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June 23, 2020 | New Home Sales Jump After Steep Negative Revisions

New home sales in May jumped 16.6% to 676,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. The huge percentage jump is from a downward revision. The Census Bureau revised April from 623,000 units to 580,000 units.Sales vs Expectations Mortgage News Daily commented “For the second month in a row, sales of newly constructed homes outdistanced expectations.” Factoring […]

June 22, 2020 | 30% Failed to Make Housing Payments in June

Fear of evictions are on the rise as missed payments were 30% for two months. A study shows Missed Payments Stabilize In June At Alarming 30% Level. 37 percent of renters and 26 percent of homeowners are concerned that in the next six months they will face an eviction or foreclosure. This hardship continues to be […]

June 18, 2020 | Unemployment Claims Dip But Remain Stubbornly High

Initial unemployment claims dipped slightly to 1,508,000. For the 13th consecutive week initial unemployment claims topped the 1.5 million mark.Initial Claims 1980-Present To put things into proper perspective, initial unemployment claims never topped the 1 million mark before Covid-19. Now we have had 13 consecutive weeks in which claims topped 1.5 million. Econoday Consensus The […]

May 30, 2020 | GDPNow Forecast is Negative 51.2 Percent

 the wake of a disastrous Income and Outlays report, the GDPNow forecast is an astonishing -51.2% The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecasts a number we all hope is wrong. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of […]

May 27, 2020 | Boeing is the Tip of the Layoff Iceberg

Boeing announced more layoffs after recording zero orders but 108 cancellations. Boeing announced over 12,000 Layoffs in the wake of plane cancellations and dearth of new orders. Boeing Co (BA.N) said Wednesday it was eliminating more than 12,000 U.S. jobs, including involuntary layoffs of 6,770 U.S. workers as the largest American planemaker restructures in the face of […]

May 26, 2020 | Author of Bailout Nation Gets Bailout

Barry Ritholtz, Author of Bailout Nation, just got a bailout. Please note the $1.3 billion Ritholtz Wealth Firm Takes Out a PPP Loan. Count Ritholtz Wealth Management among the $1bn-plus RIAs which have taken out government-backed coronavirus relief loans. Reformed Broker Under Pressure The RIA’s chief executive, Josh Brown had this to say in a Reformed Broker blog […]

May 24, 2020 | Why Isn’t the Dollar Collapsing Given Trillions in Printing?

S Congress has authorized several trillion dollars in Covid-fighting stimulus programs. So what’s holding the dollar up?I Think Outside the USI remain amused by all the calls of hyperinflation and high inflation given the Fed has turned on the printing presses. However, currencies cannot be viewed in isolation. To those expecting a total US dollar […]

May 23, 2020 | The Economy Will Not Soon Return to Normal: Here’s Why

Numerous chain reaction ripple impacts will delay the economic recovery. Let’s start with a look at car rental companies. No Magic AnswersBankruptcies happen when there is too much debt leverage accompanied by some sort of economic shock. For example, Hertz filed for bankruptcy on Friday. Now, the entire rental industry is Scrambling for Answers, but there […]

May 22, 2020 | 9% of All Mortgages are in COVID-19 Forbearance Plans

‘ 9 percent of mortgages are in forbearance but the pace of increase has tapered off. The latest data from the McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that the surge in mortgage forbearance plans has tapered off.Estimated Monthly Advances Key Points As of May 19, 2020, 4.75 million homeowners , 9.0% of all mortgages, have entered into COVID-19 […]

May 21, 2020 | The Rich in China Got Richer Thanks to Covid-19

Everyone was not adversely impacted by Covid-19, especially in China. A Tweet Thread by Michael Pettis explains. During my Sunday seminar a student made a presentation with preliminary data on how Covid-19 has affected the wealth and the income of different households in China, ranked by income. I sort of expected a broadly linear relationship in which […]

May 20, 2020 | China’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio Surges to 317 Percent

The IIF estimates that China’s total debt hit 317 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020. Michael Pettis at China China Financial Markets comments on China’s debt in a Tweet Thread. Thread For those interested in China’s debt profile, this article has a lot of information, to which I have […]

May 19, 2020 | Housing Starts Plunge a Record 30 Percent

Housing starts fell 30.2%, Permits 20.8%, and completions 8.1% due to Covid-19. The Residential Construction Report stats record the the greatest month-over-month decline in the history of the stats. The housing data dates to 1959.Starts vs Econoday Consensus Starts: 0.891 Million Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Consensus Starts: 0.968 Million Permits vs Econoday Consensus Permits: 1.074 Million Seasonally Adjusted […]

May 15, 2020 | Industrial Production Declines Most in 101 Years

On the heels of miserable retail sales numbers comes the worst ever industrial production numbers. The Fed’s Industrial Production report provides another grim look at the Covid-19 wrecked economy. Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led […]

May 13, 2020 | Wisconsin Supreme Court Rules Lockdowns Are Illegal

The Wisconsin Supreme court tossed governor Gov. Tony Evers’ stay at home orders. In a 4-3 Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling, Wisconsin Now Without COVID-19 Restrictions. Conservative justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ monthslong stay-at-home order in a ruling released Wednesday. The 4-3 decision marked the first time a state’s highest […]

May 11, 2020 | It’s a Bad Time to Buy a Home

Home are priced for perfection and few can afford them. I expect prices to decline. The National Association of Realtors will not like this post, but home prices need to come down, and they will.Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, home prices were on a trend that was unlikely to continue for long. Median Home Price […]

May 6, 2020 | Job Losses by Size of Company: Who Lost the Jobs?

ADP reported a massive decline of over 20 million jobs. Let’s investigate losses by size of firm. Earlier today I commented ADP Reports 20 Million Jobs Lost: A Disaster Comparison Three WaysThis is a followup on losses and percentage losses by corporation size. Nonfarm Private Payrolls March 2020 Nonfarm Private Payrolls April 2020 Change in Nonfarm […]

May 3, 2020 | Massive Drop in Homebuyer Interest

Homebuyer interest is down amdid rising concerns about seemingly everything. Can virtual tours, phone calls and video conferences replace the real thing?Point2Point conducted a survey of real estate agents and professionals nationwide to find out.So far, the answer is no as Real Estate Agents Assess the Post-Pandemic Future of Homebuying. The bulk of the agents who […]

May 2, 2020 | Spain Seeks Another Bailout as Deficit Skyrockets

Spain needs another rescue. Its deficit and debt violate Eurozone treaty rules. Deficit rule violation is across the board. At least Spain admits it.As translated from El Mundo, Spain Needs a New Era of Adjustment. In simple terms, Spain admits it needs another bailout. This is a Mish-modified translation. An economic collapse is underway. Spain officially […]

April 26, 2020 | Wave of Repossessions Coming as Subprime Auto Buyers Miss Payments

  Subprime car lenders report a sharp drop in auto loan payments. In a sign of upcoming trouble, Subprime Car Buyers Miss Loan Payments. Credit Acceptance Corp., the lender to car buyers with subprime credit scores, warned it’s seeing a sharp drop-off in payments as people shift their financial priorities to get through the coronavirus pandemic. […]

April 24, 2020 | Over 6% of All Mortgages Now in Forbearance

Mortgages in forbearance are on a steep rise due to Covid-19. Black Knight released the following points regarding mortgage forbearance. According to the Black Knight McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, as of April 23, 2020, more than 3.4 million homeowners – or 6.4% of all mortgages – have entered into COVID-19 mortgage forbearance plans This population represents $754 billion […]

April 23, 2020 | A Home Sales Crash is On the Way: Let’s Discuss the Impact

Existing home sales fell to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of 5.27 million compared to an estimated 5.335 million SAAR. The lead chart is from the NAR. In March, single-family sales were down 8.1% and condominiums sales were down 11.7% compared to last month. Compared to a year ago. single-family home sales were up 1.3% while […]

April 20, 2020 | Crude Price Falls to -$40: Yes, Negative

There is nowhere to store the oil, but someone is obliged to take delivery. This is what happens when someone has to take delivery and no one wants to because there is nowhere to store the oil.Those who thought $1 was cheap, thought wrong. You now get paid as much as $40 to take delivery […]

April 17, 2020 | Illinois is Insolvent: State Requests a Pension Bailout From Congress

Illinois pension plans are in serious trouble. So serious, the states seeks a federal bailout. Cities are in trouble too! The president of the Illinois State Senate seeks $40 billion to help the pension system, fund unemployment insurance and aid hospitals and cities according to the New York Times. The letter, sent this week by State […]

April 16, 2020 | Housing Starts Plunge 22% and It Will Get Worse

Housing starts took a huge dive in March. April rates to be much worse. Economists at Econoday expected housing starts would fall to 1.35 million on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). That’s a decline of 15.6% from the February report of 1.599 million SAAR.Instead, starts fell to 1.216 million SAAR, a decline of 22.3% according […]

April 15, 2020 | Unprecedented Decline in Retail Sales and It Will Get Worse

A slew of economic reports came out today, all of them terrible. But the next set will be worse. Inquiring minds are investigating the Advancer Retail Sales Report for March 2020.Ten Highlights Total: -8.7% Motor Vehicles and Parts: -25.6% Furniture: -26.8% Food and Beverage Stores: +25.6% Gasoline: -17.2 Clothing Stores: -50.5% Sporting Goods Stores: -23.3% General Merchandise […]

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