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September 23, 2020 | A Glossary of Pain

Wednesday’s quiet opening was a fooler that gave no hint of the ferocious selling that followed. The Dow and the S&Ps opened moderately higher, extending a two-day rally that traders obviously assumed would continue. Instead, the broad averages rolled over in the first hour on light selling that picked up tempo as the day wore […]

September 20, 2020 | Covid-19, Unmasked

There was not a mask in sight Saturday afternoon on the Ocean City NJ boardwalk even though it was packed with strollers, including your editor. Although it’s not possible to tell from the picture which are political liberals and which are conservatives, it’s probably safe to say that voters of both persuasions were well represented […]

September 16, 2020 | Dollar Flexes Its Pinky, Stocks Fall

  As observed here earlier, nearly everything has begun moving in lockstep opposite the dollar. Today, the effect of a modest bullish upturn in the dollar was both precipitous and precise. A strong dollar is the worst nightmare not only of the thimble-riggers at the Federal Reserve, but of everyone who owes dollars. That includes […]

September 15, 2020 | Excruciating Pain for Bears Suggests a Top Is Nigh

  It was challenging to stay short on Tuesday that the broad averages must surely be at or near an important top. This is an instinctual observation rather than a technical one, but I’m inclined to trust gut feelings based on the evidence. The two charts above illustrate the point. Notice that DIA, an ETF […]

September 14, 2020 | How a Surefire Horse Lost by a Neck

[I wrote the following for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner two decades ago. I offer it as lighter fare in lieu of the usual rant about how the stock market is mentally ill, investors are besotted with greed, and the global financial system galloping toward ruinous deflation. RA] Talk about a sure thing! Here was the kind of […]

September 13, 2020 | How a Surefire Horse Lost by a Nec

  [I wrote the following for the Sunday San Francisco Examiner two decades ago. I offer it as lighter fare in lieu of the usual rant about how the stock market is mentally ill, investors are besotted with greed, and the global financial system galloping toward ruinous deflation. RA] Talk about a sure thing! Here was the kind […]

September 10, 2020 | Watch the Dollar Call the Fed’s Bluff

It’s obvious that the U.S. dollar is the only thing occupying investors’ symian brains at the moment, since stocks are moving in lock-step against it. Even gold and silver have been kow-towing, reacting to every dollar zig with a precisely measured zag. That’s why I recently shifted my technical focus from AAPL to the Dollar […]

September 7, 2020 | How Mr. Market Could Fool Us All, Big-Time

  AAPL topped last week within a hair of an important rally target at 135.98, prompting this headline atop last Thursday’s commentary: “Is This the Start of the Big One?” If so, it is long overdue. Valuations are worse, even, than at the height of dot-com mania, led by vertical spikes not only in AAPL, […]

September 4, 2020 | Is This the Start of the Big One?

If there is reason for bears to be hopeful that Thursday’s savage selling was the start of the Big One, it is AAPL’s dramatic trend failure from slightly above a 135.96 target on the long-term chart. Using the Hidden Pivot Method, that was the last rally target that could be extrapolated from the weekly chart. […]

September 2, 2020 | Reasons for Holiday Jitters

Seasonality will be heavily on bulls’ side ahead of Labor Day weekend, but stocks will be bucking powerful headwinds thereafter, since September is historically Wall Street’s worst month. This September will be particularly interesting if two fledgling trends gain momentum. Specifically, the dollar has turned up from a promising spot, and AAPL for a rare […]

September 1, 2020 | Something for bulls AND bears to root for….

An interesting day, Hidden Pivot-wise. AAPL topped 0.03% from a rally target I’d drum-rolled before the split, and the Dollar Index bounced sharply from within six cents of Hidden Pivot target that’s backstopped by a major trendline. Odds are against nailing the exact high in AAPL, which in dollar terms  is being driven by the […]

August 31, 2020 | Greater Fools Dive into AAPL Following Split

AAPL didn’t waste any time demonstrating why DaBoyz split it four-for-one, effective Monday morning. The stock was up a scandalously undeserved $6.18 at one point, or more than 5%, although the gain was not nearly as noticeable as it would have been prior to the split. The pre-split rise would have been $24.72, making it […]

August 30, 2020 | Quiet Strength

Index futures and bullion have opened moderately higher Sunday evening, suggesting DaBoyz are in no hurry to lighten up on inventory.  I’ll weigh in later this evening when there is more evidence to judge the mood of investors, but at the moment, they seem quietly confident. I have provided some ambitious rally targets in my […]

August 27, 2020 | Traders Freak Out Over…Well, We’re Not Actually Sure

Thursday’s psychotic price action showed what’s on the tiny, fevered brains of traders as they continue to drive the broad averages to ridiculous heights. Supposedly, the wack-jobs wanted Powell to say more than he did in his keynote address Thursday morning at the Jackson Hole conference.  Here’s the Fed chairman in his own words. Judge […]

August 25, 2020 | Gold, Silver Not So Easy to Bully Lately

Bullion bulls should be enjoying the show even though silver an gold futures have gone nowhere for the last couple of weeks. Comex Gold has been pounding on a midpoint Hidden Pivot support of intermediate degree almost daily, and although it has traded slightly beneath the support a couple of times, most of the action […]

August 24, 2020 | Why AAPL Is Such a Crowd-Pleaser

An obsessive focus on AAPL has paid off for us by taking the guesswork out of the stock market’s rally. As long as Apple shares are moving higher, so will the broad averages. And as long as we have price targets we are confident in, we can trade with an aggressively bullish bias no matter […]

August 23, 2020 | Why Surfing the Big Moves Is So Difficult

  The E-Mini S&Ps ended the week a millimeter shy of a well-advertised rally target at 3402.75, poised to achieve it when index futures start trading again Sunday evening. If we were so confident the target would be reached, why, you might ask, didn’t we simply buy a dozen contracts weeks ago and avert our […]

August 20, 2020 | AAPL Drags ‘Lunatic Stocks’ Higher, but Not the Dow

AAPL remains in thrall to madmen, mountebanks and keister bandits, although this crew could run out of room to manipulate the stock moonward very shortly. The Cupertino firm’s shares rose $10 on Thursday, settling at 472.83 and adding a total of $40 billion of ‘wealth’ to the net worth of Switzerland and, probably, every homeowner […]

August 19, 2020 | Everything Went the ‘Wrong’ Way

An interesting day, since nearly everything went the ‘wrong’ way: stocks, the Nasdaq 100 and even the lunatic sector were down while the dollar actually rose. Bullion got hit pretty hard, crude fell, and AAPL’s solid gains from earlier in the day were reversed. Could the foregoing herald a major tone change? It’s possible, although […]

August 18, 2020 | Ahhh, the Suspense…

The S&Ps flirted with new record highs for the sixth straight day, waiting for news that could conceivably be used to squeeze shorts for a few headline inches. Besides the presumptive structural resistance at the old highs, there’s an important Hidden Pivot obstacle that was first mentioned here in early June.  Together they represent layers […]

August 16, 2020 | Buffett Takes a Symbolic Step Away from the Dark Side

  Bullion fans were revved up after Friday’s close when they learned that Warren Buffett had taken a plunge in bullion, acquiring shares of Barrick Gold worth about $563 million. This is welcome news, but it is also small potatoes for Berkshire Hathaway. Recall that when the investment firm bought $9.7 billion worth of Dominion […]

August 13, 2020 | Why No One’s Breaking Out the Bubbly

Shhhh! Don’t look now, but the S&Ps have tiptoed up to their all-time highs, presumably to attempt a quarterback sneak on Friday that would mute the hubris when they cross the goal line. DaBoyz don’t want to jinx the rally or call attention to its surreal nature. After all, except for a handful of grotesquely […]

August 12, 2020 | For Switzerland, Owning Apple Shares Beats Churning Out Rolexes

I’d raised a yellow flag here yesterday, but bulls lurched back into gear so powerfully on Wednesday that virtually all rally targets currently outstanding seem likely to be achieved. AAPL, the leader of the pack, had begun to look a little tired, but in retrospect this was just a pose to lull bears into stepping […]

August 11, 2020 | AAPL Has Stalled in a Dangerous Place

Although I’m confident today’s vicious selloff in bullion, the worst in more than seven years, will prove to be merely corrective, I’m not so sure about the selling that has hit the institutionally blessed ‘lunatic’ stocks, AAPL in particular.  The iPhone seller recently achieved a valuation of nearly $2 trillion, putting it well above Aramco […]

August 9, 2020 | Beware of the Dollar’s Coming Revenge

I was prepared  to lead this week’s commentary with an emphatically bullish forecast for the dollar, which seems to have few friends these days. Alas, even though a major tone change is coming, it will be at least a few more weeks if not longer before this occurs, since the stock market looks as revved […]

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