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December 22, 2021 | Monetary Imprudence

Christmas came early for the 69% of Canadians who own a home. The latest data released from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows national home prices inflated at the quickest pace ever, rising 25% from last year. The home price index which measures the price of a typical home in Canada now sits at $780,400, […]

December 13, 2021 | Wartime Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Despite the market pressuring the Bank of Canada to begin liftoff and start hiking interest rates, they held firm once again this past week. The bank flagged the recent floods in BC and the emergence of the Omicron variant as air cover to stand pat. Per the official release,  “the Governing Council judges that in […]

December 6, 2021 | This is What a Crisis Looks Like

House shoppers are showing very few signs of fatigue. The latest data out of Vancouver & Toronto for the month of November suggests the bull market remains fully intact. Greater Vancouver home sales jumped 11% from last year, the second strongest November on record besides 2015. In case you forgot, the winter of 2015 was […]

November 29, 2021 | Who’s to Blame?

Bank of Canada deputy governor, Paul Beaudry is worried about the number of investors flooding the housing market. According to the Bank, investor buying has doubled since the start of the pandemic, while purchases by first-time homebuyers have increased about 45 per cent. “A sudden influx of investors in the housing market likely contributed to […]

November 25, 2021 | Interest Rates Do Not Reflect Inflation

We got a string of new data this past week confirming inflation in consumer goods, and housing are proving to be more than transitory. Canada’s consumer price index continued to drift higher with prices hitting an 18 year high, up 4.7% from last October. The recent floods in BC are already creating significant food and […]

November 15, 2021 | Funding The Biggest Borrower

The calls for impending interest rate hikes continues. CIBC’s chief economist, Benjamin Tal, was out recently suggesting the Bank of Canada could hike its benchmark interest rate at least six times beginning in early 2022. “I think there is a risk of getting into the market at today’s rates,” noted Tal. “We are still dealing with […]

November 9, 2021 | Cooling Off Period

The BC Government announced it is looking at several cooling measures for the housing market in 2022. They have highlighted two measures. The first is an end to the blind bidding process, and the other is a mandatory “cooling off period” which will allow any buyer a 7 day recession period to back out of […]

November 1, 2021 | Financial Repression

The Bank of Canada continues to slowly drain liquidity after flooding the system with a firehose of cash during the pandemic. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem announced the end of Canada’s QE program (also known as money printing). Furthermore, in Macklems words, “We expect to begin increasing our policy rate sometime between April and […]

October 25, 2021 | The Complicated Path Forward

Consumer price inflation ripped higher in September, surging 4.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace of price increases in 18 years. Let’s discuss this further. We have an inflation problem and the Bank of Canada remains of the view that inflation will be transitory. Although they really can’t say otherwise, for if they did it would only […]

October 19, 2021 | Back to the Offer Table

It was back to the offer table for Canadian house shoppers. After a brief pause in shopping activity, home buyers returned in September. Sales activity increased 0.9% from August, as new listings declined. Low inventory levels continue to decimate the nations housing market as buyers pick over the scraps. There is just 2.1 months of inventory […]

October 11, 2021 | Taper Time

The Canadian economy added 157,000 jobs in September, finally recouping all of the jobs lost during the height of the pandemic. However, wage inflation remains tepid, growing just 1.7% from last year, despite overall CPI inflation running at 4.1%, an eighteen year high. In other words, wage inflation is not keeping pace with the rising […]

October 5, 2021 | BC, Bring Cash

We’ve talked a lot about the great reshuffling here. The pandemic changed a lot of things, including where people want to live, and how they want to live. The lust for bigger spaces for less money has driven an exodus away from the city. Recent data from Stats Canada shows Canadians are on the move. Interprovincial […]

October 2, 2021 | Same, But Different?

It took over $600 million of tax pay dollars to reach the same outcome, another liberal minority government. I can think of a few better places to spend $600 million, affordable housing supply being one of them. Nonetheless, what’s done is done, and we now have some clarity on the direction of government and how […]

September 20, 2021 | Election Day

CPI inflation ripped, hitting 4.1% in August. Inflation in Canada is now accelerating at its fastest pace since 2003. The homeowners’ replacement cost index, which is related to the price of new homes, continued to trend upward, rising 14.3% year over year in August—the largest yearly increase since September 1987. Meanwhile, borrowing costs continue to fall. […]

September 14, 2021 | Certificates of Confiscation

The Bank of Canada provided guidance for how it plans to eventually remove stimulus, saying it will first raise interest rates before curbing its holdings of government bonds. The Bank has been using two major policies for suppressing interest rates, first by leaving its overnight policy rate near zero, and secondly by purchasing hundreds of […]

September 10, 2021 | The Cost of Living Crisis

Statistics Canada has revised the latest reading on GDP, highlighting a contraction of 1.1% at an annualized rate in the second quarter, well below the 2.5% expansion forecasted in a Bloomberg survey of economists. It’s a big miss, and one that does not bode well for the Trudeau Government as we head to the polls […]

August 30, 2021 | Foreign Buyer Be Gone

I don’t have any strong political views, I genuinely believe politicians are just pawns in a bigger system that is deeply entrenched in society today. In other words, full of promises but not a whole lot changes regardless of who gets in power. I do, however, have a few observations about these elections that i’d […]

August 24, 2021 | Free Money For All Renters

Election campaigns are in full swing, and at the centre of the political debate is the cost of living. CPI inflation just ticked in at 3.7% in July, one of the highest readings over the past two decades. Furthermore, housing inflation is out control, with national home prices accelerating at their fastest pace on record, […]

August 22, 2021 | Build Back Better

Here we go, the highly anticipated federal election this fall is now confirmed. The Trudeau government will seek to win a majority government in what is undoubtedly a power grab at a pivotal time in history. “Canadians need to choose how to finish the fight against COVID-19 and build back better. From getting the job done […]

August 9, 2021 | Real Estate Hoarding

The great reopening trade is in full swing. People have exited their homes and real estate has become less of a priority. We can see this in the housing data which continues to recede each month since the FOMO induced top in March. Sales here in Greater Vancouver have now dropped for four consecutive months […]

August 2, 2021 | Control the Narrative

The Canadian government announced it has extended its pandemic recovery benefits (also known as helicopter money) until October 23, 2021. It’s getting hard to track all these programs, not to mention how many times they have now been extended. The following money drops are ongoing: 1. The Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB) 2. The Canada Emergency Wage […]

July 30, 2021 | Your Economic Textbook Will Do you No Good

According to a report this past week from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the pandemic recession only lasted two months, from February 2020 to April 2020. This makes it the shortest recession in the history of the United States. The Bureau defines a recession usually as “a decline in economic activity that lasts more […]

July 20, 2021 | Vote Buying Season?

I’ve talked a lot about the great reopening trade. People are getting vaccinated, the weather is great, and people are desperate to get out of their house after tiresome lockdowns. In fact, Canada has now fully vaccinated 48.8% of its population against Covid-19, overtaking the U.S. for the first time. It’s no surprise that housing […]

July 18, 2021 | The Last Housing Bear Capitulates

Per the most recent data from the Canadian Bankers Association, nearly 17% of all mortgages in Canada received a mortgage deferral at one point or another during the pandemic. At the end of February, 98% of those deferrals expired. Home prices during this time are up 24% nationally. Who saw that coming? Certainly not our […]

July 6, 2021 | The Reopening Trade

The pandemic induced housing boom has been well documented so I won’t go into great detail here. In hindsight it was easy to see, people got locked in their homes, they suddenly needed more space, some people decided to move further away from the office as the prospects of work from home appeared more permanent. […]

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