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April 28, 2025 | Election Day
Happy Monday Morning! Today is the day, Canadians across the country will head to the voting booths and decide the direction of the country for the next four years. Polls suggest another liberal government, but polls are often wrong. This will be a tight race, so get out and vote. Cost of living and housing […]
April 14, 2025 | Bonds!
Happy Monday Morning! It’s a big week for mortgage shoppers. Fixed rates are on the move higher after unprecedented volatility in the bond market. Bond volatility as measured by the MOVE index touched as high as 172 intraday, levels only seen during times of turmoil (Oct 1998 LTCM collapse, Sep 2008 Lehman collapse, Mar 2023 […]
April 7, 2025 | The Next Lost Decade
Happy Monday Morning! As we reported a few weeks ago, consumer confidence in Canada has plunged to twenty year lows amidst growing job losses and a global tariff war. The lack of confidence is showing up in home sales, which have fallen off a cliff in recent months. Recent data for the month of March […]
March 31, 2025 | The Human QE Hangover
Happy Monday Morning! As we learned last week, Canada’s population surge has come to an end. Population growth rose by just 0.15% last quarter, which outside of the 2020 lockdowns was the slowest quarter for population growth since 2017. For the first time in three years, the non-permanent resident cohort outright contracted. More importantly, if […]
March 24, 2025 | Heading to the Polls
Happy Monday Morning! It’s official, Canadians are heading to the polls on April 28th. Interim PM, Mark Carney has triggered an election, in what will surely be one of the most consequential elections in recent history. The country is caught between a rock and a hard place, fighting multiple battles on different fronts. Not only […]
March 17, 2025 | Gone Missing
Happy Monday Morning! Canada has a new Prime Minister. Mark Carney was installed as leader of the country this past week. How long he lasts is anyone’s guess, but if he does eventually survive a federal election he will have some difficult decisions. One of which is housing. Real Estate sales are circling the drain, […]
March 10, 2025 | Timing
Happy Monday Morning! Just last week we highlighted the growing desperation in the new construction market where pre-sales are struggling, and unsold inventory is piling up across the country. This is particularly true in Canada’s two largest major metros of Toronto and Vancouver. In 2024, Toronto pre-sales hit 30 year lows. A stunningly bad figure […]
March 3, 2025 | Limping Across the Finish Line
Happy Monday Morning! The Canadian economy expanded at a stronger-than-expected 2.6% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, far exceeding the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.8% and the 1.7% median estimate from economists in a Bloomberg survey. However, under the hood, the details left more to be desired. According to Statistics Canada, GDP per capita […]
February 24, 2025 | Shelter Inflation
Happy Monday Morning! A recent reprieve on tariffs, combined with slightly hotter than expected jobs and inflation data have slowed the odds of a rate cut from the Bank of Canada in March. The two core inflation measures — so-called trim and median — both jumped to 2.7% in January. These metrics have been stuck […]
February 10, 2025 | The Discretionary Bid
Happy Monday Morning! And just like that, tariffs are off. At least for the next 30 days, or so we are told. In other words, the direction of the Canadian economy really depends on what side of the bed President Trump wakes up on. Remember, just last week we were facing 25% tariffs across the […]
February 3, 2025 | Tariffs & Housing
Happy Monday Morning! We are now in the midst of a full blown tariff war. There’s plenty of smart economic commentary out there, so let’s get into it. According to BMO’s chief economist, Doug Porter, “Trump’s tariff hammer will come down hard on Canada’s economy. If the announced tariffs remain in place for one year, […]
January 27, 2025 | Poorer Than You Think
Happy Monday Morning! A good reminder from the economics team at National Bank highlights the sobering proposition that a Canadian household would need an annual income of approximately $186,963 to afford a mortgage on a median-priced home in this country, at which point the government thinks you’re rich and taxes you into oblivion. In places […]
January 20, 2025 | The Cash Cow
Happy Monday Morning! Highlighting a good piece from the BMO economics team this past week. Per BMO, The Canadian housing market should firm modestly this year, but it’s still a long way back to the 2022 highs. Activity and prices have recently improved alongside Bank of Canada rate cuts, and that moderate upward momentum should […]
January 13, 2025 | Big Bank, Big Forecasts
Happy Monday Morning! Every New Year is marked with forecasts. There’s a natural affinity for making predictions about house prices, particularly in Canada. Most homeowners we chat with today believe two things, interest rates are going lower and house prices should rise in 2025. I have a few thoughts, but first let’s see what the […]
January 6, 2025 | Results May Vary
Happy Monday Morning! Welcome to a New Year. The Real Estate industry remains optimistic that 2025 will finally mark the end of the housing bear market, after what’s been a grueling few years. Are we really turning the corner, or is there more pain to come? Let’s do a deep dive on the Vancouver housing […]