- the source for market opinions


January 15, 2019 | How Long Can Netflix Keep Outbidding Disney?

The broad averages wafted higher Tuesday after being stuck in a holding pattern for more than a week. Although the ascent was gentle for most stocks, the hard-hit FAANGs caught fire, with NFLX leading the pack on a nearly 7% gain. The company announced an 18% rate increase in its most popular plan, which will […]

January 14, 2019 | Why a Deal with China Could Land with a Thud

Five straight days of tedium have sapped my enthusiasm for telling you that something worthy of a headline is about to happen on Wall Street. However, the latest update for AMZN (see below) implies that if DaBoyz cannot levitate the stock within the next day or two, they’ll have to take it down by a […]

January 13, 2019 | That Heaviness Is Distribution

It felt like a mountain of supply sitting on stocks last week, growing more ponderous by the day. By Thursday the broad averages were too fatigued to achieve even minor ‘Hidden Pivot’ rally targets, the still-feisty FAANGs too subdued to help. Of course, just because the market looked punk on a given day does not […]

January 10, 2019 | A Ponzi Game Where Nearly Everyone Wins

I put out a commentary Sunday night bearing this tongue-in-cheek headline: “No Chance This Rally Is the Real Deal, Right?”  Of course, merely to pose the question is to suggest that it is at least possible the bull market still breathes.  Look, I’m as skeptical as you are, a died-in-the-wool permabear who thinks the Dow […]

January 8, 2019 | How AMZN Could Juice the Market

Could AMZN goad the broad averages toward new record highs without any help from AAPL? We may find out soon whether such manipulative ‘triage’ is possible if the stock pushes past the trendline shown in the chart. It comes in around 1730 and could be hit by week’s end if buyers maintain the steep trajectory […]

January 7, 2019 | Bear-Baiting

Restrained by AAPL’s leaden performance, the Dow eked out an unusually small gain Monday, rising by an unnewsworthy 98 points. Buyers aren’t necessarily spent, just timid about going for the gusto without leadership from the world’s most institutionally owned stock. They are certain to try again on Tuesday, especially with AAPL’s canny sponsors doing their […]

January 6, 2019 | No Chance This Rally Is the Real Deal, Right?

So why didn’t Friday’s short-covering panic produce another thousand-point blowout for the Dow? Buyers just didn’t seem to have it in them. Instead, Wall Street had to settle for a less-than-dazzling 747-pointer that could have impressed only Jim Cramer and a few other market cheerleaders who get paid to tout bear rallies like they were […]

January 3, 2019 | Why Apple’s Fall Spells Trouble for Everyone

Apple shares got sacked again Thursday, falling to a $142 low that is nearly 40% beneath the record $233 achieved a mere 90 days ago. What were Apple’s institutional sponsors thinking back then?  And why, as the stock began its wealth-vaporizing plunge, were the same giddy geniuses salivating over the prospect of adding massively to […]

January 2, 2019 | Too Much Bad News Could Be Good News

AAPL is getting hosed in after-hours trading on news that the company had lowered its sales estimate for Q1. The economic slowdown in China that has caused this is bound to persist and grow worse, but my gut feeling is that Apple shares have taken enough pounding lately to be ready to rally on bad […]

January 1, 2019 | Where Are Freaked Out Bears When You Need Them?

AMZN and AAPL were both looking pretty subdued as 2018 ended, implying DaBoyz are not feeling so gutsy even though tax selling is out of the way. Merely bullish buying will always take a back seat to short-covering as a source power behind the rallies, but it remains to be seen whether there will be […]

December 27, 2018 | Here’s Why the Other Shoe Has Yet to Drop

VXX, a trading vehicle that tracks short-term S&P volatility, turns out to be pretty good at predicting market disasters. The chart shown made it possible for me to foresee December’s avalanche, although not with the precision that the Hidden Pivot Method allows. Right now VXX is saying bulls shouldn’t get their hopes too high following […]

December 26, 2018 | Finally, a Dead-Cat Bounce Worthy of the Name

Finally, a bear rally worthy of the name! The Dow exploded for a record 1086 points on Wednesday, bouncing the proverbial dead cat nearly to the second floor. Adding a few more floors in the weeks ahead won’t bring kitty back to life, but it will probably suffice to restore some hubris and bravado to […]

December 23, 2018 | With Stocks Plunging, How Deep Is Hell?

“Nothing goes to hell in a straight line, not even stocks.” This time-tested piece of wisdom comes from Wolf Richter, editor of Wolf Street, by way of a headline on his blog. Richter is one of the more astute commentators on the financial scene, and his observation has obvious implications for a stock-market decline that is […]

December 20, 2018 | ‘Death Cross’ Says This Bear Has Only Just Begun

We’ll be hearing a lot more about the “death cross” in the days ahead, mostly from business-channel pundits who know as much about stock charts as you and I do about particle physics. The death cross occurs when a trading vehicle’s 50-day moving average falls beneath its 200-day moving average. This usually signals a big […]

December 19, 2018 | Fed’s Powell Inches Toward the Ledge

Fed monetary policy inched toward suicide Wednesday with a 25-basis-point rate hike and a feint toward bumping up interest rates two more times next year. Are they trying to make certain that Trump doesn’t get re-elected? This interpretation is sounding less farfetched each day as the banksters continue to flout a global economic storm that […]

December 18, 2018 | A Day of Reckoning for the Fed’s Alchemists Draws Nigh

I’m prone to remind readers from time to time that I don’t have a crystal ball. Although I hit forecasting bullseyes often enough, this feat is just a cheap parlor trick for anyone even a little bit familiar with the Hidden Pivot Method. Under the circumstances, I probably shouldn’t be too disappointed when the crystal […]

December 16, 2018 | A Grim Forecast for the Euro — and the EU

With the uncertainties of Brexit weighing on Britain and the EU, their respective currencies have been taking a beating. The euro is in a long-term bear market that has seen a drop from $1.60 in 2008 to a low early last year of $1.03.  Over that time, sterling has fallen from a surreal peak of […]

December 13, 2018 | Deaf, Dumb and Blind, Wall Street Keeps Its Cool

The stock market kept its cool Thursday, demonstrating yet again that traders are deaf, dumb and blind to whatever is going on in the real world. The Dow rose moderately even though the headlines were a full shade darker than usual. Trump was threatening to punish GM for closing an auto plant in Ohio. (He […]

December 10, 2018 | AAPL’s Handlers Hellbent on Levitating the Stock

AAPL, our #1 stock-market bellwether, turned sharply higher from the ‘wrong’ place Monday, reversing off a 163.73 low that lay fully $3.50 above our target. This suggests bears still have some work do do, although, given the ferocity of yesterday’s short squeeze, they can be pardoned for not wanting to risk impalement just to look […]

December 6, 2018 | 700-Point Reversal a Hoax, but Don’t Get In Its Way!

The Dow Industrials reversed 700 points yesterday, turning a morning disaster into an afternoon wilding spree with the potential to end the week on a bullish note. The rally was purely technical, beginning as it did a millimeter beneath an important low recorded on November 23 that had served as a ‘structural’ support. As is […]

December 5, 2018 | What on Earth Was THAT Selloff About?

We’ll treat Santa rallies with caution, if not to say skepticism, as a result of Tuesday’s take-no-prisoners onslaught. Mainly, it’ll be a matter of keeping the word “DISTRIBUTION!!!” in mind whenever bulls seem emboldened. That goes for AAPL as well, my one-size-fits-all bellwether. The stock had switched on the charm Monday, all but shouting “Buy […]

December 3, 2018 | AAPL Locomotive Has Plenty of Steam Left

AAPL buyers are in hyperdrive, capable of dragging the broad averages higher not only in the days ahead, but quite possibly until New Year’s. The stock is bound most immediately for the 187.42 target shown (see inset), but any higher  would put an alternative target at 188.95 in play. These targets are useful for trading purposes, but also for […]

December 2, 2018 | Seldom Has the News Felt More Exhausting

The tempo of the news has grown increasingly frenetic lately, even to the point where a humdrum summit in Argentina for world leaders has taken on significance. Usually, the more high-powered the guest list at these affairs, the less likely they are to produce an outcome worthy of our attention. This time, however, the world […]

November 30, 2018 | Here’s a 20-to-1 Bet for Friday

We can debate whether the U.S. is winning the trade war with China, and even whether Trump understands how tariffs work (which apparently he does not). But if the President comes away from this weekend’s planned G20 dinner with President Xi Jinping smiling his orange smile and boasting of a deal, the Dow Industrials will […]

November 28, 2018 | Fed-Induced Short Squeeze Clinches December for Bulls

Wednesday’s monster rally was just the beginning of a surge that can end only when the last die-hard bear has thrown in the towel. Although the short-covering panic goosed stocks into the clouds, the wild-blue-yonder, blow-off phase lies just ahead. Hundreds of stocks, most crucially AAPL, lifted from the danger zone, shifting the herd’s tiny, […]

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