- the source for market opinions


March 31, 2022 | Weaponizing Russian Energy

In an attempt to boost the ruble and avoid sanctions, Russia will stop accepting payments in dollars and euros from “unfriendly countries.” India is on board and willing to change to a SWIFT alternative to easily convert rupees to rubles. The G7 has declared that they will not pay for gas in rubles. “[A]ll G-7 […]

March 31, 2022 | Joe Carson: Fed Policy On A Preset Course to Fail

From The Carson Report: Policymakers are trying to achieve a benign economic outcome, a soft landing similar to 1995. But unfortunately, history shows that soft landings are rare. Since 1960, there have been three soft landings but nine recessions. Soft landings happen when the Fed acts early and often, and recessions occur when the Fed […]

March 31, 2022 | Bond Massacre, Inflation Prick Biggest Bond Bubble in History

We’ve seen the headlines in recent days. “Worst Bond-Market Drawdown on Record.” Drawdown means drop in prices. “Global Bond Market loses $2.6 Trillion,” was another one. This was based on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, which tracks total returns of government and corporate bonds. And this index of global bonds has plunged 11% from […]

March 31, 2022 | Could BC Be Big Winner From Russia-Ukraine War?

Can crypto’s and real assets like gold work together?

March 31, 2022 | Russia Ukraine, US Dollar, Cryptos

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March 31, 2022 | The Myth Canada Running Out of Real Estate

No Such Thing as a Guaranteed Return

March 31, 2022 | Mortgage Math Matters

The Bank of Canada is now expected to hike the base interest rate by .50% at its next several meetings toward 2.5% by year-end. The bond market has sold off sharply to price in these aspirations, so fixed mortgage rates (priced off bond yields) are already higher. The mortgage math matters: Before the pandemic, the […]

March 30, 2022 | Can Tracking Global Money Flow Provide Clues To Stay In The Black?

According to The Bank of International Settlements, the global foreign currency exchange (FX) daily transactional turnover averages $6.6 trillion. At Technical Traders, we track a variety of markets, asset classes, and global money flow looking for clues that will help us in our quest for ETF returns. Interestingly when foreign exchange is charted as a […]

March 30, 2022 | Putin vs. NWO, Shots, Death

Russia/Ukraine Insight

March 30, 2022 | When “Guaranteed Returns” are Everything But

The free-for-all of asset bubbles builds a world of hurt for would-be “investors” who neglect math and due diligence work.  Old lessons are ripe for relearning here.  See:  Real estate company collapses, 500 homes affected, $10m from investors across Canada missing.  “Fund-A-Flip…hassle-free landlord programs”…so many red flags… A judge has assigned a special investigator to look into […]

March 30, 2022 | Deja Vu All Over Again?

Home prices have rocketed to record highs – and signs point to more gains. Property owners have been dancing to a bull market for 10 years now – and when the music finally stops, many are going to find themselves without a chair. Housing prices could plummet during the next downturn – so this is […]

March 29, 2022 | An Easier Solution for Rupee-Ruble Payments

India imported $3.3 billion in goods to Russia in 2021, and the finance ministry has no plans to slow that source of revenue. India has not placed sanctions on Russia. The Federation of Indian Export Organizations (FIEO) announced that India will now switch to a SWIFT alternative that permits rupee-ruble payments between the two nations. This renders […]

March 29, 2022 | Betting on More of the Same?

The CRB commodity price index (39% fossil fuels and 41% agriculture) has leapt 25% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and is up 38% year-to-date. If that pace of increase were to continue over the balance of 2022, it would amount to an unprecedented 142% year-over-year annualized appreciation; by far, the most of the […]

March 29, 2022 | Jordan Roy-Byrne: Gold Stocks To Outperform Gold Massively

From Daily Gold: Gold mining stocks as a whole have underperformed Gold since 2007. The GDX to Gold ratio from its 2007 peak to its 2015 bottom declined 80%. The Gold price peak in 2008 was about where it bottomed at the end of 2015. That’s over seven years of a flat market coupled with […]

March 29, 2022 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, March Update: Just Before the Great Spike in Mortgage Rates

So now we have a new snapshot of the incredibly spiking home prices, topping out at over 30% year-over-year in Phoenix and Tampa, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index today. But these prices predate the Great American Mortgage Rate Spike. What time span are we talking about? The “January” home price data […]

March 29, 2022 | Political Calculation: Economic Calculation: Science Calculation

Political Calculation has been overwhelming sound Economic as well as Science Calculation and dictatorial distortions are leading to widespread hardship. This contrasts with the Platonic notion that government being run by the genius of a philosopher-king can know what you need tomorrow and can provide it.

March 28, 2022 | Another Stunning OCC Report

The new Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Quarterly Derivatives Report was just released for positions held as of Dec 31, 2021. The report covers Over-The-Counter derivatives positions, including precious metals derivatives held by US banks, meaning that the listed futures and options contracts on the COMEX are not included in this report. Unlike […]

March 28, 2022 | Nothing Destroys Inflation Like a Recession (and Bear Market)

Darius offers an advisory service for traders, so short-term suggestions should be taken within this context.  However, from a medium and longer-term asset management perspective, there are many valuable observations and insights in this segment on where we are in the current market cycle and what this suggests for relative return probabilities over the next […]

March 28, 2022 | Not Until Something Breaks

Happy Monday Morning! It looks like inflation might not be transitory after all, and the bond market is finally figuring that out. Bonds have been selling off hard lately, sending yields much higher, and tightening financial conditions in the process. This is particularly important for the Canadian housing market. If there was ever a catalyst […]

March 28, 2022 | Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX […]

March 28, 2022 | Gradually, Then Suddenly

“How did you go bankrupt?” Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises “I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while […]

March 27, 2022 | The Doomsday Jet

The Neocons have accomplished their objective. They dethroned Trump and installed the senile president who will go down in history as the President that began World War III. His name will be remembered in infamy because it is always the president to history remembers – not the dark figures behind the curtain prodding him on […]

March 27, 2022 | MN Gordon: Welcome To The Death Zone

From Economic Prism:  Do you own a house?  Do you rent? How you answer these questions likely influences your perception of inflation and the economy. But what if the forces driving your perception are about to reverse…thus, standing your perception on its head? We believe big, earth-shattering changes are under foot in the credit market.  […]

March 27, 2022 | Another Setback for Permabears

  Last week’s commentary was skeptical that the short squeeze begun two weeks ago in the broad averages would prove to be just a bear rally.  Based on the latest technical evidence, it now seems likely that stocks are headed to new all-time highs. This is despite the fact that the world is going to […]

March 26, 2022 | This Week in Money

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