After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from -43.3 percent to -56.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 0.73 percentage points.

The New York Fed Nowcast estimate took a dive to -35.5% from -30.5%.

Annualized Numbers

Both numbers are seasonally-adjusted annualized quarterly-numbers so the estimate is awful, but not as bad as it looks.

Income Surges as Spending Drops Most on Record

The forecasts plunged due to a BEA report that showed Income Surges as Spending Drops Most on Record

Income and Outlays

• Income: +10.5%
• Disposable Personal Income: +12.9%
• Real Disposable Income: +13.4%
• Personal Consumption Expenditures: -13.6%
• Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: -13.2%

Amazing Leap in Savings Rate to Record 33 Percent

As a result an alleged rise in Disposable Personal Income of 12.9% and a drop of -13.6% in spending, the Personal Savings Rate jumped to 33.0%.In

In Why the Amazing Leap in Savings Rate to Record 33 Percent? I list eight  reasons for the decline in spending.

There are also a couple of reasons that income may not have risen as much as reported. Please see the link for details.

Mish