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March 27, 2024 | US Crude Inventories Rise For Commercial Stocks and at Cushing. WTI Likely To Fall Below US$80/B Shortly
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Rising inflation pressure globally and decent economic growth are making it harder for the Fed to reduce interest rates. Investors have an expectation that the first of three 25 BP cuts will occur in June. With the rise in crude prices to US$82/b (nearly US$12/b over the last two […]
March 20, 2024 | Ukraine Bombing of Russian Refineries Adds US$2/B To War Premium Over The Last Week
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Today’s FOMC meeting and press conference by Chairman Powell thereafter, reiterated their plan to have three rate cuts of 25 BP each later this year. When, was left ambiguous. While there has been significant progress on the inflation front over the last year, recent CPI and PPI data are […]
March 14, 2024 | Ukraine Drone Attacks on Key Russian Refineries Boosts Crude Prices
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE The hope that US inflation has been tamed was rebuked with the CPI data released yesterday. US CPI month over month rose 0.4% or 4.8% annualized, more than double the Fed’s target rate and the second month of hot data. Wage growth came in at up 4.3% from the […]
March 7, 2024 | OPEC Contemplating Extending Its Quota Cuts To Year End Bouys Crude Prices
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE The Bank of Canada announced that they would keep their overnight rate at 5% as underlying inflation still persists. They also plan on keeping their quantitative tightening (QT) measures. The C$ improved 31 ticks to 73.88 on this announcement. Chairman Powell is before Congress today and tomorrow and markets […]
February 28, 2024 | OPEC Discussing Extending Its Production Cuts For One More Quarter Lifts Crude Prices Modestly
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Mixed economic data in the US continues with some data showing a slowing economy but others indicating inflation reversings to the upside. This stagflation pivot is not what the bond and stock market want to see. Forecasters are now indicating that the first cut would occur in June only […]
February 21, 2024 | Weak US Demand and Rising Commercial Stocks Likely To Cause Near Term Term Correction in WTI Price
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE Mixed economic data in the US, with some indicators like manufacturing weakening are being offset by rising inflation after many months of declines. The Fed meeting notes out this week (from the last FOMC meeting) noted that they are concerned about lowering rates too quickly due to persistent price […]
February 15, 2024 | Crude Oil War Premium Expands US$3.50/B Over The Last Week as Houthis Continue Attacks in Red Sea
GLOBAL ECONOMIC, POLITICAL & MILITARY UPDATE The surprisingly hot US CPI data yesterday drove the Dow down over 520 points to 38,273 and at its worst was down over 700 points, before a late afternoon recovery. The US Treasury 10-Year yield rose to 4.31%, up 44 BP in just over a week, which spooked investors […]