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March 23, 2020 | Panicked Coronavirus Response Show Stark Contrast to 1919 Flu Outbreak

And I looked, and behold, a pale horse! And its rider’s name was Death, and Hell followed him. And they were given authority over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by wild beasts of the earth. – Revelation 6:8 SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – This morning… […]

March 16, 2020 | Federal Reserve Announces Near-Zero Rate Cut In Effort to Curb Coronavirus Effects

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Hunker down. Keep your distance. Sit tight. Hit the pause button. We will return to the money world tomorrow. But, in short, it is evolving as expected. The bubble has developed a big hole. The feds are trying to plug it with fake money. Here is the latest from the Wall Street […]

February 25, 2020 | Coronavirus Continues to Show Weaknesses in the Global Economy

RANCHO SANTANA, NICARAGUA – Yesterday, we watched the screen. The Dow was down 850 points at 11 a.m. By noon, it had lost another 50 points. By 1 p.m., it was down 1,000 points. Now it was getting people’s attention. By the close of the trading day, the market sell-off had become mainstream news. CNBC: […]

January 31, 2020 | Coronavirus Pandemic Sparks Fear in the World Economy

DENVER, COLORADO – Golden, Colorado is home to two important institutions: the Coors Brewery… and the Colorado School of Mines. One of our sons is here enjoying both of them; we came to see him yesterday. Golden in the morning Three of the passengers on the plane, one Chinese, two American, were wearing face masks. […]

January 23, 2020 | The Long and Winding Road to Bankruptcy

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – What next? CNBC: Stocks ended lower Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control told Reuters that a traveler from China was diagnosed with the first U.S. case of coronavirus, in Seattle. The Dow closed down 152 points after falling as much as 200 points. The S&P 500 shed nearly 0.3%, while the […]

January 10, 2020 | We Need to Decipher Who Our Real Enemies Are

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – The Dow hit 29,000 this morning. Wow! The president tweeted yesterday: We don’t know what we’re doing wrong… but we’re going to sign up for a 409K… whatever that is. The Trump Pattern What a market! And this was just after President Trump showed how easy it would be to cause a […]

November 29, 2019 | Central Banks Create Money out of Nowhere

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND – Last week, while all eyes were on the impeachment show, the feds increased the nation’s debt by about $20 billion. Who will pay it? When? How? No one asked. During the British election of 2017, Theresa May famously said “there is no magic money tree.” But both the Federal Reserve and the […]

November 8, 2019 | Our Doom Index Hasn’t Been This High Since 2008

It doesn’t matter whether it comes in one year or four. If you don’t start preparing now, you will maybe do better while the economy continues to do okay, but whatever gain you get from that will be overwhelmed by problems with your investments in the downturn. – Jeffrey Gundlach YOUGHAL, IRELAND – “Big news […]

October 25, 2019 | Our Financial Situation Could Always Be Worse

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Yahoo Finance reports: Elizabeth Warren has a plan for everything. Some of those plans are expensive. With Warren emerging as a front-runner in the Democratic presidential contest, Yahoo Finance tallied the cost of her plans. Altogether, the Massachusetts senator’s agenda would require $4.2 trillion per year in new federal spending, and a […]

October 18, 2019 | The Feds Interfere in Markets and Multiply Corruption Opportunities

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The fix is in. President Trump has surrounded himself with grifters, hustlers, and opportunists – Rudy Giuliani, Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross, et al. One of them was bound to notice. Trump’s tweets regularly send the stock market hundreds of points in one direction or another. Surely there was a way to trade […]

September 19, 2019 | Democracy Doomed the Money System

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Yesterday, the Federal Reserve did as expected, cutting its key lending rate by another 25 basis points (0.25%). This was not what the president was hoping for. Yahoo Finance: President Donald Trump on Wednesday harshly rebuked the Federal Reserve, accusing the central bank and Fed Chair Jerome Powell of having no “guts” […]

September 14, 2019 | All Major Economies Are Caught in an Inflate-or-Die Trap

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – We’re exploring the old adage: What goes around comes around. And what we see coming around almost everywhere is inflation. We make haste to explain that we’re not talking about common consumer price inflation, but about inflation of the money supply, which could show up almost anywhere. More Fake Money In the […]

September 7, 2019 | Markets Revert to the Mean Eventually

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – This week, we’ve been working our way down the very short list of things we think we know. At first glance, our second lesson, described yesterday, does not seem very helpful. “Nobody knows anything,” may be Gospel Truth. But it doesn’t tell you what movie to watch or what stock to buy. Still, […]

September 5, 2019 | The Internet Age Distorted the Meaning of Wealth

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The ferry from Cherbourg was calm, almost eerily silent all the way to Dublin. Truck drivers sat drinking their beer. Retired couples collected their trays and ate their dinners. Some chatted in French. A few spoke Polish with the ship’s crew. Most were Irish, speaking with each other softly. It was nothing […]

August 22, 2019 | Our Fake-Money Bubble Will Burst

The mills of the gods grind slowly, but they grind small. – Sextus Empiricus POITOU, FRANCE – The year moves ahead. Here in France, leaves are already beginning to dry, curl, and fall to the ground. A gentle breeze shuffles them along, driving them into corners and under bushes. Last night was cold. We were […]

August 19, 2019 | Negative Interest Rates Are Not Normal

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark. – William Shakespeare, Hamlet POITOU, FRANCE – Every week, we reach new heights of weirdness: …the worldwide total of debt trading at negative interest rates rose to $17 trillion… …nearly 15% of S&P 500 companies no longer earn enough money to even cover the interest on their loans… […]

August 18, 2019 | Inflation Has Eroded the U.S. and Chinese Economies

One day, the China trade imbalance is such a national emergency that you’re willing to disrupt hundreds of billions in world trade and risk a global recession to set it right. The next, you call it off because it might interfere with the Christmas shopping season. That was the big news yesterday. Once again, Trump […]

August 13, 2019 | The Fed Should Let the Market Set Rates

POITOU, FRANCE – Yesterday, stocks traded down. Investors are getting spooked by high bond prices (low yields). MarketWatch: The yield for the longest-dated Treasury bond is now a hair’s breadth away from plumbing its lowest level in history. Investors said the $22 trillion U.S. government debt market was now approaching this key milestone on a […]

August 6, 2019 | Why We’re Keeping Our “Crash Alert” Flag Up

POITOU, FRANCE – Watch out, Dear Reader, this could be a tough week for investors. Investor’s Business Daily reports: Dow Jones futures sold off sharply Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as China’s yuan tumbled to a record low. That follows a tough week for the current stock market rally as new […]

July 23, 2019 | It’s the Era of Inflate or Die

  PARIS – Oh boy… Paris is in for a real scorcher. The temperature is rising… and is expected to crest at 108 degrees on Thursday, a new record. Tourists wilt. The streets are empty. Shutters are closed against the sun during the day… and open wide for whatever cool air the night offers. We’re […]

July 19, 2019 | Two Reasons the Feds Can’t Sit Still

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Once again, a beautiful summer day here in Ireland. But we have no time to smell the flowers. It’s Inflate or Die, the new era that began, more or less officially, in May of this year. It was then that the Fed abandoned any pretense of sensible monetary policy and looked for […]

July 12, 2019 | The Federal Reserve Continues to “Mend” the Economy

In this hard world we have to earn before we spend. – John James Cowperthwaite, British civil servant and former financial secretary of Hong Kong YOUGHAL, IRELAND – The week is ending as it began, with a cacophony of numbskulls. Yesterday, one of them – speaking to his empty-headed brethren – gave out more wrong-headed, […]

July 9, 2019 | Why Everyone Wants More Inflation

  DUBLIN – Our little galaxy pals were scratching their juicer heads. Negative rates… financialization… backasswards time, something from nothing… They are affronts to God and Nature… breaches of the laws of physics and the universe… and invitations to economic catastrophe. Why would anyone believe they could stimulate an economy with fake money? Or that a small […]

July 5, 2019 | Main Street Relies on Rate Cuts

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – It’s a beautiful day here in Ireland. People are out and about, wearing shorts and T-shirts. “This is an Irish summer,” a carpenter explained. Sunny skies. Flowers in bloom. Top temperature: 66 degrees. Construction Site We moved into our house a week ago. But it is still a construction site. Every morning […]

June 28, 2019 | Inflation Has Distorted The U.S. Markets

PORTLAW, IRELAND – Yesterday, once again, the Dow rose in the morning – on news that a deal with China was 90% done – and fell later, as investors realized that they couldn’t believe anything that came out of Washington. Meanwhile, the president of the United States of America says he’d rather have a European […]

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