ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
July 10, 2025 | Bulgaria Adopts the Euro and Abandons Economic Sovereignty
Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro is a major step toward abandoning its remaining sovereignty. The European Union is akin to a drowning person clinging to anything nearby in an attempt to stay afloat. Bulgaria will become the 21st nation to adopt the euro beginning in January 2026. Protests against the adoption have been ongoing […]
July 9, 2025 | Macro Updates for Dog Days of Summer 2025
Economist Lacy Hunt offers a sobering look at the long-term economic forces shaping the U.S. outlook—and why inflation might already be in retreat, even as the Federal Reserve stays cautious. He argues that we’re in the midst of a disinflationary trend driven by excessive debt, declining velocity of money, and the structural weakening of global […]
July 9, 2025 | Crude Prices Vulnerable Due To Weak Demand And Growing Global Stocks (Especially In The US).
Summary: President Trump got to sign his ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” on Independence Day – July 4th with many positives in the bill. There are still areas of cuts for poor and lower middle income households that will give the Democrats lots of ammunition during the mid-term elections in November 2026. Republicans in swing districts will […]
July 9, 2025 | Europe’s Death Spiral: Now Germany Is the Problem
The flaws in Europe’s financial system — and the eurozone dissolution that will inevitably result — have been obvious for a while. Here’s a list of posts on this topic from the past few years: Can The Euro Be Saved? (4/23/23) Easy Money Makes You Stupid, Europe Edition (6/19/23) Europe is Falling, and France Is Leading the […]
July 9, 2025 | Inflationary Pressures Began After 2015 – Tariffs are a Distraction
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation. The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be […]
July 8, 2025 | When Governments Forget Who They Serve
Civilizations rarely collapse in a single moment -they erode gradually, often in full view. One of the most telling signs? People leaving. Not for better weather, but for better opportunity, greater freedom, and fiscal sanity. Time and again, excessive taxation, bloated bureaucracy, and anti-productivity policies have pushed citizens to vote with their feet. When governments […]
July 8, 2025 | People Flee Taxation
I have written about how Rome fell, and just by mapping the population of Rome, you can see the fate of many current nations and states operating under poor fiscal policies – people sell and just leave. It is different this time because, under socialism, the government has become abusive. When it came to […]
July 8, 2025 | Mindless Flows are Not Loss Protection
Vanguard founder and ETF pioneer, Jack Bogle, warned that if index funds came to own half of the U.S. stock market, it could lead to significant issues, like too much influence concentrated in just a few institutional owners, which he believed would be “a problem” for corporate governance and overall market function. According to the […]
July 8, 2025 | Why Public Funds Should Be Deposited in Publicly-Owned Banks
From JustMoney.org A thriving economy requires that credit flow freely for productive use. But today, a handful of giant banks diverts that flow into an exponentially-growing self-feeding pool of digital profits for themselves. Rather than allowing the free exchange of labor and materials for production, our system of banking and credit has acted as a […]
July 7, 2025 | The Next Shoe to Drop
Happy Monday Morning! Where do we start. This newsletter has been covering several big themes this year. We have long argued that housing starts are in the process of falling off a cliff. Both cities and provinces would start to panic as tax revenues dry up. They’ll be forced to ease development fees and boost […]
July 7, 2025 | Financial Health is a Marathon
Toronto-area home sale prices dropped by 5.4% annually in June–the fifth consecutive year-over-year decline. While lethargy is glaring in condos, detached home sale prices fell the most, with a 6.5% year-over-year drop. The average Toronto June sale price of $1.01 million represented a 17% decline from the February 2022 peak of $1.21 million. Sales for […]
July 7, 2025 | Connectivity is Power
I have been stating all along that attempting to forecast gold in isolation is the equivalent of summoning a witch doctor for cancer. Everything in this world is connected. Civilization unfolds as a synergy of people coming together and the sum is greater than the individual parts. This, too, is what the government is […]
July 6, 2025 | Kerry Lutz: Did Martin Armstrong Predict the Great Decline?
Conversations with the Master Forecaster This book is unlike anything you’ve read before. It’s not another theory — it’s a documented track record of how Martin saw what no one else did: ✅ Sovereign debt implosions ✅ War cycles and geopolitical shifts ✅ The coming collapse of trust in governments ✅ The timeline to 2032 — […]
July 6, 2025 | At The Crossroads
Happy Fourth of July! I hope you’re enjoying a long holiday weekend. That’s what I am doing, so this letter will be a little different. But first, this is a very special Fourth of July. It is the beginning of a year-long celebration of the 250th anniversary of signing the Declaration of Independence. And truly, we […]
July 6, 2025 | T-Bond Bottom Could Herald the Start of Trump’s ‘Golden Era’
We’re all waiting anxiously to see whether Trump’s bold initiatives usher in a golden economic era. If this is going to happen, we should see the Dow Industrial lurch toward 100,000 at any time. Just a few short weeks ago, you could have counted me among the skeptics. It is a habit that has become […]
July 5, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for July 5, 2025
The S&P, NAZ and TSE hit new record highs this week The S&P is up ~30% from the April lows (~7% YTD), the NAZ is up ~40% from the April lows (~8% YTD), and the Toronto Composite is up ~22% from the April lows (~9% YTD). Big Cap Tech has led the rally, with MSFT up ~45% from the […]
July 5, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 5th 2025
The Bottom Line Passage of “The One Beautiful Bill” by Congress late on Thursday and signed by President Trump on Friday is expected to set the stage for North American equity markets to move higher this week. The “Summer Rally” that frequently lasts until the end of July started last week. Consensus for Earnings and […]
July 4, 2025 | Clean Energy Reclaims Market Leadership
At the start of the year, the narrative was straightforward: fossil fuel producers stood to benefit from supportive domestic policy, while clean energy—out of favour politically and commercially—looked set to lag. Markets had priced in a resurgence in drilling, with investor consensus leaning heavily toward traditional hydrocarbons. That view hasn’t aged well. Six months on, […]
July 4, 2025 | Happy Fourth of July
Today marks the anniversary of a revolution—not merely against a king, but against tyranny in all its forms. The Founding Fathers didn’t establish a democracy; they created a constitutional republic, understanding full well that democracy often devolves into mob rule and eventually leads to tyranny. As always, Socrates is tracking the path ahead. The […]
July 3, 2025 | Recession is Here?
David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes recession odds are higher than 2022 despite nobody expecting one, pointing to Fed staff forecasting 50% recession probability and the most downbeat Beige Book since 1980. Rosenberg criticizes Powell for calling the economy “solid” while real GDP has been negative sequentially in 2 of the past […]
July 2, 2025 | US Crude Product Inventories Rise 9.6 Mb Last Week As US Gasoline Consumption Falls Materially
Summary: President Trump wants to sign his ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” on Independence Day – July 4th but the alternative Senate and House bills need to be reconciled and then voted upon again before being sent to the President. Big differences on Medicaid access, the SALT deduction for high tax states (I.e. Blue Democratic States with […]
July 2, 2025 | The Economic Confidence Model v the 80-Year Cyclical Theory
The concept of cycles is becoming accepted in Western culture. Recently, people have been focusing on what they deem the 80-year cyclical theory, which marks a significant shift in humanity. While this may be true, as it takes a few generations to change society, they are not incorporating the additional nuisances associated with the […]
July 2, 2025 | Why the Gold Bull Market Has Legs, in Six Charts And silver…
There are a lot of “xx priced in gold” charts floating around, most of which show that stocks, houses, and pretty much everything else aren’t actually going up in real (i.e., gold-adjusted) terms. They only appear to be in bull markets because we’re measuring them with declining fiat currencies. Here’s an unusual example: The Porsche […]
July 2, 2025 | Chinese Economy Disappointed in June
Leland Miller, China Beige Book CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of China’s economy, impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations, how much leverage the country has over the U.S., and more. Here is a direct video link.
July 1, 2025 | 43% of Americans Near Poverty Place Essential Purchases on Credit
The PYMNTS Intelligence report “Financial Lifestyles Shape Credit Reliance” revealed that American consumers are struggling to afford the basic essentials. Prices have been elevated since the worldwide pandemic shutdown the global economy and have not gone down in a meaningful way. The study found that 43% of American households who are a paycheck away from […]