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January 28, 2020 | IF EUR/USD is Going to Bounce, This Would Be A Good Place…

A nice symmetrical A-B-C pattern into the low.

January 28, 2020 | UK Defies Trump on Huawei 5G Technology Ban, EU Will Follow

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave the go ahead today for the UK to use some Huawei 5G technology. Despite intense pressure form the Trump administration, the WSJ reports U.K. Allows Huawei to Build Parts of 5G Network. The U.K. government has given the green light for Huawei Technologies Co. to build part of its next-generation […]

January 28, 2020 | War Profits Are A Comin’!

I think I threw you for a loop last week when I said this: This new convergence of War Cycles will also coincide with the last stock market boom of our lifetimes — a boom that too many ordinary investors will miss out on due to bad advice and even blind panic. When wars break out, investors’ […]

January 28, 2020 | Bull Fever Didn’t Cool for Long

A killer virus on the prowl around the planet evidently was not on investors’ fevered brains Tuesday as they proved yet again that betting heavily against a third straight down-day is nearly always a big winner. The S&Ps were up 32 points, with a corresponding gain in the Dow Industrials that has put 30,000 in […]

January 28, 2020 | Discovering Cycles

QUESTION: Speaking of cycles and frequency I guess the question is how to find the exact beginning of a cycle? You say 8.6 is the base frequency. Why not 8.5875? In other words, how do you come up with the exact day a cycle begins? A ANSWER: You have to discover them. The 8.6 I […]

January 28, 2020 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, January Update

Reports have been circulating for a while about the deterioration in the Manhattan housing market, including a report in December that studied condo towers with 30 or more units, built after 2015, in total 7,727 condos, nearly half of which the developers have been unable to sell. Much of the new inventory is at the […]

January 28, 2020 | Guggenheim Co-founder: Fed has Created a ‘Ponzi’ Market

Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners co-founder and Guggenheim Global chief investment officer, discusses his concerns about rallying asset prices.  Here is a direct video link. It is rare to hear financial establishment heads admit the truth about the present market cycle.  As we consider Scott Minerd’s comments, it is important to appreciate what Ponzi schemes are and […]

January 28, 2020 | Rhodium Roulette

Rhodium prices have spiked. It’s now the top-performing metal of the decade, and speculators are excited. Since I—quite frankly—missed the boat on palladium in 2019, this makes it worth considering. But before we get into this, I have to say up front that I’m not a rhodium expert. I could read a bunch of articles […]

January 28, 2020 | The Clueless

Remember all that political stuff we waded through last week as I announced my shocking withdrawal from the race to become the new Con leader? At least it cleared the way for Peter MacKay on the weekend. Now, barring the unexpected, he’ll be facing T2 in the next general election. It won’t be pretty. But […]

January 27, 2020 | Seeing Cycles Everywhere Around Us

For years, it has been a sort of family joke that I view the world around me and see the cycles in everything. I had walked into a casino and noticed there were cycles to the numbers coming out on a roulette wheel, but more fascinating was that the cycles were unique to each dealer. […]

January 27, 2020 | Coronavirus, VIX and SMA

The Coronaviris may have been the catalyst, but our VIX model warned of imminent market vulnerability. Friday’s close below the 10-day sma was the trigger following the key date of January 8th in our presidential/decennial cycle analysis.  

January 27, 2020 | Yield Curve Inversions Again Stretch Out 7 Years

Huge portions of the the yield curve are inverted. Most of the inversions are by tiny amounts, but it’s another warning. With growing concern over the Coronavirus, yields dropped again today and portions of the yield curve are inverted out to seven years.For example, the yield on the 7-year not is lower than the yield […]

January 27, 2020 | ‘Fourth Turning’ of Status Quo Systems and Beliefs Likely to Last to 2030

A slowing global economy with record debt, levered speculators and irrationally valued corporate securities make the world extra vulnerable to negative shocks that inevitably come in the form of trade wars, catastrophic weather events, disasters, war, terrorism and pandemics.  Today, we have all of the above in the mix. Importantly, this is all happening within […]

January 27, 2020 | The Platinum Breakout & Bull Market of 2020

Platinum has setup into a longer-term FLAG formation and has recently broken the APEX of this FLAG.  The long term potential for Platinum, in conjunction with the advance in Rhodium, Palladium, Gold, and Silver, is a new Bullish Price Trend. Our researchers believe Platinum must move above $1200 for this new Bullish trend to anchor […]

January 27, 2020 | This Black Swan Could Make Us Rich or Kill Us—I Actually Hope It’s Neither…

  I’m posting this from an undisclosed location, as I’m out kicking rocks on behalf of subscribers to The Independent Speculator. Getting here meant sitting for hours in a sealed aluminum cylinder with wings, breathing the same air as hundreds of fellow passengers. It also meant touching doorknobs, handles, seat buttons, and countless other objects handled […]

January 27, 2020 | The Panic

She lived a couple of doors away in our townhouse complex in mid-town Toronto. One day yellow CAUTION tape went up around her front entrance facing the common courtyard. In the underground parking garage the guy living beside us had some information. “SARS,” he said. She was dead a week later. That was 2003, and […]

January 27, 2020 | Reaction to Apple’s Earnings Today Holds Key

Buyers hung tough on Monday because DaBoyz were able to exhaust sellers ahead of the opening bell. They won’t be able to rig the game that way on Tuesday, though, since the ‘coronavirus effect’  — on stocks, not humans — is already well in play. Rumors continue to swirl concerning the death toll in China, […]

January 26, 2020 | Breakout in Dollar and T-Bonds Could Be Signaling a Major Tone Change

  Friday’s nasty stock-market reversal was the most interesting we’ve seen in a long while. The ostensible cause of the selloff was mounting anxiety over the spread of the deadly coronavirus from China to the U.S. and elsewhere. Three cases have been reported so far in the U.S. and 2,000 worldwide, and although no one […]

January 26, 2020 | US Futures Poised to Gap Down on Coronavirus Scare: What Then?

US futures are poised to gap down at the Monday opening. Things can easily change overnight but this is likely to stick. What is a Gap? A gap up occurs when the market or an individual issue opens higher than the high on the previous day. A gap down occurs when the market or an […]

January 26, 2020 | Nose Blind to Inflation

The human brain excels at taking shortcuts. Processing all the information our senses collect takes a lot of energy, so repetitive data gets lower priority. Things we see often fade into the background so we can notice new stuff. This is where we get phenomena like “nose blindness.” We stop perceiving familiar smells like our […]

January 26, 2020 | The Black Swan Event Begins

As the Asian markets opened on late Sunday, traders expected a reactionary price move related to the threat of the Wuhan virus and the continued news of its spread.  The US Dow Jones futures markets opened close to -225 points lower on Sunday afternoon and were nearly -300 points lower within the first 25 minutes […]

January 25, 2020 | The Hidden Order behind the Mask of Chaos

COMMENT: Marty, The last few days I’ve been remotely attending the 2019 WEC Orlando. Lo and behold, now? three months hence and six days into the new wave?I am simply astounded at hearing how you describe your own amazement with the global confluence of events occurring absolutely everywhere while also curious whether there is merely […]

January 25, 2020 | Did Russia Just Undergo Regime Change?

Good morning, students. It’s time for Media Literacy 101. Are you sitting comfortably? Then let’s begin. Have you ever heard of Betteridge’s Law of Headlines? It is a journalistic maxim formulated by Ian Betteridge which holds that “any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered by the word ‘no.’” So let’s apply that rule […]

January 25, 2020 | Trading Desk Notes January 25, 2020

The major North American stock indices hit ATHs this week…initially shrugging off virus concerns…but when the virus headlines became increasingly scary ahead of the weekend stocks and commodities fell while bonds, bullion, the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen rallied.   Given the tremendous run in stock indices over the past few months this week’s correction […]

January 24, 2020 | Australia – The Most Aggressive Tax Authority in the World?

Australia has been perhaps the most aggressive tax authority in the world. They are certainly competing to be #1. Besides stalking children to see where they go to school, and then demanded the school reveal how the parents pay the tuition, now they are going after insurance companies demanding to know what assets people are […]

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