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April 30, 2024 | The President Overtaking the Federal Reserve – BAD IDEA

  I do not agree with Donald Trump’s view of the Federal Reserve. I speak on behalf of sound economic policies that benefit the people. I do not blindly support a political candidate for the sake of being on the right side. Now, I criticized Trump during his presidency for constantly pressuring the central bank […]

April 30, 2024 | Losses

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Quarterly OTC Derivatives report covers the over-the-ccounter derivatives positions of the U.S. banks. For many years, the only two banks that mattered in the precious metals category were JPMorgan and Citibank. About three years ago, Bank of America burst onto the scene, as a giant new participant […]

April 30, 2024 | The Great Unwind in Motion

Government transfers to households and businesses exploded to record highs during the pandemic, while central banks helped push interest rates to all-time lows. This enabled excess spending, inflated the price of goods, services, labour, and assets in most countries at once, and ballooned debt through all levels of the global economy. Then, central banks hiked […]

April 30, 2024 | Recession Watch: Why Isn’t “Inevitable” Becoming “Imminent”?

So that recession I keep whining about still hasn’t arrived. What’s going on out there to keep “inevitable” from becoming “imminent”? It might be as simple as a government borrowing insane amounts of money and giving it to arms makers, banks, and AI companies. This “fiscal dominance” strategy invokes some serious unintended consequences, including stubborn […]

April 29, 2024 | Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook

Hoisington’s First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is available here. Always a rich and enlightening economic lesson. For those who think the impacts of the 2022-23 monetary tightening cycle are over, this concise review is worth a look. U.S. dollar world liquidity (MWDL) dropped by a record 9% year over year in February as the U.S. Fed’s […]

April 29, 2024 | Happy Monday Morning!

Happy Monday morning! Last week we wrote about the big lie, the federal government claims they are going to build 3.9 million homes over the next seven years. Remember that’s 1528 homes per day, or 64 homes per hour for 7 straight years, no weekends off. So unless the homes look like this, I have some […]

April 29, 2024 | California’s Exit Tax

  People have been leaving California in droves due to Governor Gavin Newsom’s socialistic Utopia that demands everyone be taxed on every penny they earn. I’ve long warned that California was unfriendly for businesses and investors. Those who stayed behind will now need to pay to leave under Assembly Bill 2088. California plans to implement […]

April 29, 2024 | Sagging Used-Car Prices, Spiking Maintenance & Repair Costs, and a Post-Bankruptcy Propaganda Coup Turn Toxic for Hertz

Rental car operator Hertz Global Holdings has had a nasty time in the stock market since it emerged from bankruptcy (filed Chapter 11 in May 2020, emerged on June 30, 2021). The new stock closed on the first day of trading at $26.99, then wobbled lower until the meme-stock crowd briefly fancied it again, and […]

April 28, 2024 | The Day We Stopped Trusting Media

One of the first posts in this newsletter’s Shrinking Trust Horizon series was about how “deep fake” technology will make fake images, videos, and audio recordings almost indistinguishable from the real thing. This will kill millions of modeling and acting jobs, while weaponizing audio and video in all kinds of disturbing ways. That day has apparently arrived: […]

April 28, 2024 | When Absolute Returns Are Not Absolute

This week is part two of our conversation about alternative investments. As I pointed out last week, this space has evolved into a distinct asset class of its own. I believe investors need to understand the good, the bad, and the ugly aspects of investing in alternatives. The Strategic Investment Conference is going very well. […]

April 28, 2024 | Science for Those Who Hate Science

Decades ago, there was an article titled “Jazz for People Who Hate Jazz”. The idea was to introduce those who did not know to those who did know. More recently and unfortunately, government-sponsored dogma has promoted an anti-science movement – ironically – in the name of “science”. Disgustingly, mainly for power and money. . Ironically, […]

April 28, 2024 | Red-Hot Nvidia Recalls RCA Mania of 1929

The chart above shows RCA’s spectacular climb to the Mother of All Tops in 1929. The larger chart that frames it shows what Nvidia shares would have to do to replicate the peaks and troughs that set up RCA’s plunge into hell. Notice that the stock’s final top (#4) was just marginally higher than one […]

April 28, 2024 | Beware of 2025

  QUESTION: Hi Martin, What are you thoughts on holding cash into 2028? You said cash was king, but there would come a time to abandon cash. It seems this CBDC thing is what you are talking about. Do you have any time yet? See you in London Kind regards, HF ANSWER: Europeans are much more familiar […]

April 27, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes For April 27, 2024

Is buying the Yen in anticipation of another “Plaza Accord” the Trade of the Year or just another attempt to catch a falling piano? The BoJ did nothing at their scheduled meeting this week, and the Yen collapsed to a new 34-year low against the USD and hit an All-Time low against the Euro (which has only been around for 26 years.) […]

April 27, 2024 | This Week in Money

April 27, 2024 | Fed’s Wait-and-See on Rate Cuts Further Supported by Extra-Hot “Core Services” PCE Inflation & Hot “Core” PCE Inflation

The core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy and is the inflation index the Fed is focused on, jumped by 3.9% annualized in March from February, nearly double the Fed’s target of 2%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis today (blue in the chart). The three-month annualized core […]

April 27, 2024 | Why Trump Can Only be Put on Trial by Congress – Not the Department of Justice

  QUESTION: I would love to hear your legal comments on Trump’s immunity claim. EP ANSWER: I would approach this from a geopolitical and practical manner. Trump MUST be completely immune from bringing any criminal or civil charges against him by the government when he is President – yes, even if he killed someone and […]

April 27, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 27th 2024

The Bottom Line Focus this week in on the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 5.25%-5.50%. The question is “How long will the Fed maintain this rate?” Release of a slightly “hotter than consensus” March core […]

April 26, 2024 | How Far Can The Yen Fall Before Japan Goes Bankrupt? We may be about to find out

Japan’s ongoing march to national bankruptcy has been a recurring theme here. See: Japan Is In That Box Japan Takes Another Step Towards the Cliff How a Country Goes Bankrupt, In 10 Steps Now the death spiral has entered a new phase, with the yen/dollar exchange rate heading straight down: To restate the “Japan collapse” […]

April 26, 2024 | Tesla Reports Poor Results and The Share Price Spikes Higher

Tesla, Inc. had a closely watched first quarter report, outlining poor results this week. But the markets’ initial reaction was positive, even if the financial results were underwhelming. Why would the market push the stock 10 percent higher after disappointing results? Tesla reported a 9 percent decline in revenue after a previously reported decline in […]

April 26, 2024 | Private Equity More Boondoggle Than Brilliance

I’ve frequently spoken and written about leverage-on-leverage contagion risks from the private equity and credit markets with feedback loops to real estate. Some of the articles are here. As interest rates slumped in the decade leading up to 2022, this space increasingly attracted yield-starved capital from institutions and individuals alike. Our capital management firm was inundated […]

April 26, 2024 | US GDP & Recession into 2028

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Socrates correctly picked March as the Directional Change, and it looks like there will be a sharp decline into June. Are you expecting a serious recession with the May 7th turning point on your Economic Confidence Model? SH PS It seems like Jamie Diamond uses Socrates since he has just said what you […]

April 26, 2024 | What’s Behind: “Sell in May and Go Away”

There is considerable history behind the gem of stock market lore to “Sell in May”. The real explanation is readily provided by the record of Great Bubbles as they occurred in the London financial markets. There were five to the 1929 example. Four climaxed in May. And one, the infamous 1720 South Sea Bubble climaxed […]

April 26, 2024 | The Nice Part about Getting Old

    The nice part about getting old (I’ll be 77 in one week) is that you’ve experienced more than most people – and that includes real estate cycles. U.S. housing prices may be at record highs today – but as I continue to illustrate in my Timing Letters, a massive mean reversion is likely […]

April 25, 2024 | Plastic Recycling is a Myth: Here’s How We Fix That

Understanding the truth about plastic is key to finding solutions. Globally, only 9% of plastic is ever recycled, and even that tiny amount requires some virgin plastic to maintain quality. But scientists have discovered a new way to address this issue: “plastivores”, organisms that have evolved to eat plastic using enzymes in their bodies. Can […]

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