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September 19, 2020 | Trading Desk Notes September 19, 2020

Massive stimulus from governments and Central Banks created a powerful “risk on” market psychology that drove equities and commodities higher and the USD lower over the past few months. We think this “risk on” market psychology in the process of reversing and we’ve been trading accordingly. Mega cap tech had a spectacular run in this “risk […]

September 18, 2020 | America Can Expect More COVID-19 Stimulus Money

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – First, we check in on the economy… Here’s CNBC: Yelp on Wednesday released its latest Economic Impact Report, revealing business closures across the U.S. are increasing as a result of the coronavirus pandemic’s economic toll. As of Aug. 31, 163,735 businesses have indicated on Yelp that they have closed. That’s down […]

September 18, 2020 | Zombies Must Go Now

The number of zombie companies is increasing exponentially. As Japan learned in the 1990s, a predominance of companies that cannot pay their debts is bad for the economy. Central bankers kept interest rates unusually low, helping firms stay alive that would have failed even before this recession. Zombies are a negative force for future growth […]

September 18, 2020 | Oil Demand Disappoints Bulls

Oil offers further proof that, at the zero-rate bound, monetary policy is pushing on a string, unable to increase consumption. In reports released last week, both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut their global demand outlook by 9.5 million barrels a day from 2019 levels, driven […]

September 18, 2020 | Giving It Up

Hmmm. There’s something happening here. What it is, ain’t exactly clear. Covid has done a number on politicians’ heads. The first global pandemic in a century spawned states of emergency across the country, shuttered legislatures, hobbled the federal Parliament, caused a suspension of many civil liberties, hardened borders, afforded new powers to premiers and mayors […]

September 17, 2020 | The Fed Sounds the Starting Gun for Gold

Did you see the announcement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) yesterday? Basically, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his cohorts stabbed daggers through the idea of raising rates anytime soon. This has all sorts of implications. But one thing it does is sound the starting gun for is gold’s next run higher. That’s […]

September 17, 2020 | Believe It Or Not, 2021 Is Looking Worse Than 2020

This year is, by any measure, brutal. First came a pandemic so baffling that virtually no one other than Sweden made it through without a near-depression. (Reminiscent of the previous decade’s financial crisis, when only Iceland got it right.) Then came civil unrest on a scale not seen since the 1960s, about which more than enough has […]

September 17, 2020 | Dollar and Treasuries Call Federal Reserve Bluff

Yesterday the US Fed offered its next iteration of low policy rates for longer, and longer, and longer with a promise that it would not hike for (at least) another three years in its effort to manufacture price inflation above 2%. The truth is, as we’ve already seen in places like Japan and Europe, keeping […]

September 17, 2020 | Unloved

Among its victims, Covid has big-city condos on life support. This has cleaved the real estate market in two. Houses with dirt, in the suburbs or even the sticks, are objects of desire, FOMO and bulbous prices. Concrete boxes in the heart of urbanity are emptying, devaluing and shedding equity. Rentals are piling up. Leases […]

September 17, 2020 | Corruption is Neither Left nor Right

QUESTION: The supporters of the left side and of the state/public sector always mention that the private sector is the one that suffers as in general (ex. 2008/2009 AIG case) the public always comes at the end as a fire brigade to save the world. How would we answer technically to all these people? Thank […]

September 16, 2020 | Canada More Lockdowns?

There are rumors now running around that more lockdowns are coming in Canada. I cannot verify that this is correct, but this twitter that is going viral does put it correctly, this is now becoming the people v the establishment which seems to be controlled by the Oligarchs. We will see if Canada goes in […]

September 16, 2020 | Dollar Flexes Its Pinky, Stocks Fall

  As observed here earlier, nearly everything has begun moving in lockstep opposite the dollar. Today, the effect of a modest bullish upturn in the dollar was both precipitous and precise. A strong dollar is the worst nightmare not only of the thimble-riggers at the Federal Reserve, but of everyone who owes dollars. That includes […]

September 16, 2020 | Rosenberg: We Have Yet to See COVID’s Real Impact

Many lucid thoughts in this segment… David Rosenberg, chief economist at Rosenberg Research, speaks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about GDP forecasts and what we should expect from the Canadian economy, especially if there are more outbreaks of COVID-19. Here is a direct video link.

September 16, 2020 | Into the Smoke

Kicked off some major media web sites for being such a tool, he landed here. Over the next four or five years Smoking Man dropped thousands of comments on this blog. At least half of them were obscene, libelous, incendiary or unintelligible. Especially the drunken, overnight ones. SM became the most Deleted person in blog […]

September 15, 2020 | West Coast in Flames – Part of the Strategy to Impact the Elections & Great Reset?

  Michael Jarrod Bakkela, 41, was charged with two counts of arson and additional crimes for allegedly setting a fire earlier this week in southern Oregon, while the region was already beset with the Almeda Fire. It appears from our cyclical models that this fire was deliberately set to further this Great Reset. Like the COVID-19 […]

September 15, 2020 | Fed ‘Sink Hole’ No. 3

Why are the markets running around like actors in a “B”-rated horror flick? Because investors know something is lurking out there. Growing. Spreading. This thing is like The Blob … all consuming. I’m talking about the rot behind the walls of the credit markets. You see, before the coronavirus crisis struck, even the lousiest, highest-risk companies were […]

September 15, 2020 | Excruciating Pain for Bears Suggests a Top Is Nigh

  It was challenging to stay short on Tuesday that the broad averages must surely be at or near an important top. This is an instinctual observation rather than a technical one, but I’m inclined to trust gut feelings based on the evidence. The two charts above illustrate the point. Notice that DIA, an ETF […]

September 15, 2020 | Exodus

So here’s a big surprise. Not. US financial giant JP Morgan has discovered younger employees who WFH are less productive, inefficient and more untrustworthy. What a shock that people in their jammy bottoms, watching TikTok on their phones and playing footsie with the cat while they Zoom a client were not fully engaged? Who knew? […]

September 15, 2020 | It’s Go Time for Gold! Next Stop $2,250

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting up new momentum base near $1,925. Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt new Gold rally to $2,250. The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next 4+ weeks. The US Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may […]

September 14, 2020 | Downtown: Not Business as Usual

Six months into the pandemic, the 30-kilometre underground pedestrian network and labyrinth of restaurants, retailers, and offices in downtown Toronto remain empty as thousands of Bay Streeters work from home and hundreds of small businesses falter.  See Toronto PATH remains eerily empty six months into a pandemic The author offers a summary in this video report.  […]

September 14, 2020 | How a Surefire Horse Lost by a Neck

[I wrote the following for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner two decades ago. I offer it as lighter fare in lieu of the usual rant about how the stock market is mentally ill, investors are besotted with greed, and the global financial system galloping toward ruinous deflation. RA] Talk about a sure thing! Here was the kind of […]

September 14, 2020 | The Illusion

Covid crushed rates. It could be the big story of our times. On the weekend we talked about Marie, the 60ish income-less single who sold her only asset (a house) to finance her remaining decades. But since central bankers tanked the cost of money to fight the virus, saving’s a disaster. GICs are awful. High-interest […]

September 14, 2020 | Make or Break – Big Trends Ahead

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: Although our modeling systems have recently switched into Bullish Trending mode, we are still very cautious of a Bull Trap pattern. Bearish technical divergences between price and RSI with an election 50+ days away indicates market weakness and money rotating out of FAANG stocks. FAANGs are at make or break levels – it’s […]

September 14, 2020 | Food Shortages to Reduce the Population Brought to you by the COVID Triumvirate

This is a photo of the food line beside the Brooklyn Bridge approach in New York City that prevailed between 1930 and 1935. Never before in history have Americans had to cue in line for food since this orchestrated pandemic by Gates, Fauci, and Klaus Schwab of the World Economic Forum. Food prices are also […]

September 14, 2020 | Michael Pento: Overvalued Stocks Head Into The Bunker

  The overvaluation of stocks relative to the economy has placed them in such rarefied space that the market is subject to dramatic and sudden air pockets. Our Inflation Deflation and Economic Cycle model is built to identify both cyclical and secular bear markets and protect and profit from them. However, what it cannot do, […]

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