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July 14, 2019 | Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar

We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is interesting is the background stuff; as usual. We […]

July 12, 2019 | Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar

Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar: We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is […]

July 2, 2019 | USD/CAD vs. Oil: Maybe a top in oil? Will CAD follow?

The oil price rally may be complete….we are bearish on oil…daily view below: If oil breaks again, will the Canadian dollar follow? Below shows USD/CAD vs. Oil Price (inverted in red–dotted line) 4-hour basis… We remain long USD/CAD…

June 15, 2019 | Has the Buck Bottomed? We Don’t Know, but a Plausible Alternative Says Yes….

The buck has powered higher, well above our target today.  And it now leaves open the key question: Have we seen a dollar low; i.e. is this the trend move to 102 we have been targeting longer term now underway? Effectively, we defined the low in our “alternative”  or secondary view we shared earlier in the week.  […]

June 8, 2019 | USD/JPY Setup For a Big Trend Move Higher?

After a sharp rally from the low at 104.98; it appears we have seen yet another irregular flat correction; i.e. A-B-C; with Wave C made up of a five-wave impulse decline: [i]-[v]. Interesting this impulse Wave C ended bang on the 61.8% retracement from the swing high 112.39 to the swing low 104.98. Worth a […]

May 31, 2019 | EUR/USD Hourly: Equality Extension into Today’s Low….So Far…

This chart outlines a standard A-B-C zig zag correction; at least so far. A couple things of interest: Absolute equality; i.e. of Wave A = Wave C, comes in at 1.1115; today’s low was 1.1114—pretty close. Secondly, Wave A was 40 hours in duration, while Wave C was 37 hours in duration. Just maybe, the […]

May 22, 2019 | AUD/USD Hourly View: Confluence support at 0.6860 level…time to go long?

Excellent risk/reward potential here it seems.

May 9, 2019 | US-China “Trade Deal” Trade: Long AUD/JPY

Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play) If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we […]

April 18, 2019 | Oil Daily: Another Top? We Have Equality…

In the last month or so, we have managed to call at least four of the last zero tops in oil. But we now have an interesting setup—it could be equality; i.e. whereby the correction in three waves (zig zag here) and the first (A) and last wave (C) are equal in length. That is […]

April 11, 2019 | Turkey vs. South Africa. Which Country Do You Think Has a Brighter Future?

Our bet is on Turkey, despite the near-term concerns. South Africa seems on the path to be the next Zimbabwe unless major changes are made soon. Take a look at how the South African Rand has outperformed the Turkish lira since 2008. A nice symmetrical A-B-C corrective pattern with “equality”; i.e. A Wave = C […]

April 4, 2019 | EUR/USD 240-min…Time For a Correction Higher?

Minimum playable target on a “correction” would be to the 38.2% retrace level or 1.1283. Note the prior Wave [iv] as resistance so far…

March 27, 2019 | EUR/USD 240-min View…Looking for a Test of at Least…

We have been short EUR/USD from 1.1436 back on 3/20/19…we expect a test of 1.1174 minimum…peeling some profit off at the 78.6% level—1.1233—if we get there.

March 19, 2019 | GBP/USD 540-min – Expanding Flat Pattern?

It is possible we have completed an A-B-C expanding flat pattern ; which traces out Wave (B). We are short, as the reward seems skewed to the downside.

March 15, 2019 | US $ Index Hourly…a Bit Lower Than Higher?

Looking for a push down toward the 78.6% retrace level at 96.225…we want to get long the dollar on any signs of reversal higher…

March 8, 2019 | Oil and Stocks Working Lower Together…

We remain short oil and looking for a push down toward 52 minimum target…a big dump in stocks and we likely see oil to 50-48 level…correlation as risk asset remains tight…

March 7, 2019 | EUR/USD Daily Wave View

The pair is testing the longer-term 61.8% retracement level today going back at 1.1183…momentum still pointing lower. Our next Fib target comes in at 1.0810 or 78.6% retracement…remaining short and will be sending a stop adjustment to lock in more profit.

February 27, 2019 | If You Like Oil Short Here – You Should Probably Like USD/CAD Long…

Below is USD/CAD daily (black bars) versus WTI crude futures (price inverted red line so you can better visualize the ongoing tight correlation between the two price series. If oil breaks down here (red line moves higher), this correlation indicates $-CAD is likely to follow.

February 20, 2019 | USD/ZAR (S. African rand) 240-min View….

Needless to say this trade has been our fav this year. Note the pair rallied right into key 78.6% resistance on the SA budget news. We are still long after taking some profits along the way. Looking to add again on a decent Wave-2 correction…

January 19, 2019 | Gold (GLD etf) Daily: Resistance at the 61.8% Retrace Level…

GLD (gold etf) has been rejected at the 61.8% retrace level. Watching for another try, then failure as a possible short trade setup.

January 18, 2019 | US Long Bond View

A zig zag A-B-C with the C-wave rally coincident with stocks selling off and putting in a fresh low…our guess…

January 17, 2019 | US Stocks vs. AUD/USD: Stocks into a Near-Term Key Resistance Level…

We have seen a nice positive correlation of late between US stocks and AUD/USD. Stocks are heading into a key retracement level at 2626….so; a break in stocks and Aussie should follow…

December 22, 2018 | Deflationary Bust in the Making? A Dollar Risk Bid Likely Follows…

There is a rising consensus which says: The Fed is engineering a deflationary bust.  We agree.  But we also believe the Fed is consistently behind the curve and a US recession is likely in the cards no matter.

December 18, 2018 | Dow Theory Confirmation and a Bear Market?

The recent new highs made back in late September were confirmed, based on Dow Theory; i.e. Industrials were confirmed by Transports. Is this when bear markets begin? Hmmm….stay tuned.

December 14, 2018 | USD/CAD Hourly – Still like the Short Side…

Still liking USD/CAD short setup…though CAD has a way of disappointing…symmetrical internal A-B-C patterns confluence at 1.3400-level.

December 13, 2018 | USD/JPY One More Time…Breaking on News

We keep fiddling with this trade…short USD/JPY…we have an extension into the 113.70; which ended up as today’s high…other extensions in the neighborhood. News from Japan: TOKYO, Dec 14 (Reuters) – Japanese manufacturing activity has expanded in December, a preliminary survey showed on Friday, but export orders have contracted at the fastest pace in more […]

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