- the source for market opinions


May 27, 2020 | Global Debt Default

QUESTION: Dear Martin, I do not speculate on whether the current situation has been orchestrated intentionally or not. This to me sounds more like the case for 9/11 you often described. They knew in advance that a “pandemic” could come any time, and they took advantage of the very first virus spreading around as the perfect […]

May 27, 2020 | How to Navigate Uncharted Waters? A Compass Made of Gold…

All the “off the charts” economic and financial data we’ve seen this year makes it blindingly obvious to any honest observer that investors are in uncharted waters. Employment, manufacturing, retail sales… in stat after stat, the shutdown of the global economy has broken the trends economists include in their models. Just look at how exceptional […]

May 27, 2020 | Boeing is the Tip of the Layoff Iceberg

Boeing announced more layoffs after recording zero orders but 108 cancellations. Boeing announced over 12,000 Layoffs in the wake of plane cancellations and dearth of new orders. Boeing Co (BA.N) said Wednesday it was eliminating more than 12,000 U.S. jobs, including involuntary layoffs of 6,770 U.S. workers as the largest American planemaker restructures in the face of […]

May 27, 2020 | Canadian Credit Cycle Starting to Bite

As Canadian banks begin reporting their second-quarter earnings this week (for Feb thru April), Bank of Nova Scotia was first on deck with a 39% drop in profits and a 111% increase in loan loss provisions. Since business lockdowns and layoffs only surged in the latter half of March, half of this quarter was still pre-COVID-19. […]

May 27, 2020 | The Covid reset

Source: The Canadian Press The virus is an agent of change. The transformation of society’s happening a lot faster since the pandemic came to town. Who knew a bug could do this? Look at the headlines… The country’s biggest newspaper – in fact a company with real estate, presses, 4,000 employees, half-a-dozen dailies and 70 […]

May 26, 2020 | Is Gates Stupid or Very Clever with Vaccines

QUESTION: Dear Mr Armstrong I was in a discussion with a friend about current affairs – me, against Bill Gates and the likes and him, taking a more neutral stance. He asked if I watched some or anything he actually said. I said yes, well at least what you have posted I have watched in […]

May 26, 2020 | All Heaven Breaks Loose to Start the Week

All heaven broke loose ahead of Tuesday’s opening, starting with a gusher of headlines suggesting the worst is behind us. The Wall Street Journal led with a story about how trucking activity has picked up, and even the hotels and cruise lines are stirring. The pick-up in tempo is slight so far, as the Journal was forced to concede, […]

May 26, 2020 | Author of Bailout Nation Gets Bailout

Barry Ritholtz, Author of Bailout Nation, just got a bailout. Please note the $1.3 billion Ritholtz Wealth Firm Takes Out a PPP Loan. Count Ritholtz Wealth Management among the $1bn-plus RIAs which have taken out government-backed coronavirus relief loans. Reformed Broker Under Pressure The RIA’s chief executive, Josh Brown had this to say in a Reformed Broker blog […]

May 26, 2020 | Reopening is Not Business as Usual

As many North American businesses move to reopen with social distancing this month, China offers a glimpse of why business-as-usual is unlikely to follow. After a strict lockdown bent the spread of COVID-19 in April,  China has reopened schools and businesses and was operating at 87% of typical output on May 12, according to the […]

May 26, 2020 | Bad Dog

There was panic in the PR department over at Re/Max and Royal LePage last week. They might even had a picture of bad dog Evan Siddall on the wall, with a few bullet holes in it. (Okay, dart punctures, maybe.) Used to be that the fed agency, CMHC, was just a big squishy, real estate-friendly […]

May 26, 2020 | Is A Blow-Off Top Setting Up

Our research team has become increasingly concerned that the US Fed support for the markets has pushed price levels well above true valuation levels and that a risk of a downside price move is still rather high.  Recently, we published a research article highlighting our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system results showing the […]

May 25, 2020 | US Crowds Defy Lockdowns

Americans are defying the lockdown orders throughout the country from California to the Atlantic Seaboard. People have discarded their masks which the CDC originally stated will not prevent getting a virus of any kind. Politicians are going to find that at least 33% of the population is thumbing their noses at government and see this […]

May 25, 2020 | Holiday Weekend Was More Spectating Than Spending

  A recent newspaper article about superspreaders — stadium events, concerts and outdoor festivals that effectively bathe crowds in Covid-19 — noted that a boisterous fan can spew viral particles that remain airborne for as long as 12 minutes.  There’s additional evidence that when we steep in this microscopic spume for a couple of hours, […]

May 25, 2020 | Fitch: Customers Leaving Equity Funds Means Lower Revenue for Financial Sector

  With the Canadian TSX today virtually unchanged from its April 2008 peak, even the most steadfast buy and hold investors have reaped zero capital gains over more than 12 years of risk and just 1.7% annually since the prior cycle peak in July 2000.  Those who bought GICs and government bonds over these same […]

May 25, 2020 | The Benefit

First, the good news. Every little shred helps. The blue bank is telling its customers not to worry about extra interest that will accrue as they defer their mortgage payments. “BMO will be refunding any additional interest accumulated on your deferred mortgage payments for the entire deferral period.” It says. “We will credit this refund […]

May 24, 2020 | Our ‘Virtual’ Dollar Transcends Materialism (Laws of Physics)! Why?

Our Smart Phones are a type of ‘virtual reality’ which uses ‘artificial intelligence for our experience Most of science has adopted this philosophy called Materialism. This philosophy is mostly based upon the law of physics which is also the core philosophy for chemistry and biology. The particles of materialism are what science has studied and […]

May 24, 2020 | Tapes Leaked showing Biden did What They Tried to Impeach Trump On

Leaked phone calls between Joe Biden and former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko explicitly detail the quid-pro-quo arrangement to fire former Ukrainian Prosecutor General Victor Shokin – who Poroshenko admits did nothing wrong – in exchange for $1 billion in US loan guarantees (which Biden bragged about in January 2018). The calls were leaked by Ukrainian […]

May 24, 2020 | Why Isn’t the Dollar Collapsing Given Trillions in Printing?

S Congress has authorized several trillion dollars in Covid-fighting stimulus programs. So what’s holding the dollar up?I Think Outside the USI remain amused by all the calls of hyperinflation and high inflation given the Fed has turned on the printing presses. However, currencies cannot be viewed in isolation. To those expecting a total US dollar […]

May 24, 2020 | What Would Cook Hand Luke & Virgil Hilts Do?

“Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!” – Patrick Henry “If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring […]

May 24, 2020 | Ray Dalio Suggests USA Is Entering A Period Of Decline And New World Order

We find it interesting how researchers attempt to compare history, sometimes ancient history, to the applicable functions of today’s world and to attempt to translate the decline of empires in the past to what is happening in today’s world.  Ray Dalio appears to be suggesting the rise of the Chinese economy and economic capabilities is […]

May 24, 2020 | Rewinding the Tape

We finished the Virtual Strategic Investment Conference yesterday. I can honestly say it was simply the best conference I have ever attended or been privileged to host. The ability to bring together so many exciting speakers, something schedules would not have allowed if we were holding a physical conference, offered a constant stream of thought-provoking, […]

May 23, 2020 | Catastrophic Plunge in Jobs & Labor Force in Los Angeles, San Francisco/Silicon Valley Smacks into Housing Bubbles

A little anecdotal thingy before we get into the horrifying data: I was on a call with a guy from Google – they want my WOLF STREET media mogul empire to spend money advertising on Google. He was working from home, and since he no longer has to go to Google’s office in Redwood City, […]

May 23, 2020 | Coronavirus Bankruptcy Pandemic Continues

The total economic destruction we have said is about $30 trillion in businesses. If we add real estate which cannot be sold, that is most likely $35-$45 trillion. Then add on top of that the coming wave of sovereign bond defaults which will include emerging markets that have witnessed their exports collapse. Global GDP is […]

May 23, 2020 | The Economy Will Not Soon Return to Normal: Here’s Why

Numerous chain reaction ripple impacts will delay the economic recovery. Let’s start with a look at car rental companies. No Magic AnswersBankruptcies happen when there is too much debt leverage accompanied by some sort of economic shock. For example, Hertz filed for bankruptcy on Friday. Now, the entire rental industry is Scrambling for Answers, but there […]

May 23, 2020 | Trading Desk Notes May 23, 2020

I’ve been trading small size with tight stops. Choppy price action keeps my conviction level low. My bias is that demand destruction has been incredible…with a good chance that it gets worse before it gets better…so I think this is bear market rally…but I have to respect the fact that risk assets won’t break down. This […]

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