- the source for market opinions


July 5, 2020 | Sorting Facts from Lies

  Each of us seeks our own version of the truth when we turn on the news. Tucker Carlson, one of the most courageous and honest journalists of this era, is my choice. He has excoriated Democrats and Republicans alike for their moral cowardice in coddling torch mobs. I can’t get my liberal friends to […]

June 30, 2020 | How the Dow Could Break 30,000

I’ve been wondering what might provide the catalyst to push the Dow above 30,000, and this may be it, from Bloomberg:  “A strain of virus spreading in Chinese pigs has shown it can also infect humans, with researchers suggesting that another pathogen with pandemic potential waits in the wings behind Covid-19.” There’s no telling how […]

June 28, 2020 | Why Inflation Doesn’t Have a Prayer

  V-shape mania appears to be tapering off. Years from now, market historians will come to regard the spectacular rally since late March as a case study in mass psychosis. The explosive resurgence of bulls is not only unsupported by economic reality, it flouts common sense in ways that only extraordinary popular delusions can. There […]

June 25, 2020 | Buy the Dips and You Can’t Lose, Right?

If you thought the resurgence of Covid-19 in the U.S. would put a damper on Wall Street’s orgy, you’d have been wrong. Stocks continued their heedless ascent on Thursday even though the pandemic is close to extinguishing a fragile economic recovery that had barely gotten off the ground. The Dow rose 300 points, demonstrating yet […]

June 23, 2020 | AAPL Will Continue to Lead the Charge

AAPL has blown past a longstanding rally target at 370.15, implying it is bound for yet another at 385.487 that lies a further 5.4% above. Because the stock is almost certain to get there, the broad averages can be expected to move higher with it. This seems hard to believe, given the grim turn that […]

June 22, 2020 | Hello Darkness, My Old Friend

Violence has erupted in Seattle, Washington D.C. and some other cities Monday night, a development that is likely to fuel a continuation of the rally that kicked off with a short-squeeze late Sunday. There were other factors present that Wall Street seems to love, include a resurgence of Covid-19 nationally and a some dreadful news […]

June 21, 2020 | Time for Bulls to Start Worrying

Although the rally on Wall Street flouts common sense and arguably even sanity, born-again bulls continue to rampage. What will put an end to their foolishness? Surely not more grim economic data, nor an increase in what is already the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression, nor a wave of business failures that could […]

June 17, 2020 | Bulls Running Out of Steam

Bulls showed no pluck on Wednesday, so we shouldn’t be surprised if they let the reins go slack ahead of the weekend. Given the tempo of truly appalling news and the possibility that something horribly destabilizing could occur between Friday and Monday, a trader would have to be crazy to load up on stocks right […]

June 14, 2020 | Tail-Risk Hubris Goes All-In

Investment manias are nothing new on Wall Street, but this time the heavy betting is on the mania itself.  Speculating on volatility is the latest fad, and it is metastasizing so quickly that in just two short months wagers that the stock market will grow even crazier have become the actual cause of its craziness.  […]

June 11, 2020 | Market’s Ups and Downs, Not the Pandemic, Drive America’s Moods

Reporters and their editors have been getting whipped around by the stock market, since the market drives the news, not the other way around. That’s why we were battered senseless with ridiculously optimistic headlines about the increasing likelihood of a v-shaped economic recovery. Lo, stocks have fallen hard for just one day, and the sunny […]

June 10, 2020 | Good News and Even Bad News Fail to Lift Market

Nothing like a little good news to stop the stock market’s rally dead in its tracks. Powell announced that nearly-free money would remain available to big borrowers in more or less unlimited quantities until 2023. The Dow Industrials dropped nearly 300 points on the news, like a six-year-old having a snit when his sundae arrives […]

June 9, 2020 | Two Winners Are Still ‘Live’. Are You On Board?

Two ‘mechanical’ trades I’d disseminated to subscribers Monday night and Tuesday morning, respectively, are showing gains totaling around $7200 at the moment. They were flagged in ‘tout’ updates for the E-Mini S&Ps and August Gold, and both included charts to help you visualize my instructions. The Gold tout was rated ‘6.6’ out of 10– not […]

June 7, 2020 | Optimism, or Just the Madness of Crowds?

  The Dismal Scientists were hard at work over the weekend, cheering the market’s powerful short-squeeze rally as though stocks somehow deserve to be trading at or near-record levels. Speculators evidently were not thinking about the pandemic’s effects on the global economy, only about a statistical blip in job creation that flouts common sense. Who […]

June 4, 2020 | Are Wild-Eyed Speculators About to Make Mr. Market’s Day?

  The shockingly powerful rally from March’s bombed-out low has stalled in a very unshocking place, three ticks beneath a secondary top recorded just before stocks really fell apart.  So far, the pullback has been shallow, implying bulls are sizing up the challenge presented by all-time highs achieved in mid-February.  Getting there would be quite a feat, […]

June 3, 2020 | Buy an iPhone to Help Pump the Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100, bloated with helium-inflated FAANG stocks that portfolio managers never sell, appears all but certain to achieve new record highs, probably within the next 2-3 days. With the index trading 250 points lower a week ago, I’d said that a two-day close above 9585 would all but clinch a move to at least […]

June 2, 2020 | V-Shaped Mania on Wall Street Cannot End Well

With the nation in deep crisis, stocks continued on their heedless path higher. The seemingly demented rally is demonstrating yet again that bull markets at some point decouple so completely from reality as to mock those who thrive by promoting them. By now, the spun story that investors are looking past the pandemic and focusing […]

June 1, 2020 | Antifa Coming Soon to Your Neighborhood?

Just when toilet paper supplies were starting to loosen up, we learn there’s a run on pepper spray. Do people who live in or near big cities dare leave home without it?  You may be in greater danger than you think, what with Antifa threatening to fan out into the suburbs. More effective than pepper […]

May 26, 2020 | All Heaven Breaks Loose to Start the Week

All heaven broke loose ahead of Tuesday’s opening, starting with a gusher of headlines suggesting the worst is behind us. The Wall Street Journal led with a story about how trucking activity has picked up, and even the hotels and cruise lines are stirring. The pick-up in tempo is slight so far, as the Journal was forced to concede, […]

May 25, 2020 | Holiday Weekend Was More Spectating Than Spending

  A recent newspaper article about superspreaders — stadium events, concerts and outdoor festivals that effectively bathe crowds in Covid-19 — noted that a boisterous fan can spew viral particles that remain airborne for as long as 12 minutes.  There’s additional evidence that when we steep in this microscopic spume for a couple of hours, […]

May 22, 2020 | Here’s What Else the Fed Can Do…

With trillions of stimulus dollars raining down on America already, how much more of them does the economy need? Mnuchin and Powell differ on this, which, fortunately for taxpayers, is an argument playing out in Congress that has put any further sums on hold.  The Fed chief thinks a recovery will be at risk if […]

May 18, 2020 | Entire U.S. Market Now Trades Like a Stock in Drug Trials

  Who could have imagined that the entire universe of U.S. stocks would someday trade like the shares of a small pharmaceutical company with a supposed miracle cure for cancer in the works? That, evidently, is what Wall Street has become: a drug-stock crap-shoot-on-steroids. The Dow Industrials shot up more than a thousand points Monday […]

May 17, 2020 | A Simple Way to Stop the Virus from Killing

Although the spread of Covid-19 has gripped the world with fear, there has been precious little discussion of the one thing that could stop the disease in its tracks: our natural immune systems. Although we habitually seek cures in the form of vaccines and other drugs, our bodies are capable of outperforming them with little […]

May 14, 2020 | Lockdown Blues

Thursday’s dip got bought so ferociously that bears will think twice about getting in the way again, at least for a day or two. That was the purpose of the rally, even if there were no conspirators promoting it, just bears terrorizing themselves.  There was no news to have caused the explosive move other than […]

May 13, 2020 | Is the Other Shoe About to Drop?

Bull got pushed back on their heels for a change Wednesday, although sellers were unable to deliver a coup de grace in the final hour. The Dow Industrials ended the day with a 516-point loss nonetheless, unable to extract much yardage from short-covering. We’ve all been waiting for the other shoe to drop, but has […]

May 12, 2020 | The Bullish Mega-Landlord Story Doesn’t Add Up

  Continuing on yesterday’s theme of how the stock market has completely decoupled from reality, we note that the shares of some publicly traded companies immersed in the home rental business have gone bonkers. A story on the front page of Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal noted that “Investors are flocking to the U.S.’s mega-landlords, drawn by signs […]

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