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May 9, 2021 | When Bulls Turn Certain

We went out on a limb here last week with speculation that, just maybe, the bull market was topping. Alas, Friday ended with a short-covering orgy that bloodied bears, leaving the boldest of them festooned on the ropes. My hunch had been rooted in technical factors, including an ominous head-and-shoulders pattern that has been evolving […]

May 2, 2021 | Here’s One Fraud We Can Eliminate

  First, let me titillate permabears with a ray of hope:  A potentially important top may have formed last week in, respectively, the E-Mini S&Ps and in IWM, a proxy for the Russell 2000. The former stalled inches from a ‘Hidden Pivot’ resistance at 4222.82, while the latter turned down precisely on schedule after tracing […]

April 25, 2021 | Tax-Hike Talk Just an Annoyance

Headline writers hyperventilated last week over the prospect of higher capital gains taxes while the stock market took it in stride. Biden wants to double the levy on long-term investments to 39.6%, ending a felicitous run at 20% that was enacted 40 years ago under President Reagan. The Wealthy Will Fight Him to the Death, proclaimed […]

April 18, 2021 | A Simple Explanation for Bitcoin’s Plunge

Bitcoin mania hit an air pocket on Sunday with a so-far $11,500 plunge from last week’s record-high $64,858. Groping for an explanation, Bloomberg and other mainstream sources attributed the drop to speculation that the U.S. Treasury might crack down on digital-money laundering. Yeah, sure. This tired story has been marking time for a decade, ever […]

April 11, 2021 | A Contrarian Bet Against Inflation

The inflation trade is struggling for loft, a potential victim of its own, wild popularity. “We don’t have strong reflation-trade momentum at the moment because people are waiting for more data,” said Daniel Tenengauzer, markets strategy chief at Bank of New York Mellon. By his logic, all that it would take to stoke inflation would […]

April 4, 2021 | Biden’s $2.2 Trillion Trojan Horse

Biden’s $2.2 trillion ‘infrastructure’ plan is quite ambitious as far as Government boondoggles go. But what if it’s just the Democrats’ opening bid? “We can do $10 trillion!” exhorted Alexandria Octavio-Cortez in a remark that is unlikely to be challenged by fellow Democrats or the New York Times.  Even $10 trillion would be chump change, however, […]

March 28, 2021 | The Myth of American Affluence

The technological wizardry that has given us smart phones, desktop computers, electric cars and flat-screen TVs has masked a pernicious decline in America’s standard of living since the 1950s. One area where this is painfully obvious is the deterioration of customer service. Recall the scene in Back to the Future when a car pulls into a filling […]

March 21, 2021 | Just How Smart IS the Smart Money?

I’ve avoided the pandemic, politics and economic doomsday as topics recently because there’s only so much one can say about them. This is especially true of the coming bear market.  Coming exactly when, you might ask? Of course, even the very best of us gurus is unlikely to produce the correct answer, other than in […]

March 14, 2021 | Making Up for Lost Time

The rabid mania that has seized the world of investables has gotten so much ink lately that I thought I’d explore an equally curious phenomenon with a far greater impact on our daily lives. Have you noticed how time seems to have taken wing during the pandemic?  One Friday follows the last so quickly that, […]

March 7, 2021 | Why This Top Is So Hard to Short

  No one said it would be easy to get short at the top. This bull market is proving especially challenging to fade because the herd knows how grotesquely overvalued stocks are. With so many traders eager to bet the ‘don’t’ line, the broad averages have started to behave like El Diablo (see photo above). […]

February 28, 2021 | Why Weimar-Style Inflation Is Nearly Impossible

The global credit-blowout has stoked fears of a money-printing catastrophe like the one that wrecked Germany’s economy a hundred years ago, planting the seeds of World War II.  However, even a cursory look at the Weimar hyperinflation of 1921-23 reveals why it is extremely unlikely to happen again, especially on a global scale.  It was […]

February 25, 2021 | Even with Bells Ringing, This Top Will Be Tough to Short

They don’t ring a bell at the top of bull markets, as the saying goes, but perhaps this time it will be different.  Indeed, everysentient guru and talking head who is not shilling for Wall Street is properly bearish, and even the chimpanzees who make their living rotating Other People’s Money into flavor-of-the-month investment themes […]

February 22, 2021 | Schumer’s Chance to Seem Useful

  [Dear readers, I am taking a desperately needed break from telling you why a stock market crash is long overdue, and why Biden & Friends are finally going to make it happen.  Full disclosure: I have not read a newspaper or watched the news since November. RA ] We’ve all grown so weary of spam callers […]

February 14, 2021 | Weighing the Risks of Vaccination

    Been vaccinated yet?  I haven’t, although I’m trying not to give friends the impression that I’m making some sort of political statement. That means not emailing them links to every vaccine horror story that surfaces, or to growing evidence that the vaccine may not be all that it’s cracked up to be.  That […]

February 7, 2021 | Tuning Out the News

  This is a perfect time to catch up on the best of television, since so many of us are watching more of it these days, particularly on Saturday nights. I’ve been assiduously avoiding  all news for the last month or so and am faintly aware of the impeachment proceedings and Biden’s energy pipeline kill-shot […]

January 31, 2021 | How Gamestop’s Nuttiness Will Change the Coming Bear Market

  The news media went all-in over the weekend trying to explain the significance of the Gamestop saga, but because few traders were asked about it, there was little in this torrent of analysis to enlighten. Most of the reporters, talking heads and pundits focused on the obvious, sensationalizing a story about how the little […]

January 24, 2021 | When ‘Money of the Mind’ Dies

  A little more than two decades ago, amidst the wild excesses of the dot-com boom, I wrote what turned out to be an epitaph for those heady times in the The San Francisco Examiner. It bore the headline Monsters from the Id Threaten the System, a metaphorical nightmare that I’ll explain shortly. Then as now, vast […]

January 20, 2021 | ‘Vaccine Hopes’ Must Now Face Reality

Those who write about such things have attributed virtually every stock-market rally since March 23 to ‘vaccine hopes’.  They have overworked and over-hyped this phrase with no sense of irony or awareness; for it is not so much ‘hope’ that has powered stocks to insane levels, but stimulus steroids pumped into a beast that was […]

January 17, 2021 | How Good/Bad a Hand Has Biden Been Dealt?

  Stocks have turned timid, although it remains to be seen whether the moderate selling that ended the week will gain momentum as Biden’s inauguration approaches.  Regardless, the smell of distribution is in the air, and it is not subtle.  As the tempo of it picks up, expect DaBoyz to work overtime trying to convince […]

January 10, 2021 | This Is No Time to Give Up on Gold

  With gold’s gratuitous, 4% plunge on Friday, bullion has once again affirmed its reputation as one of the nastiest, most frustrating assets an investor can own. Its chief enemy is a global network of shamans, thimble-riggers and feather merchants who make their living borrowing bullion from the central banks for practically nothing, then lending […]

January 7, 2021 | Why Copper’s Stall at $3.63 Is Ominous

  [Note: This essay ran earlier in the week but I am re-running it because Copper broke out today on the long-term chart, hitting a so-far high of $3.71. RA]  Copper prices are up 75% since cratering in March at $1.97 a pound. Since ‘doctor’ copper, with a supposed PhD. in economics, has a reputation […]

January 6, 2021 | Wall Street Didn’t Even Flinch

Interesting times, for sure, but apparently not quite interesting enough to dampen the ardor of wildly exuberant buyers on Wall Street.  With patriots storming the doors of the Capitol and a reported shooting inside the building, the Dow Industrials still managed to finish the day with an immoderate gain of 438 points. Do the institutional […]

January 3, 2021 | Why Copper’s Stall at $3.63 Is Ominous

Copper prices are up 75% since cratering in March at $1.97 a pound. Since ‘doctor’ copper, with a supposed PhD. in economics, has a reputation for accurately predicting growth trends, does this mean a global boom is at hand?  This seems most unlikely, given the vast expansion of public debt used to temporarily counteract the […]

January 1, 2021 | Happy New Year!

To all of my subscribers and readers, warm holiday greeting and best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous new year.  It begins with many troubling issues unresolved, most particularly the question of who will be the next U.S. president. Various vaccines promise to ease the pandemic, but possibly not in time to prevent many […]

December 29, 2020 | Seasonal Rally Nipping at Bears’ Heels

The broad averages have been lapping at some long-term rally targets this week, although not so voraciously that bears should dive for cover quite yet. A 304.07 target for DIA has been exceeded so far by 1.63 points; a 312.29 target in QQQ by 2.35 points; and 12,829 target in the E-Mini Nasdaq by 89 […]

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