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February 12, 2020 | EUR/USD Daily View: A Bottom in Place? Maybe

We have been tracking for a while–since November 2019–the possible irregular flat correction pattern, whereby Wave (b) exceeds the beginning of Wave (a) and Wave (c) carries lower than Wave (a), as you can see in the chart below.  An extension for Wave (c) as a percentage of the Wave (a) in this type of […]

January 28, 2020 | IF EUR/USD is Going to Bounce, This Would Be A Good Place…

A nice symmetrical A-B-C pattern into the low.

January 23, 2020 | GBP/USD: A Nice Symmetrical Retracement Pattern….

…a push lower again? We know where our risk is…

December 31, 2019 | Major Pairs Summary

December 18, 2019 | EUR/USD Hourly: One more push lower near-term?

Have we traced out A-B and have C down to follow?  We still like this setup after a test of our stop level at 1.1179.  Note the minor Wave [a] is equal in length as minor Wave [c] into the 1.1175 high.  Looking lower; targeting to 1.1086 in Wave C.

December 6, 2019 | Tight Correlation: If you like stocks short; then you should like USD/JPY short

USD/JPY (black) vs S&P 500 Stock Futures (purple) 240-min: A fairly tight positive correlation. A further correction lower in stocks likely means USD/JPY follows.

October 22, 2019 | Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C Pattern?

Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C pattern? Looking for a rally…

October 13, 2019 | Chart View: Why China’s Currency will not be Weaponized…

Quotable “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.’ –Lao Tzu                                                     Many analysts have been predicting China will “weaponize” its currency; i.e. push it sharply lower against the US dollar as punishment for US trade “aggression.”  On first blush, this sounds sensible.  But I don’t believe it aligns with what China is trying to […]

September 22, 2019 | Oil: A Bearish Alternative…

Everybody is loving oil now. A bearish alternative.

September 13, 2019 | Major Bottom in EUR/USD?

We went long EUR/USD during the ECB press conference on Friday, after the 1.0924 low was tested within 1 pip at 1.0925. We suspect a MAJOR low is in place for the euro. Below is our daily Elliott Wave view for the EUR/USD. Mr. Drahgi opened the floodgates. Gave the market what it wanted. Yet […]

September 6, 2019 | Stocks: Possible Intermediate-term Top Today?

Lots of love for the stock market as we know. The only game in town say the bulls with interest rates headed for zero bound. And that may be the case longer term. But a technical case can be made for an intermediate-term correction based on this Wave view–an (a)-(b)-(c) correction (3-3-5).

August 16, 2019 | Which Horse to Ride: Plausible Competing US Dollar Views….

We have two seemingly equally plausible views for the direction of the US dollar; i.e. key juncture time we suspect. Comdols appear relatively cheap, but no doubt would suffer on a big “risk off” event. The euro and yen (plus swiss) have been playing have roles, yet that could change quickly, at least for the […]

July 30, 2019 | GBP/USD Daily: Boris Shall Set You Free…

As you probably know, I am no fan of the EU.  So, by extension, I am routing for Boris to succeed.  And I believe he will succeed in successfully taken the UK out of the EU and the country will be many times better off as a result once we get this period of relative […]

July 19, 2019 | Gold and the Dollar: Correction Time?

Double equality target in gold? Say what? Looking at these moves as a series of three-wave corrections higher, we see that larger Wave (A) = (C) and minor Wave [a] = [c]…hmmm….due for a rest? Could coincide with another short-term bottom in the US dollar….(second chart below)…. US Dollar Index: A push down toward are […]

July 14, 2019 | Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar

We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is interesting is the background stuff; as usual. We […]

July 12, 2019 | Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar

Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar: We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is […]

July 2, 2019 | USD/CAD vs. Oil: Maybe a top in oil? Will CAD follow?

The oil price rally may be complete….we are bearish on oil…daily view below: If oil breaks again, will the Canadian dollar follow? Below shows USD/CAD vs. Oil Price (inverted in red–dotted line) 4-hour basis… We remain long USD/CAD…

June 15, 2019 | Has the Buck Bottomed? We Don’t Know, but a Plausible Alternative Says Yes….

The buck has powered higher, well above our target today.  And it now leaves open the key question: Have we seen a dollar low; i.e. is this the trend move to 102 we have been targeting longer term now underway? Effectively, we defined the low in our “alternative”  or secondary view we shared earlier in the week.  […]

June 8, 2019 | USD/JPY Setup For a Big Trend Move Higher?

After a sharp rally from the low at 104.98; it appears we have seen yet another irregular flat correction; i.e. A-B-C; with Wave C made up of a five-wave impulse decline: [i]-[v]. Interesting this impulse Wave C ended bang on the 61.8% retracement from the swing high 112.39 to the swing low 104.98. Worth a […]

May 31, 2019 | EUR/USD Hourly: Equality Extension into Today’s Low….So Far…

This chart outlines a standard A-B-C zig zag correction; at least so far. A couple things of interest: Absolute equality; i.e. of Wave A = Wave C, comes in at 1.1115; today’s low was 1.1114—pretty close. Secondly, Wave A was 40 hours in duration, while Wave C was 37 hours in duration. Just maybe, the […]

May 22, 2019 | AUD/USD Hourly View: Confluence support at 0.6860 level…time to go long?

Excellent risk/reward potential here it seems.

May 9, 2019 | US-China “Trade Deal” Trade: Long AUD/JPY

Bottom line: Risk off hurt Aussie (leveraged to growth) and helped yen (as a safe haven play) If we couple the yen move with the Aussie push lower, we have a very enticing setup (we think) for AUD/JPY (plus, we like AUD/USD long still). Note in the chart below, a couple of key points: 1) If we […]

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