- the source for market opinions


July 2, 2020 | The Case For The British Pound

Though I think it best now to get past the non-farm payroll reaction tomorrow, the British pound is looking increasingly interesting as a long trade and a long-term hold based on the potential, we see in our Wave charts and the potential for a fundamental realignment of the their economy triggered by Brexit; i.e. unshackled […]

May 1, 2020 | US Dollar Index Daily View

Dollar Index Daily View – Looking lower…but, alternative still in play as it represents another dollar risk-bid on a big sell-off in stocks (as abstract as such an idea may be to the bulls at the moment; the narrative–money must go somewhere). 0 Likes

April 18, 2020 | Drivers For a Multi-Year Decline in the US Dollar into Focus

I just wanted to comment a bit more on our current macro theme as it relates to credit markets and its impact on the longer-term dollar path. As you know I’ve been suggesting it is the credit market that is key to the US dollar’s path at least intermediate-term (months) and is likely the trigger […]

April 13, 2020 | Still Stuck in the Debt-Demand Feedback Loop….The Great Deflation

Below is a slide I shared at a presentation back in 2015 as the real economy was supposedly healing after the credit crunch.  My point was we were indeed showing some progress, but from a macro standpoint we were still stuck in an ugly debt-demand feed-back loop; i.e. relying on increasing amounts of credit and […]

April 3, 2020 | What’s Holding Up The Pound?

The euro has been battered over the last four trading days, but the pound has held up nicely against the US dollar (see EUR/GBP chart second below). Why? Not sure. But we do believe the pound is set to turn down and we are looking for at least a couple hundred + pip decline, with […]

February 12, 2020 | EUR/USD Daily View: A Bottom in Place? Maybe

We have been tracking for a while–since November 2019–the possible irregular flat correction pattern, whereby Wave (b) exceeds the beginning of Wave (a) and Wave (c) carries lower than Wave (a), as you can see in the chart below.  An extension for Wave (c) as a percentage of the Wave (a) in this type of […]

January 28, 2020 | IF EUR/USD is Going to Bounce, This Would Be A Good Place…

A nice symmetrical A-B-C pattern into the low.

January 23, 2020 | GBP/USD: A Nice Symmetrical Retracement Pattern….

…a push lower again? We know where our risk is…

December 31, 2019 | Major Pairs Summary

December 18, 2019 | EUR/USD Hourly: One more push lower near-term?

Have we traced out A-B and have C down to follow?  We still like this setup after a test of our stop level at 1.1179.  Note the minor Wave [a] is equal in length as minor Wave [c] into the 1.1175 high.  Looking lower; targeting to 1.1086 in Wave C.

December 6, 2019 | Tight Correlation: If you like stocks short; then you should like USD/JPY short

USD/JPY (black) vs S&P 500 Stock Futures (purple) 240-min: A fairly tight positive correlation. A further correction lower in stocks likely means USD/JPY follows.

October 22, 2019 | Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C Pattern?

Dollar Index: A perfect A-B-C pattern? Looking for a rally…

October 13, 2019 | Chart View: Why China’s Currency will not be Weaponized…

Quotable “Nature does not hurry, yet everything is accomplished.’ –Lao Tzu                                                     Many analysts have been predicting China will “weaponize” its currency; i.e. push it sharply lower against the US dollar as punishment for US trade “aggression.”  On first blush, this sounds sensible.  But I don’t believe it aligns with what China is trying to […]

September 22, 2019 | Oil: A Bearish Alternative…

Everybody is loving oil now. A bearish alternative.

September 13, 2019 | Major Bottom in EUR/USD?

We went long EUR/USD during the ECB press conference on Friday, after the 1.0924 low was tested within 1 pip at 1.0925. We suspect a MAJOR low is in place for the euro. Below is our daily Elliott Wave view for the EUR/USD. Mr. Drahgi opened the floodgates. Gave the market what it wanted. Yet […]

September 6, 2019 | Stocks: Possible Intermediate-term Top Today?

Lots of love for the stock market as we know. The only game in town say the bulls with interest rates headed for zero bound. And that may be the case longer term. But a technical case can be made for an intermediate-term correction based on this Wave view–an (a)-(b)-(c) correction (3-3-5).

August 16, 2019 | Which Horse to Ride: Plausible Competing US Dollar Views….

We have two seemingly equally plausible views for the direction of the US dollar; i.e. key juncture time we suspect. Comdols appear relatively cheap, but no doubt would suffer on a big “risk off” event. The euro and yen (plus swiss) have been playing have roles, yet that could change quickly, at least for the […]

July 30, 2019 | GBP/USD Daily: Boris Shall Set You Free…

As you probably know, I am no fan of the EU.  So, by extension, I am routing for Boris to succeed.  And I believe he will succeed in successfully taken the UK out of the EU and the country will be many times better off as a result once we get this period of relative […]

July 19, 2019 | Gold and the Dollar: Correction Time?

Double equality target in gold? Say what? Looking at these moves as a series of three-wave corrections higher, we see that larger Wave (A) = (C) and minor Wave [a] = [c]…hmmm….due for a rest? Could coincide with another short-term bottom in the US dollar….(second chart below)…. US Dollar Index: A push down toward are […]

July 14, 2019 | Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar

We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is interesting is the background stuff; as usual. We […]

July 12, 2019 | Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar

Comments on FX Intervention and the US dollar: We have heard from Fed Chair Powell. Accordingly, he seems to have signaled a rate cut at the next meeting is baked in the cake. And we should suspect it is already baked in the price of key asset classes and the FX pack. But what is […]

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