- the source for market opinions


April 30, 2020 | Does the Housing Market Still Have Legs?

The coronavirus outbreak has sparked a tsunami of concern about what impact it will have on the U.S. economy and its housing markets. – and rightfully so. Recent surveys show that approximately half the service firms and over one third of manufacturers have already shut down – either partially or completely – and more firms […]

July 27, 2019 | Must See Charts on Falling Interest Rates!

What have I learned in the past year that genuinely surprised me? The Fed Funds futures market currently is pricing in a 73% chance of a Fed rate cut in July – and a 95.8% chance of two or more rate cuts in 2019.  This was illustrated in the July Timing Letter. Conventional wisdom is that Fed […]

October 25, 2018 | Housing Affordability Falls to a 10 Year Low

Rising mortgage rates and rising housing prices have pushed home affordability to the lowest levels we’ve seen in 10 years – both nationally and in California. For California, the California Association of Realtors (CAR) reported that housing affordability fell to 26% in Q2 2018 – a level also not seen since 2008. In response to […]

October 12, 2018 | San Francisco Housing Bubble – UPDATE!

[Excerpted from Sept 2108 Timing Letter] “The two best traits for a good investor,” says Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, “are to have a deep appreciation of history and a good understanding of psychology.” To prove it, look at the above chart. Now ask yourself this:  “How many times in history have you seen markets rise […]

July 22, 2018 | Must See Chart! Are We Nearing a Housing Market Peak?

[From July 15, 2018 Timing Letter] The chart below is from the Wall Street Journal (June 2018). With mortgage rates rising, can home prices keep rising at 7% if wages are only rising at half that rate? I’m pretty sure the answer is “no” however the variable is timing. “It takes five years to learn […]

April 18, 2018 | “Why You Should Question the Buy-And-Hold Strategy … In Both Stocks and Real Estate”

I recently came across this 12 year chart of the Vietnamese Stock Market – which showed how it took investors 11 years to get back to breakeven after the market’s 2007 peak.     The purpose of investment is to make capital grow and protect it from loss – as I’ve been focusing on in […]

February 17, 2018 | Look at Where the Puck is Going, Not Where It’s At

Throughout history, investors tend to make the same mistakes over and over again – and to their great detriment. I talked about this at my Feb 10, 2018 seminar.  One of their biggest mistakes deals with “forecasting,” where investors get out their ruler and start extrapolating trends of the  recent past into the future. Mortgage rates, for example, were in a downtrend for most of 2017. That seems […]

December 17, 2017 | “The Most Important Word in Real Estate” – Bruce Norris

My friend and fellow real estate analyst Bruce Norris spoke at the San Diego Creative Investors Association on December 12th – which I eagerly attended. “Stay Put or Cash Out of California Real Estate?” was the topic. For those of you who are not familiar with Mr. Norris, he has been an active (and very successful) real estate […]

October 31, 2017 | Would Higher Interest Rates Derail Today’s Housing Boom?

A key question for investors, including those who participate in real estate markets, is:   “Where are interest rates headed?” There is a great deal of speculation about who President Trump’s pick for the next Fed chair is going to be – and he recently confirmed that he is “close to deciding. ” At a Capitol […]

September 2, 2017 | The Next Big Play for Investors?

Over 400 of my Timing Letter followers have attended one of my “Coming Economic Storm” seminars that I started giving in March 2015 – and my next seminar will be held on October 14, 2017 at the La Jolla Marriott. Click here for details. To protect your wealth from a wide range of economic scenarios that include inflation, deflation, stagflation, […]

August 19, 2017 | Risks Are Rising

Lovers like to think that memories last a lifetime – but in dealing with market risk, that isn’t the case with property owners. They are optimistic when housing prices are highly elevated – and pessimistic when they are depressed.  However, if they were to remember past booms and busts – and learn from them – they would think (and […]

July 3, 2017 | The Risks of Being a Fearless Real Estate Investor

  During the late stages of a California housing boom, one of the things I’ve noticed that occurs over and over again is that real estate investors (and developers) tend to get complacent and over-pay for “deals.” As long as housing prices are still rising, very few know when to stop putting their money at risk and take their money […]

June 3, 2017 | Is there “Irrational Exuberance” in the U.S. Housing Market?

(Excepts from my May 2017 Timing Letter and the speech I gave at the FIBI real estate club in Pasadena, CA on May 18, 2017) Survey after survey has shown that investors are most bullish near housing market peaks … and most bearish near the bottoms. . Why is that? It’s because people tend to believe […]

April 22, 2017 | Why You Should Generally Ignore Real Estate Predictions

On April 13th, I gave a speech in Los Angeles on “Where California Housing Prices are Going in 2017 … and Why.” Early on in the presentation, I said “the trend is still up” for California housing prices — and then one-by-one, I went over the charts of each of my five key Vital Sign […]

March 25, 2017 | U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Spike Higher in Q4 2016 – Is This a Warning Sign?

[Taken from the March 2017 issue of The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter] After hitting 10-year lows in Q3 2016, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four residential properties increased in Q4 2016 to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.80% of all loans outstanding – up from […]

February 1, 2017 | Day One of the Trump Presidency: Trump Says “No” to Looser FHA Mortgage Financing

In an attempt to make it easier to get FHA mortgage loans approved, a 25-basis point reduction in that premium was announced by the out-going Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Julian Castro on January 9th – and was scheduled to go into effect on January 27th. Not any more. Only an hour after he […]

January 17, 2017 | What Will 2017 Bring to the U.S. Housing Markets?

It’s that time of the year again when predictions run rampant about what’s going to happen to the U.S. housing market in 2017 — but rarely do following these predictions turn out to be the best advice. Instead, I have always believed that the markets are the best indicator of the future. Why?  The reason […]

December 4, 2016 | Mortgage Rates Climb to 4.08% in December 2016 And Now Sit at a 12-Month High

As my Timing Letter subscribers know, I have been showing evidence and warning of a possible long-term trend reversal in interest rates (to the upside) since mid-2016. Recent developments in the 30-year mortgage market seem support that outlook,  as shown in the chart below.   According to the latest Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage […]

November 12, 2016 | Is The Market Signaling A Major Turn in Rates?

[Taken from the Nov 2016 issue of The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter] With U.S. interest rates at 200-year record lows, I presented evidence in the Sept 2016 issue of this Timing Letter as to why falling rates likely became a 3 statistical deviation event in early 2016 – i.e. a “bubble.”   Based on the […]

October 29, 2016 | Three Case-Shiller Cities That Are In the Bubble Zone

In my July 2016 Timing Letter, I showed how the Case-Shiller 20-City Index had been rising in a tight and relatively modest 5.4%-5.8% year-over-year price range since September 2015. This lack of increasing price acceleration and relatively modest price growth suggests that speculation in the broad U.S. housing market is not running rampant at this […]

October 13, 2016 | WARNING to all Investors! Trust What You See And Not What the Fed Chairman Is Telling You

“Asset values aren’t out of line with historical norms.” – Janet Yellen, 9/21/16 With U.S. housing, stock and bond prices sitting at or near their all-time record highs as of September 2016 — Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen was asking us to believe that asset values were not “out of line” with historical norms? Sorry Janet, […]

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