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January 24, 2020 | The Seduction of Betting Against the Sure Thing

  The buy-the-dips mentality has become so entrenched over the last few months that it’s hard to imagine what could possibly derail the bull market. Wall Street feigned mild concern for a few hours over the spread of a deadly virus in China, but absent news that Americans are keeling over dead from it in […]

January 21, 2020 | Is Copper Signaling the Return of Inflation?

I’ve been a hardcore deflationist for so long that it took a wake-up call from the always astute Jesse Felder to jolt me out of my complacency. His latest report is headlined Dr. Copper Could Soon Deliver a Diagnosis of Inflation, and it’s an eye-opener. The chart accompanying Felder’s think-piece suggests that copper futures have been developing thrust […]

January 19, 2020 | Impeachment Can’t Compete with a Bull Market

If the farce of impeachment has had an impact on the stock market, it appears to have steepened the bull’s ascent. A fact not lost on investors is that Trump’s reelection odds have probably gone up as a result of the Democrats’ ill-conceived, relentless attempts to sink him. Pundits still talk as though the 2020 […]

January 15, 2020 | Trump Got a Pretty Good Trade Deal After All

Stocks have been running in place since Friday, presumably developing thrust for a move to new record highs. Ordinarily, the signing of the trade pact with China might have been expected to provide more boost than we saw on Wednesday. But the news was tempered with some facts that evidently were not widely known. Specifically, […]

January 14, 2020 | A Growing Scandal Has Barely Fazed Boeing Shares

Boeing shares were up more than $5 at one point Tuesday, ostensibly on news that orders had fallen to a 16-year low. Go figure. The dearth of new business is a predictable result of the global grounding of the best-selling 737 MAX following two collisions that killed 346. Lately, there has been a non-stop onslaught […]

January 13, 2020 | Are You All-In and Brimming with Optimism?

AAPL’s vertical climb since October has grown treacherous, as the chart makes clear. Last week we told subscribers to be alert to the possibility of an important top at 314.28, but now we see another potentially daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 319.92. These targets, which lie just inches above Friday’s close, are purely technical, but […]

January 10, 2020 | AAPL Blowoff Must End, but When?

Paying close attention to AAPL is still the best way to know exactly what’s on the tiny brains of portfolio managers. Lately they have been acting as though the company can do no wrong. That’s arguable, but even if they are mistaken it doesn’t mean we should get in the stock’s way. To the contrary, […]

January 6, 2020 | Bull-Market Mania v. Iran: Place Your Bets!

  Critics of the air strike last week that took out Iran’s top general stopped just short of saying he deserved better.  Even the partisan hacks at CNN and MSNBC dared not push too hard against official reports that Iran was planning to step up attacks on U.S. military bases and diplomatic outposts.  The Democrats’ […]

December 29, 2019 | Little Room for Contrarians as Year Ends

After watching the bull market break all the rules for the last ten years, we know better than to think that even the most formidable-looking technical barrier will slow it down for more than a day or two. Indeed, seldom have we seen prices fall for three consecutive days — a rarity even in the […]

December 26, 2019 | Gold’s Straight-Jacket Escape

We’ve become used to seeing gold struggle for loft when stocks are rallying because the chimpanzees who move the markets can’t handle the implied mash-up of risk-on/risk-off strategies.  Lately, though, bullion has notched some sweet gains with stocks in their by-now reflexive rally mode. Bulls should take encouragement from the moderate surge in gold under […]

December 22, 2019 | It Smells Like Distribution…

Friday’s subdued rally had more than a faint whiff of distribution about it. DaBoyz had shorts on the run in the early going, with the Dow up about 230 points in the first hour. But instead of reaming bears a new orifice as we might have expected, the erstwhile Masters of the Universe struggled merely […]

December 19, 2019 | Boredom Could Stoke a Friday Rally

The stock market’s week has been so tedious, even with an impeachment, that we shouldn’t be surprised if something happens to cause traders to emerge from their coma. A compelling trendline that I’ve mentioned here before implies the surprise would likely be to the upside, since the Dow Industrials would need to rise 500 points […]

December 18, 2019 | No Way Bulls Can Shrug Off Boeing AND FedEx

When the Dow Industrials gained 100 points the other day as Boeing was getting clobbered, I compared it to a runner with a broken foot sprinting 100 meters in under 11 seconds. Bulls looked nearly as impressive on Wednesday, hanging tough while FedEx shares were getting the stuffing knocked out of them.  The stock was […]

December 15, 2019 | Watch Wall Street Celebrate Britain’s Election

  Now comes yet another investable idea to drive the bull market in the months ahead: Donald Trump’s reelection bid looks stronger than ever. His odds jumped following last week’s election in Great Britain. So decisively did voters rebuke Labor’s hard-left candidate for prime minister, Jeremy Corbyn, that it can be safely assumed that neither […]

December 10, 2019 | Why the Banking System’s ‘Cough’ in September Spells Trouble

Earlier, I referred to the repo-market flare-up in September as being like the death-foreshadowing cough in the second reel of a melodrama. In a subsequent interview I did with USA Watchdog’s Greg Hunter, I noted that it was especially curious that, two months after a short-squeeze on bank reserves spiked overnight rates to 10%, the supposed experts […]

December 3, 2019 | Shop Till You Drop, Please

Ya gotta love the way the stock market turns so docile most nights that it could almost be described as cuddly. Maybe in the way that snakes get cuddly if a warm-blooded mammal lies in a pit with a hundred of them.  Earlier in the day, the Dow Industrials were down about 450 points at […]

November 26, 2019 | A Key Index Faces ‘Moment of Truth’

The New York Composite Index lies within a hair of a trendline that has acted as either support or resistance numerous times since 2017. In this case it is potential resistance and a compelling one at that, just 12 (or so) points from the high achieved Tuesday afternoon. Peter Eliades was the first to call […]

November 24, 2019 | Flaming Teslas and Other Wall Street Scams

  Wall Street firms often “talk their book” in order to front-run their own customers. You can bet that if a big-time investment house is out on the tape with a bullish forecast for a loser like, say, Uber, they mean to unload the stock, not buy it. An upbeat report from an influential analyst […]

November 20, 2019 | Trade-Deal Imbeciles Rule the Headlines if Not the Stock Market

Just for fun, I often try to guess why stocks supposedly have gone up or down on a given day before checking to see how the ‘experts’ have explained it. Half of them appear to be card-carrying imbeciles; the other half, pathetic dolts whose job requires them to explain the stock market’s wacky gyrations in […]

November 19, 2019 | Precise DIA Rally Target Made Shorting a Breeze

  Regardless of whether today’s high turns out to be the mythical Mother of All Tops, it was easy money for anyone who initiated a short position in DIA as I’d suggested.  Weeks ago, Rick’s Picks spotlighted what stood to be an important Hidden Pivot rally target at 280.88. When it was missed by just 0.04 points […]

November 18, 2019 | Dow Move Above Some Big Obstacles Would Likely Clinch 30,000

The S&P mini-futures topped three ticks from an important rally target on Monday while the Dow missed a corresponding target by less than two hundredths of a percent. Is this the Mother of All Tops? Probably not, if for no other reason that we cannot expect to nail the top of a bull market that […]

November 12, 2019 | Are Bullion and Shares About to Reverse?

Gold and silver prices look primed to turn higher after getting pounded for the last two weeks.  Does that mean stock prices, which usually move opposite bullion’s, could top out at or near these levels? The chart provides good reason to think so — or to hope so, if you believe shares are overdue for […]

November 5, 2019 | Volatility Indicator Beckons Caution

The S&Ps and Nasdaq 100 have fallen moderately after overshooting important Hidden Pivot rally targets on Monday that I might have warranted as impenetrable.  This is bullish, as is the fact that AAPL, our #1 bellwether, still has an outstanding target about 10% above current levels.  Even so, and despite the fact that the U.S. […]

November 3, 2019 | Investors Revel in These Endlessly Good Times

What are we to make of Wall Street’s exuberance Friday over news concerning a U.S. economic expansion that refuses to die? Employers are hiring, consumers are spending and business is humming despite a dramatic economic slowdown in Asia, Europe, South America and elsewhere. Perhaps America really is an economic island, one blessed with unstinting support […]

October 30, 2019 | Wafting Into Thin Air

  rose Wednesday on the ho-hum news of a third rate-cut in 2019. Will it be the last? Of course not; it’s only a matter of time before Fed chief Powell dons his well-worn knee pads and gives Wall Street and the President whatever they want. For now, though, Powell & Co. would have us […]

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