- the source for market opinions


September 23, 2018 | What’s the Deal with AMZN and AAPL?

My two top bull market bellwethers, AAPL and AMZN, turned lower last week without having achieved their respective Hidden Pivot rally targets. (See the related ‘touts’ below for technical details.) The targets were moderately important ones based on bullish patterns begun more than a month ago. Although the targets remain viable, the corrective moves are […]

September 20, 2018 | Buying Spree Is Crushing Volatility

Volatility has taken a pounding this week and looks poised to head even lower. That implies that the nearly relentless rally of the broad averages is likely to continue at least for a little while before buyers take a breather. The good news, if you believe stocks need a reality check now and then, is […]

September 19, 2018 | Investors Fiddle as the Nation Burns

The stock market proved once again that it is not so much cool, calm and collected as it is, out of its frigging mind, tacking on yet more price gains in the face of mounting crises on two fronts. The tariff war with China has escalated to the point where its effects have surpassed those […]

September 18, 2018 | An Extremely Delicate Moment for America

It is an extemely delicate moment for America as it tries to reckon with the scary excesses of feminism’s #MeToo phase coupled with the growing political hatred between red- and blue-state voters. Half the country is at war with the other, and it seems increasingly likely the battle is going to turn bloody at some […]

September 16, 2018 | Autumn’s Here, and Stocks Are Priced for Perfection

So much for summer doldrums. The broad averages have tacked on nearly 10 percent since June, with no hint that the torrid pace will cool with the official start of autumn later in the week. But isn’t that always the case before a new market paradigm surfaces, often with the subtlety of electroshock therapy?  Indeed, […]

September 14, 2018 | Friday Deceptions

A mixed opening this morning seems to be struggling for loft. Although Friday ‘jackpot’ bets have found little success in the first hour, put options could turn out to be late bloomers.  Out-of-the-money calls in VXX are a good way to straddle the bet, especially because this vehicle has bounced today from a moderately attractive […]

September 12, 2018 | Eerie Calm Before the Storm

With a potentially devastating hurricane bearing down on the Carolinas, it is eerie to watch a newsman do his evening report from the beach in Wilmington, NC. Winds are at about 8 knots and the ocean is calm, providing no evidence whatsoever of the tempest that has been predicted for the coastal Southeast. It’s tempting […]

September 11, 2018 | DaBoyz Are Solidly in Command of Two Key Stocks

When two key stocks, AAPL and AMZN, topped last week at important Hidden Pivot resistances, I put out the yellow flag. However, the stocks’ canny sponsors were in such complete command on Tuesday that there can be little doubt that they aim to take them both to new record highs shortly. The stocks opened on […]

September 9, 2018 | Did AAPL, AMZN Top Last Week?

As the new week  begins I have no strong bias, although I’ll be watching closely to see whether the tops traced out by two crucial bellwethers, AAPL and AMZN, have signaled an important turn in the broad averages.  Both stocks peaked very near major Hidden Pivot rally targets I’d proffered earlier. If the already significant […]

September 6, 2018 | Senator Cory Booker’s ‘Ashlee Simpson Moment’

The Kavanaugh hearings were a good bet to dominate the news this week, but they were overshadowed on Thursday by the death of Burt Reynolds. Recalling the highlights of Reynolds’ illustrious career — Deliverance was my all-time favorite — sure beat suffering through a day of shameless self-promoting on Capitol Hill by Cory Booker, a New Jersey […]

September 5, 2018 | The Cockroach Effect

The broad averages treaded water on Wednesday while Amazon suffered a rare drubbing and some other high-fliers got marked down, probably not for long. If there were any doubts about how tightly DaBoyz have rigged the game, they should have been dispelled by the sight of money flowing out of the half-dozen institutional favorites and […]

September 4, 2018 | AAPL, AMZN Keep Market Selloff at Bay

AMZN and AAPL kept the broad averages from plummeting Tuesday and look likely to lend further buoyancy to the markets for at least a couple more days. The latter, with the highest capitalization of any publicly traded stock, rose 0.82 to close at 228.45.  This surpassed a middling Hidden Pivot rally target we’d been using […]

September 3, 2018 | Kavanaugh Hearings Promise an Entertaining Week

Confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s choice to replace Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court, promise a week rich in partisan theatrics on Capitol Hill. By any measure, Kavanaugh has enjoyed a very distinguished career in law, including getting hired in 2008 as a visiting professor at Harvard Law School by none other than […]

August 30, 2018 | Tough Love for Bullion Bulls

My latest gold tout amounts to tough love for bullion bulls, since there’s no point wallowing in disappointment when the technical picture is as yucky as it is now. Subscribers know that I can turn on a dime if changing conditions warrant it, but I’ve set the bar higher and higher to avoid getting sucked […]

August 29, 2018 | Consumers, Like Investors, Are Giddy with Confidence

With the stock market near record highs, consumer confidence leaped in August to its highest level since 2000. Arguably, Americans haven’t been this giddy since August 1929, when shares peaked ahead of the 1929 crash.  What could possibly go wrong? Shoppers in particular have been feeling so exuberant that they’ve been doing some of their […]

August 28, 2018 | When China Yields to Trump, Stocks Will REALLY Soar

The Dow’s 259-point rally Monday on good Nafta news was just chicken scratch compared to what will happen if China comes around on tariffs. It’s not a done deal, to be sure, but things are not nearly so hopeless as the mainstream media would have us believe. China has stacked the deck heavily in its […]

August 27, 2018 | When China Yields to Trump, Stocks Will REALLY Soar

The Dow’s 259-point rally Monday on good Nafta news was just chicken scratch compared to what will happen if China comes around on tariffs. It’s not a done deal, to be sure, but things are not nearly so hopeless as the mainstream media would have us believe. China has stacked the deck heavily in its […]

August 26, 2018 | A Burst of Exuberance Is Coming

My latest update for the E-Mini S&Ps calls for a move shortly to new all-time highs, with a corresponding 800-point rally in the Dow Industrials that would fall just shy of a record. This burst of exuberance may seem all but inevitable now, but there were reasons to doubt that it would occur when a […]

August 22, 2018 | Bulls Haven’t Imagined Trump on His Heels

In yesterday’s commentary I underestimated the threat posed by the conviction of two close former associates of Trump. With Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort going down in flames on the same day, it looked like a wet dream-scenario for the tens of millions of Americans who not only wish Trump ill, but who have been […]

August 21, 2018 | Shysters Pull a Fast One in After-Hours Trading

Index futures have plunged in after-hours trading, presumably on news that Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, has been convicted of fraud. Does Wall Street actually care about this?  Not one bit. So why are stocks falling?  Simply because the traders who ‘work’ the news each night think it will trigger widows and pensioners into […]

August 20, 2018 | Buyers Chicken Out at a Crucial Threshold

Buyers fell 11 points shy of surpassing late February’s key recovery high, an achievement that would have generated an impressive ‘impulse leg’ on the daily chart. The earlier peak lay at 25,800 versus Monday’s intraday high at 25790. My hunch is that they will get past it on Tuesday, or at least within the week. […]

August 19, 2018 | Stock Market Has Found a New Reason to Rally MUCH Higher

When the Dow Industrials rallied 400 point last Thursday, I wrote here that it must be predicting a settlement of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.  I went on to forecast that the prospect of improved trade relations would send the blue chip average significantly higher, into the range 27k-28k, implying a rally […]

August 16, 2018 | Market’s Surge Seems to Be Predicting a Tariff Deal with China

AAPL, the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, came within 50 cents of the 214.30 target I’d drum-rolled here a couple of weeks ago, when the stock was $15 lower. Ordinarily, I’d suggest shorting it at current levels, especially to subscribers who made some bucks enroute to the target. But on second look, I’m convinced […]

August 15, 2018 | Bullion’s Harsh Realities

With the devastation in gold and silver picking up pace, I’ve updated my touts below to reflect, not wishful thinking and the fervent hopes of bullion investors, but the harsh realities of disinterested technical analysis. Some in the Rick’s Picks chat room seem to think bulls have suffered enough pain already for precious-metal quotes to go much […]

August 14, 2018 | Shades of Irving Fisher

Here’s a Bloomberg headline that should scare the hell out of permabulls: ‘World-Beating U.S. Stocks Show No Sign of Falling Back to the Pack’.  It’s the ‘Show No Sign’ part of this attention-grabber that seems fraught with hubris — so much so that we shouldn’t be surprised if the stock market were to begin imploding […]

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