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February 28, 2021 | Why Weimar-Style Inflation Is Nearly Impossible

The global credit-blowout has stoked fears of a money-printing catastrophe like the one that wrecked Germany’s economy a hundred years ago, planting the seeds of World War II.  However, even a cursory look at the Weimar hyperinflation of 1921-23 reveals why it is extremely unlikely to happen again, especially on a global scale.  It was […]

February 25, 2021 | Even with Bells Ringing, This Top Will Be Tough to Short

They don’t ring a bell at the top of bull markets, as the saying goes, but perhaps this time it will be different.  Indeed, everysentient guru and talking head who is not shilling for Wall Street is properly bearish, and even the chimpanzees who make their living rotating Other People’s Money into flavor-of-the-month investment themes […]

February 22, 2021 | Schumer’s Chance to Seem Useful

  [Dear readers, I am taking a desperately needed break from telling you why a stock market crash is long overdue, and why Biden & Friends are finally going to make it happen.  Full disclosure: I have not read a newspaper or watched the news since November. RA ] We’ve all grown so weary of spam callers […]

February 14, 2021 | Weighing the Risks of Vaccination

    Been vaccinated yet?  I haven’t, although I’m trying not to give friends the impression that I’m making some sort of political statement. That means not emailing them links to every vaccine horror story that surfaces, or to growing evidence that the vaccine may not be all that it’s cracked up to be.  That […]

February 7, 2021 | Tuning Out the News

  This is a perfect time to catch up on the best of television, since so many of us are watching more of it these days, particularly on Saturday nights. I’ve been assiduously avoiding  all news for the last month or so and am faintly aware of the impeachment proceedings and Biden’s energy pipeline kill-shot […]

January 31, 2021 | How Gamestop’s Nuttiness Will Change the Coming Bear Market

  The news media went all-in over the weekend trying to explain the significance of the Gamestop saga, but because few traders were asked about it, there was little in this torrent of analysis to enlighten. Most of the reporters, talking heads and pundits focused on the obvious, sensationalizing a story about how the little […]

January 24, 2021 | When ‘Money of the Mind’ Dies

  A little more than two decades ago, amidst the wild excesses of the dot-com boom, I wrote what turned out to be an epitaph for those heady times in the The San Francisco Examiner. It bore the headline Monsters from the Id Threaten the System, a metaphorical nightmare that I’ll explain shortly. Then as now, vast […]

January 20, 2021 | ‘Vaccine Hopes’ Must Now Face Reality

Those who write about such things have attributed virtually every stock-market rally since March 23 to ‘vaccine hopes’.  They have overworked and over-hyped this phrase with no sense of irony or awareness; for it is not so much ‘hope’ that has powered stocks to insane levels, but stimulus steroids pumped into a beast that was […]

January 17, 2021 | How Good/Bad a Hand Has Biden Been Dealt?

  Stocks have turned timid, although it remains to be seen whether the moderate selling that ended the week will gain momentum as Biden’s inauguration approaches.  Regardless, the smell of distribution is in the air, and it is not subtle.  As the tempo of it picks up, expect DaBoyz to work overtime trying to convince […]

January 10, 2021 | This Is No Time to Give Up on Gold

  With gold’s gratuitous, 4% plunge on Friday, bullion has once again affirmed its reputation as one of the nastiest, most frustrating assets an investor can own. Its chief enemy is a global network of shamans, thimble-riggers and feather merchants who make their living borrowing bullion from the central banks for practically nothing, then lending […]

January 7, 2021 | Why Copper’s Stall at $3.63 Is Ominous

  [Note: This essay ran earlier in the week but I am re-running it because Copper broke out today on the long-term chart, hitting a so-far high of $3.71. RA]  Copper prices are up 75% since cratering in March at $1.97 a pound. Since ‘doctor’ copper, with a supposed PhD. in economics, has a reputation […]

January 6, 2021 | Wall Street Didn’t Even Flinch

Interesting times, for sure, but apparently not quite interesting enough to dampen the ardor of wildly exuberant buyers on Wall Street.  With patriots storming the doors of the Capitol and a reported shooting inside the building, the Dow Industrials still managed to finish the day with an immoderate gain of 438 points. Do the institutional […]

January 3, 2021 | Why Copper’s Stall at $3.63 Is Ominous

Copper prices are up 75% since cratering in March at $1.97 a pound. Since ‘doctor’ copper, with a supposed PhD. in economics, has a reputation for accurately predicting growth trends, does this mean a global boom is at hand?  This seems most unlikely, given the vast expansion of public debt used to temporarily counteract the […]

January 1, 2021 | Happy New Year!

To all of my subscribers and readers, warm holiday greeting and best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous new year.  It begins with many troubling issues unresolved, most particularly the question of who will be the next U.S. president. Various vaccines promise to ease the pandemic, but possibly not in time to prevent many […]

December 29, 2020 | Seasonal Rally Nipping at Bears’ Heels

The broad averages have been lapping at some long-term rally targets this week, although not so voraciously that bears should dive for cover quite yet. A 304.07 target for DIA has been exceeded so far by 1.63 points; a 312.29 target in QQQ by 2.35 points; and 12,829 target in the E-Mini Nasdaq by 89 […]

December 28, 2020 | Bitcoin Rampage 2.0 Has Eclipsed the Earlier Mania

  With the post-Christmas resumption of trading Sunday morning, bitcoin tacked on an insane $3,000 in the blink of an eye. Even more preposterous is that a correction one might have expected to last for at least three to five days appears to have run its course in mere hours. This has raised the prospect […]

December 20, 2020 | Want to Live Longer? Move to a Red State

Statistical and anecdotal evidence suggest that if you are elderly and want to survive Covid-19, you should move to a red state.  Here in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis has imposed few restrictions, and yet somehow we are not dropping dead like flies. The state in fact is well down the list of places where the […]

December 16, 2020 | Do You Smell a Top, or Just Kona Gold?

I’d be lying if I told you I smell a top. That would be like noticing a fart in a coffee roasting plant. With exuberant expectations of stimulus until kingdom come, the aroma of Kona dark is all that investors detect when they sniff the air for the scent of trouble. After all, what could […]

December 13, 2020 | This Time the Shoeshine Boy Is a Player

Here was a reassuring headline last week from Forbes online:  Airbnb’s Higher Valuation Is Reasonable.  What a relief! We can always count on the financial news media to provide a list of reasons why a stock is not overvalued no matter what its price. The trouble is, the story appeared before ABNB went public last Thursday. The IPO had been […]

December 11, 2020 | Why Trump Will Win

After watching 50 hours of Giuliani hearings, here is my connect-the-dots summary: The plot to steal the election was brilliant, elegant and well-financed, probably by Soros. It required only a relative handful of precincts and mid-to-high-level planners to succeed – as few as 30 people in all, including foot soldiers. The fixers trained their efforts […]

December 9, 2020 | Are White-Hot Small Caps About to Cool?

  The yellow flag is out now that the obsessively owned Russell 2000 Index has topped 14 cents from a long-term Hidden Pivot target.  IWM, an ETF proxy for the small-cap-heavy Russell index, has rolled down from 192.81, slightly beneath a 192.95 Hidden Pivot resistance I’d drum-rolled in the Rick’s Picks chat room Wednesday morning and on Facebook and […]

December 6, 2020 | Can Yellen Make Daffodils Bloom in December?

Although no one can predict when the dam will break, plunging the economy into hard times to rival the 1930s, we can be quite certain that a day of reckoning is drawing near. Speculative mania across a wide swath of assets is at a millennial peak, stoked by out-of-control fiscal and monetary stimulus. To further […]

December 3, 2020 | Forensics Geeks Don’t Lie, nor Are They Crazy

You need only watch Giuliani’s hearings on election fraud for an hour or so to understand how the computer geeks could overturn Biden’s win. It’s like having a seat behind the scoreboard for Bobby Thomson’s “shot heard ’round the world.” Forget all the supposed right-wing-conspiracy stuff, including charges that Dominion, the voting-machine company, shares DNA […]

November 29, 2020 | ‘Fed Put’ Is Folly at Its Grandest

Even with Covid-19 fear-mongering ratcheted to-the-max, the stock market continues to defy gravity and common sense. A Dr. Andre Campbell warned over the weekend that “we could be facing an apocalypse by Christmas” due to the growing number of hospitalizations. Does he mean apocalypse in the Biblical sense, implying the final destruction of the world? […]

November 22, 2020 | Time to Sell the News

The stock market is under heavy distribution, and for good reason: Even if the vaccines we’ve been reading about lately are as effective as claimed, they will be too late to prevent tens of thousands of U.S. business from going under. Supposedly, vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are nearly 100% safe and 95% effective. This […]

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