- the source for market opinions


October 31, 2023 | World War III – It’s Inevitable

  COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is safe to say that nobody can hold a light to Socrates. Nobody has forecast war three years in advance as you did in 2011. Nobody has predicted a Middle East War in advance as you did two years ago. Even your posts on Turkey and its conflict with NATO, our […]

October 31, 2023 | Art of the Collapse, November 2023

Let’s start with an appealing vision of the afterlife… … and contrast that with the real world, where hedge fund assholes turn necessities like shelter into casino chips: Meanwhile, geopolitics is making life hard for the “I support current thing” crowd:

October 31, 2023 | China’s Real Estate Bust Has Global Implications

The International Monetary Fund warned this month that the downdraft in China’s real estate sector has contagion implications globally: In the near term, the sharp adjustment in China’s heavily indebted property sector and the resulting slowdown in economic activity will likely spill over to the region, particularly to commodity exporters with close trade links to China. Beyond […]

October 30, 2023 | Structural Issues

Happy Monday Morning! As expected, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 5% for the second consecutive time. BoC’s Macklem flagged everything we’ve been highlighting in this newsletter for several months now. Weaker economic growth and a recent surge in global bond yields is doing most of the tightening for them. Adding, “The path […]

October 30, 2023 | Stock Market Likelihood is Lower for Longer

  The average time from a yield curve inversion (long-interest rates below short) to the onset of recession has been ten months historically, ranging from 11 to 22 months. October marks the eighteenth month of curve inversion this cycle. Moreover, since June, the yield spread has been flattening out. As we start this trading week, […]

October 30, 2023 | In The War on Truth, It’s Time To Become Heroes

“Truth is treason in an empire of lies.” – George Orwell “The conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses is an important element in democratic society. Those who manipulate this unseen mechanism of society constitute an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country. …We are […]

October 29, 2023 | Debt Catharsis

The ancient Greeks had a word κάθαρσις, which in English we now spell as “catharsis,” although it’s pronounced basically the same. It originally referred to purifying religious ceremonies, medical treatments, and so on. Aristotle was the first we know to have used the word in a non-physical sense. He compared the emotions felt by spectators […]

October 29, 2023 | Our #1 Bellwether Defies October Curse

Although my technical forecasts have generally been accurate, occasional guesses about when the sky would fall have consistently underimagined the height of bullish folly. Since yet another October looks likely to pass without a stock-market crash, perhaps it’s a good time to look at the chart of Apple, an institutional proxy that is incapable of […]

October 28, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For October 28, 2023

The Nasdaq had its best-ever first-half gain this year (~45%) but peaked in July and fell ~12% to this week’s lows The Nasdaq’s “defining moment” was made on July 18 when MSFT’s market cap soared ~$100 billion in an hour on an AI announcement, taking the share price to All-Time Highs of ~$367. Within three days, […]

October 28, 2023 | Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow When He Sees the PCE Inflation in “Core Services,” Housing, and Non-Housing Core Services

The spike in inflation in “core services” (all services except energy services) was the big nasty surprise – inflation is infamous for dishing up nasty surprises – in today’s release of the PCE price index for September. “Core services” is the index that Fed chair Jerome Powell has been hammering on, especially “core services without […]

October 28, 2023 | It’s Just Our Turn

   This is not my only source about terrorist cells moving into the USA because Biden has opened the borders. The open border has had two objectives. Democrats in Texas are already pushing that illegal aliens should be allowed to vote. They are being joined nationally and Biden will do an executive order to […]

October 28, 2023 | Re-Steepening Yield Curve Signals Financial Trauma in Motion

In the past few months, short-term treasury yields have risen more than long-term such that the yield curve, which has been inverted since April 2021, is now un-inverting. This move typically signals the near-term onset of recession and the worst stock market losses. The chart below from my partner Cory Venable shows the move in […]

October 28, 2023 | This Week in Money

  • Ross Clark:  Gold, Oil, USD, Canadian Dollar, Uranium, Orange Juice, Cocoa
  • John Rubino:  (14:20) Higher Interest Rates, Gold, Bitcoin, Geo-Political Conflicts, World War 3
  • Wolf Richter: (45:29)  US Treasury Bills, US Consumer Spending, Is it a good time to buy a Vehicle?
  • Zarko Meseldzija:  (1:25:00) CEO of  RecycLiCo™ Battery Materials Inc. on company Showcase –  Upcoming RecycLiCo™ Battery Materials AGM and Latest Industry News.  Watch – We upcycle cathode scraps and black mass into higher-value battery materials!  Video  – The demonstration plant for the RecycLiCo™ Patented Process is now operational in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.  Questions?  Email or Phone: 778.574.4444

October 28, 2023 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 28th 2023

The Bottom Line According to “October 27th marks the average start to the best six months of the year for stocks.  Over the past five decades, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 8.12% between October 27th and May 5th.” In addition, the strongest nine day period in the year for the […]

October 27, 2023 | The Bank of Canada Needs To Worry About a Recession

The Bank of Canada kept its official interest rate at 5 percent on Wednesday, October 25, 2023. The Governor, Tiff Macklem, emphasized that the BOC is willing to hike rates higher if needed, as he is not happy with the rate of decline in the inflation measures. But the BOC also issued a lower forecast […]

October 27, 2023 | Canadian Recession is Here

David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research and Ed Devlin, founder of Devlin Capital, senior fellow at C.D. Howe Institute and former head of Canadian portfolio management at PIMCO, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss their economic outlook. They say that even as many believe a soft landing is still accomplishable, there are some metrics […]

October 27, 2023 | Junior Gold Miners May Start to Shine Again

Did the US economy really grow 4.9% in Q 3?

October 27, 2023 | Are Golden Opportunities Coming?

Car loan defaults hitting record numbers

October 26, 2023 | Biden: If There Were Not An Israel We’d Have to Invent One

For those wondering if the US is using Israel as a vassal state, simply look at what President Biden has been spewing since the 80s. “If there were not an Israel, we’d have to invent one,” Biden first said during a Senate session in 1986 after sending Israel $3 billion. Straight from the horse’s mouth, […]

October 26, 2023 | Luxury Losing Its Luster

What about wealthy people not being hurt by higher debt payments? Nonsense, as usual! As financial markets tumble, luxury spending follows. The slowdown is ubiquitous, folks. CNBC’s Robert Frank reports on spending pull backs from the luxury consumer and what it could be signaling for the economy at large. Here is a direct video link. Bank […]

October 26, 2023 | Tread Carefully!

Our mission as an investment newsletter is to research and provide the best information for our subscribers, assisting them to become better, more successful investors. Navigating through the current market environment continues to be challenging, and we don’t anticipate it getting easier in the very near-term. The unique dynamics of this year have made it […]

October 26, 2023 | Will the Plunge Protection Team Boost Stock Markets?

Crypto boost on possible ETF approval. Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

October 25, 2023 | Mercantilism v Consumerism – China’s Direction

Mercantilism is the economic theory that trade generates wealth and is stimulated by the accumulation of profitable balances, which a government should encourage by means of protectionism, according to the Oxford Dictionary. We see nations like Germany rely on this model as they produce various products to export through trade. German manufacturing has provided the […]

October 25, 2023 | A Case of Overkill

It is not just rapid hikes in the overnight rate (525 basis points in 18 months by the US Fed and 475 basis points in Canada), which are contracting credit and slowing spending through the real economy. The drop in equity and bond prices, along with the jump in fossil fuel costs and the US […]

October 25, 2023 | Middle East Risk, China, Gold, US Dollar

Cryptos, Interest Rates

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