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October 11, 2021 | Taper Time

The Canadian economy added 157,000 jobs in September, finally recouping all of the jobs lost during the height of the pandemic. However, wage inflation remains tepid, growing just 1.7% from last year, despite overall CPI inflation running at 4.1%, an eighteen year high. In other words, wage inflation is not keeping pace with the rising […]

October 5, 2021 | BC, Bring Cash

We’ve talked a lot about the great reshuffling here. The pandemic changed a lot of things, including where people want to live, and how they want to live. The lust for bigger spaces for less money has driven an exodus away from the city. Recent data from Stats Canada shows Canadians are on the move. Interprovincial […]

October 2, 2021 | Same, But Different?

It took over $600 million of tax pay dollars to reach the same outcome, another liberal minority government. I can think of a few better places to spend $600 million, affordable housing supply being one of them. Nonetheless, what’s done is done, and we now have some clarity on the direction of government and how […]

September 20, 2021 | Election Day

CPI inflation ripped, hitting 4.1% in August. Inflation in Canada is now accelerating at its fastest pace since 2003. The homeowners’ replacement cost index, which is related to the price of new homes, continued to trend upward, rising 14.3% year over year in August—the largest yearly increase since September 1987. Meanwhile, borrowing costs continue to fall. […]

September 14, 2021 | Certificates of Confiscation

The Bank of Canada provided guidance for how it plans to eventually remove stimulus, saying it will first raise interest rates before curbing its holdings of government bonds. The Bank has been using two major policies for suppressing interest rates, first by leaving its overnight policy rate near zero, and secondly by purchasing hundreds of […]

September 10, 2021 | The Cost of Living Crisis

Statistics Canada has revised the latest reading on GDP, highlighting a contraction of 1.1% at an annualized rate in the second quarter, well below the 2.5% expansion forecasted in a Bloomberg survey of economists. It’s a big miss, and one that does not bode well for the Trudeau Government as we head to the polls […]

August 30, 2021 | Foreign Buyer Be Gone

I don’t have any strong political views, I genuinely believe politicians are just pawns in a bigger system that is deeply entrenched in society today. In other words, full of promises but not a whole lot changes regardless of who gets in power. I do, however, have a few observations about these elections that i’d […]

August 24, 2021 | Free Money For All Renters

Election campaigns are in full swing, and at the centre of the political debate is the cost of living. CPI inflation just ticked in at 3.7% in July, one of the highest readings over the past two decades. Furthermore, housing inflation is out control, with national home prices accelerating at their fastest pace on record, […]

August 22, 2021 | Build Back Better

Here we go, the highly anticipated federal election this fall is now confirmed. The Trudeau government will seek to win a majority government in what is undoubtedly a power grab at a pivotal time in history. “Canadians need to choose how to finish the fight against COVID-19 and build back better. From getting the job done […]

August 9, 2021 | Real Estate Hoarding

The great reopening trade is in full swing. People have exited their homes and real estate has become less of a priority. We can see this in the housing data which continues to recede each month since the FOMO induced top in March. Sales here in Greater Vancouver have now dropped for four consecutive months […]

August 2, 2021 | Control the Narrative

The Canadian government announced it has extended its pandemic recovery benefits (also known as helicopter money) until October 23, 2021. It’s getting hard to track all these programs, not to mention how many times they have now been extended. The following money drops are ongoing: 1. The Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB) 2. The Canada Emergency Wage […]

July 30, 2021 | Your Economic Textbook Will Do you No Good

According to a report this past week from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the pandemic recession only lasted two months, from February 2020 to April 2020. This makes it the shortest recession in the history of the United States. The Bureau defines a recession usually as “a decline in economic activity that lasts more […]

July 20, 2021 | Vote Buying Season?

I’ve talked a lot about the great reopening trade. People are getting vaccinated, the weather is great, and people are desperate to get out of their house after tiresome lockdowns. In fact, Canada has now fully vaccinated 48.8% of its population against Covid-19, overtaking the U.S. for the first time. It’s no surprise that housing […]

July 18, 2021 | The Last Housing Bear Capitulates

Per the most recent data from the Canadian Bankers Association, nearly 17% of all mortgages in Canada received a mortgage deferral at one point or another during the pandemic. At the end of February, 98% of those deferrals expired. Home prices during this time are up 24% nationally. Who saw that coming? Certainly not our […]

July 6, 2021 | The Reopening Trade

The pandemic induced housing boom has been well documented so I won’t go into great detail here. In hindsight it was easy to see, people got locked in their homes, they suddenly needed more space, some people decided to move further away from the office as the prospects of work from home appeared more permanent. […]

June 30, 2021 | Transitory Inflation

There’s a lot of bets these days on higher inflation and higher interest rates. After being plagued for over a decade with a zero interest rate policy, a new combination of government spending and central bank QE purchases are poised to send inflation higher. So far that’s been the winning trade, with CPI inflation printing […]

June 21, 2021 | Housing Bubbles

Canadian house prices have been flagged as over valued, unstable, and a risk to the financial system for a long time. These concerns have been noted by institutions such as the IMF (International Monetary Fund) since at least 2012, and have been cited as a major concern by our very own central bank since about […]

June 15, 2021 | A Bidding War With BlackRock

The Covid housing boom has spurred new riches for Canadian homeowners. Household net worth surged 21.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, the largest gain on record. Indeed rising home prices, at least on paper, are making Canadians feel wealthier. To no surprise, households that own their home accounted for almost all of the gains in the […]

June 7, 2021 | The Gold Rush

The Canadian labour market disappointed for a second straight month, this time shedding 68,000 jobs in May according to Stats Canada. This pushed the unemployment rate back up to 8.2%. If the Bank of Canada was looking for some air cover in order to maintain current stimulus measures, look no further. Sure inflation is running […]

May 31, 2021 | Helicopter Money and Debt Jubilees

It has been fascinating to watch the Governments response to combatting the pandemic from an economic perspective. Remember, in Q2 2020, at the onset of the pandemic, labour income declined by $20B. However, government transfers not only plugged the hole in the leaking ship, they went above and beyond that. Government transfers to households grew […]

May 24, 2021 | We Peaked in March

The Bank of Canada is suddenly worried about rising debt loads and extrapolative expectations in the nations housing market. Following the central banks update to their financial stability review, governor Tiff Macklem took to the airwaves, “Some people may be thinking that the kind of price increases we have seen recently will continue. That would be […]

May 18, 2021 | Tiff is Hostage

During a Q&A this past week with Canadian university students, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged, “QE can boost wealth by increasing the value of assets such as the investments Canadians have in their RRSPs or company pension plans. But of course, these assets aren’t distributed evenly across society. As a result, QE can […]

May 10, 2021 | Inflation Boom

Inflation is picking up, this is particularly the case for commodities. Commodities jumped to their highest in almost a decade as a rebound in the world’s largest economies stokes demand for metals, food and energy. The Bloomberg commodity index is now up a whopping 50.54% from last year, and 20% year to date. “The surge […]

May 4, 2021 | The Housing Story Is Far From Over

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is expected to release April’s housing data today. Brace yourself for some eye-popping media headlines. Home sales across Greater Vancouver surged 340% year-over-year. Yes you read that correctly. The move is almost entirely due to weak base-effects from last year, when housing activity collapsed at the onset of […]

April 27, 2021 | Don’t Touch The Golden Goose

Leading up to the Federal budget announcement, the rumour mill was churning, with mainstream media outlets salivating over a possible tax on primary residences, including speculation taxes or even increased taxes on capital gains when selling investment properties. Instead, the federal government delivered none of that, ultimately opting not to tinker with the golden goose. […]

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