- the source for market opinions


May 31, 2020 | Central Banks’ Spending Is Supercharging Gold!

Out of the last 11 trades we’ve closed in Gold & Silver Trader, 10 have been wins and one was flat (stopped out at entry). I’m very bullish on gold, though the summer months are usually a time of softer prices. But now, gold is remaining stubbornly strong. Could this summer be different? WHY would this […]

May 31, 2020 | COVID-19 Stimulus Packages Take Away Post-Lockdown Job Incentives

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Amid the many errors and scams perpetrated by Powell, Mnuchin, Trump, Pelosi, McConnell, et al., one stands out. In their Bail Out Everything Act, aka CARES, like a neighborhood loan shark, they sent out the message: “Need cash? Come and see us.” Dear Reader, you already know the story to date. […]

May 31, 2020 | Shocking Numbers: GDP down $500 Billion in Five Months!

America’s Gross Domestic Product (our measure of wealth) has declined by some $500 billion since the beginning of 2020. The numbers can be watched here: Debt to GDP is now 123.06%. Our current deficit has surpassed $3 trillion (official) and some $3.6 trillion (actual). Where is the concern? As I write our GDP is $20.89 trillion […]

May 31, 2020 | China v USA

    QUESTION: Obviously, China is not Hitler or Napoleon with dreams of conquering the world. The days of empire building are gone. China has always been the one who is invaded from the Mongols and Japanese to the Europeans. Do you see China becoming more dominant in empire building retaking Taiwan? JN ANSWER: I am working […]

May 31, 2020 | After the Handouts

“I’m a fan of yours,” Barry says, guaranteeing my fatuous attention. “I’d like to know your thoughts on what might the Canadian economy do once CERB runs out.” And he nails it. That’s the question. The pandemic will end. The virus will leave town. A vaccine/therapy will be found. We’ll have a long time to […]

May 31, 2020 | Economics in Orbit

  The history of humanity, at least as taught in most schools, is really about two seemingly opposite forces: human innovation and human conflict. The same intelligence that lets us accomplish great things also sets us against each other. But sometimes, we rise above it. Last week I saw on Twitter (where you should follow […]

May 30, 2020 | Argentina’s Past Provides Clues for America’s Future

SAN MARTIN, ARGENTINA – Yesterday, we saw how the feds are in the process of cronifying the American working class… by bribing the great mass of “average” voters who decide elections. And here’s the latest from The Washington Post: To help speed the delivery of up to $1,200 in economic impact payments to individuals made available under […]

May 30, 2020 | GDPNow Forecast is Negative 51.2 Percent

 the wake of a disastrous Income and Outlays report, the GDPNow forecast is an astonishing -51.2% The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecasts a number we all hope is wrong. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of […]

May 30, 2020 | Venezuela, China, India, Afghanistan.

I get it. You’re sick of hearing about it. “There must be something else happening in the world,” I hear you saying. Well, you’re in luck! I did some digging and it turns out there are other things happening in the world, after all! Things that have nothing to do with viruses or masks or […]

May 30, 2020 | Comparing Bitcoin to Other Sectors – Risk vs. Value

Quite a few traders have been discussing the recent rally of Bitcoin to recently breach the $10,000 level on May 7, 2020.  This psychological price level is a major milestone for Bitcoin – even though the price has fallen into an extended Flag/Pennant formation since reaching the recent peak.  Many traders and speculators are expecting […]

May 30, 2020 | This Week in Money

May 30, 2020 | Trading Desk Notes May 30, 2020

My bias is that the 20% rally in the S+P from October 2019 to February 2020 may have been a “blow-off top” to a 10 year bull market. (I see Tesla running from ~$250 to ~$950 as the poster child for the Irrational Exuberance of that time.) The virus set off a “tumbling dominos” decline from the […]

May 29, 2020 | Canadian Banks Downplay Housing Risks

Canadian banks reported their results this week and, as expected, took substantially higher provisions for credit losses. Most of the increase in provisions came from estimates for future losses on performing loans. Banks are required to estimate future losses, based, in part, on a forecast for the economy and unemployment. Many Canadian households will face […]

May 29, 2020 | New Realities: Decoupled Stock Markets, Fact Checked Social Media!

I have been aware for years that our virtual monetary system has produced ‘decoupled’ stock markets in recent years. Decoupled means that these virtual stock markets can go UP and UP even as the production economy tanks. Today, the Wall Street Journal covered the situation over in Iran. The Iranian Stock Market has doubled since March […]

May 29, 2020 | Who’s Getting The Biggest Bail-Out? Believe It Or Not, It’s The Gold Miners

With the exception of Amazon and Netflix, pretty much every big financial entity out there is lining up for a bailout. And governments everywhere are obliging. The European Union’s latest “relief” package totals nearly $1 trillion. Japan’s is even bigger, at $1.1 trillion. Even the Swiss National Bank is adding to its tech stock portfolio […]

May 29, 2020 | WSJ: What Happens When Millions Stop Paying Their Debts?

Allowing millions of borrowers to defer debt payments allows them to focus on other necessities and lenders to slow a near-term spike in reported delinquencies and charge-offs.  But it doesn’t solve the solvency crisis now spreading nor the debt write-offs coming.  See Millions skip credit card and car payments: Lenders hope that being flexible with borrowers […]

May 29, 2020 | What Matters

The news was enough to freak Amy out. Like she needed more of it. The economy’s shrunk faster than a dude in a lake – 8% in March (and half of that month was pre-virus). This is Great Depression stuff. Imagine what the April and May numbers will be. Ugh. Also a bank just cut […]

May 29, 2020 | Metals Nearing Critical Momentum For New Parabolic Rally

While the US stock market has rallied over the past 5+ weeks, Gold has stalled near $1730 to $1740.  We issued a research post suggesting the GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc was acting as major resistance and once that level is breached, we expect a big upside move in Gold.  Currently, Gold has reached just […]

May 29, 2020 | 20 Year Bull Market For Gold

Gold and Black Swans

May 28, 2020 | Canadian Banks

Breakout from consolidation with expanding volume in Canadian banks.

May 28, 2020 | Gates’ Eugenics End Goal – Population Control

What is truly amazing is how the mainstream media is so intent upon just accepting whatever Bill Gates says and his entire agenda without the slightest bit of investigation. They just hate Trump so intensely that they do not care what the agenda is behind Gates’ global assault on the economy, arguing we will never […]

May 28, 2020 | Green Pressure on Canada Escalating, Rapidly

So supporters of a big shift to “green” are putting heat on our federal government to turn Canada into a shiny world leader for renewable energy, now that “oil is dead.” They promote it to Ottawa as a part of the new normal they want to follow the COVID-19 pandemic. But does this logic make […]

May 28, 2020 | Cannabis Could Be the Hottest Industry of 2020

Stocks are rallying hard. This seems counterintuitive, considering how bad the economic news is. Part of it is that investors are looking at the future. But there is a stronger, more important force pushing the broad markets higher: central banks around the world. They’re cranking up the electronic money printing presses to prop up pandemic-plagued […]

May 28, 2020 | How it Ends

Some years ago, when this blog was still pithy (instead of just pissy) we summed it all up this way: the rich hold assets. The rest hold debt. Well, the virus sure has underscored that piece of news. Since hitting a panicked low in the third week of March, the US stock market has careened […]

May 28, 2020 | Falling Rents: Good for Tenants Bad for Levered Landlords

In December 2017, the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) reported that Canada’s highest population areas were home to the most over-valued realty prices, relative to rents and income, of anywhere in the world. According to a recent CIBC and Urbanation study, 48% of all newly completed condominiums in the greater Toronto area since 2017 were purchased […]

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