ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
December 3, 2024 | The Unbearable Weight of Home Prices
About 15 million, or 37% of Canada’s 40 million people, live in the Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal areas, three of the top seven least affordable cities in America and Canada. Over 25% live in the two least affordable cities—Vancouver and Toronto—where the average sale price in 2024 was 12.7x and 10.7x the median household incomes […]
December 2, 2024 | Backward Looking Recession Indicators
Is the U.S. in the heat of a recession right now? A recent jump in bankruptcies resembles that of the Great Financial Crisis, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, tells Jeremy Szafron, Kitco News anchor, on the sidelines of the New Orleans Investment Conference. Booth discusses a range of topics, including […]
December 2, 2024 | The Rental Boom
Happy Monday morning! We’ve been talking a lot about the weakness in the rental market. Rents are declining in some of Canada’s largest major metros. In Toronto and Vancouver asking rents have dipped close to 10% over the past year. Part of this is from a massive boom in rental housing development. Per RBC, we […]
December 2, 2024 | Why Hunter’s Pardon Can Take Down Biden Himself
QUESTION: Biden said he would not pardon Hunter, and then he did. Was this not a slap in the face to the Democratic Party that will contribute to its breakup, as you have warned? JM ANSWER: It is worse than you think. This could backfire, for it was not a pardon for Hunter as much as it […]
December 1, 2024 | Art of the Collapse, December 2024 Peanut the Squirrel and WW III
Hypersonic missiles are flying, the people (still!) in charge are strangely okay with that…and Peanut the Squirrel dies tragically. New York Authorities Announce Peanut The Squirrel Died Of COVID (Babylon Bee) – Following the public outcry about the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation raiding a local man’s home and euthanizing his pet squirrel who had hundreds of thousands […]
December 1, 2024 | Cut $2 Trillion from the U.S. Budget…or What?
Let’s hope Musk and Ramaswamy have been paying close attention to David Stockman’s ten-part series on how to cut the U.S. budget before America spends its way into bankruptcy. Stockman was Reagan’s budget director in 1981-85 and is eminently qualified to spell out the tough reforms needed to force the U.S. to live within its means. He […]
December 1, 2024 | Canada’s Migrant Crisis Costs Rise to $16 Billion Annually
I have warned that there will be an exodus of migrants fleeing the United States for Canada in the wake of Trump’s presidency. The Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada said that the sheer volume of asylum seekers has spiked to the highest on record, with the number of cases rising from 60,000 annually to […]
November 30, 2024 | Trading Desk Notes for November 30, 2024
Trump shocks markets: he will hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs on ALL exports On Monday afternoon, November 25, Trump announced that on his first day as President, he would levy 25% tariffs on ALL imports from Canada and Mexico – if they did not halt the flow of illegal migrants and dangerous drugs into the […]
November 30, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday November 30th 2024
The Bottom Line Focus this week is on fiscal fourth quarter results released by Canada’s largest banks. Economic News This Week October U.S. Construction Spending released at 10:00 AM EST on Monday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.1% gain in September. November ISM Manufacturing PMI released t 10:00 AM EST on Monday is […]
November 29, 2024 | Trump Threats of Tariffs Worry Canadians
President-elect Trump doubled down on his threat to impose tariffs on imports to the U.S. This time he focused on two countries — Mexico and Canada — with a statement that he would put a 25 percent tariff on imports. How should Canada counter these threats? This week Trump posted: “On January 20th, as one […]
November 29, 2024 | Record Valuations and Most Bulls Since 1987
The S&P 500 (26% concentrated in the five most expensive tech companies) is trading at 38x smoothed 10-year earnings, just marginally below the all-time high of 43x briefly seen at the 2000 tech bubble top and much higher than the previous bubble top in 1929 (Shiller PE ratio below since 1870). But then, most are […]
November 28, 2024 | Wong: Economy Not Strong, Unemployment Likely to Surge
About that Trump trade… The last time today’s expert was on the program back in July, she was concerned about rising unemployment. Is she still as worried about it as we prepare to enter a new year with a new Administration taking over? To find out, we have the good fortune to talk today with […]
November 28, 2024 | Mexico Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs on US
Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum is asking Trump to use a bit more common sense when threatening to implement tariffs before a tit-for-tat game ensues. “One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” Sheinbaum said. It would come as no surprise if the […]
November 28, 2024 | Crude Oil Retreats US$2/b On Israel/Hezbollah Ceasefire.
President elect Trump is moving quickly on his tariff plan with a threat on social media to tax Canada and Mexico 25% and add 10% to China tariffs. His argument is that he needs support on keeping drugs out of the US and to stop the migrant invasion. If his need was economic he would […]
November 27, 2024 | Trump: Secure the Borders or Pay Tariffs
Donald Trump wants to ensure that America’s neighbors to the north and south help him fight the migrant crisis, announcing that he will punish both Canada and Mexico with a 25% tariff on goods until migrants stop crossing into America from their lands. Justin Trudeau reportedly called Donald Trump within two hours of his […]
November 27, 2024 | Recession Watch: Bad News From Around the World
China From the Kobeissi Letter: China’s consumer confidence index dropped to 86 points in August, near the lowest in 30 years. Over the last 3 years, consumer confidence in China is down ~ 50 points. Such a drop in consumer assessment of the Chinese economy has almost never been seen before. Foreign firms are also […]
November 26, 2024 | Regulating Crypto Under Premise of Climate Change
Governments are enacting subtle regulations over crypto. Texas has come out to demand that crypto miners report their power usage to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The state claims they need this information to regulate its volatile power grid. Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT) Chairman Thomas Gleeson stated that miners must provide […]
November 26, 2024 | The Hard Math of Election Promises
2024 was about election promises. 2025 will be about the math of delivering. This segment looks at tariffs, taxes and spending cuts. With hedge fund manager Scott Bessent poised to be the next U.S. Treasury Secretary under the incoming Trump administration, ambitious plans are emerging to slash the national deficit-to-GDP ratio. But can they succeed? […]
November 26, 2024 | Health Prepping: How to Offset All That Sitting
By now we’ve all seen at least one article titled “Sitting is the New Smoking.” That’s a clever title that instantly engages the reader. It’s also apparently true. People who sit for most of the day tend to have all kinds of circulatory and metabolic problems that frequently end up killing them. Here’s an overview […]
November 25, 2024 | Keystone XL Pipeline Revival?
Do you recall when America was energy independent? One must only think back a few short years before Joe Biden entered the White House and suppressed the nation’s ability to generate energy in the name of climate change. There were increased regulatory burdens, halts on new oil and gas leases, and a shift to […]
November 25, 2024 | On The Edge of World War 3
So in his last act before shuffling off the stage, the US president … greenlights Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia. The latter then fires — for the first time ever — a hypersonic ICBM capable of delivering a nuclear payload to pretty much anywhere in a matter of minutes. And just like […]
November 25, 2024 | Capital Preservation
Happy Monday Morning! Last week we penciled a newsletter titled Wildly Offside, in which we highlighted new research from the Parliamentary Budget officer. As we had noted below, The PBO had previously reported that Canada needs to build another 1.3 million homes by 2030 to close the housing gap — and today it says the revised […]
November 25, 2024 | About That: Why is the Loonie So Low?
The Canadian dollar is now at its lowest point since the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, and analysts predict it could fall below 70 cents US in the coming months. Andrew Chang explains why the dollar’s value has fallen so much and the impact it could have on everything from travel plans to interest rates […]
November 25, 2024 | Disrupt, Defund, Deport, Deny, Destroy
“At home, fellow citizens, you best know whether we have done well or ill. The suppression of unnecessary offices, of useless establishments and expenses enabled us to discontinue our internal taxes. These covering our land with officers, and opening our doors to their intrusions, had already begun that process of domiciliary vexation which, once entered, […]
November 24, 2024 | Rhyming History: Rome’s Hyperinflation
As the old saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.” Which means there are plenty of lessons to be learned from our ancestors’ screw-ups. This post is the first in a series covering some of humanity’s more useful cautionary tales. The logical starting point is of course ancient Rome, with its many disturbing […]