- the source for market opinions


October 1, 2023 | Chart of the Decade

    The monthly mortgage payment (P&I) for purchases of the median priced existing U.S. home (NAR) with a 20% down payment & average 30-year mortgage rate was $2,351 in August 2023 – up 140.6% since March 2020. The average hourly rate for all U.S. employees (BLS) has risen 21.7% since March 2020. Here in […]

September 21, 2023 | Update on Key Housing Indicator

            [The above chart was presented in my Sept 2023 Timing Letter, as was the following transcript:]   “Based on the 1-2-3 chart pattern shown in the chart, odds are high that more months’ supply of homes for sale is going to start hitting the market in the months (and maybe years) ahead.”   […]

September 14, 2023 | Oil Hits $90!

  Crude oil just hit $90/barrel –  a new high for 2023 Oil prices are now up a massive 35% in just 3 months. Inflation always starts with energy.  

August 31, 2023 | Good and Bad News

  Let’s start with the bad news. Being that housing prices are high and affordability is ridiculously low, the pic is pretty much accurate – especially in California. The good news? History tells us that market conditions like this are temporary and won’t last forever. Housing prices will fall (and become affordable again) at the […]

August 14, 2023 | Where Mortgage Rates are Going

    Since Jan 2023, mortgage rates show a chart pattern that is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.96% as of Aug 9th, 2023. Rates hit a 20-year high of 7.08% in Nov 2022. With the rate of inflation coming down, many real […]

August 4, 2023 | Food Inflation: 7.1% or 22.6% Per Year?

  If you want to know how much food has gone up in the last 12 months, don’t ask the US government – ask people who shop for food everyday. Based on a survey of 8,000 US grocery shoppers nationwide, they said food at home prices rose by an estimated 22.6% from April 2022 to […]

July 19, 2023 | Should I Buy? Or Should I Rent?

                 I spend a lot of time thinking about the future – and where home prices will go from here. 2023:  Rental affordability has never been higher as compared to mortgage affordability. From my July 2023 Timing Letter: “Many believe that home ownership is always attractive as a way of avoiding paying rent, but […]

June 20, 2023 | What You Get When You “Play Big

      Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open Golf Championship at the Los Angeles Country Club in Los Angeles, CA on Sunday, June 18, 2023.   Clark, 29, made his pro debut in 2017 and this win was his first major championship.   His Mom’s Words of Advice   “Play big” is what […]

June 1, 2023 | Dead Man Walking?

  [Taken from May 2023 Timing Letter] Is the U.S. economy a dead man walking? As illustrated in my May 2023 Timing Letter, U.S. money supply (M2) is falling at its fastest year-over-year rate since the 1930s, and is sending a highly negative signal for the economy, stocks, and real estate. Historically reliable recession indicators […]

May 23, 2023 | Commercial RE: Mean Reversion in Progress

    Of course we do not live in the future, but investors have to be prepared for it.  Commercial RE prices fell 37% during the last downturn as investor expectations became too high in Sept 2007. And as is usually the case, when overly optimistic expectations are met with the reality that prices don’t […]

April 24, 2023 | Capital Preservation First

 Capital preservation first, capital growth second.  The greedy and the impatient will get mauled in this bear market.  

March 27, 2023 | The Art of War/Investing

    The Art of War has a wider application than warfare. It also applies to successful investing: Victory tends to go to those Generals who know when to fight – and when not to fight. The wise General does not engage with the enemy until the odds of victory are high.  

March 7, 2023 | You Cannot Control the Wind

                   The pessimist complains about the wind.                  The optimist expects it to change.                   The realist adjusts the sails.

February 21, 2023 | Bear Market Strategy

    If this housing cycle plays out like the cycles of the past 50 years, this bear market is going to be brutal.  Cavaet emptor. Unless you can buy at a significant discount to fair market value, do not buy because of fear of missing out (FOMO). We will use trend and momentum analysis […]

February 2, 2023 | Inflation History Lesson

   “Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds rate exceeding the CPI” ~ Stan Druckenmiller The CPI was 6.5% in December 2022 — while the Fed Funds rate is currently 4.33% Coming in January 2023 To help lower CPI readings, the Bureau of Labor Services is changing […]

December 23, 2022 | Liquor, Ladies and Leverage

  A smart person knows that leverage comes with forward and reverse gears. Leverage works wonders when home prices are rising – but it can ruin you when prices are falling. I can give you research and signals, but it’s up to you to manage your own risk. Merry Christmas everybody!

December 20, 2022 | A Tale of Two Housing Bubbles

Home equity increased from $5 trillion to $15 trillion during the previous housing bubble – a 200% increase. During the current housing bubble, home equity increased from $8 trillion to $32 trillion – a 300% increase. What makes a superior real estate investor? Have market timing skills and know when to hold winning positions as […]

December 14, 2022 | Teach a Man to Fish

  The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter provides research and signals but it also teaches you how to make highly profitable buy and sell decisions on your own. Here are important indicators to follow … hint, hint: Existing home sales New home building permits Notice of mortgage defaults Foreclosure sales Mortgage rates Teach a man […]

November 30, 2022 | The Battle for Investment Survival

“It takes five years to learn how to make money … and twenty-five to learn how not to lose it.”  – Nassim Taleb Whether a person realizes it or not, any body who earns more more than he spends is automatically an investor. The objective of investment is basically to store once’s excess purchasing power for future […]

October 31, 2022 | Say Hello to 7%

  30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages climbed above 7% in October – up from 3.18% 12 months earlier. This is the first time they have been above 7% since 2002. As my followers know, I used technical analysis to correctly forecast this rise in rates in my January 2022 Timing Letter. Furthermore, even though rates have more […]

October 29, 2022 | The First Rule of Money

  Investors over-estimate their tolerance for risk. It’s easy to feel like a genius in a bull market – but it’s only after you lose big money will you understand what it’s like to be on the wrong side of a market. It’s not just the financial loss you take – it’s the emotional toll […]

October 13, 2022 | San Francisco Exodus

Tens of thousands of people are fleeing San Francisco, due in large part to the city’s problems of increasing crime and homelessness, U.S. Census data and local polling shows. San Francisco County lost 6.7% of its population, or 58,764 residents between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021 – according to a March 2022 report […]

October 7, 2022 | Timing the Markets – Including Real Estate

  As many of my followers know, I use chart patterns and momentum to help make market timing decisions. To illustrate, look at the chart of the US Dollar Index that is featured above. As a result of the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation, the US Dollar Index has risen 15% in the last […]

September 29, 2022 | Is a Fed Pivot on the Way?

  With inflation at 9.9%, the Bank of England (BoE) had to step in (i.e. “pivot”) yesterday and announce that it would re-start Quantitative Easing in order to lower interest rates and save the British economy from collapse. This was an emergency move by the BoE because leveraged pension funds were getting margin calls on […]

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