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September 14, 2022 | Hellbent on Flatlining the Economy

As expected, the Bank of Canada raised interest rates another 75bps this past week. The overnight rate is now up a whopping 300bps year to date, the quickest tightening of monetary policy on a percentage basis since the 1980’s. While there was no additional commentary from BoC Governor Tiff Macklem, the official press release notes, […]

September 14, 2022 | Lower Prices Improve Affordability and Investment Prospects

Well before the rate increases this year, many would-be investment properties had rents insufficient to cover expenses, and owners were subsidizing the negative carry in hopes that capital gains would more than repay their costs over time. This helpful calculator allows us to compare relative numbers. In February 2022, with the average Canadian national sale price of […]

September 13, 2022 | Gun Purchases to be Tracked by Global Organization

The far left is eager to repeal 2A. We are not as free as we think. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO), an organization headquartered all the way in Geneva, will be tracking all gun purchases made on credit. The ISO develops standard documentation that is globally recognized. Gun sales were previously listed as “general […]

September 13, 2022 | The Saretsky Report – September 2022

There’s always lots to talk about in the Vancouver housing market, especially these days. We have plenty of updates this month on interest rates, trigger rates, and the investor/ rental market. Housing activity remains on the same course it’s been on over the past few months. Greater Vancouver home sales dropped 40% y/y in August. […]

September 13, 2022 | EPB Macro: The Compounding Cost of Short-Term Thinking

This video offers an excellent overview of the compounding cost of short-termism and entitlement thinking in a world of corporations and households who expect endless government support and lower taxes. The U.S. Government is facing some serious fiscal and monetary issues that don’t seem to have a positive outcome. In this video we will see […]

September 12, 2022 | World’s Hottest Housing Markets Face Painful Reset

The rapid cooldown in real estate threatens to worsen a global economic downturn and is emerging as a key variable for central bankers who want to tamp down inflation. Here is a direct video link. Also, see The World’s Hottest Housing Markets Face a Painful Reset In Australia and Canada — two of the world’s bubbliest markets […]

September 12, 2022 | Late Queen Elizabeth II to be Removed from Currencies

As in late times, as rulers come and go, the currency changes to reflect the change of power. In ancient Rome, for example, they would announce the coming of a new emperor on the coinage. The Romans used the reverse of their coinage as newspapers announcing victory, great building projects as the opening of the […]

September 11, 2022 | Yet Another Short Squeeze Colors the World Rosy

Leave it to the pundits to tell us what the hell the stock market was celebrating on Friday. The FAANG stocks inspired an inexplicable rampage, just like in the good-old days, and everything seemed right with the world. In the view of those anointed by television producers to make sense of Wall Street’s non-stop nuttiness, […]

September 11, 2022 | Labor Mysteries

Politicians talk about “jobs, jobs, jobs” because a steady income keeps people happy and (mostly) voting for incumbents. Carville once told us, “It’s the economy, stupid,” and it always has been. Economies in recession are usually bad for those in power. Economists care about jobs for a different reason. Labor is a factor of production—part […]

September 11, 2022 | De-Energization Plans in California – Lights Out

California sent out an emergency public notification to warn residents that the power grid was under a strain. Since people are likely unwilling to turn off their power during the summer heat, California is concocting “de-energization” plans. Simply put, California plans to temporarily turn off the power grid in the name of public safety. This […]

September 10, 2022 | When a Clown Moves into a Palace

-Record-high inflation -Proxy war with Russia -Open borders -Loss of energy independence -Looming recession -Reckless spending -Woke agenda -Increase in violent crimes -Polarized nation -Compromised elections -America now seen as vulnerable to enemies The list goes on and on…

September 10, 2022 | Another Hugely Bullish COT Report…Especially in Silver

10 September 2022 — Saturday Yesterday in Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium The gold price began to rally quietly and a bit unevenly from the 6:00 p.m. open in New York on Thursday evening, until 1 p.m. China Standard Time in GLOBEX trading on their Friday morning — and after getting sold lower for about […]

September 10, 2022 | Synchronous Global Housing Downturn

This segment offers a good overview of the global housing downturn. Rather than thinking of it as a housing “crash” though, realists can see it as an inevitable mean reversion cycle following a massive speculative bubble. Home Prices across America are DROPPING FAST, according to New Data from Redfin. Metros like Austin, Dallas, San Jose, […]

September 10, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For September 9, 2022

Trading against sentiment extremes One of my favourite trading questions is, “How much is already in the price?” Market sentiment has recently become very negative, and with good reason; the “news” has been bad, and markets have priced in the bad news with higher interest rates, lower stocks and commodities and a US Dollar at 20-year highs. I think markets have […]

September 9, 2022 | The Time of Separation of the USA is Rapidly Approaching

QUESTION: Marty, is Steve Bannon another pre-election ploy to put a spike in the heart of Republicans for the elections? ZB ANSWER: Of course. Claiming that you raised money and then did not disclose you were paying salaries is really stretching it. You can put every charity in prison for the very same thing. How much […]

September 9, 2022 | The Bank of Canada Says Full Speed Ahead

The Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday. It also stated that the fight to contain inflation is likely to last for some time. You could imagine them saying, “damn the torpedoes, full speed, go ahead.” How much pain will higher rates cause? The Governing Council of the Bank […]

September 9, 2022 | Mortgage Stress is International Saga

Recent Canadian mortgage data compiled by the Bank of Montreal gives a glimpse at the rate of change afoot for many Canadian property owners: Some 20% of all Canadian mortgages outstanding ($260 billion) are variable rate loans taken out near the interest lows at 1.5% into February 2022. With rates on offer now closer to 5%, many […]

September 8, 2022 | Deutsche Bank CEO Says a Recession is Inevitable

Yet another head of the financial system is coming out and warning that a recession is inevitable. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing echoed the words of BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey and blamed the coming recession on the war in Ukraine. “We will no longer be able to avert a recession in Germany. Yet we believe […]

September 8, 2022 | One More Reason to Leave California?

California wants to ban gas powered cars, yet it can’t keep the lights on and the A/C running during a typical summer heat wave. And they want to add millions of EVs to the grid that can’t even support itself with the current demand. Meanwhile the Texas and Arizona power grid are holding up nicely […]

September 8, 2022 | Desjardins: Canada the Most Debt Sensitive Economy in the World

Canada comes into this global downturn with a world-leading real estate bubble (property values accounting for some two-thirds of household net worth) and record-private debt levels at a whopping $7 trillion (households and businesses) in an economy tracking about $2.6 trillion in GDP. A bursting debt bubble in a poorly diversified economy largely dependent on […]

September 7, 2022 | Aggressive Fed-Rate Increases: Is Powell Doing A Volcker?

After being arbitrarily accommodating, then in a relatively sudden fit of increasing administered rates, is the current Fed Chair, Powell, trying to replicate Chairman Volcker’s “success” in ending inflation in 1980? Perhaps, but since the Fed opened its doors in 1914 the US dollar is only worth, well, 3 cents on the dollar – which […]

September 7, 2022 | Debunking the Volcker Myth

The USD Index (DXY shown below since 1980) above 110 this morning is a 20-year high not seen since April 2002. The Euro (58% of the dollar index) is below par and at the lowest since July 2002, while the Japanese Yen (14%) is at the lowest since 1998, and the British Pound (12%) is […]

September 7, 2022 | British Pound Falls to 37-Year

The Bank of England has admitted defeat, admitting they cannot prevent a recession. The pound fell to the lowest level against the USD on Wednesday afternoon after declining 0.64% to $1.145. When asked if the central bank could prevent the next recession, Governor Andrew Bailey was blunt in his answer. “Insofar as the war is […]

September 7, 2022 | Bank of Canada Hikes by 75 Basis Points, Brushes Off Housing Woes, Dip in CPI, Slowing Growth

The Bank of Canada hiked the target for its overnight rate for the fifth time in a row, today by 75 basis points, to 3.25%, the highest since 2008, following the 100-basis-point monster hike at the last meeting, which got everyone’s attention. In the statement, the BoC said that its policy interest rate “will need […]

September 6, 2022 | Millions of Chinese on Lockdown

At least 65 people are dead after a 6.8 magnitude earthquake rocked the province of Sichuan. This comes as 21 million people in Chengdu are confined to their homes as China has placed yet another city on a strict lockdown to adhere to its zero COVID policy. In fact, 65 million people in 33 cities […]

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