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November 12, 2018 | Bear Market Will Require Trading-Style Changes

Updates for all of the trading vehicles tracked below are bearish, implying that Monday’s hard selloff did not exhaust the downtrend. Even so, our two key bellwethers, AMZN and AAPL, are both closing on interim supports that look likely to evince tradeable rebounds. I am becoming less enthused by the day about bottom-fishing such supports, […]

November 11, 2018 | Read This If You Don’t Like to Be Fooled or Surprised

The FAANGs barely blipped on Friday, suggesting they will continue to drag the broad averages lower. They fell by nearly 3%, performing much worse than the Dow and S&P 500, which shed, respectively, 0.7% and 1.0%. Expect portfolio managers to continue rotating money between the high-fliers and the stock market’s also-rans, with the goal of […]

November 8, 2018 | Mind Games Keep the Aging Bull Alive

The flow of institutional money into stocks is under such expert control these days that we shouldn’t doubt DaBoyz’ ability to manipulate the broad averages to new record highs regardless of economic headwinds. On days when the FAANGs are soft, which was the case on Thursday, the Dow is firm. Conversely, when the FAANGs are […]

November 7, 2018 | Midterm Results Trigger a Bullish Frenzy, but Why?

When I projected a 549-point Dow rally here Tuesday night, I wasn’t expecting it to unfold in a single day. The actual gain was 545 points, an exuberant reaction to a midterm election that will split power on Capitol hill between the two parties. The rally left the Industrial Average exactly 771  points shy of […]

November 6, 2018 | Wall Street Oddsmakers Feverishly at Work

It’s 8:24 p.m., and traders have yet to guess the outcome of the mid-term elections. The E-Mini S&Ps are up a few points, suggesting the results are perceived on Wall Street as a coin toss at the moment. We can expect traders to do much better this time in discounting the possibility of a big […]

November 5, 2018 | Democrats Should Be Careful What They Wish For

Election day is finally here! The results are certain to have a profound impact on investors’ outlook for the economy, although no one can predict with confidence how things are about to turn out. My gut feeling is that Republicans will win big, rebuking a mainstream media whose polls are just as fanciful as they […]

November 1, 2018 | AAPL Plunges, Adding to the Bull Market’s Woes

Shares of Apple, the most valuable company in the world, were getting hit hard Thursday night after the company predicted weak holiday sales. I’d spotlighted the stock here yesterday, noting that as long as AAPL continues to move higher, it would keep the U.S. bull market alive. At the time, it looked as though buyers […]

October 31, 2018 | Why the Party Is Over

Another brutal day for bears. Be sure to check out my latest tout for AAPL, since, more than any other stock on the planet, it will determine whether the bull market is in fact dead. I find it extremely difficult to imagine why this would not be the case, considering that the Wall of Worry […]

October 30, 2018 | ‘Markets Move After Everyone Has Given Up’

Is it safe to go back in the water? Merely asking that question is to suggest that only an imbecile would dive fearlessly back in the drink. Even so, there are most surely enough imbeciles to keep stocks buoyant in the days or even weeks ahead. If they eventually are joined by panic-stricken bears as […]

October 29, 2018 | The ‘Lunatic Stocks’ Have Probably Bottomed

Monday’s slow-motion selloff didn’t generate much fear, but it likely exhausted sellers for a while. Although I’ve put out a somewhat lower target in the E-Mini S&Ps for Tuesday, the big moves in the FAANGs appear to be over, or very nearly so. Rick’s Picks had been using a 1496 downside target in AMZN that came with […]

October 28, 2018 | Would-Be Market Collapse Has Turned into a Yawner

After the initial, exhilarating plunge on October 10, bears have struggled for every dime of additional gains. The herky-jerky downtrend since, far from being a collapse, has been a yawner that will have instilled precious little fear on Wall Street or elsewhere. The current mood of traders is nicely captured in a think-piece by my colleague Wolf […]

October 25, 2018 | Violent Swings Just a Warm-up for What’s Coming

Easy come, easy go. AMZN stunned traders with a 135-point gain Thursday from the bombed-out depths of Wednesday’s selloff. Then, after the close, the stock reversed steeply, shedding 180 points and sucking tens of billions of dollars from stock markets in the U.S. and around the world in mere minutes. A disappointing forecast for the […]

October 24, 2018 | Why 600-Point Plunge Wasn’t Quite Enough

It may have felt like stocks were free-falling Wednesday, but for many of us who were short, making ‘easy’ money was like pulling teeth for most of the day. The broad averages jerked around for hours after falling hard in the early going. As the morning wore on, it felt at times as though DaBoyz […]

October 23, 2018 | Is That the Fat Lady in the Wings?

Is the fat lady warming up her pipes?  It certainly seems that way. Setting the chaotic swirl of global drama to music would be worthy of Verdi’s talents. Silhouetted behind a sheer curtain is the caravan, a radioactive caterpillar inching its way toward the U.S. border; leftist protestors are in high dudgeon, peeing on Senators […]

October 22, 2018 | News Media Once Again Dead Wrong About the Mood of America

The news media have gone off the deep end once again with their tone-deaf misjudgment of America’s mood prior to a national election. Tune to MSNBC or CNN and you might think we are all clamoring to see the Central American ‘caravan’ double in size every few days until it reaches the Rio Grande; to […]

October 21, 2018 | Wall of Worry Now Includes a Serious Downturn in Real Estate

Existing-home sales continue to fall, increasing the odds that the aging stock-market bull has finally breathed its last. If so, the selloffs we’ve seen on Wall Street over the last few weeks have not been merely corrective, but the beginning of a bear market that promises to be as nasty as the bull has been […]

October 18, 2018 | Falling Stocks Reflect a Darkening Reality

Stocks fell hard Thursday, supposedly because of  growing US-Saudi tensions over the gruesome murder of  Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist who has been tough on the monarchy and easy on the Muslim Brotherhood. If such tensions did in fact push stocks lower, as a headline in the Wall Street Journal tried to suggest, then why didn’t oil prices […]

October 17, 2018 | $120 Billion for Uber? Investors Must Be Out of Their Minds

The spectacular orgy of greed surrounding Uber’s impending IPO shows how out-of-whack valuations have gotten. Wall Street thinks the ride-hailing company could fetch as much as $120 billion when it is retailed to the rubes early next year. That’s nearly double the valuation of Uber’s last fundraising round just two months ago, according to the Wall […]

October 16, 2018 | Do MSNBC and the Pollsters Think We Are Idiots?

The burlesque over Sen. Elizabeth’s Warren’s supposed Cherokee ancestry is helping Republicans build a head of steam ahead of the November elections. On the increasingly indefensible side of the political divide are those who evidently believe that a slapdash DNA test showing Warren has perhaps 1/1064th Indian blood “proves” she is a Native American. Believers […]

October 14, 2018 | Here’s a Trade That Could Have Paid You 20-to-1 Last Week

Last week’s avalanche on Wall Street provided some opportunities for Rick’s Picks subscribers to make easy profits, always with risk tightly under control. Although there was fear in the headlines, the 24/7 chat room was cool, calm and even jocular at times.  Click here to join in the fun for two free weeks. One reason some subscribers were feeling […]

October 11, 2018 | Kanye’s Defection a Major Coup for Trump

Trump’s wholehearted embrace of rapper Kanye West is one of the smartest political moves he has ever made. West is a hugely important defector from the leftist stronghold of showbiz. CNN, CNBC et al. are dissing him with all of the nastiness they can summon,  but only because they know how much influence he wields over tens […]

October 9, 2018 | What if Trump Brings North Korea Around?

Trump says behind-the-scenes efforts to entice North Korea into the community of nations have shown slow but steady progress. He allows that his personal relationship with Kim Jong Un has warmed, and that with the right incentives the dictator could conceivably come around.  This would be a tremendous coup for the President — an accomplishment […]

October 7, 2018 | Is the Economy Looking Just a Little Too Rosy?

Before Saturday’s confirmation vote, I’d raised concerns here that a rejection of Kavanaugh might unsettle the nation politically and economically, ultimately reversing Trump’s undeniably positive effect on the economy and the stock market. With Kavanaugh confirmed, perhaps it’s time to flip the argument around with the observation that things looks just a little too rosy […]

October 4, 2018 | Bears Still the Best Friend Bulls Have Got

With the Dow down 357 points late in the session, bears couldn’t finish the job.  Unwilling to trust their good fortune, they scrambled to cover short positions in the final two hours, helping DaBoyz recoup more than 40% of the ground they’d lost earlier in the day. This was the second straight day of weakness, […]

October 3, 2018 | Rising Yields Darken the Economic Picture

Yields on Treasury debt took a big leap on Wednesday toward some longstanding targets (see TYX and TNX touts below), adding yet another dark cloud to the Fed’s preternaturally sunny picture. The central bank’s narrative is that the economy is strong enough to weather more rate hikes, but the banksters seem not to realize that […]

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