- the source for market opinions


September 11, 2019 | Bear-Powered Perversity

Elsewhere on the page, I’ve given my reasons for buying bullion and put options less aggressively than I’d intended just a few days ago. Apple shares popped in a big way Wednesday, and that’s what changed my mind. The stock market sometimes rallies at peculiar times, and this is one of them. September is historically […]

September 10, 2019 | Whistling Past the Autumn Equinox

Flipping through The Wall Street Journal‘s business section Tuesday got me fired up about buying some cheap puts — perhaps even straddling them with a long position in gold. Talk about depressing! Moody’s cut Ford Motor’s bond rating to junk status; 48 states are going after Google for antitrust violations; steel manufacturers are getting hammered by, […]

September 9, 2019 | Beware of ‘Falling Piano’ in Gold

It’s been a while since gold took out any important lows on the hourly chart, but the Comex December contract was close to doing so late Monday night. This has caused the daily chart to become fairly oversold, although that doesn’t necessarily mean the futures are about to reverse and trampoline higher. Rather than try […]

September 8, 2019 | A WeWork Flop Could De-Fang the FAANGs

Ordinarily, the growing stench from WeWork’s impending IPO would be enough to unnerve Wall Street. Instead, DaBoyz have pushed the Dow to within 2.4% of record highs. This dubious achievement is particularly impressive because China and Europe are sinking into recession, and because the Fed’s desperation is starting to show. The Masters of the Universe […]

September 5, 2019 | Is Dow ‘Magnetic Effect’ About to Kick In?

DaBoyz have gotten quite a bit of mileage out of a planned meeting in October between trade representatives from the U.S. and China. There are times when the same news would have laid an egg, but this manifestly is not one of them. Cyclical forces are at work, fueling a short squeeze whose bullish impact […]

September 4, 2019 | The Tariff-War Gift That Keeps on Giving

DaBoyz have goosed index futures Wednesday night on ginned-up news about trade talks resuming again in October. Raise your hand if you were unaware that the talks had stopped in the first place. Regardless, renewed ‘optimism’ about the outcome of the tariff war has once again sent shorts scrambling for cover. It has also reversed […]

September 1, 2019 | Bipolar Stock Market Obsessed with Trade Tweets

DaBoyz milked the impending trade deal for all it was worth last week, squeezing shorts relentlessly until they evidently exhausted themselves on Friday before dawn. I can’t recall a more enticing instance of ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’. The trouble is, both rumor and news have exhibited manic bipolarity on a weekly basis, to […]

August 27, 2019 | Time for Fearlessness, You Gold Bugs!

A subscriber who follows gold closely was having second thoughts in the Rick’s Picks trading room Tuesday about bullion’s rally. “Some of the experts say gold hit a high and is going to plummet by Labor Day,” she noted.  “You know better,” I replied, “than to let what ‘some of the experts say’ affect your thinking. None […]

August 20, 2019 | Liz Warren and the Election Cycle

  Trump is pulling out all of the stops to keep the economy humming as campaign season draws closer. On Tuesday he let Wall Street know he’s considering capital gains cuts and other pro-business changes in the tax code to help fortify the U.S.  economy against mounting recessions in Europe and China. His plan to […]

August 19, 2019 | A Challenge to Get Short, No?

The selloff from late July’s record peaks seems likely to resume once the last short has been exhausted by wild, daily price swings.  Any rally attempt feels doomed, if only because it has been so challenging to get short lately. Whether the broad averages will need to pop to new record highs or merely poke […]

August 18, 2019 | Any Rally Attempt Seems Doomed

The selloff from late July’s record peaks seems likely to resume once the last short has been exhausted by wild, daily price swings.  Any rally attempt feels doomed, if only because it has been so challenging to get short lately. Whether the broad averages will need to pop to new record highs or merely poke […]

August 15, 2019 | The Art of the Deal, One Shovelful at a Time

“China really wants to make a deal,” says President Trump, “but I’m not there yet.”  Ya gotta hand it to the guy, he can pile up manure until it smothers the opposition. Nothing about Xi Jinping says he’s eager to meet Trump’s terms on trade, not any more than Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un is eager […]

August 14, 2019 | Brace for Armageddon with the Big Trouble Index (BTI)

Earlier this week, Rick’s Picks created a ‘Big Trouble Index’ (BTI) to track a bearish bet that looks like it can’t lose. I was having trouble getting to sleep, concerned that Hong Kong would be invaded and erupt in flames overnight, sending stocks around the world into a catastrophic plunge. I still believe this is possible, but […]

August 13, 2019 | Get a Step Ahead of Trump and You Could Make $$$ Billions!

A trader who knew what Trump was going to say next about tariffs could make more money in a few months than Trump himself is worth. Do the math if you don’t believe it. When China devalued the yuan on August 5, Trump fired back with a threat to broaden tariffs to cover virtually all […]

August 12, 2019 | Pressure Mounts for China to Give In

We could know soon whether Trump’s trade war against China has been worth it. Beijing has increasingly good reason to give way, since there are signs that the Chinese economy is starting to implode. GDP was recently reported at 6.2%, the slowest pace since 1992, and consumers have been hit hard by the devaluation of […]

August 11, 2019 | Simple Advice to Avoid Getting Shot by a Madman

If you watched the news last week, it was impossible to avoid getting a loud earful about mass shootings and gun-control. President Trump, as we might have expected, got blamed by liberals for everything but pulling the trigger. As this accusation grew increasingly shrill, verging on deranged, probably half of America tuned out the discussion. […]

August 8, 2019 | As Uber Nation Grows, Who Will Get Rich?

Uber shares are in the capable hands of world-class manipulators, judging from the way they powered the stock past a tidal wave of bad earnings news on Thursday. Calling these arse bandits “the smart money” doesn’t quite do them justice. If they were in another line of business — horse-racing, perhaps — what they accomplished […]

August 7, 2019 | Distrust the Bounce? Better Read This First

Much as I struggle to tune out the real world in order to trade solely on the instruction of my charts and proprietary technical indicators, the global picture both economically and politically seems far too grim right now for me to believe the broad averages are in the process of getting short-squeezed to new all-time […]

August 6, 2019 | Why VXX Is a Sucker Bet

The late John Scarne, one of the world great experts on gambling, once wrote a treatise explaining why you can’t win at three-card monte. That’s the game where a grifter lays three playing cards on a makeshift table, instructing you to follow the queen. He turns them face-down, flipping the queen over now and then […]

July 31, 2019 | The Fed Has Turned a Brat Into a Monster

Powell gives Wall Street a scoop of ice cream, and how does the spoiled little brat react? For starters, by setting the curtains on fire and peeing on the living room carpet. The Dow Industrials plummeted 480 points Wednesday after the Fed announced a 25-basis-point rate cut that had been universally expected. Some gratitude!  It’s […]

July 30, 2019 | For Apple Traders, All News Is Good News

Apple shares took an exuberant leap Tuesday evening, propelled by strong revenue growth announced after the close. DaBoyz were able to trigger off a short-squeeze because revenues increased with iPhone sales in a relative funk. This likely surprised many traders, since they had been hearing about iPhone’s slump in the U.S. and China for the […]

July 24, 2019 | Falling Home Prices Raise the Wall of Worry

Add to stock market bulls’ wall of worry a drop in West Coast home prices for the first time in seven years. This is part of a larger trend that saw U.S. home sales down 2.2% compared to a year ago. That’s the 16th straight month of annual sales declines, even as mortgage rates have […]

July 23, 2019 | Any Sellers Out There?

Stocks continue to move effortlessly higher, although there seems to be little enthusiasm driving the rally. Sellers appear to have abandoned the playing field, and who can blame them? The last time they caught a favorable breeze was in May, when the Dow actually finished significantly lower for two consecutive days on several occasions. Perhaps […]

July 22, 2019 | The Secret of Wall Street’s Genius Stock-Pickers

The geniuses who get paid to throw other people’s money at a small handful of stocks appear to have narrowed their task down to an irreducible minimum in 2019. Just four tech biggies — Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook — have accounted for fully 20% of the S&P 500’s total return so far this year, […]

July 21, 2019 | Investors Blinded by Greed, but Not for Much Longer

Traders dumped stocks in the final hour on Friday, hinting that there actually is a threshold at which bad news begins to matter. For one, Black Rock, arguably the smartest money on the planet, reported a 7% drop in profits. If they can’t cut it, is there any hope for the rest of us?  In […]

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