- the source for market opinions


June 22, 2018 | What AMZN Can Tell Us

Earlier, I’d promoted AMZN as the only stock we need watch in order to get the stock market right. As long as it’s moving higher, the theory went, it would be difficult for the broad averages to fall.  And yet, that is exactly what has occurred in recent weeks: The retailing giant’s shares have gone […]

June 19, 2018 | When Distribution Quacks Like a Duck

Although the broad averages have risen sharply in each of the last three sessions, none of these short-squeeze lollapaloozas has recouped the even bigger losses sustained earlier in the day. Do we detect a pattern here? The biztainment media seem to wax enthusiastic whenever stocks trampoline off some ugly low like Tuesday’s. But we shouldn’t […]

June 18, 2018 | Tariff Fears Aren’t All That’s Troubling Stocks

Index futures are getting pummeled for the second straight night, supposedly because of heightened tariff fears. How is it that these fears lay dormant throughout Monday’s boring session, only to resurface like Kilauea lava during off-hours trading? As a former floor trader myself, I’d attribute this dynamic to the ease with which stocks can be […]

June 17, 2018 | NFLX Leaps, but AAPL and Others Fail to Follow

With the exception of AAPL, which has been getting lousy press lately, the FAANG stocks were positioned to hit ‘Hidden Pivot’ rally targets last week; only NFLX succeeded. This will have mildly bearish implications as the week begins, since the short squeeze that energized NFLX was very much a Friday kinda thing. Factor in rising […]

June 13, 2018 | End-of-Day Selloff Had a Whiff of Fear

Wednesday’s Fed announcement of another 25-basis-point tightening came exactly as expected, but the stock market took it poorly.  Shares initially swooned, but the session ended with a plunge to new lows that had the smell of fear.  Earlier, I had told subscribers to short the September E-Mini S&Ps if they fell to 2730, about 50 […]

June 12, 2018 | The Silver Lining for Fed-Watchers

The stock market was already brain-dead, but it’s no longer even twitching sporadically as traders prepare for what promises to be a less-than-momentous announcement from the FOMC on Wednesday. Wall Street is expecting a rate hike of 25 basis points, which would put the fed funds rate at 1.875%  That’s the exact midpoint of the […]

June 10, 2018 | ‘Dismal’ G7 Meeting Is Just Poker

News accounts of the G7 summit have been so dismal that one could begin to doubt Trump will have the tariff problem licked by July.  I’m holding to my prediction that he will, however, but it’s going to take some artful dealing in the meantime to get it done.  Merkel called Trump’s blunt rejection of […]

June 7, 2018 | Bad News for 14 Million of Us

It’s probably just coincidence, but Facebook is the headliner in the latest social-media scandal sheet just as we were giving Zuckerberg & Company the benefit of the doubt (see the tout below). It would appear that the privacy of 14 million subscribers has been compromised due to the latest online SNAFU.  A software bug reportedly […]

June 6, 2018 | Dow’s Surge Leaves No Doubt About the Next Rally

Although AMZN’s follow-through on Wednesday didn’t have the wattage we were looking for to pull the stock market higher, the broad averages themselves provided a clear confirmation that they will continue their upward trek, at least for a while. I’ve provided a precise target at 25,803 that I am 90% certain will be reached, which […]

June 4, 2018 | Why a Strong Dollar Won’t Hurt the U.S. Economy

How will the U.S. economy, particularly exports, cope with a rising dollar? Pretty well, we should expect. Even though a strong dollar will create drag for U.S. companies geared to selling abroad, there are reasons to doubt that it will slow the steady trek higher this summer that I’ve projected for U.S. stocks.  For one, […]

June 3, 2018 | Trump Is Why Stocks Will Move Higher

Last week Rick’s Picks projected a nearly 300-point rally in the S&P 500, although we couldn’t say why. Now we know the answer:  Trump.  Even if the half of America afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) can’t see it, much less applaud it, just about everything the President’s done lately has come up a winner.  First, he […]

May 31, 2018 | Misinterpreting the Markets

Elsewhere on the page, I’ve detailed the case for a nearly 300-point rally in the S&P 500.  This goes squarely against my gut feeling that the U.S. economy will be in recession before the year ends.  The chart I’ve presented starkly refutes this. It says the economy is more likely to stumble along, producing stock-market […]

May 29, 2018 | Markets Are Firmly in the Grip of the ‘Dead Zone’

The Dow Industrials recouped about a third of their rather significant losses before the bell — all within what we must acknowledge as a 2000-point ‘comfort zone’ ranging from around 23,000 to 25,000. The swings could become mind-numbing even if gurus continue to predict, as is their wont, that ‘something’ is about to happen. But […]

May 28, 2018 | Dow Looks Primed to Lay an Egg

Without going too deeply into the technical details, I’ll mention that the Dow Industrials look primed to lay an egg in the days ahead, if not for significantly longer. The ABC-type trade set-up shown in the chart usually works as a kind of bullish springboard, but the fact that buyers couldn’t make hay with it […]

May 21, 2018 | Your Daily Scandal Sheet!

I’ve become more bluntly opinionated in these pages lately because following the markets from a purely technical perspective has become almost too boring to care about. Gurus by nature are wont to predict that ‘something’ is about to happen. However, long stretches of tedium, including such innumerable, senseless rallies to nowhere as we’ve seen in […]

May 18, 2018 | Has Henny Penny seen the small caps lately?

Henny Penny or more commonly called Chicken Little in the U.S. is a folk tale about a chicken that believes the sky is falling when an acorn lands on its head. That’s what I see when I turn on television everyday. Just one Henny Penny after another proclaiming the end of the bull market. The […]

May 16, 2018 | Gold Bugs Gone But Not Forgotten

As a recovering Gold bug I have great sympathy for what die-hard bitcoin fans are about to experience. Years and years of grinding lower with the occasional wicked spikes up that bear markets are known for. Don’t get me wrong– I’m with the minarchists (e.g. Libertarians) and anarcho-capitalists in my excitement for crypto-currencies and their […]

May 15, 2018 | The Screws are Tightening

The 10 year treasury hit 3% today and 2 year treasuries haven’t been this high since back in 2008.  Is the 5,000 year low in rates behind us? Let’s just say I don’t think we’ll see these lows again in my lifetime. If you are considering selling your house this could be your last chance […]

May 14, 2018 | All Eyes Are on the Euro

The Euro/USD looks to have made a temporary low and should bounce a bit here. We don’t normally discuss currency pairs and the Forex market at Rick’s Picks but it’s important to understand what’s happening globally to understand what will happen domestically. With the constant bashing of the Fed compared to what’s going on in Europe the […]

May 10, 2018 | If You’re Looking for the Big Smackdown..

Stocks ratcheted higher Thursday, taunting bears to short each new peak as the day wore on. We tried once ourselves, using a 2721.50 target in the E-Mini S&Ps that in retrospect was probably a little too obvious. The eventual top occurred at 2725.00, but the shallow pullback that followed would make any bear nervous about […]

May 9, 2018 | Don’t Believe Oil Prices Have Discounted the Worst

Here’s a headline that cries out to be rebuked: Oil Traders Have Already Priced in the Effects of Sanctions. I’m not so sure myself — am on record, actually, with a prediction that prices will top $80 a barrel before this run-up ends. I should mention that the headline was not in some rinky-dink newspaper that […]

May 8, 2018 | 2.89-Point Dow Rally Was No Small Feat

Give DaBoyz credit for levitating the Dow by 2.89 points on Tuesday. That may seem like a pittance, but it was actually quite a feat for them to eke out a small gain with the price of crude head-butting the psychologically crucial $70 level. Although there is room to disagree about how much higher oil […]

May 7, 2018 | Please Welcome David Isham!

With surgery and an indeterminate recovery period just ahead, I’ve given my colleague David Isham (EYE-sham) free rein to speak his mind here in my absence (which I hope will be brief). I was somewhat startled to see that, in his first Morning Line at-bat here yesterday, he boldly predicted that the Dow Industrials would hit 40,000 […]

May 6, 2018 | Prepare for Consolidation and Confusion

The DOW remains in a broad trading channel currently ranging between 28,000 on the top and as low as 18,000 on the bottom side. Consider bonds are 10 to 1 in size compared to equities globally.  Just a small amount of money coming out of bonds will blow the stock market through the roof.  How […]

May 3, 2018 | ‘Bear Market: The Movie!’

If they ever make such a film, Andy Warhol’s Empire could serve as an artistic model.  A cult classic that is seldom if ever screened outside of the Warhol Museum in Pittsburgh, Empire runs slightly longer than eight hours. Every thrill-packed moment of it is devoted to a static image of the Empire State Building on a sultry night […]

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