August 3, 2026 | SpaceX’s Lockup Is Here — And Early Investors Got In at $4

SpaceX: Not the Launch Musk Fans Were Hoping For

When I sat down with This Week in Money on July 24 (link) the conversation turned to one of the most talked-about IPOs in market history — and I had to be the bearer of some uncomfortable news. SpaceX hadn’t exactly delivered the launch its fans were hoping for. On Friday’s MoneyTalks with Mike Campbell (link), time constraints meant we didn’t get the chance to follow up on SpaceX — so here’s that update, and where things stand.

From $226 to $108 in Six Weeks

SpaceX (SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 back in June. On June 16, it shot as high as $226. Since then, it’s dropped roughly 52%, and as of this writing sits around $108.

That’s a brutal round trip for anyone who bought into the hype at the top — and it sets up the next chapter in this story; one we flagged well before it happened.

The Lockup Expiry is Here

Last month, we told readers to watch August 6 — the first lockup expiry date, which lets early institutional investors start cashing out. That date has now arrived, and it’s worth understanding exactly what’s unlocking and why it matters. The trigger for the unlock is SpaceX’s first-ever earnings report as a public company, due out Tuesday, August 4 — the lockup lifts two trading days later.

Here’s the mechanic: before SpaceX ever traded on a public exchange, massive institutional players — think Google, Fidelity, and large venture capital funds — were allowed to buy private shares years ago, long before everyday investors ever got a shot. Those early backers are now sitting on enormous, deeply discounted positions, and the lockup is what’s kept them from selling until now.

This is just the first release. SpaceX structured its lockup in stages rather than one single cliff, meaning more tranches of shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale later this year — so this week’s unlock is the opening event in a longer story, not the end of it.

To put those entry prices in perspective: a $10 million investment at $4 a share would be worth roughly $270 million today at the current $108 price. The same $10 million invested at $6 a share would be worth about $180 million. Either way, that’s the kind of return that was only available to early institutional money — long before the stock ever traded on a public exchange.

Google’s $94 billion Reveal

Just last week, Google disclosed exactly how big its own stake really is: $94.1 billion in SpaceX shares, or roughly 6% of the company. That position traces back to a $1 billion investment Google made alongside Fidelity all the way back in 2015, when SpaceX was valued at a mere $12 billion.

Let that sink in: this isn’t a new bet Google just made. It’s an eleven-year-old position that’s grown into one of the largest paper gains any public company has ever booked on a single private investment.

That also means Google is now one of the biggest holders sitting directly on top of the exact supply overhang we warned about. When lockups lift, even modest profit-taking from a stake this size can put serious pressure on a stock — and $94 billion is not a modest stake.

Access Retail Investors Never Had

This dynamic simply comes down to the difference between private and public investing. Early institutional backers bought in at $4 to $6 a share years ago, taking on early-stage risk long before the company was proven. Public markets naturally come later in a company’s lifecycle, meaning retail investors enter after that initial growth phase has already played out.

The Takeaway for Retail Investors

None of this means SpaceX is a bad company. Starlink — SpaceX’s satellite internet division — remains a genuine profit engine, effectively subsidizing the company’s AI ambitions, and the long-term ambitions around Starship are real. But the setup right now is a textbook lockup dynamic: a stock that’s already down 52% from its high, facing a fresh wave of institutional sellers who got in at prices retail investors will never see again.

To be clear, we’re not predicting that these early investors will dump their entire positions the moment shares unlock — most will sell gradually, if at all, to manage price impact and tax timing. The point is simpler: when your cost basis is $4 to $6 a share and the stock is sitting at $108, the incentive to lock in at least some of that gain is real. It’s a dynamic worth watching, not a forecast.

If you’re holding SPCX or thinking about buying the dip, go in with clear eyes about what August 6 means for supply — and remember that any selling that does show up from these investors likely isn’t a reaction to today’s headlines. It’s early money weighing whether to lock in an eleven-year win.

Keep your head up!

Martin

Martin Straith August 3rd, 2026

Posted In: The Trend Letter

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