ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
April 22, 2024 | Two Big Lies
Happy Monday Morning! We typically try to steer clear of politics in these weekly musings. However, there were two big lies told by the Trudeau government this past week, both of which relate back to housing, the key focus of my work. The federal budget announced this past week brought no reduction in spending, shocking […]
April 15, 2024 | Pie in the Sky
Happy Monday Morning! The federal government will unveil their budget this Tuesday, ironically on the same day CPI data drops. They’ve already promoted billions of dollars in new spending in pre-budget announcements. Including more than $21B allocated to housing, which we discussed last week. In essence, the feds are paying for zoning. If provinces commit to […]
April 8, 2024 | Zoning for Cash
Happy Monday Morning! It’s budget season, and the fiscal taps are wide open, flush with new promises and billions in new spending. This will make life more difficult for Macklem and friends at the Bank of Canada who are still fighting the last mile on inflation. They’re on deck this week, no cut expected. It […]
April 1, 2024 | Productivity Emergency
Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian population ballooned by nearly 1.3 million in 2023, Stats Canada reported this past week. The expansion was fuelled largely by the arrival of temporary residents, which include international students, asylum seekers and people in Canada on work permits. Last year, their ranks grew by slightly more than 800,000, according to […]
March 25, 2024 | The Immigration Relief Valve
Happy Monday Morning! Housing affordability is front and center these days, as it should be. We are currently sitting at the worst levels of housing affordability since the 1980s. If housing doesn’t get fixed, and quickly, the political careers of JT and his liberals are finished. With the next federal election less than eighteen months […]
March 19, 2024 | Housing Wealth
Happy Monday Morning! In what seems like a recurring theme of late, inflation came in hotter than expected in the US this past week. Consumer prices increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% year-over-year. The last mile on getting […]
March 5, 2024 | Sheltering in Place
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held rates firm last week, pushing back on a growing chorus of market pundits calling for rate cuts. “The assessment of the governing council is that we need to give higher interest rates more time to do their work.” The persistence of core inflation north of […]
March 4, 2024 | Vacancy Control
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we introduced the home flipping tax. A seductive new tax introduced by the BC Government that will hit evil speculators with a 20% tax on any profits derived from flipping a property within two years. Remember this new tax comes on top of the tax CRA already collects which, for […]
January 29, 2024 | Kneecapped
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada maintained rates at 5% this past week. While Tiff pushed back on rate cut talk, he did leave us with some clues. “If the economy evolves broadly in line with the projection we published today, I expect future discussions will be about how long we maintain […]
January 22, 2024 | No solutions, Only Trade Offs
Happy Monday Morning! Tiff Macklem and the Bank of Canada are on deck this week. While they’re largely expected to remain on hold, Canadian households suffocating under the weight of higher interest payments will be looking for clues for when relief can be expected. The real estate market will be doing the same, it has […]
January 15, 2024 | Two Year Warning
Happy Monday Morning! We’ve talked a lot about immigration in this newsletter over the past couple of years. Immigration in Canada has always been considered an economic strength, the fact that people want to move here in large numbers is a testament to the desirability of this great nation. However, in recent years something has […]
January 8, 2024 | The Fate of the Housing Market
Happy Monday Morning! We’re back after a two week hiatus, hope everyone had an enjoyable holidays. I’m back in the saddle and gearing up for what will surely be an entertaining year ahead. I have seen a plethora of predictions for 2024, from soft landings to no landings, rate hikes to rate cuts, and everything […]
December 18, 2023 | Circling the Drain
Happy Monday morning! The worlds largest and most important central bank shook financial markets this past week, signalling rate cuts are now on the table next year. The feds dot plots, which are basically forecasts from fed members point to three rate cuts in 2024. Markets are currently expecting six!! Source: Jim Bianco Suffice to […]
December 11, 2023 | For Better or for Worse
Happy Monday Morning! In last weeks note we highlighted the BC Governments passing of bill 44 which effectively stripped municipalities of their zoning power by eliminating single family zoning, and requiring high-density development next to transit. The magnitude of these changes should not be understated. This is perhaps the single largest housing policy change in the history […]
December 4, 2023 | Rate Cuts and Density
Happy Monday Morning! On the heels of inflation slowing to 3.1% last week, we got more evidence rate hikes are indeed working through the system. Demand continues to weaken, households have stopped borrowing money, and as a result, the economy is circling the drain. GDP fell at an annualized pace of 1.1% in Q3, well […]
November 27, 2023 | More Firing than Hiring
Happy Monday Morning! Consumer prices eased in October, clocking in at 3.1% year-over-year, and down from 3.8% last month. This is welcome news for mortgage holders sweating over upcoming mortgage renewals. For Bank of Canada watchers, the BoC’s closely watched 3 month average core inflation measure dropped to 2.95%. We are getting close. Mortgage interest […]
November 20, 2023 | Here Comes the Kitchen Sink
Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian housing market is a funny thing. Despite a constant barrage of policy measures hoping to fix the crisis, affordability continues to deteriorate. As affordability issues deepen, policy measures are becoming more aggressive. Just to recap, over the past few years various levels of government have introduced a foreign buyers tax, […]
November 13, 2023 | Leaving a Mark
Happy Monday Morning! It’s been a busy twelve months for David Eby. The premier of BC has launched a barrage of policies aimed at remedying the provinces housing crisis, currently grappling with the worst housing affordability since the 1980’s. For those keeping score at home, here’s a quick summary: Eliminate rental restriction bylaws in all […]
November 6, 2023 | Weak Hands
Happy Monday Morning! Let’s address the elephant in the room. I sent out this tweet last week and it went viral. I can’t comment on who it is, for obvious reasons, so please stop asking. Although it really shouldn’t come as a surprise that a developer with a large construction pipeline is suddenly feeling the […]
October 30, 2023 | Structural Issues
Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 5% for the second consecutive time. BoC’s Macklem flagged everything we’ve been highlighting in this newsletter for several months now. Weaker economic growth and a recent surge in global bond yields is doing most of the tightening for them. Adding, “The path […]
October 23, 2023 | Bell Ringer
Happy Monday Morning! It’s a big week for Canadian households living on the edge. The Bank of Canada is poised to meet on Wednesday to deliver an update on their rate hiking crusade. It is largely expected they’ll remain on the sidelines, as they should given the slew of weak economic data in recent weeks. […]
October 16, 2023 | The Vortex
Happy Monday Morning! At the beginning of the year I was part of a real estate pannel with REW on the state of the Vancouver housing market. On stage, in front of a live audience, the moderator asked me for my forecast for 2023. I promplty noted at the time that “we’re going to have a year […]
October 2, 2023 | The Naughty List
Happy Monday Morning! The housing crisis in this country gets a lot of attention, as it should. Fixing it, however, is proving to be rather difficult. Over the past several years we have attempted to beat demand over the head with a blunt instrument. The list of policy measures include, a foreign buyers tax, […]
September 18, 2023 | Play Ball
Happy Monday Morning! Over the past several months we’ve been highlighting the marked slowdown in residential building permits, a leading indicator of future supply. This is what happens when the cost of capital doubles, and in some cases, triples. Souce: Ben Rabidoux This is a disaster in the making for a federal government insistent on […]
September 11, 2023 | It Tastes Awful, and it Works
Happy Monday Morning! The Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines once again, appeasing premiers in BC & Ontario who publicly pleaded with the BoC last week. It’s no secret these two provinces have the most to lose, their coffers largely built on a highly levered housing market, but we’ll get to that in a […]