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May 9, 2019 | US-China “Trade Deal” Trade: Long AUD/JPY

Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play) If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we […]

April 18, 2019 | Oil Daily: Another Top? We Have Equality…

In the last month or so, we have managed to call at least four of the last zero tops in oil. But we now have an interesting setup—it could be equality; i.e. whereby the correction in three waves (zig zag here) and the first (A) and last wave (C) are equal in length. That is […]

April 11, 2019 | Turkey vs. South Africa. Which Country Do You Think Has a Brighter Future?

Our bet is on Turkey, despite the near-term concerns. South Africa seems on the path to be the next Zimbabwe unless major changes are made soon. Take a look at how the South African Rand has outperformed the Turkish lira since 2008. A nice symmetrical A-B-C corrective pattern with “equality”; i.e. A Wave = C […]

April 4, 2019 | EUR/USD 240-min…Time For a Correction Higher?

Minimum playable target on a “correction” would be to the 38.2% retrace level or 1.1283. Note the prior Wave [iv] as resistance so far…

March 27, 2019 | EUR/USD 240-min View…Looking for a Test of at Least…

We have been short EUR/USD from 1.1436 back on 3/20/19…we expect a test of 1.1174 minimum…peeling some profit off at the 78.6% level—1.1233—if we get there.

March 19, 2019 | GBP/USD 540-min – Expanding Flat Pattern?

It is possible we have completed an A-B-C expanding flat pattern ; which traces out Wave (B). We are short, as the reward seems skewed to the downside.

March 15, 2019 | US $ Index Hourly…a Bit Lower Than Higher?

Looking for a push down toward the 78.6% retrace level at 96.225…we want to get long the dollar on any signs of reversal higher…

March 8, 2019 | Oil and Stocks Working Lower Together…

We remain short oil and looking for a push down toward 52 minimum target…a big dump in stocks and we likely see oil to 50-48 level…correlation as risk asset remains tight…

March 7, 2019 | EUR/USD Daily Wave View

The pair is testing the longer-term 61.8% retracement level today going back at 1.1183…momentum still pointing lower. Our next Fib target comes in at 1.0810 or 78.6% retracement…remaining short and will be sending a stop adjustment to lock in more profit.

February 27, 2019 | If You Like Oil Short Here – You Should Probably Like USD/CAD Long…

Below is USD/CAD daily (black bars) versus WTI crude futures (price inverted red line so you can better visualize the ongoing tight correlation between the two price series. If oil breaks down here (red line moves higher), this correlation indicates $-CAD is likely to follow.

February 20, 2019 | USD/ZAR (S. African rand) 240-min View….

Needless to say this trade has been our fav this year. Note the pair rallied right into key 78.6% resistance on the SA budget news. We are still long after taking some profits along the way. Looking to add again on a decent Wave-2 correction…

January 19, 2019 | Gold (GLD etf) Daily: Resistance at the 61.8% Retrace Level…

GLD (gold etf) has been rejected at the 61.8% retrace level. Watching for another try, then failure as a possible short trade setup.

January 18, 2019 | US Long Bond View

A zig zag A-B-C with the C-wave rally coincident with stocks selling off and putting in a fresh low…our guess…

January 17, 2019 | US Stocks vs. AUD/USD: Stocks into a Near-Term Key Resistance Level…

We have seen a nice positive correlation of late between US stocks and AUD/USD. Stocks are heading into a key retracement level at 2626….so; a break in stocks and Aussie should follow…

December 22, 2018 | Deflationary Bust in the Making? A Dollar Risk Bid Likely Follows…

There is a rising consensus which says: The Fed is engineering a deflationary bust.  We agree.  But we also believe the Fed is consistently behind the curve and a US recession is likely in the cards no matter.

December 18, 2018 | Dow Theory Confirmation and a Bear Market?

The recent new highs made back in late September were confirmed, based on Dow Theory; i.e. Industrials were confirmed by Transports. Is this when bear markets begin? Hmmm….stay tuned.

December 14, 2018 | USD/CAD Hourly – Still like the Short Side…

Still liking USD/CAD short setup…though CAD has a way of disappointing…symmetrical internal A-B-C patterns confluence at 1.3400-level.

December 13, 2018 | USD/JPY One More Time…Breaking on News

We keep fiddling with this trade…short USD/JPY…we have an extension into the 113.70; which ended up as today’s high…other extensions in the neighborhood. News from Japan: TOKYO, Dec 14 (Reuters) – Japanese manufacturing activity has expanded in December, a preliminary survey showed on Friday, but export orders have contracted at the fastest pace in more […]

December 8, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily EW View…

EUR/USD having trouble at 1.1420…cautiously optimistic despite the resistance….

December 3, 2018 | USD/EUR vs. Italy-German 10-year Spread

Italy is still a MAJOR concern for the eurozone; Italian bond spreads relative to Germany are off their highs (327 basis points) and down to 281 basis points (by no means out of the woods).  Note the tacit correlation between euro and spread direction. Below, the pair is shown as USD/EUR so you can see […]

November 25, 2018 | US Dollar Index Versus Oil Weekly View

Below is a look at the US dollar versus Oil.  We have been wrong on oil.  And it now appears a major top is in place at Wave A.  We are expecting the old correlation of strong dollar-weak oil, and vice versa, again.  To that belief, a correction lower in the dollar over the next […]

November 9, 2018 | China Stocks Hit Again This Morning…US Yields Cross-Over Soon?

We’ve been tracking this chart, showing the correlation between Chinese stocks, the yuan, and yield spread (with the US). The incentive to keep hot money in China fades as the US spread gains. We don’t know if the damn will break, and capital will rush out, but it seems risks are growing.

November 2, 2018 | Soybeans Looking Interesting…Confirming Dollar Weakness? Hmmm…

Soybeans (Jan ‘19)…240-min view…impulse down complete? US Dollar Index into our target zone…turning down?

October 2, 2018 | The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid

Quotable “Anyone who spends too much time thinking about international money goes mad.” –Charles Kindleberger  Commentary & Analysis The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid The Mundellian trilemma says policy makers can control only two of the three main variables in global finance, but not all three at the same time. “…it is […]

September 27, 2018 | Will the Dollar – Oil Correlation Get Back into Gear?

Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear? Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses:   During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil […]

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