- the source for market opinions


August 14, 2019 | Has the “Smart Money” Entered the US Share Market Yet

QUESTION: Dear Armstrong, According to Dow, a bull market has 3 phases, the final being the distribution by the smart money to the public. You stated that retail is still not participating. Could this be why the market appears to be unable to stop going up? Because the smart money continually fail to entice the […]

August 14, 2019 | Subprime Auto Loans Blow Up, Delinquencies at 2009 Level, Biggest 12-Month Surge Since 2010

But these are the good times. Automakers are not amused. The auto industry depends on subprime-rated customers that make up over 21% of total auto-loan originations. Without these customers, the wheels would come off the industry. And tightening up lending standards to reduce risks would cause serious damage to the undercarriage. Subprime lending is very […]

August 13, 2019 | More Currency Wars: Swiss Central Bank Poised to Cut Interest Rate to -1.0%

The Swiss national bank is not happy with appreciation of the Franc. Its solution is likely another rate cut to -1.0%. Bloomberg reports SNB Likely to Follow Interventions With Interest-Rate Cut. The Swiss National Bank may have to do more than pump billions into foreign exchange markets into prevent the franc from appreciating to a damaging […]

August 13, 2019 | ETFs, Gold, and Silver

A reader asked me to discuss the impact of ETFs on precious metals. The basics have been covered many times in articles like this one. So I’m taking the question as: do I have anything useful to add to what people are saying about ETFs? Perhaps I do… Paper Is Not Gold This may seem […]

August 13, 2019 | Get a Step Ahead of Trump and You Could Make $$$ Billions!

A trader who knew what Trump was going to say next about tariffs could make more money in a few months than Trump himself is worth. Do the math if you don’t believe it. When China devalued the yuan on August 5, Trump fired back with a threat to broaden tariffs to cover virtually all […]

August 13, 2019 | Desperate Markets Manipulated Up 500 points at Opening!

A mere word from our leader, Mr. Trump, on the issue of tariffs creates huge cyber market manipulations (both up and down). Silver was slammed today and our cyber stock markets were pumped UP (as I write). It all happens at the New York Fed and traders on the 8th and 9th floors in this building. […]

August 13, 2019 | Debt Weight on the Young is Impediment for Economy Overall

A new study from Hoyes, Michalos & Associates Inc:  ‘Student Debt Crisis – a Generation Buried in Student Debt’ finds student debt contributed to 17.6% of Ontario’s reported insolvencies in 2018, and a record over the firm’s nine years of collecting such data. Factors cited behind the insolvency “epidemic” are high tuition costs and an increased […]

August 13, 2019 | Extremists

Have you noticed the middle’s missing these days? In politics, libs and cons might as well be commies and Nazis. The globalists are battling the nationalists. Society’s divided between the 1% and the 99%. The Mills have declared war on the Boomers. The #MeToo movement turned men into the enemy of women. And when it […]

August 13, 2019 | Is the Dollar Rally the Same as the Great Depression?

QUESTION: Marty: If I have this correctly, you’ve said the Great Depression of the 1930s was a Global Capital Flow problem set in motion largely by sovereign debt issues that led to a massive capital flight into the dollar which created a tidal wave of deflation. Are we seeing this scenario today? Cheers, TM ANSWER: […]

August 13, 2019 | August 19 (Crazy Ivan) Event Only A Few Days Away

Our researchers have created this research post to highlight a big price move based on super-cycle research and patterns that should begin on or near August 19, 2019.  Back in April/May 2019, we started warning of a critical top formation we believed was aligned for July 2019.  In May/June, we altered this date to align […]

August 13, 2019 | The Fed Should Let the Market Set Rates

POITOU, FRANCE – Yesterday, stocks traded down. Investors are getting spooked by high bond prices (low yields). MarketWatch: The yield for the longest-dated Treasury bond is now a hair’s breadth away from plumbing its lowest level in history. Investors said the $22 trillion U.S. government debt market was now approaching this key milestone on a […]

August 12, 2019 | Pressure Mounts for China to Give In

We could know soon whether Trump’s trade war against China has been worth it. Beijing has increasingly good reason to give way, since there are signs that the Chinese economy is starting to implode. GDP was recently reported at 6.2%, the slowest pace since 1992, and consumers have been hit hard by the devaluation of […]

August 12, 2019 | Monetary Madness: Inverted Negative Yields in Germany, Negative Rate Mortgages

Monetary madness hit new extremes. Mortgage rates are -0.5% in Denmark. In Germany, a negative-yield curve inverts. This morning, the German 3-month bond yield is -0.558% while the 10-year bond yield is -0.593. Thus 10-year bonds yield less than 3-month bonds (inversion), while the whole curve is negative. Never Cheaper to Borrow Meanwhile, Jyske Bank, […]

August 12, 2019 | Money, Money, Money – Where Is It?

 Is this concept called ‘money’ an illusion? Is it a mere symbol within my consciousness? Does this item called money ‘exist’? What is this item which I call the ‘dollar’? Is it fake, funny money, an illusion or what? Let’s think about this concept (idea) called money and especially this currency called ‘dollar’ for this missive. […]

August 12, 2019 | First to Call “Gold Bull Run.” First to Call “The Greatest Depression.”

KINGSTON, 9 August 2019—With all my heart, I do hope that as a Trends Journal subscriber you took action to become truly “Golden” after reading my 6 June Trend Alert®, the “Gold Bull Run” when gold was at $1,332 an ounce. It is now over $1,500. And, gold has strongly solidified above the $1,450 per ounce breakout point […]

August 12, 2019 | Can’t Wait

Pete’s a thirtysomething, late-stage Millennial (the most dangerous kind). “Looking to see if you can help me with my finances,” he wrote. Yeah, sure. Gimme details. “I have a fair grasp on investing but looking to fine tune with some advise on tax optimization in RRSP,  TFSA and non-tax sheltered accounts and to ensure my […]

August 12, 2019 | Part II – Global Central Banks Kick Can Down The Road Again

As we continue to explore the events of the past 10 to 20+ years and how the global central banks continue to attempt to navigate through these difficult times, we want to take a few minutes to try to understand and explain how the capital that has exploded into the global markets has been deployed […]

August 12, 2019 | Can the US Government Really Force the Dollar Lower?

QUESTION: Hi Martin, What tools do the US have to TRY and manipulate their dollar lower (other than cutting interest rates) and in your opinion would they be successful? How much do they have in the Exchange Stabilization Fund? Do they have a defense plan to limit and control capital flows coming in? Thanks, RM […]

August 11, 2019 | Simple Advice to Avoid Getting Shot by a Madman

If you watched the news last week, it was impossible to avoid getting a loud earful about mass shootings and gun-control. President Trump, as we might have expected, got blamed by liberals for everything but pulling the trigger. As this accusation grew increasingly shrill, verging on deranged, probably half of America tuned out the discussion. […]

August 11, 2019 | Global Central Banks Move To Keep The Party Rolling Onward

The recent news that the US Fed, China and many of the global central banks are continuing to make efforts to lower rates and spark further consumer spending and economic activity is reminiscent of the late 2010~2013 global economic recovery efforts.  This was a time when the economy was much slower than current levels and […]

August 11, 2019 | Splat

Mortgages at 0%. More FOMO. Is this stuff possible? The die may have been cast at the end of the week. We shed 24,000 jobs in July. Unemployment hit 5.7% (the States is 3.7%). Fewer people have been working in each of three of the last five months. Last week a 30-year Canada bond hit […]

August 11, 2019 | Larry Kotlikoff on The Big Con

I have a special treat for you. I’m at Camp Kotok, the annual economics/fishing retreat in Maine. Knowing internet connectivity would be scarce here, I asked good friend Larry Kotlikoff to be your guest writer this week. For those who don’t know, Larry is a Boston University economist whose work spans an amazing breadth of […]

August 11, 2019 | Millions of Brexit Coins to Be Minted for October 31 EU Independence Celebration

Plans for “Peace, Prosperity, and Friendship” coin are underway in the UK. They will be minted in time for Brexit Day. The Telegraph reports Millions of Brexit 50p Coins to be Minted in Time for October 31. Millions of special 50p Brexit coins are to be minted and ready to spend in time to mark Britain’s […]

August 10, 2019 | Jeffrey Epstein is Dead – Of Course on Schedule

It did not take long – Epstein is dead as expected. No way would he be allowed to go to trial. He was denied bail after offering to pay for 24-hour guards and wearing a GPS bracelet. He was denied bail in order to ensure he would never go to trial. He was held in […]

August 10, 2019 | All Eyes On Copper

Copper is a fairly strong measure of the strength and capacity of the global economy and global manufacturing.  Right now, Copper has been under quite a bit of pricing pressure and has fallen from levels above $4.50 (near 2011) to levels near $2.55.  Most recently, Copper has rotated higher to levels near $3.25 after President […]

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