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September 30, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For September 30, 2023

August/September: Bond yields, USD and Crude oil sharply higher, stocks and gold down The yield on the long bond soared from ~3.9% on the mid-July Key Turn Date to ~4.8% (a 16-year high) on Thursday. Bond prices fell as yields rose. The US Dollar Index rallied ~7% from the mid-July KTD, rising for 11 consecutive weeks. This […]

September 30, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday 30th 2023

The Bottom Line North American equity markets continue to track their seasonal pattern that calls for weakness into the last week in September and the first week in October followed by start of the traditional fourth quarter rally. Lots of “noise” continues to negatively influence equity prices including the auto worker strike and a likely […]

September 30, 2023 | This Week in Money

September 30, 2023 | China’s Great Slowdown and Real Estate Crisis

Secular mean reversion in the world’s second-largest economy and largest consumer of global commodities has far-reaching implications for all of us. Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and CIO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations amid rising tensions, China’s economic woes and real estate crisis, and more. Here is a direct video […]

September 29, 2023 | Recession Watch: When Big Trends Collide

Let’s start with the US borrowers who can’t make their credit card payments: Is there a subprime credit card crisis on the horizon? (MarketWatch) – Subprime consumers are falling behind on their credit card bills. Borrowers with a VantageScore between 300 and 600 experienced an 8.9% delinquency rate — of 30 to 59 days — […]

September 29, 2023 | Extremely Low Rates Triggered a Mania Like the Tulip Bulb Story

History will judge that the long period of low interest rates, which endured from 2009 to early 2022 was a colossal mistake. Investors piled into fixed income assets that were extremely overpriced based on rates close to zero. And now most assets that are sensitive to rates are repricing sharply downward. Last week we saw […]

September 29, 2023 | Trudeau Removing Attorney Client Privilege For Taxes

Trudeau is Klas Schwab’s pet. He does as he is told. No world leader has sought to destroy the attorney-client privilege, but Trudeau is hunting money for taxes and removing the confidentiality between Canadians and their lawyers. What is next? Priests must report every sin to Trudeau they hear in confession. Trudeau is now passing […]

September 29, 2023 | What is a “Normal” Interest Rate?

Russia cutting fuel exports due to domestic shortages

September 29, 2023 | Canadian Recession “Earlier and Harder”

Unfortunately, a decade of loose money and misallocated capital has set Canada up for a period of hard return. David Rosenberg, President and Chief Economist & Strategist of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc., talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how Canada will get a recession ‘earlier and harder’. Here is a direct video link.     […]

September 28, 2023 | Did Gold Bars Just Become An Impulse Buy?

One of the tough things about buying gold is the complexity. You have to find a dealer and look up their prices, choose a coin or bar from dozens of options, call in the order, and wire a large amount of money to people you’ve never met. Then comes the stressful wait while your cash […]

September 28, 2023 | China’s Housing Bust Spreads

Shares in the Chinese property firm Evergrande have fallen as problems in the country’s struggling housing market deepen – affecting the wider economy. Its mainland unit Hengda Real Estate has defaulted on 4bn yuan (£449m; $547m) of debt, it revealed on Monday. The BBC’s Analysis Editor Ros Atkins examines the background to the current crisis. […]

September 28, 2023 | Rota Resigns – Scapegoat for Trudeau

Speaker for the House of Commons Anthony Rota has resigned after embarrassing Justin Trudeau and Canada as a whole. Rota invited Yaroslav Hunka, former 14th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS, to speak to the Canadian Parliament to impress Zelensky. The video of Zelensky and Trudeau giving this former Ukrainian Nazi a standing ovation is […]

September 28, 2023 | How to Protect Investments With Unpredictable US Government

Defensive stocks to check out.   Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

September 28, 2023 | The Odds of Another US Interest Rate Hike

The debate over the diminishing role of the US Dollar

September 28, 2023 | How Long Can Energy Stock Surge Last?

Could Gold Miners be ready for a market boost?

September 28, 2023 | OPEC’s Production Cuts Unsustainable

Uranium gaining because wind and solar power are flops

September 27, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, September Update: Spring Bounce Fades. 20-City Index -0.6% from Peak in 2022, Flat Year-over-Year

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, released today, for the 20 metros it covers ticked up 0.6% in July from June, the smallest month-to-month increase since February, continuing the trend of ever-smaller month-to-month increases following the powerful bounce in the spring, when three months in a row, the month-to-month jumps were 1.5% or higher. Compared […]

September 27, 2023 | EU Urged to Return Military-Aged Ukrainians Back For War

Behind the curtain, Zelensky has been quietly asking EU countries to send back men of military age who have fled Ukraine. Poland seems to be considering sending military-aged men back to Ukraine to die in this absurd war. Zelensky refuses to negotiate peace and has no problem sending Ukrainians to their death. All of this […]

September 27, 2023 | Financial Headwinds Intensify as Cash Dwindles and Debt Costs Leap

Trillions in emergency government handouts have been spent. Eighty percent of Americans now have less cash than when the Pandemic began. Only the wealthiest 20% of Americans still have some excess Pandemic savings, and that is expected to be fully consumed by the end of this month. All income groups have seen their balances decline in […]

September 26, 2023 | Real M2 Money Stock

The record y/y decline in M2 is just a correction within the rising trend.

September 26, 2023 | Wolf Richter On Why We Should Short The Homebuilder Stocks

Wolf Street’s Wolf Richter is doing a great job of dissecting the real estate market. Definitely consider supporting his efforts. His latest post is particularly on point for us since our portfolio contains short positions in three big homebuilders. Here’s an excerpt featuring some charts that illustrate the industry’s (apparently insoluble) problem: Prices of New Houses Drop, Sales […]

September 26, 2023 | Jeremy Grantham “Bubble Historian”

The below podcast with Grantham is nearly two hours long and broad in scope. Worth the time, IMHO. For those with less patience, you can read some key takeaways in 10 quotes from the interview. Also, this 2-minute TikTok reel offers a taste. @downtownjbrown Is This a Real Estate Bubble? @The Compound THe Compound and Friends […]

September 25, 2023 | Zelensky and Trudeau Give Nazi Standing Ovation

Is the propaganda working yet? Do you believe the West is really the good guy here? Ukraine and Russia continually point the finger and accuse the other of supporting Nazis. Well, jet-setting Zelensky recently visited Canada’s Parliament where they invited a literal former Nazi from World War II to speak. Yaroslav Hunka, former 14th Waffen […]

September 25, 2023 | McGill Housing Study: “Staggering Impact of Short Term Rentals”

Greater restrictions around short-term rental properties seems inevitable. A McGill University professor has found some eyebrow-raising numbers regarding short-term rentals in B.C. …“The report underscores the need for the Province of B.C. to implement a province-wide short-term rental registry and platform accountability measures to save tenants billions in rent and address housing supply, attainability, and […]

September 25, 2023 | Captain Tiff

Happy Monday Morning! Headline inflation ripped higher than expected this week, jumping back up to 4% for the month of August. It turns out Chrystia Freeland’s premature victory lap marked the bottom back in June. There’s a lesson here in base effects, you’d think her economics team would have tapped her on the shoulder back […]

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