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May 21, 2024 | Saying No to Aging: My Own Story

  We all get older – but that doesn’t mean we can’t put up a hell of a fight before we go down.   As many of my Timing Letter readers know, staying healthy and fit – and slowing down the aging process – has always been my highest priority.   The interesting thing is that […]

April 26, 2024 | The Nice Part about Getting Old

    The nice part about getting old (I’ll be 77 in one week) is that you’ve experienced more than most people – and that includes real estate cycles. U.S. housing prices may be at record highs today – but as I continue to illustrate in my Timing Letters, a massive mean reversion is likely […]

March 31, 2024 | Good Time to Buy Gold? – Update

  On Oct 17, 2023, when gold was priced at $1,831/ounce, I posted THIS In early March 2024, gold broke out to a new record high – and was priced at $2,232 on March 29th. So far, so good.  

February 5, 2024 | Risk

                 Just because you can’t see something doesn’t mean it isn’t there.                  It pays to be paranoid.

December 29, 2023 | Here’s to Hitting Some Home Runs in 2024

  Friends and Followers – Work hard and dream big. I hope that 2024 is the best year ever for you – and that many of your hits are home runs.

December 10, 2023 | Haves vs. Have-Nots in America

                 The U.S. is a country of extremes.                   Americans are the richest people in the developed world – but are also the poorest and most likely to go hungry.                  Data shows that only 10% of all Americans are able to beat inflation, taxation, and changing market conditions over time.                  Learning […]

November 3, 2023 | There is No Free Lunch

  From a Ben Bernanke speech in 2011:   “Perhaps the most important thing for people to understand about the federal budget is that maintaining the status quo is not an option. Creditors will not lend to a government whose debt, relative to national income, is rising without limit; so, one way or the other, […]

October 17, 2023 | Good Time to Buy Gold?

               For those of you who are on the hunt for opportunities beyond real estate, consider this: Managed money is back to a largish net short position in gold. The only other times managed money bet like this, gold did the following: Rallied 30% Rallied 32% Rallied 26%

October 13, 2023 | We Just Hit a $ BILLION Per Hour

  U.S. National Debt is currently $33.5 TRILLION – and it’s rising by one BILLION dollars PER HOUR.   At the current pace, the US would add $1 trillion in Federal debt every 45 days.   U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – which represents the value of the goods and services produced in the United […]

October 1, 2023 | Chart of the Decade

    The monthly mortgage payment (P&I) for purchases of the median priced existing U.S. home (NAR) with a 20% down payment & average 30-year mortgage rate was $2,351 in August 2023 – up 140.6% since March 2020. The average hourly rate for all U.S. employees (BLS) has risen 21.7% since March 2020. Here in […]

September 21, 2023 | Update on Key Housing Indicator

            [The above chart was presented in my Sept 2023 Timing Letter, as was the following transcript:]   “Based on the 1-2-3 chart pattern shown in the chart, odds are high that more months’ supply of homes for sale is going to start hitting the market in the months (and maybe years) ahead.”   […]

September 14, 2023 | Oil Hits $90!

  Crude oil just hit $90/barrel –  a new high for 2023 Oil prices are now up a massive 35% in just 3 months. Inflation always starts with energy.  

August 31, 2023 | Good and Bad News

  Let’s start with the bad news. Being that housing prices are high and affordability is ridiculously low, the pic is pretty much accurate – especially in California. The good news? History tells us that market conditions like this are temporary and won’t last forever. Housing prices will fall (and become affordable again) at the […]

August 14, 2023 | Where Mortgage Rates are Going

    Since Jan 2023, mortgage rates show a chart pattern that is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.96% as of Aug 9th, 2023. Rates hit a 20-year high of 7.08% in Nov 2022. With the rate of inflation coming down, many real […]

August 4, 2023 | Food Inflation: 7.1% or 22.6% Per Year?

  If you want to know how much food has gone up in the last 12 months, don’t ask the US government – ask people who shop for food everyday. Based on a survey of 8,000 US grocery shoppers nationwide, they said food at home prices rose by an estimated 22.6% from April 2022 to […]

July 19, 2023 | Should I Buy? Or Should I Rent?

                 I spend a lot of time thinking about the future – and where home prices will go from here. 2023:  Rental affordability has never been higher as compared to mortgage affordability. From my July 2023 Timing Letter: “Many believe that home ownership is always attractive as a way of avoiding paying rent, but […]

June 20, 2023 | What You Get When You “Play Big

      Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open Golf Championship at the Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles, CA on Sunday, June 18, 2023.   Clark, 29, made his pro debut in 2017 and this win was his first major championship.   His Mom’s Words of Advice   “Play big” is what […]

June 1, 2023 | Dead Man Walking?

  [Taken from May 2023 Timing Letter] Is the U.S. economy a dead man walking? As illustrated in my May 2023 Timing Letter, U.S. money supply (M2) is falling at its fastest year-over-year rate since the 1930s, and is sending a highly negative signal for the economy, stocks, and real estate. Historically reliable recession indicators […]

May 23, 2023 | Commercial RE: Mean Reversion in Progress

    Of course we do not live in the future, but investors have to be prepared for it.  Commercial RE prices fell 37% during the last downturn as investor expectations became too high in Sept 2007. And as is usually the case, when overly optimistic expectations are met with the reality that prices don’t […]

April 24, 2023 | Capital Preservation First

 Capital preservation first, capital growth second.  The greedy and the impatient will get mauled in this bear market.  

March 27, 2023 | The Art of War/Investing

    The Art of War has a wider application than warfare. It also applies to successful investing: Victory tends to go to those Generals who know when to fight – and when not to fight. The wise General does not engage with the enemy until the odds of victory are high.  

March 7, 2023 | You Cannot Control the Wind

                   The pessimist complains about the wind.                  The optimist expects it to change.                   The realist adjusts the sails.

February 21, 2023 | Bear Market Strategy

    If this housing cycle plays out like the cycles of the past 50 years, this bear market is going to be brutal.  Cavaet emptor. Unless you can buy at a significant discount to fair market value, do not buy because of fear of missing out (FOMO). We will use trend and momentum analysis […]

February 2, 2023 | Inflation History Lesson

   “Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds rate exceeding the CPI” ~ Stan Druckenmiller The CPI was 6.5% in December 2022 — while the Fed Funds rate is currently 4.33% Coming in January 2023 To help lower CPI readings, the Bureau of Labor Services is changing […]

December 23, 2022 | Liquor, Ladies and Leverage

  A smart person knows that leverage comes with forward and reverse gears. Leverage works wonders when home prices are rising – but it can ruin you when prices are falling. I can give you research and signals, but it’s up to you to manage your own risk. Merry Christmas everybody!

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