- the source for market opinions


June 19, 2018 | Dollar Index Wave View Update

The dollar index: It appearsminor Wave [iv] correction is complete at 93.17; looking for a rally with minimum scope to 95.88 (this target established as Wave [v] = [i]).  Expecting this will complete larger Wave A before a decent corrective move sets in to counter this strong five wave rally from back at 88.25–low of Wave […]

June 15, 2018 | Japanese Stocks Versus USD/JPY: A Very Tight Correlation Here..

As you can see, the path of the USD/JPY pretty much tracks right on the Nikkei 225 stock index with a 93% 21-day correlation.  Momentum is fading for Japanese stocks… Inflation still weak in Japan – BOJ rates unchanged today..

June 12, 2018 | Donald’s Dollar Dilemma

 President Trump has made it clear he wants to see the US trade deficit decline and appears willing to use all means necessary to achieve his goal.

June 8, 2018 | Euro “Death Cross”…hmm

50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA= Death Cross…

June 5, 2018 | US Stocks & JPY Continue to be Correlated…Haven Play?

US Stocks & JPY continue to be correlated…have play? 5 June 2018/11:11 p.m. ET If stocks break, as we expect, will USD/JPY follow?  Though the correlation has been sketchy, there is a correlation and presently at +74%; i.e. if stocks fall so may USD/JPY.  This would make sense if JPY plays a safe haven role […]

June 1, 2018 | Positioning/Data Due Out/Chart View (AUD, EUR, 10-yr Note vs. $ Index)

Position Link  A slew of data due out today, including non-farm payrolls which bond traders (10-year chart and comments below) will likely react to, if not the currency guys… AUD/USD 240-min view:  Our risk on this trade is 0.7510; the 61.8% retrace is 0.7519; today’s first pivot support comes in at 0.7527–needless to say we need […]

May 25, 2018 | US Dollar Index View

Still expecting a minor correction lower in the dollar; back toward 92.  But we don’t expect this will be the end of the longer term trend.  We are expecting another sharp rally after this near-term pull-back to the 95 level.

May 10, 2018 | If You Like the Yen, Should Also Like Gold…

USD/JPY (black) vs. Gold price inverted (red)…nice correlation of late…

May 3, 2018 | GBP/USD Daily: 1st Leg of Correction Complete?

The decline from 1.4375 high to the 1.3532 low appears to be a three-wave affair labeled A-B-C.  Note that Wave C is almost exactly the length of Wave A so far; evidence a bottom may be in on the first leg of this correction lower; i.e. Wave (A) and setting up for a rally in […]

March 28, 2018 | GBP/USD – A Choppy Triangle Pattern Setup?

Price action (choppiness) suggests maybe the dollar bottom may be delayed.  We say that as we expect a major bottom in the buck soon; then a counter trend really of multi-month variety to wrong-foot the dollar bears.  A triangle pattern as shown below, would keep the market guessing before a final thrust lower in the […]

March 5, 2018 | Paradise in hell. Will the South African Rand morph into the Zimbabwe Dollar?

In case you didn’t notice (quite possible because it doesn’t fit the MSM narrative), the esteemed South African parliament, in their infinite wisdom, decided that yes, because the ANC has turned the country into a paradise in hell during its 24-year reign of corruption and incompetence, now is the time to blame white farmers (again) […]

February 22, 2018 | Shorting Oil: A Trade!

We continue to be long-term bulls on oil; but we went short this afternoon for a trade. We are targeting down to the mid-50’s for oil on this EW chart setup.  We have overlaid the US dollar index (inverted in blue) so you can see the correlation.  (I.E. because the dollar index is inverted, when the blue […]

February 19, 2018 | Path of the Dollar = Path of Commodities?

It’s not easy trying to forecast future prices from chart patterns; nor is it any easier to do so no matter how much fundamental information you possess, or believe you possess (see Frédéric Bastiat’s famous essay: “What is seen and what is not seen”).  Said forecasting difficulties prove the axiom, so succinctly stated by the […]

December 19, 2017 | Dollar Bears Multiplying; Be Careful!

As I scan the papers, and the web, I have noticed bank analysts and newsletter writers are becoming increasingly bearish on the US dollar. Effectively, the dollar downtrend will continue in 2018 is the view. This seems the consensus thinking to justify a dollar bearish view

December 9, 2017 | Will May’s Capitulation Sink the Pound?

Either Prime Minister May skipped class at Oxford when they were discussing the art of negotiation, or she never liked the idea of Brexit in the first place (we know the latter applies).  

December 5, 2017 | Gold Quiet Period About To End?

Gold pays no interest. Thus, gold prices tend to be negatively correlated to interest rates; i.e. higher interest rates and lower gold prices, vice versa.

November 18, 2017 | Market Cooling; Global Cooling? Buy Commodities.

As much as Europeans hate to hear this, there some uncultured rubes such as me who remain skeptical of “climate science.”

November 11, 2017 | Yields Going Higher? That’s Our Guess

As a trader considering the fate of interest rates it pays to remain open to all “well-crafted stories.” Why? Because, based on many years of empirical evidence in the bag, we agree with the old saw: No one can forecast interest rates.

November 7, 2017 | Time to Sell Gold? The Mr. Elliott We Know Thinks So…

Targets  lower are  1,210; then 1180 – level. And if  the US dollar catches a major bid , there is scope to test the swing low of ,123 from mid – December 2016 (gold vs. dollar weekly chart page 3)

October 31, 2017 | Hawks Unleashed Could Rock the Markets

The chief hawk in this narrative is Stanford Economics Professor John Taylor (JT); aka the creator of the Taylor Rule for monetary policy.  Should President. Trump pull a surprise out of his hat this week (Would it be a surprise if President Trump didn’t surprise?), and appoints JT head of the US Federal Reserve Bank […]

October 13, 2017 | USD/CAD Hourly: Critical resistance tested…

Critical resistance at 1.2521, the Wave 1 low, was tested today.  Looking for a push lower in minor Wave 5 down.

October 10, 2017 | US $: It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over

Despite the rising probability, along with increasing sentiment and real positioning, suggesting the US dollar cyclical bull market rally is over (ending with the peak in early January 2017 labeled 5 of III below), the jury is still out. Why do I say that? Well, below are some rationales to consider:

October 3, 2017 | Mr. Market, What are You Telling Us About the Dollar?

Watching the currency market over the past couple of days has been akin to watching paint dry. In my case the paint drying analogy is probably because I have a few different scenarios in my mind and find all of them plausible (see, Orwell’s Doublethink lives in the minds of traders). My continuous question as […]

September 28, 2017 | Short USD/CAD Here? Divergence with Oil…hmmm

We shared this chart as some rationale for shorting USD/CAD this morning…we should find out soon if it works. USD/CAD 4-hour (gold) vs. Oil Futures (price inverted purple): A nice divergence here; CAD and oil are usually tightly correlated.  

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