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December 22, 2018 | Deflationary Bust in the Making? A Dollar Risk Bid Likely Follows…

There is a rising consensus which says: The Fed is engineering a deflationary bust.  We agree.  But we also believe the Fed is consistently behind the curve and a US recession is likely in the cards no matter.

December 18, 2018 | Dow Theory Confirmation and a Bear Market?

The recent new highs made back in late September were confirmed, based on Dow Theory; i.e. Industrials were confirmed by Transports. Is this when bear markets begin? Hmmm….stay tuned.

December 14, 2018 | USD/CAD Hourly – Still like the Short Side…

Still liking USD/CAD short setup…though CAD has a way of disappointing…symmetrical internal A-B-C patterns confluence at 1.3400-level.

December 13, 2018 | USD/JPY One More Time…Breaking on News

We keep fiddling with this trade…short USD/JPY…we have an extension into the 113.70; which ended up as today’s high…other extensions in the neighborhood. News from Japan: TOKYO, Dec 14 (Reuters) – Japanese manufacturing activity has expanded in December, a preliminary survey showed on Friday, but export orders have contracted at the fastest pace in more […]

December 8, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily EW View…

EUR/USD having trouble at 1.1420…cautiously optimistic despite the resistance….

December 3, 2018 | USD/EUR vs. Italy-German 10-year Spread

Italy is still a MAJOR concern for the eurozone; Italian bond spreads relative to Germany are off their highs (327 basis points) and down to 281 basis points (by no means out of the woods).  Note the tacit correlation between euro and spread direction. Below, the pair is shown as USD/EUR so you can see […]

November 25, 2018 | US Dollar Index Versus Oil Weekly View

Below is a look at the US dollar versus Oil.  We have been wrong on oil.  And it now appears a major top is in place at Wave A.  We are expecting the old correlation of strong dollar-weak oil, and vice versa, again.  To that belief, a correction lower in the dollar over the next […]

November 9, 2018 | China Stocks Hit Again This Morning…US Yields Cross-Over Soon?

We’ve been tracking this chart, showing the correlation between Chinese stocks, the yuan, and yield spread (with the US). The incentive to keep hot money in China fades as the US spread gains. We don’t know if the damn will break, and capital will rush out, but it seems risks are growing.

November 2, 2018 | Soybeans Looking Interesting…Confirming Dollar Weakness? Hmmm…

Soybeans (Jan ‘19)…240-min view…impulse down complete? US Dollar Index into our target zone…turning down?

October 2, 2018 | The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid

Quotable “Anyone who spends too much time thinking about international money goes mad.” –Charles Kindleberger  Commentary & Analysis The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid The Mundellian trilemma says policy makers can control only two of the three main variables in global finance, but not all three at the same time. “…it is […]

September 27, 2018 | Will the Dollar – Oil Correlation Get Back into Gear?

Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear? Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses:   During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil […]

September 26, 2018 | The Three-Body Problem and Debt in the Year 2018

Despite the best efforts of governments and central banks we remain to a large degree mired in the same trap thanks to global supply exceeding demand in manufactured goods and commodities.

September 24, 2018 | Fundamentals are Still Smiling at the Dollar

Quotable “I don’t think…” then you shouldn’t talk, said the Hatter.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland Commentary & Analysis Fundamentals are still smiling at the dollar There is a simple framework we can use to help evaluate the likely intermediate-term trend of the US dollar, measured in months and quarters.  It is referred to […]

September 13, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily: Bank of Canada in Play and Trade Deal Looming?

We, including our subscribers (we take the same trades we suggest) are short USD/CAD from 1.3145. Rationales at the time of entry: 1) Bank of Canada in play based on the recent Deputy Governor’s hawkish speech, and 2) a trade deal with the US…and of course the Wave setup below that has played out nicely […]

September 6, 2018 | Major FX Pairs Update

Still working on the premise an expanding flat pattern’ i.e. [a]-[b]-[c] is still in play. The rally to resistance at 95.68 and reversal today, adds confidence minor Wave (c) of [c] may be underway. 

August 29, 2018 | Kiwi Concerns…

Quotable “For things to reveal themselves to us, we need to be ready to abandon our views about them.” – Thích Nhat Hanh  Commentary & Analysis Kiwi Concerns…  ·         Premise: If key correlations, albeit loose, but not likely spurious, remain intact, and we finally get a nasty correction lower in global stocks, the New Zealand […]

August 27, 2018 | Aussie Long for a Thrust to 0.7600?

AUD/USD Daily: I have re-labeled the Aussie pattern, fitting in an expanding flat correction [a]–[b]–[b] to better fit the price action, showing the completion of the (B) wave up toward 0.7676 swing resistance.

August 1, 2018 | USD/JPY 240-min View – Setting up for another short trade?

View: Corrective rally in Wave 2. USD/JPY 240-min [last 110.44]:  I am labelling the low at 110.61 as a completed five-wave sequence; thus, we are now in the midst of a sharp Wave 2 retracement rally with an optimum target to 112.07-19 before reversing for a sharp and deep decline in Wave 3 of (C) […]

July 27, 2018 | GBP/USD Daily View – Expanding flat pattern setup?

In the daily chart view of GBP/USD you can better see the expanding flat pattern (A-B-C) I referred to in the 240-min view (second chart below).

July 24, 2018 | USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851–a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week’s inflation report.  And that is showing up […]

July 6, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily – Pushing Lower in Corrective Move…

USD/CAD Daily [last 1.3097] Working lower today (a good jobs report from Canada) and though first support at 1.3130.

June 28, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily: Maybe a Corrective Top in Place? Gold Correlation?

USD/CAD Daily – Corrective top may be in place…(and gold correlation) 28 June 2018/9:01 a.m. ET The corrective top labeled Wave A may be in place for USD/CAD.  Near-term support at 1.3256 with scope back to at least 1.2900 level if this A Wave is complete.  Gold price action may help, as the two have […]

June 27, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily View

Looking for a corrective rally in Wave B back toward 1.2000.

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