- the source for market opinions


July 21, 2019 | Investors Blinded by Greed, but Not for Much Longer

Traders dumped stocks in the final hour on Friday, hinting that there actually is a threshold at which bad news begins to matter. For one, Black Rock, arguably the smartest money on the planet, reported a 7% drop in profits. If they can’t cut it, is there any hope for the rest of us?  In […]

July 16, 2019 | Facebook’s Version of ‘How to Serve Man’

Facebook gets deservedly bad press, and yet the stock is rapidly approaching record highs. The latest headline suggests the company’s planned foray into cryptocurrencies will be stillborn. Trump’s administration has cited national security concerns, but the real story is that no one trusts Zuckerberg any longer. Every time he gets caught violating users’ privacy in […]

July 15, 2019 | China in Worse Shape than Reports Suggest

[The following was contributed by Farmer, a subscriber from Nairobi who is active in the Rick’s Picks chat room.] Of all the lies we read reported without question by the news media, one of the most egregious is that China’s GDP is still running hot at over 6% annually. It’s an astonishing number for such a large economy […]

July 14, 2019 | The U.S. Is Not an Economic Island

By signaling a move toward easing, Powell has made ready to cushion the U.S. against an economic slowdown that has been gathering force around the world. Although it is never wise to fight the Fed, we should be very guarded this time, scanning the horizon for signs of monetary-policy fissures. They are not likely to […]

July 11, 2019 | Party On, Wall Street!

The Dow closed above 27,000 for the first time on Thursday, giddy over the Fed chairman’s recent embrace of more easing.  In two days of testimony before Congress, Powell left little doubt that the central bank is about to lower interest rates by 25-50 basis points. However, only a moron could believe this will mitigate […]

July 10, 2019 | Fed Chief Straps on the Knee Pads

Fed Chief Powell supposedly has strong support inside Congress to fend off Trump’s calls for lower interest rates. How do we know this? Well, there was this headline atop the lead story in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal: ‘Powell’s Support Inside Congress Is Deep’. And here was the sub-hed, in case you missed the point: ‘Lawmakers on […]

June 30, 2019 | Wall Street All Revved Up for a Lousy Trade Deal

Trump may not get much of a trade deal from China, but you can count on Wall Street to milk a lousy deal for all it’s worth. His concession to Huawei in order to get talks started again was a major comedown for the U.S. It will doubtless please the Wall Street Journal and their ilk that […]

June 27, 2019 | Stocks Seem Invincible, Don’t They?

It’s days like Thursday that make the stock market feel so invincible. Although even a super-sensitive lab instrument could not have detected a mote of buying enthusiasm, stocks nevertheless were able to tread water all day and close essentially unchanged. They seem capable of vamping indefinitely while waiting for some ‘news’ to trigger a short-covering […]

June 26, 2019 | Bitcoin Is Just a Game, but Real Estate Speculation Is a Looming Disaster

They don’t ring a bell at the top, as the old saying goes. Still, if you’re looking for scary signs of excess in the stock market, you couldn’t find better evidence of it than bitcoin’s psychotic rally. I’ve projected a move to at least 21,032 (see tout below), a 66% gain from current levels, but […]

June 23, 2019 | Be Ready for a Turn in the Dollar!

The Dollar Index looks primed for a turnaround for technical reasons noted in my latest $DXY tout. To summarize, we will be using two compelling benchmarks to tell us more:  a Hidden Pivot support just below current levels and a key bottom made in March. If a reversal is coming it would hold bearish implications […]

June 21, 2019 | Gold at a Key Threshold

Comex Gold is sharply on the move tonight, approaching a key rally resistance. The August contract has slightly exceeded a longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 1412.20, but corresponding targets in some popular bullion vehicles, including GDX, have yet to be reached. If this occurs on Friday’s opening bar, you should be wary of a bull […]

June 20, 2019 | Will Facebook’s Latest ‘Big Idea’ Fly?

With two billion users, Facebook will be sorely challenged to hold onto them as the company tries to re-invent itself. The social media giant has been scrambling to find a new motherlode of revenues to insure against the day when privacy zealots will rightfully bludgeon them into submission. Perhaps even more threatening is the hardly […]

June 18, 2019 | 43-Man Squamish Is the Fed’s Game

One of the ironies of Wall Street’s obsession with the Fed’s crackpot policies is that fevered short-squeeze rallies such as the one launched on June 4 weaken the rationale for monetary easing.  Stocks went bonkers after the central bank started dropping hints that economic fallout from the tariff war might warrant a fresh infusion of […]

June 17, 2019 | Stocks Go Comatose Ahead of ‘Big’ News from Fed

If things weren’t slow enough already on Wall Street due to summer doldrums before summer has even begun, the announcement coming Wednesday from the Fed has made stocks go comatose ahead of the “news”. Expect Monday’s dirge to continue until the Big Event at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Powell & Co. have been in such a […]

June 16, 2019 | Smelling a Fiscal Blowout, Gold Starts to Warm

There was good news for gold bugs last week in The Wall Street Journal, even if it threatens a day of reckoning for everyone. Although Friday’s front-page story had nothing to do with bullion, the headline tells us why sunnier days are likely for anyone invested in precious metals over the next few years: Washington Puts Aside […]

June 13, 2019 | Buy That Billowing Mushroom Cloud!

Some of Wall Street’s smelliest garbage got airborne Thursday, caught in a short squeeze that could finish out the week. The shares of Lyft and Uber in particular, two companies that are good bets to remain profitless indefinitely, wafted skyward as though launched from a trebuchet. The medieval weapon is capable of hurling an automobile the length […]

June 12, 2019 | How the Stock Market Actually Works

Here is the best explanation I’ve seen to date of how the U.S. stock market works.  It is from John Jay, who posts regularly in the Rick’s Picks Forum: “The stock market is the primary bag-man the Federal Reserve uses to transfer the U.S. Dollars they create from thin air to the .01%.” Just so. When you […]

June 11, 2019 | Buy-the-Dips Revelers Could Romp for a Few More Years

Although there are a dozen good reasons why the bull market should flame out, like, tomorrow, there’s nothing in the long-term charts to suggest this is likely. A friend and fellow permabear sent me an Elliott Wave theorist’s prediction that the sensational run-up begun more than ten years ago could continue for another three or […]

June 10, 2019 | Rally Hasn’t Quashed ‘Fear Indicator’

Although the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials have been in explosive rallies for the last five days, traders appear skeptical, if not to say skittish. As the take-no-prisoners short squeeze has unfolded, a widely watched ‘fear indicator’ has refused to give ground; this, despite a 700-point burst in the Dow Industrials and a corresponding […]

June 9, 2019 | Why You Should Pounce on 2.57% Yields

Stocks took another bold leap Friday, heedless of payroll data that suggest U.S. employers pulled back on hiring in May across all sectors of the economy. Their clear concern is a global slowdown in China and Europe that appears to be deepening. Copper and crude oil quotes have signaled this as well with a 12% […]

June 6, 2019 | ‘Free Lunch’ to the Rescue!

Trump needn’t have wheedled the Fed about juicing the money supply, since the banksters, ever eager to ride to the rescue — of themselves — would have done it anyway. The alchemists at the central bank have once again begun to “manage” our “expectations” with all the subtlety of a carnival barker about to spin […]

June 5, 2019 | Sure, the Rally Stinks, but…

Although oil prices and Treasury yields have been falling an anticipation of a widely advertised economic slowdown in Europe and China, U.S. stocks are rising as though boom times lie ahead. What is going on?? It would appear that bulls simply cannot control themselves when there is talk of Fed easing. The prospect of QE3 […]

June 4, 2019 | Almost a Heckuva a Short Squeeze

Every dog has its day, and Tuesday’s vicious short squeeze was a pooch-lover’s delight. DaBoyz even managed to goose Tesla for a 9% gain. Although that won’t be nearly enough to reverse the death spiral in the automaker’s shares, it will suffice to spook traders who have been shorting the stock with impunity for the […]

May 30, 2019 | Oh-So-Subtle Fed Shifts into Second Gear

Thursday’s price action was as slow as we’ve seen in a while. This is curious, since there was news out intraday that the Fed “might” “consider” easing if economic conditions deteriorate. My hunch is that we’ll see a delayed-reaction rally on Friday, DaBoyz evidently having been unwilling to waste the news on a day when […]

May 29, 2019 | An IPO Wet Blanket Shrouds Wall Street

Although I usually let charts tell me where stocks are headed next, the current technical runes are a tad sunnier than I at the moment. This is notwithstanding recent weakness that has caused new record highs that were within spitting distance just a few weeks ago to recede. A 3095 target that lay just 4.5% […]

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