different this time because, under socialism, the government has become abusive. When it came to […]