- the source for market opinions


June 18, 2018 | Ike was Right!

  POITOU, FRANCE – We wait for the world to fall apart. The Dow is still more than 1,000 points below its high; so we presume the primary trend is down. Treasury yields – on the 10-year note – are near 3%… twice what they were two years ago. So we presume the primary trend […]

June 15, 2018 | Trump’s Not Like Ike

POITOU, FRANCE – Yesterday came word that the European Central Bank followed through, just like the Fed. After $2.7 trillion in “stimulus,” it has officially taken its foot off the pedal. No more bond purchases by the end of the year. It follows the Fed in returning to “normal” monetary policy. The announcement scarcely made […]

June 14, 2018 | Were We Wrong About Everything?

POITOU, FRANCE – Well, it looks like we were wrong about everything. Everything. The Fed. Donald J. Trump. The stock market. The economy. Even the weather. Yesterday, we looked at the sky and forecast rain. Instead, the sun came out. Then, the Fed raised rates. Donald Trump was proclaimed a great statesman. The economy was […]

June 13, 2018 | Why the Elites Hate Trump

POITOU, FRANCE – What a rollicking good time we’ve had these past few days. The G7… the North Korean summit… Canada’s “backstabber” chief… trade wars… U.S. midterm elections… Did any generation before us enjoy so much cheap entertainment?   Place in Hell The highlight was probably Peter Navarro’s comment, referring to Canadian Prime Minister Justin […]

June 12, 2018 | Marriage: The Original Win-Win

POITOU, FRANCE – You can divide the world’s people – all its bumblers, fumblers, fools, and saints – into two categories. There are the decent people who go about their business trying to improve their lives by honest toil, invention, forbearance, and luck. And there are the scoundrels. All of us are one or the […]

June 11, 2018 | The True Mission of Trump’s Team

PARIS – Last week, it was war with Europe. This week, it’s bombs over Toronto. Plans are being drawn up for two walls. One across the southern border to keep Mexicans out. And one across the 49th parallel to keep Canadian products out. According to the indictment, both nations are purloining American jobs.   Dream […]

June 8, 2018 | What Will Kill the American Empire

All earthly empires die. Is this the end? Only God knows. – St. Augustine, 413 AD POITOU, FRANCE – Yesterday, in advance of the G7 pow-wow this weekend, Donald Trump tweeted his position on trade: If we charge a country ZERO to sell their goods, and they charge us 25, 50 or even 100 percent […]

June 7, 2018 | America’s Unseen Transformation…

Vernacular: A vernacular, or vernacular language, is the language or variety of a language used in everyday life by the common people of a specific population. It is distinguished from a standard, national, or literary language or a lingua franca, used to facilitate communication across a large area. POITOU, FRANCE – Oh, Dear Reader, remember this […]

June 5, 2018 | President Trump’s Real Test

PARIS – Well, it’s all settled. This is the greatest economy that the world has ever seen. The president said so himself on Twitter over the weekend: Tax CUTS are working. America is WINNING BIG under President Trump! The Nasdaq hit a new record high – pushed up by its favorite tech stocks. And the latest jobs report tells […]

June 4, 2018 | Trump’s “War” on Europe

PARIS – “Trump declares war on Europe,” says today’s headline in Le Monde. We came over on the ferry from Southern Ireland. It takes longer than flying. But we have our car here, which makes it easier to get around – especially when the trains aren’t running. “They got their benefits fair and square. They don’t […]

June 1, 2018 | Why Trump Is President

The show is Trump, and it is sold-out performances everywhere. – Donald J. Trump, Playboy magazine, 1990 YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Commentators and political analysts have consistently misread our president. They try to understand him using traditional political categories. Is he a conservative or a liberal? Is he a Republican or a Democrat? A big spender or a […]

May 31, 2018 | How the Government Became a Deep State Puppet

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – When you’ve got a chainsaw, you cut down a tree. And when you’ve got control of monetary and fiscal policy… you go to work on an economy. In both cases, you leave them in pieces.   Knuckleheaded Experiment The difference between the next crash and the last two is that this time, […]

May 29, 2018 | We’re Living in a Deep State Empire

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – You may be wondering what our discussion last week of “Bad Guy” Theoryhad to do with our beat… money. We wondered, too. We used the Memorial Day holiday to figure it out. So let us begin by peeking into the future: Stocks collapse (expected, by us, before the end of the year)… Recession […]

May 25, 2018 | The Day America Became The “Bad Guy”?

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – There being nothing serious to report from the financial front… …we go back to our sideline job: irritating our dear readers. Slimy and Hideous Yes, “Bad Guy” Theory is on the table. We were set to heave it over the side, like a fish too small to meet the legal limit. But […]

May 24, 2018 | Introducing “Bad Guy” Theory

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Nothing much to report from the markets… So we gird our loins, put on our armor, and go into battle. We’re anticipating a fight.   Power Corrupts Has Israel become a “bad guy”? we asked yesterday. Iran, the U.S… Who’s bad and who’s good? Our guess yesterday was that power really does corrupt. […]

May 23, 2018 | World Banks Are “Swimming Naked”

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The Dow turned down a bit yesterday. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 3.07%. As long as neither revisits its recent top and bottom, respectively, we presume the “primary trend” for both the bond market and the stock market is down. Everything else is just noise.   Bad Guy Syndrome We have […]

May 22, 2018 | Who Sanctions America?

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The Dow jumped over 25,000 yesterday. But unless (and until) it can beat the January top of 26,616, we will presume that the primary trend, which we detailed last Friday, is down. And since primary trends tend to last a long time, we further presume that stocks may be set to slide for […]

May 21, 2018 | Are Americans The “Bad Guys”?

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The press was abuzz this weekend with comments on the killings in Gaza. We do not normally take an interest in the affairs of the region. It’s none of our business… there’s nothing we can do anything about… and since Israel has been the focus of so much of the media’s attention […]

May 18, 2018 | Higher Rates For the Rest of Your Life

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Our screen this morning is showing the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note with a yield of 3.11% – further evidence that the credit cycle has turned. Everything else is noise. Primary Trend We got the idea from the late, great Richard Russell. He was already an old-timer when we met him; he had […]

May 17, 2018 | When This Happens, Buy

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – It is a typical May day here in Ireland. The temperature is 48 degrees this morning. It is cloudy and gray. We are staying over here in Youghal… pronounced “yawl”… so that we can keep up with our renovation project. Scaffold is up. The floors and roofing have been taken off so […]

May 16, 2018 | Is Capitalism a Killer?

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – First, we note that the 10-year T-note yield is holding above 3%. It is on its way to 4%, we think, and will herald the final destruction of the great, fake boom of 2009–2018. Meanwhile…   —   Death by Capitalism “You say capitalism never killed anyone… But who do you think […]

May 15, 2018 | Tied to a Park Bench, Covered in Motor Oil

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Yesterday, a small landmark was passed. A tweet this morning: For the first time since the financial crisis, the 3-month Treasury yield has surpassed the yield on the S&P 500. Small investors look for big, risky gains. The big money aims for small, safe ones. As long as the big money could […]

May 14, 2018 | Trump Didn’t Destroy the Working Class

  PORTLAW, IRELAND – Why was Donald Trump elected? What kind of accident was this? The liberal intelligentsia has been trying to come up with an answer – not just any answer, but one that accomplishes two very important purposes. It must point the finger of blame at someone else… not itself. And the answer […]

May 12, 2018 | Good Week for the Deep State

PORTLAW, IRELAND – It’s been a good week for stocks… and a good week for the Deep State. On Wall Street, it almost seemed like the good ol’ days, as the Dow rose to a seven-week high and inflation readings remained low. Investors thought they saw more good things coming. Deep State stocks were winners. […]

May 10, 2018 | How to Get Ahead in the Swamp

PORTLAW, IRELAND – Yesterday, we took a look at what was happening in Argentina. A shorthand version: Argentina seems like it is on the way up… President Mauricio Macri really is draining the swamp – or is trying to. But after 70 years of Peronism, there is a lot of swamp to drain. And the slithery […]

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