- the source for market opinions


September 25, 2023 | Captain Tiff

Happy Monday Morning! Headline inflation ripped higher than expected this week, jumping back up to 4% for the month of August. It turns out Chrystia Freeland’s premature victory lap marked the bottom back in June. There’s a lesson here in base effects, you’d think her economics team would have tapped her on the shoulder back […]

July 31, 2023 | Same Faces, Different Places

Happy Monday Morning! The Trudeau liberals shuffled the deck this past week, replacing several key cabinet positions. Amongst those moves was a change of the housing minister. Ahmed Hussen is out, which should not come as a surprise given house prices have doubled under the current government, with an election not far away. Hussen’s track […]

July 24, 2023 | A Price to Pay

Happy Monday Morning! CPI headline inflation came in lower than expected this past week. Markets were calling for 3% and we got 2.8%, a pleasant surprise and back to its lowest levels since March 2021. Perhaps the 475bps of rate hikes are finally starting to work their way through the system? We are back within […]

June 19, 2023 | Credit Slump

Happy Monday Morning! As mentioned in last weeks note, the great big housing boom is over. You see housing booms need credit, lots of it, to keep the wheels churning. The single largest driver of home prices over the past few years has been cheap and abundant credit. When money is basically free you tend to […]

December 21, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – December 2022

Sales activity remains subdued across Greater Vancouver as we close out the year. Buyers are tepid, not eager to write offers and are looking to negotiate, can you blame them? Sales activity remains historically weak.  In the month of November, sales across Greater Vancouver totalled 1624, down 54% from November 2021 and marking the third […]

November 17, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – November 2022

As we expected and discussed in last months report, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 50bps in October. Markets were pricing in a 75bps rate hike but the Bank of Canada failed to deliver, citing growing concerns around financial stability. It’s the first time in awhile they have flagged financial stability concerns, which […]

October 18, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – October 2022

It was another slow month for the Greater Vancouver housing market in September. While housing activity was historically low, there is still much to talk about across the housing spectrum. The volatility across global financial markets has been extreme and that is no doubt having a major influence on our local housing market. Interest rates […]

September 13, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – September 2022

There’s always lots to talk about in the Vancouver housing market, especially these days. We have plenty of updates this month on interest rates, trigger rates, and the investor/ rental market. Housing activity remains on the same course it’s been on over the past few months. Greater Vancouver home sales dropped 40% y/y in August. […]

August 11, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – August 2022

Continuing on the theme from last month, housing activity continues to slow as expected when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100bps last month and instantly reduced borrowers purchasing power. Remember, over 50% of new mortgage applicants this year have been going with variable rate mortgages, in large part to dodge the pain […]

July 19, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – July 2022

I’m a bit later than usual in writing this report and it’s probably for the best. As of this writing on July 13th, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates a monstrous 100bps, the single largest increase since 1998. This will have significant ramifications for the housing market, not just psychologically but financially.

June 14, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – June 2022

As has been the theme for the past few reports, inflation and interest rates remain front and center. Inflation remains stubbornly high and central banks are panicking to reign it in. They are now tasked with the impossible mission of killing enough demand to bring commodity prices (energy) down, without triggering a financial mistake and […]

May 10, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – May 2022

Last month we discussed the beginnings of a slowdown, and that theme continues this month. For the first time since 2010, the lowest nationally-available uninsured 5-year fixed rate mortgage is now north of 4%. This means that any buyer opting to make a purchase using a 5 year fixed rate will be stress tested at […]

April 15, 2022 | Saretsky Report April 2022

Last month I wrote about the early signs of the housing market  beginning to turn. Fewer offers, less FOMO, etc. Again, none of this  should have come as a surprise, we’ve had two years of record home sales and runaway price growth, and trees don’t grow to the sky.

March 12, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – February 2022

I’m about to walk you through the usual Saretsky Report where we highlight all sorts of charts and data points pertaining to the housing  market. What I want to emphasize is that the situation is changing rather quickly. A war has erupted in Ukraine, commodity prices are ripping- adding to inflationary pressures, and the Bank […]

February 9, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – January 2022

For regular readers of this report you will remember that 2021 marked a record year for Greater Vancouver home sales, smashing through previous highs set in 2015. That momentum has carried over into 2022. Sales remain incredibly strong, still running more than 30% above the long run average. Meanwhile, inventory in the month of January […]

January 11, 2022 | The Saretsky Report December 2021

It was a blockbuster year for the Vancouver housing market. Annual sales finished the year at just over 44,000, an all time record high. The previous high of 42,000 was set in 2015 during the last housing boom that was sparked by an inflow of offshore cash.

December 14, 2021 | The Saretsky Report – November 2021

It was another painful month to be a home buyer in Greater Vancouver. Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse, they did. Sales increased 12%, rising to their second highest levels on record, falling just short of November 2015. Meanwhile, inventory collapsed a whopping 40% from last years levels. Obviously this is creating […]

November 11, 2021 | The Saretsky Report – October 2021

The Greater Vancouver housing market continued to rip in the month of October. If you focus squarely on sales you’d be missing the forest for the trees. Sales were officially down 5%, a small drop from last years all-time record high. However, new listings absolutely plunged, dropping 28%, and total inventory for sale dropped a […]

October 8, 2021 | The Saretsky Report – September 2021

Despite the uncertainties of a federal election the housing market continued to hum along in September. Home sales dipped 13% when compared to last September, but that should not come as a surprise considering last September marked an all-time record high for the month. Year-overyear base effects will be hard to top in the months […]

September 15, 2021 | The Saretsky Report August 2021

Suffice to say, the housing market remains front and center of most discussions. After surging to unprecedented levels during the height of the pandemic, it has taken a much needed breather this summer. However, this story is far from over.

August 23, 2021 | The Saretsky Report – July 2021

As discussed in last months report, the great reopening trade is in full swing. People have exited their homes and real estate has become less of a priority. We can see this in the housing data which continues to recede each month since the FOMO induced top in March. Sales here in Greater Vancouver have […]

July 21, 2021 | The Saretsky Report – June 2021

The Great reopening is upon us. Similar to the stock market, you have the pandemic trade, which resulted in people wanting bigger homes away from the city, and now I think we are entering the reopening trade.  Take the US, for example, which is arguably a month or two ahead of us. Most of the […]

June 8, 2021 | The Saretsky Report – May 2021

Let me paint a picture for you. Last May, at the onset of the pandemic, economic and housing activity completely shuts down. The world goes into panic mode. In an effort to prevent an economic depression and a wave of defaults, the government along with the central bank, decide to essentially print money and hand […]

May 7, 2021 | The Saretsky Report – April 2021

We have discussed in past reports the ongoing strength in the Canadian housing markets being largely attributed to excess liquidity and credit creation that was manufactured out of Ottawa.  Commercial bank credit creation is running hot, thanks to Federal Government Guaranteed loans that have simultaneously been supported by the Bank of Canada’s Quantitative Easing Program. […]

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