- the source for market opinions


August 14, 2018 | Household Debt Hits Record High $13.29 Trillion Led by Mortgages, Student Loans

A New York Fed report shows household debt hit a new record high of $13.29 trillion in the second quarter. Inquiring minds are digging into the New York Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Total Debt ​ Mortgage Originations ​ Auto Loans by Credit Score Credit Score Ratings: Equifax “Lenders generally see those with credit […]

August 13, 2018 | Crypto Bubble Unwind Images: Fast in Altcoins, Slower in Bitcoin

Ripple, the number three cryptocurrency is down 89% from the top, Ethereum 76%, Bitcoin 67%. The cryptocurrency bubble is unwinding rapidly from the bottom up. Bitcoin is holding up the best. Here’s a set of images of the three leading cryptos. I created the charts at approximately 1:00 PM on August 11. Bitcoin the Top […]

August 12, 2018 | Lira Dives 10% at Open, Turkish Banks Now Insolvent: Get Your Money Out Now!

Warning to Turkish Citizens: Get Your Money Out Now! Zerohedge reports Turkish Lira Crashes Through 7 as Erdogan Threatens To Unleash “Plan B or C…” Following emergency bank meetings and numerous pleas by Erdogan for Turks not to “pull FX out of their banks,” blaming the country’s current economic crisis on America, the Lira has […]

August 10, 2018 | Real Wages Decline Year-Over-Year

Wages are not keeping up with consumer price inflation. The average worker is worse off than a year ago. In conjunction with the CPI report, the BLS also releases a Report on Real Earnings. All employees Real average hourly earnings for all employees were unchanged from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of […]

August 9, 2018 | Producer Price Inflation Flat, Well Under Consensus, Bond Yields Tumble

Economists expected the Producer Price Index would jump in July. Instead, the PPI was flat and bond yields tumbled. This morning, the BLS released Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July. ​ Key Points PPI for final demand is unchanged in July. Final demand prices advanced 0.3 percent in June and 0.5 percent in May. On an […]

August 8, 2018 | Mortgage Purchase Applications Decline 4th Week, Refinancing Lowest Since 2000

Mortgage applications are yet another sign that housing has peaked this cycle. Econoday Synopsis ​ ​ Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 2 percent in the August 3 week, posting the fourth weekly decline in a row, while applications for refinancing fell 5 percent to their lowest level since December 2000. Unadjusted, purchase […]

August 7, 2018 | Consumer Credit Up 3.1%, Revolving Credit Unexpectedly Declines

After a blistering May, revolving credit fell 0.2% in June as overall credit continued its upward march. Bloomberg reports Consumer Credit in U.S. Rose Less Than Estimated in June. I prefer to go straight to the source. The Fed G.19 Report shows consumer credit rose 3.1% in June, with nonrevolving credit up 4.4% and revolving credit down 0.2%. […]

August 6, 2018 | Italian Bond Market Crisis Coming Up

Italy’s 10-Year bond yield surged around the Italian election. There’s heavy issuance in Sept and ECB tapering in Oct. The yield on Italian bonds surged in May on the victory of the League- and Five Star in the national election. The alliance does not intend to follow EU budget rules. Heavy issuance is coming up […]

August 4, 2018 | Excellent SRSrocco Report on Free Cash Flow Evaluation of Gold Mining Companies

Cash flow at miners is down and operating costs up. 2018 has not been a great year. What’s going on? This is a guest post, and an excellent one, from SRSrocco. He proposes using free cash flow rather than routine industry methodologies for analysis. I offer a few thoughts at the end. Top Gold Miners […]

August 2, 2018 | Factory Orders Rise 0.7% but Less Than Consensus, Transportation Leads

Factory orders rose 0.7% in June. Nondefense Aircraft rose 3.2%, Defense aircraft 20.2%, and motor vehicles 0.9%. Let’s dive into more details from the Census Bureau report. New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in June, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $2.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $251.5 billion, down from the […]

August 1, 2018 | Word of the Day “Strong”: Just Not Strong Enough to Hike

The word of the day is “strong”. The Fed used that word five times. The Fed’s actual action was not strong. Fed Ups Economy from Solid to Strong Let’s dive into the FOMC Statement for clues and actions. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and […]

July 31, 2018 | Employment Cost Index Up 2.8%, Most Since 2008

Employment costs are up 0.6% for three months ending in June and 2.8% from a year ago. This morning the BLS released its Employment Cost Index report for June 2018. Three Month Results Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in June. Wages and salaries (which make […]

July 30, 2018 | “Free Stuff”: Medicare for All Cost Pegged at $32.6 Trillion for 10 Years

Cost estimates for “free stuff” are pouring in. The sticker price for “Medicare for All” is shocking. “Medicare for All” sounds great. And every unthinking socialist wants it. But here’s the deal: ‘Medicare for All’ Would Cost $32.6 Trillion Over 10 Years. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ “Medicare for all” plan would boost government health spending by $32.6 […]

July 29, 2018 | Italy Backs Brexit: Salvini Accuses EU of “Swindling” the UK

Matteo Salvini, Italy’s Leader accuses the EU of swindling the UK on Brexit. The Sunday Times reports Matteo Salvini, Leader of Italy’s Right, Warns EU is ‘Swindling’ Britain Out of Brexit. In an exclusive interview with The Sunday Times, Matteo Salvini urges Theresa May to adopt a tougher stance in her Brexit negotiations with the EU, […]

July 28, 2018 | Recession Without an Inverted Yield Curve? Sure, Why Not?

Japan had six consecutive recessions without an inverted yield curve. There is no reason it can’t happen here. The above chart shows the last six recessions. I do not believe any points of the curve inverted but I only show short-term rates and the 10-year rate. I believe portions of the yield curve did invert […]

July 26, 2018 | Mortgage Prison: Sydney Home Prices Suffer Largest Annual Decline Since 2008

Home prices in Sydney and Melbourne are back to 2016 levels. That is a tiny down payment as to what is coming. News AU reports House Prices Drop in Sydney, as Melbourne Prices Stall. Tumbling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne are the main drivers behind the first annual drop in national property prices in […]

July 25, 2018 | Kelsey Coin $Trillion Scam

Chris Kelsey claims he personally will be the world’s first trillionaire. He says that’s a “fact”. On the Medium, in “How to Become a F*ing Millionaire” Chris Kelsey brags he will soon become a trillionaire. I became a f*ing millionaire at 19. I finessed my way there and I didn’t give the time of day […]

July 24, 2018 | Housing Prices Hit “Breaking Point” Leading to Collapse in Demand

“The affordability crisis may have reached a breaking point in Portland, San Jose, and Seattle,” said Redfin CEO Buyer Fatigue Redfin notes June Home Prices Rose 5.7% Year Over Year; Smallest Increase Since December 2016. The key point is buyer fatigue. “The affordability crisis may have reached a breaking point in Portland, San Jose and Seattle,” […]

July 23, 2018 | No Deal: Trump Offers Zero-Tariff Deal, EU Refuses

Germany is in a bind. It wants a tariff deal to save its car manufacturing. The rest of the EU would rather fight. The Washington Times reports No deal: EU resists Trump’s zero-tariff trade offer, prepares new list of sanctions to add pressure. President Trump offered European nations and other countries a zero-tariff deal as […]

July 22, 2018 | Surge in Global Credit Driven by China: Deflationary Bust Coming

Since 2008 the growth in global credit has been on the back of China. Real estate led the way. Now what? Inquiring minds should take a look at FT Alphaville article Chinese Real Estate, Charted. Here is the key chart. ​ In March, Jim Chanos stated “China has gotten worse”. ​ According to Chanos, global […]

July 20, 2018 | Nowcast vs. GDPNow: Questioning the Absurdity of Nowcast’s Non-Volatility

Nowcast had no reaction to 35 of 35 economic data points since June 19. GDPNow rose 0.7 PP since July 6. Given the surprisingly strong retail sales report on July 16, I expected at least some positive action in the Nowcast forecast. Nope. GDPNow, did react. GDPNow Reaction History ​ Nowcast Reaction History ​ ​The largest move on […]

July 19, 2018 | Trump Criticizes Fed Rate Hikes and Blasts the Strong Dollar

Trump is speaking his mind on interest rate policy, a subject that is normally taboo for presidents. Breaking tradition, Donald Trump Says He’s ‘Not Happy’ About Federal Reserve Interest-Rate Increases. President Donald Trump said Thursday he hoped the Federal Reserve would stop raising interest rates, delivering an unusual censure of the central bank. “I am […]

July 18, 2018 | Free Trade Good or Bad? Trump’s Amazing Impact on Republicans and Democrats

The shift of Democrats towards supporting free trade, and Republicans the opposite is a sight to behold. Blame Trump. Historically opposed to free trade, Democrats increasingly identify with values like openness to trade. Republicans have done the opposite as noted by Greg Ip in the Wall Street Journal. Since the 1940s, Republicans have branded themselves […]

July 17, 2018 | Brexit Mess Gets Messier: UK Parliament Votes to Stay in EU Medicine Network

The UK parliament threw article after article at Theresa May who narrowly won all the votes but one. It’s now a mess. Yesterday UK Prime Minister Theresa May narrowly survived a Tory Brexit Rebellion after allegedly caving in to Brexit hardliners. It still took three Labour votes for May to win the challenge. The Eurosceptic […]

July 16, 2018 | Retail Sales Surge Continues With Huge Buying Spree

Retail sales jump 0.5% in June following an upward revision in May from 0.8% to 1.3%. GDP estimates will follow. There is little denying a strong second-quarter from the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Sales report for June. Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and […]

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