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September 13, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily: Bank of Canada in Play and Trade Deal Looming?

We, including our subscribers (we take the same trades we suggest) are short USD/CAD from 1.3145. Rationales at the time of entry: 1) Bank of Canada in play based on the recent Deputy Governor’s hawkish speech, and 2) a trade deal with the US…and of course the Wave setup below that has played out nicely […]

September 6, 2018 | Major FX Pairs Update

Still working on the premise an expanding flat pattern’ i.e. [a]-[b]-[c] is still in play. The rally to resistance at 95.68 and reversal today, adds confidence minor Wave (c) of [c] may be underway. 

August 29, 2018 | Kiwi Concerns…

Quotable “For things to reveal themselves to us, we need to be ready to abandon our views about them.” – Thích Nhat Hanh  Commentary & Analysis Kiwi Concerns…  ·         Premise: If key correlations, albeit loose, but not likely spurious, remain intact, and we finally get a nasty correction lower in global stocks, the New Zealand […]

August 27, 2018 | Aussie Long for a Thrust to 0.7600?

AUD/USD Daily: I have re-labeled the Aussie pattern, fitting in an expanding flat correction [a]–[b]–[b] to better fit the price action, showing the completion of the (B) wave up toward 0.7676 swing resistance.

August 1, 2018 | USD/JPY 240-min View – Setting up for another short trade?

View: Corrective rally in Wave 2. USD/JPY 240-min [last 110.44]:  I am labelling the low at 110.61 as a completed five-wave sequence; thus, we are now in the midst of a sharp Wave 2 retracement rally with an optimum target to 112.07-19 before reversing for a sharp and deep decline in Wave 3 of (C) […]

July 27, 2018 | GBP/USD Daily View – Expanding flat pattern setup?

In the daily chart view of GBP/USD you can better see the expanding flat pattern (A-B-C) I referred to in the 240-min view (second chart below).

July 24, 2018 | USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851–a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week’s inflation report.  And that is showing up […]

July 6, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily – Pushing Lower in Corrective Move…

USD/CAD Daily [last 1.3097] Working lower today (a good jobs report from Canada) and though first support at 1.3130.

June 28, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily: Maybe a Corrective Top in Place? Gold Correlation?

USD/CAD Daily – Corrective top may be in place…(and gold correlation) 28 June 2018/9:01 a.m. ET The corrective top labeled Wave A may be in place for USD/CAD.  Near-term support at 1.3256 with scope back to at least 1.2900 level if this A Wave is complete.  Gold price action may help, as the two have […]

June 27, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily View

Looking for a corrective rally in Wave B back toward 1.2000.

June 19, 2018 | Dollar Index Wave View Update

The dollar index: It appearsminor Wave [iv] correction is complete at 93.17; looking for a rally with minimum scope to 95.88 (this target established as Wave [v] = [i]).  Expecting this will complete larger Wave A before a decent corrective move sets in to counter this strong five wave rally from back at 88.25–low of Wave […]

June 15, 2018 | Japanese Stocks Versus USD/JPY: A Very Tight Correlation Here..

As you can see, the path of the USD/JPY pretty much tracks right on the Nikkei 225 stock index with a 93% 21-day correlation.  Momentum is fading for Japanese stocks… Inflation still weak in Japan – BOJ rates unchanged today..

June 12, 2018 | Donald’s Dollar Dilemma

 President Trump has made it clear he wants to see the US trade deficit decline and appears willing to use all means necessary to achieve his goal.

June 8, 2018 | Euro “Death Cross”…hmm

50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA= Death Cross…

June 5, 2018 | US Stocks & JPY Continue to be Correlated…Haven Play?

US Stocks & JPY continue to be correlated…have play? 5 June 2018/11:11 p.m. ET If stocks break, as we expect, will USD/JPY follow?  Though the correlation has been sketchy, there is a correlation and presently at +74%; i.e. if stocks fall so may USD/JPY.  This would make sense if JPY plays a safe haven role […]

June 1, 2018 | Positioning/Data Due Out/Chart View (AUD, EUR, 10-yr Note vs. $ Index)

Position Link  A slew of data due out today, including non-farm payrolls which bond traders (10-year chart and comments below) will likely react to, if not the currency guys… AUD/USD 240-min view:  Our risk on this trade is 0.7510; the 61.8% retrace is 0.7519; today’s first pivot support comes in at 0.7527–needless to say we need […]

May 25, 2018 | US Dollar Index View

Still expecting a minor correction lower in the dollar; back toward 92.  But we don’t expect this will be the end of the longer term trend.  We are expecting another sharp rally after this near-term pull-back to the 95 level.

May 10, 2018 | If You Like the Yen, Should Also Like Gold…

USD/JPY (black) vs. Gold price inverted (red)…nice correlation of late…

May 3, 2018 | GBP/USD Daily: 1st Leg of Correction Complete?

The decline from 1.4375 high to the 1.3532 low appears to be a three-wave affair labeled A-B-C.  Note that Wave C is almost exactly the length of Wave A so far; evidence a bottom may be in on the first leg of this correction lower; i.e. Wave (A) and setting up for a rally in […]

March 28, 2018 | GBP/USD – A Choppy Triangle Pattern Setup?

Price action (choppiness) suggests maybe the dollar bottom may be delayed.  We say that as we expect a major bottom in the buck soon; then a counter trend really of multi-month variety to wrong-foot the dollar bears.  A triangle pattern as shown below, would keep the market guessing before a final thrust lower in the […]

March 5, 2018 | Paradise in hell. Will the South African Rand morph into the Zimbabwe Dollar?

In case you didn’t notice (quite possible because it doesn’t fit the MSM narrative), the esteemed South African parliament, in their infinite wisdom, decided that yes, because the ANC has turned the country into a paradise in hell during its 24-year reign of corruption and incompetence, now is the time to blame white farmers (again) […]

February 22, 2018 | Shorting Oil: A Trade!

We continue to be long-term bulls on oil; but we went short this afternoon for a trade. We are targeting down to the mid-50’s for oil on this EW chart setup.  We have overlaid the US dollar index (inverted in blue) so you can see the correlation.  (I.E. because the dollar index is inverted, when the blue […]

February 19, 2018 | Path of the Dollar = Path of Commodities?

It’s not easy trying to forecast future prices from chart patterns; nor is it any easier to do so no matter how much fundamental information you possess, or believe you possess (see Frédéric Bastiat’s famous essay: “What is seen and what is not seen”).  Said forecasting difficulties prove the axiom, so succinctly stated by the […]

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