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December 3, 2019 | Shop Till You Drop, Please

Ya gotta love the way the stock market turns so docile most nights that it could almost be described as cuddly. Maybe in the way that snakes get cuddly if a warm-blooded mammal lies in a pit with a hundred of them.  Earlier in the day, the Dow Industrials were down about 450 points at […]

November 26, 2019 | A Key Index Faces ‘Moment of Truth’

The New York Composite Index lies within a hair of a trendline that has acted as either support or resistance numerous times since 2017. In this case it is potential resistance and a compelling one at that, just 12 (or so) points from the high achieved Tuesday afternoon. Peter Eliades was the first to call […]

November 24, 2019 | Flaming Teslas and Other Wall Street Scams

  Wall Street firms often “talk their book” in order to front-run their own customers. You can bet that if a big-time investment house is out on the tape with a bullish forecast for a loser like, say, Uber, they mean to unload the stock, not buy it. An upbeat report from an influential analyst […]

November 20, 2019 | Trade-Deal Imbeciles Rule the Headlines if Not the Stock Market

Just for fun, I often try to guess why stocks supposedly have gone up or down on a given day before checking to see how the ‘experts’ have explained it. Half of them appear to be card-carrying imbeciles; the other half, pathetic dolts whose job requires them to explain the stock market’s wacky gyrations in […]

November 19, 2019 | Precise DIA Rally Target Made Shorting a Breeze

  Regardless of whether today’s high turns out to be the mythical Mother of All Tops, it was easy money for anyone who initiated a short position in DIA as I’d suggested.  Weeks ago, Rick’s Picks spotlighted what stood to be an important Hidden Pivot rally target at 280.88. When it was missed by just 0.04 points […]

November 18, 2019 | Dow Move Above Some Big Obstacles Would Likely Clinch 30,000

The S&P mini-futures topped three ticks from an important rally target on Monday while the Dow missed a corresponding target by less than two hundredths of a percent. Is this the Mother of All Tops? Probably not, if for no other reason that we cannot expect to nail the top of a bull market that […]

November 12, 2019 | Are Bullion and Shares About to Reverse?

Gold and silver prices look primed to turn higher after getting pounded for the last two weeks.  Does that mean stock prices, which usually move opposite bullion’s, could top out at or near these levels? The chart provides good reason to think so — or to hope so, if you believe shares are overdue for […]

November 5, 2019 | Volatility Indicator Beckons Caution

The S&Ps and Nasdaq 100 have fallen moderately after overshooting important Hidden Pivot rally targets on Monday that I might have warranted as impenetrable.  This is bullish, as is the fact that AAPL, our #1 bellwether, still has an outstanding target about 10% above current levels.  Even so, and despite the fact that the U.S. […]

November 3, 2019 | Investors Revel in These Endlessly Good Times

What are we to make of Wall Street’s exuberance Friday over news concerning a U.S. economic expansion that refuses to die? Employers are hiring, consumers are spending and business is humming despite a dramatic economic slowdown in Asia, Europe, South America and elsewhere. Perhaps America really is an economic island, one blessed with unstinting support […]

October 30, 2019 | Wafting Into Thin Air

  rose Wednesday on the ho-hum news of a third rate-cut in 2019. Will it be the last? Of course not; it’s only a matter of time before Fed chief Powell dons his well-worn knee pads and gives Wall Street and the President whatever they want. For now, though, Powell & Co. would have us […]

October 29, 2019 | Yellow Flag Out for AAPL

I drum-rolled AAPL Sunday night because it was stalled in a dangerous place, an inch from a crucial resistance at 248.48 (see tout, below). The stock holds the key to the bull market, which is all but certain to continue as long as Apple shares are moving higher. Coincidentally, AAPL and the broad averages somewhat […]

October 27, 2019 | Bitcoin’s Big Leap Puts a $21,032 Target in Play

Bitcoin has taken a so-far $2500 leap, its most powerful rally in nearly a year, since Thursday evening, when Rick’s Picks issued a ‘buy’ signal on YouTube and Facebook.  It was triggered when a widely tracked bitcoin vehicle with the symbol BRTI touched $7609 a day earlier. That represented a spectacular fall from the $13,855 peak reached in June. ‘Mechanical’ […]

October 20, 2019 | Time for Investors to Recalculate Trump’s Reelection Odds

The odds of a Trump victory in 2020 may have reached a tipping point last week, even if few will have noticed.  One influential conservative columnist who did notice was Peggy Noonan. Writing in the weekend Wall Street Journal, she speculated that the Democrats, helped by Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior, could conceivably change some minds about […]

October 15, 2019 | Shares of Boeing, Johnson & Johnson Flout Good Sense

A glance at the charts of Boeing and Johnson & Johnson shows what stock-market bears are up against as they patiently await a meaningful correction of excesses that have been building in the financial system for nearly a decade.  Are the portfolio managers who support these two stocks without a trace of nervousness crazy, or […]

October 11, 2019 | Cynics Poised to Win Trade War

With a steady barrage of trade-war tweets that have alternated between promise and threat, Trump has screwed with investors’ heads for so long that most of them simply want to get it over with.  They undoubtedly would love to see the U.S. and China settle their differences. But stock-market bulls should be careful what they […]

October 7, 2019 | On Wall Street, the Whoopee Cushion Rules

The Dow Industrials ended the week with an 800-point Whoopee Cushion bounce that recouped two-thirds of a 1300-point loss suffered days earlier. The swoon, exhilarating as it may have seemed to traders, will do little to brighten an economic picture that has gone from boom to gloom since mid-summer. One might think the dark cloud […]

October 2, 2019 | Warren and the End of Days

  Sellers turned gutless Wednesday night after swinging a wrecking ball for most of the day. Shortly before midnight, index futures were trading moderately higher. Usually, prices move at night only when impelled by news that makes buying or selling over short stretches nearly riskless.  It wasn’t news that sent the Dow Industrials plummeting nearly […]

October 1, 2019 | GM Strikes Are Not What They Used to Be

“As goes GM, so goes the nation.”  That was certainly true in the 1950s, when the statement supposedly was made by the company’s CEO during Congressional testimony. But it is not even remotely true any longer. GM still matters, of course, just not much.  Striking workers have idled 30 auto plants across the nation for […]

September 30, 2019 | A Permabear’s Dilemma as a Market Top Draws Near

[In observance of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, updates will resume Tuesday after sundown. RA] Readers rightfully took me to task last week for putting out two headlines that appeared to at least mildly contradict one other and which taken together could only have left one wanting more clarity. The first said Don’t Load Up on Puts […]

September 26, 2019 | Don’t Load Up on Puts Quite Yet

We’ve been monitoring Apple shares closely because they look very likely to rise at least 10% above their current $220 price before bulls are spent. AAPL is a powerful engine for the bull market, and a big rally in the stock would all but ensure that the broad averages get dragged higher or at least […]

September 25, 2019 | Nothing Says ‘Buy Stocks!’ Like an Impeachment

So, impeachment proceedings are now bullish? But for whom? That question will likely hang over America until the 2020 election. In the meantime, it’s possible the all-seeing, all-knowing stock market will continue to rally because investors anticipate a mellower outcome — i.e. a vote to censure the President. This is not only a realistic possibility, […]

September 24, 2019 | One of These Days, Trump’s Tweets Will Fail to Lift Stocks

  Trump has been leading the stock market around by the nose for months, but one of these days traders are bound to tire of playing Pavlov’s dog to his tweets. On Tuesday, speaking before the United Nations, the President had an opportunity to score a few points with China ahead of trade talks set […]

September 22, 2019 | Digital Age Banking Overrated — and Hugely Overvalued

The hubris surrounding Stripe’s steep move up the venture ladder is a sad commentary on today’s financial scene.  The company, whose name is not exactly a household word, processes online payments. It was valued at $35 billion in a recent fundraising round, notwithstanding the fact that entry barriers to competition are almost nil. Lyft, for […]

September 19, 2019 | Repo Rumpus Foreshadows a Short Squeeze on the Dollar

  [I am leaving this essay up over the weekend to increase its exposure. RA] The Fed’s so-far $128 billion intervention in the repo market slipped off the Wall Street Journal‘s front page by evening, hardly a concern. Don’t be surprised if years from now the squeeze on short-term borrowers that caused this flurry of excitement is recalled […]

September 18, 2019 | Apple Sucks, but It’s Still Going to at Least $242

  Because Apple’s story has grown dull as dirt, it is appropriate that we focus on the company’s shares as a key bull-market bellwether. Portfolio managers are surely aware that iPhone sales are weakening and that the Cupertino giant has lost its way as an innovator. Nor can any of them be excited by Apple’s […]

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