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November 9, 2018 | China Stocks Hit Again This Morning…US Yields Cross-Over Soon?

We’ve been tracking this chart, showing the correlation between Chinese stocks, the yuan, and yield spread (with the US). The incentive to keep hot money in China fades as the US spread gains. We don’t know if the damn will break, and capital will rush out, but it seems risks are growing.

November 2, 2018 | Soybeans Looking Interesting…Confirming Dollar Weakness? Hmmm…

Soybeans (Jan ‘19)…240-min view…impulse down complete? US Dollar Index into our target zone…turning down?

October 2, 2018 | The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid

Quotable “Anyone who spends too much time thinking about international money goes mad.” –Charles Kindleberger  Commentary & Analysis The Mundellian Trilemma, China’s Box, and Dollar Risk Bid The Mundellian trilemma says policy makers can control only two of the three main variables in global finance, but not all three at the same time. “…it is […]

September 27, 2018 | Will the Dollar – Oil Correlation Get Back into Gear?

Quotable “Formula for success: rise early, work hard, strike oil.” –J. Paul Getty  Commentary & Analysis Will the Dollar – Oil correlation get back into gear? Chart Analysis/Comments/Guesses:   During the hay days of the US-China symbiotic commodities for shrinking dollar boom there was an extremely tight negative correlation between the US dollar and oil […]

September 26, 2018 | The Three-Body Problem and Debt in the Year 2018

Despite the best efforts of governments and central banks we remain to a large degree mired in the same trap thanks to global supply exceeding demand in manufactured goods and commodities.

September 24, 2018 | Fundamentals are Still Smiling at the Dollar

Quotable “I don’t think…” then you shouldn’t talk, said the Hatter.” ― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland Commentary & Analysis Fundamentals are still smiling at the dollar There is a simple framework we can use to help evaluate the likely intermediate-term trend of the US dollar, measured in months and quarters.  It is referred to […]

September 13, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily: Bank of Canada in Play and Trade Deal Looming?

We, including our subscribers (we take the same trades we suggest) are short USD/CAD from 1.3145. Rationales at the time of entry: 1) Bank of Canada in play based on the recent Deputy Governor’s hawkish speech, and 2) a trade deal with the US…and of course the Wave setup below that has played out nicely […]

September 6, 2018 | Major FX Pairs Update

Still working on the premise an expanding flat pattern’ i.e. [a]-[b]-[c] is still in play. The rally to resistance at 95.68 and reversal today, adds confidence minor Wave (c) of [c] may be underway. 

August 29, 2018 | Kiwi Concerns…

Quotable “For things to reveal themselves to us, we need to be ready to abandon our views about them.” – Thích Nhat Hanh  Commentary & Analysis Kiwi Concerns…  ·         Premise: If key correlations, albeit loose, but not likely spurious, remain intact, and we finally get a nasty correction lower in global stocks, the New Zealand […]

August 27, 2018 | Aussie Long for a Thrust to 0.7600?

AUD/USD Daily: I have re-labeled the Aussie pattern, fitting in an expanding flat correction [a]–[b]–[b] to better fit the price action, showing the completion of the (B) wave up toward 0.7676 swing resistance.

August 1, 2018 | USD/JPY 240-min View – Setting up for another short trade?

View: Corrective rally in Wave 2. USD/JPY 240-min [last 110.44]:  I am labelling the low at 110.61 as a completed five-wave sequence; thus, we are now in the midst of a sharp Wave 2 retracement rally with an optimum target to 112.07-19 before reversing for a sharp and deep decline in Wave 3 of (C) […]

July 27, 2018 | GBP/USD Daily View – Expanding flat pattern setup?

In the daily chart view of GBP/USD you can better see the expanding flat pattern (A-B-C) I referred to in the 240-min view (second chart below).

July 24, 2018 | USD/CAD Short Trade Setup

USD/CAD Daily View [last 1.3133]: I am looking for minor Wave-[c] to carry down to at least 1.2968, but prefer the Alternative count to 1.2851–a 61.8% retracement of Wave-A. Key support comes in at 1.3106. Bank of Canada rate hike expectations are rising on the back of last week’s inflation report.  And that is showing up […]

July 6, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily – Pushing Lower in Corrective Move…

USD/CAD Daily [last 1.3097] Working lower today (a good jobs report from Canada) and though first support at 1.3130.

June 28, 2018 | USD/CAD Daily: Maybe a Corrective Top in Place? Gold Correlation?

USD/CAD Daily – Corrective top may be in place…(and gold correlation) 28 June 2018/9:01 a.m. ET The corrective top labeled Wave A may be in place for USD/CAD.  Near-term support at 1.3256 with scope back to at least 1.2900 level if this A Wave is complete.  Gold price action may help, as the two have […]

June 27, 2018 | EUR/USD Daily View

Looking for a corrective rally in Wave B back toward 1.2000.

June 19, 2018 | Dollar Index Wave View Update

The dollar index: It appearsminor Wave [iv] correction is complete at 93.17; looking for a rally with minimum scope to 95.88 (this target established as Wave [v] = [i]).  Expecting this will complete larger Wave A before a decent corrective move sets in to counter this strong five wave rally from back at 88.25–low of Wave […]

June 15, 2018 | Japanese Stocks Versus USD/JPY: A Very Tight Correlation Here..

As you can see, the path of the USD/JPY pretty much tracks right on the Nikkei 225 stock index with a 93% 21-day correlation.  Momentum is fading for Japanese stocks… Inflation still weak in Japan – BOJ rates unchanged today..

June 12, 2018 | Donald’s Dollar Dilemma

 President Trump has made it clear he wants to see the US trade deficit decline and appears willing to use all means necessary to achieve his goal.

June 8, 2018 | Euro “Death Cross”…hmm

50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA= Death Cross…

June 5, 2018 | US Stocks & JPY Continue to be Correlated…Haven Play?

US Stocks & JPY continue to be correlated…have play? 5 June 2018/11:11 p.m. ET If stocks break, as we expect, will USD/JPY follow?  Though the correlation has been sketchy, there is a correlation and presently at +74%; i.e. if stocks fall so may USD/JPY.  This would make sense if JPY plays a safe haven role […]

June 1, 2018 | Positioning/Data Due Out/Chart View (AUD, EUR, 10-yr Note vs. $ Index)

Position Link  A slew of data due out today, including non-farm payrolls which bond traders (10-year chart and comments below) will likely react to, if not the currency guys… AUD/USD 240-min view:  Our risk on this trade is 0.7510; the 61.8% retrace is 0.7519; today’s first pivot support comes in at 0.7527–needless to say we need […]

May 25, 2018 | US Dollar Index View

Still expecting a minor correction lower in the dollar; back toward 92.  But we don’t expect this will be the end of the longer term trend.  We are expecting another sharp rally after this near-term pull-back to the 95 level.

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