- the source for market opinions


February 21, 2019 | America: 52nd in Freedom

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – Let’s see, Dear Reader, what were we talking about? We are on a walkabout… looking at others in order to see ourselves. And, oh yes… the gist of the last few days’ conversation was that you should be more generous… and more open-minded. You should be ready to give your money, your […]

February 20, 2019 | How Mob Rule Comes to America

GUALFIN, ARGENTINA – We are a-wandering… searching high and low… looking for ourselves. Yes, that is what travel is all about: trying to find out who you are.   Rule of the Mob And we begin by looking in our back pocket. There, we have a copy of Polybius’ history of what he calls the […]

February 19, 2019 | We’re Losing Our Originario “War”

I love to go a-wandering along the mountain track. And as I go, I love to sing, my knapsack on my back. Val-deri, val-dera, val-deri, val-dera-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha. – “The Happy Wanderer” SALTA, ARGENTINA – Come with us, Dear Reader… We are about to launch on an excursion. We will swing our arms gaily… and bend our […]

February 15, 2019 | U.S. Stocks Are Playing Russian Roulette

SALTA, ARGENTINA – We watch. We wait. We wonder. “The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation,” wrote Hemingway. “The second is war…” he continued. And the third is concrete. We’ll probably see all of them in the years ahead.   Russian Roulette Top macroeconomists are calling for a recession “before the end of […]

February 8, 2019 | Should We “Abolish Billionaires”?

A physician cannot heal the sick if he is ignorant of the causes of certain conditions of the body, nor can a statesman help his fellow citizens if he cannot follow how, why or by what process each event had developed. – Polybius PARIS – Whenever you see the “we should do this” or “we […]

February 7, 2019 | Who’s America’s True Enemy?

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We warned readers. This week would require a little extra effort. We are challenging one of our most deeply held instincts – the drive to take sides. As expected, many readers sided against your editor yesterday. They were generally in agreement that he is an SOB. But they couldn’t agree on what kind of […]

February 1, 2019 | Is America Really the “Good Guy”?

RANCHO SANTANA – The week went by so fast! Stocks got a big boost on Wednesday, on news of an impending trade deal with China. Then too, Jerome Powell announced that if anything was going to ruin the party on Wall Street, it wouldn’t be the Fed. Rate hikes are off the table… for now. […]

January 30, 2019 | On the Front Lines in Nicaragua

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – We got here yesterday, after the usual travel indignities. What we like about Ol’ Billy, our daughter’s blind dog, is the way he bears his afflictions with grace, which is the best any of us can do. He asks for no special treatment. He doesn’t expect to board the aircraft first or […]

January 29, 2019 | Investors Will Fight This Trend… And Lose

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – Stocks got off to a rough start yesterday. Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar reported punk numbers; investors took it as a sign that the world economy is slowing. That’s our guess too.   Night Is Day After a 38-year boom, the fundamentals have reversed. Day is night; night is day. From lower […]

January 28, 2019 | The Real Problem With AOC’s Tax Hike

DELRAY BEACH, FLORIDA – Americans seem to be getting on board the “tax the rich” train faster than they can sell tickets for it. We thought it would take at least a couple of years… and a recession… to bring them around. But no.   Rich Pariahs Envy is readily disguised as “virtue signaling,” and […]

January 25, 2019 | How Venezuela Reached the Edge of Chaos

BALTIMORE – We are living in an Era of Busted Dreams. The Bolivarian Revolution is just one of them. When we left you yesterday, it looked like the government of Venezuela was in a fight for its life. The Venezuelan economy is falling apart, with 1,300,000% inflation and a mass exodus of the population. And […]

January 24, 2019 | Venezuela’s Great Dream Was Always a Scam…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – “Soldiers revolt…” “Millions on verge of starvation…” “Biggest mass exodus in history of the Americas…” What a glorious show! Right before our eyes… a real-life, real-time experiment… …all the conceits… the pretensions… the balderdash… the claptrap… …all laid out for the world to see. And now, stretched out in front of us […]

January 23, 2019 | The Billionaire Backlash Is Coming

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – It pays to be one of the elite. Not only do you ride in first class and live in a better zip code, you get richer, too. Bloomberg is on the story: David Rubenstein has doubled his fortune since 2009. Jamie Dimon has more than tripled his net worth. Stephen Schwarzman has […]

January 18, 2019 | Donald Trump and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The intellectuals are laying the groundwork. That is, they’re digging the foundations for an extraordinary structure – a tower of debt higher than any ever seen in world history. The primary architect? Paul Krugman? Jerome Powell? Joseph Stiglitz? Nope. Not an architect at all… but a politician.   Low-Interest People It’s none […]

January 17, 2019 | Trillion-Dollar Deficits From Here to Eternity

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We are on our way to the future. Not that we know what will happen, but we’ve been looking at the broad patterns of history. Most likely, they will repeat themselves… and surprise everyone. Over the last few days, we’ve looked at three of them. First, stocks go up and down in […]

January 15, 2019 | Mr. Market Will Have the Last Laugh

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Stocks went nowhere yesterday. Congress and the White House didn’t get anywhere, either, in their attempts to resolve the shutdown impasse. With 10 inches of snow on the ground, nowhere seemed like the right place to go. And nowhere is where most people end up anyway. But our aim is to go […]

January 8, 2019 | Trump Is Trapped

BALTIMORE – Stocks advanced a little yesterday. Investors were said to be hopeful about the upcoming trade talks with the Chinese. With a little luck, President Trump will talk to Chinese President Xi Jinping about the ongoing trade war. He’ll announce a big victory – just as he did following talks with North Korea last […]

January 7, 2019 | One Mistake Dooms Investors…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Wow… another big up day for the Dow on Friday. The index had climbed 747 points, or 3.3%, by the time the closing bell rang. Analysts credited a strong jobs market and a weak Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said that last month, twice as many jobs had been created […]

January 3, 2019 | The One Thing You Need in This Market

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We looked back yesterday. Today, we will look ahead. As we will see, the past casts its shadow over the future. Bloomberg is on the case: Key Fed Yield Gauge Points to Rate Cuts for First Time Since 2008 Some of the most accurate gauges of economic health are pricing in lower Fed […]

January 2, 2019 | What We Learned From 2018…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Yesterday, we awoke to the sound of sirens. After a week at the family farm, we had come back to the city for New Year’s Eve. But hardly had the new year begun when the echoes of the old year filled the streets and alleyways. Over the holidays, a mental defective had […]

December 27, 2018 | The Baby Boomer Survival Guide – Part 1

What should you do if you are running out of time and money? This is the question we get from readers over 50… over 60… and sometimes, over 70. We baby boomers were famously saying “Na… na… na… Live for today.” Now, it’s tomorrow. And many of us – often through no fault of our […]

December 21, 2018 | What to Do When Stocks Fall

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The last days of 2018 are dwindling down. Today, the sun reaches its lowest point on the horizon, in the Northern Hemisphere. And stocks continue to sink.   Partial Shutdown One reason cited for the continued selloff on Wall Street was the looming “shutdown” of the federal government. The Washington Post is on […]

December 20, 2018 | What Trump and Powell Do Next…

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Well, we were wrong. We figured the Fed would pause now. Instead, it went ahead with its rate hike and suggested it would pause in 2019. This was widely expected by the markets, if not by us. Early yesterday, investors guessed – as we did – that the Fed would back off. […]

December 19, 2018 | No Matter What the Fed Does, We All Lose

Does anybody really know what time it is Does anybody really care If so I can’t imagine why We’ve all got time enough to cry – Chicago BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – We got ahead of ourselves yesterday. We were waiting for the big Fed announcement on a rate hike. But what happened? No trumpets. No bells. […]

December 18, 2018 | The Fed Has the Shakes

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Another big down day for the Dow. Yesterday, the index took another 2% hit… But, in keeping with our Advent Season optimism, if wealth is a burden, investors must have breathed a sigh of relief; they had $600 billion less of a burden at the end of the day than at the […]

Next Page »