- the source for market opinions


February 21, 2019 | Existing Home Sales Down Again: -1.2% Month Over Month, -8.5% Year-Over-Year

Economists expected a small bounce in existing home sales. Once again, economists expectations weren’t met. Economists at Econoday expected a bounce to 5.04 million sales at a seasonally-Adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Instead, sales fell to 4.94 million from a revised 5.00 million units. The biggest disappointment of the 2018 economy was the nation’s housing sector and the […]

February 20, 2019 | Trump Meets Austria’s Anti-Immigration Chancellor Sebastian Kurz

Earlier today President Trump met with Austria’s right-wing chancellor to discuss trade, immigration, and auto tariffs. Trump Meets Sebastian Kurz ​ In regards to auto tariffs, Trump said “The EU has been very difficult for many many years. We are negotiating with them and if we don’t make a deal we will do the tariffs.” […]

February 19, 2019 | Nice Action in Gold!

Gold responded to something today (or perhaps nothing), but the action is technically very bullish, especially monthly. On a daily basis, gold held the $1280 to $1310 level then jumped higher today by $22.70 to $1344 for no apparent reason. Regardless, the move was long overdue due to increasing deficits and other related issues including […]

February 15, 2019 | Import and Export Prices Unexpectedly Dive

Headline price inflation numbers on imports and exports both came in well below consensus estimates. Let’s investigate the BLS Import and Export Price Indexes for January 2019. Imports Month-Over-Month and Year-Over-Year ​ Imports: Prices for U.S. imports declined 0.5 percent in January and 3.1 percent over the last 3 months. The 3-month drop was the largest decrease since […]

February 14, 2019 | Shockingly Weak Retail Sales: Down 1.2% in December, Sharpest Decline Since 2009

Holiday retail spending came in shockingly bad. Retail sales fell 1.2 percent vs economists expectations of a rise. The Econoday consensus estimate for retail sales was +0.1% in a range of -0.1% to +0.4%. No economist came close. Retail sales fell 1.2 percent in December for the sharpest monthly decline of the expansion, since September 2009 and […]

February 13, 2019 | Surge in Auto Loan Delinquencies: Auto Loans in High Gear

Auto loan delinquencies are well below the great recession. But they are well above the years prior to the recession. Earlier today the Fed released its report on household debt. Interestingly, the Fed did a separate, special report called Auto Loans in High Gear. Although household debt balances have been rising since mid-2013, their sluggish growth […]

February 12, 2019 | Household Debt Up 18 Consecutive Quarters to a New Record, Card Stress Rising

Household debt is up 18 consecutive quarters to a new record high. Credit card stress is on the rise in most age groups. The New York Fed report on Household Debt and Credit Developments in 2018 Q4 shows consumer debt hit another new record. Aggregate household debt balances ticked up in the fourth quarter of 2018 for […]

February 11, 2019 | Clarification Toilet Paper: Theresa May Asks MPs for Two More Weeks

Theresa May wants two more weeks for discussions with the EU. All it will do is run down the clock. The Guardian reports May to Ask MPs for Further Fortnight’s Grace in Brexit Talks. With 45 days to go until Britain is due by law to leave the EU, with or without a deal, the prime […]

February 10, 2019 | Brexit Trifecta: May Rejects Corbyn’s Customs Union Offer, What’s Next?

In a purposefully delayed response to Corbyn, UK Prime Minister Theresa May took another 4 days off the Brexit clock. On February 6, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn offered UK Prime Minister Theresa May a Customs Union Deal in which the Labour party would back a deal with May. She could have easily rejected Corbyn’s offer […]

February 9, 2019 | Progressive Battle Cry: Tax the Rich! Tax the Rich! How’s it Working Out?

New York’s projected income tax is $2.3 billion short of estimates. Governor Cuomo site a need for more taxes. “Tax the rich, tax the rich, tax the rich. We did that. God forbid the rich leave,” said New York Governor Cuomo. Well they did leave and his solution, of course, is to raise taxes. Please […]

February 8, 2019 | Autopilot in Reverse: Fed Discusses Regular Use of QE in Non-Emergencies

San Francisco Fed President admits open debate on permanent QE as a regular tool. Autopilot is in reverse gear. Seven Fed presidents gave speeches this week. San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly provided the closing yap for the week. Daly said the Fed is debating if balance sheet should be regular tool. “In the financial crisis, […]

February 6, 2019 | Increasing Number of High-Income Americans Choose to Rent: Let’s Investigate Why

The percentage of high-income households choosing to rent is on the rise. High-income is defined as $150,000 and up. The Rent Cafe reports High-Income Americans Are the Fastest Growing Renter Segment — Up by 1.35 Million in a Decade. The most recent U.S. Census data tells us that the annual increase in the number of high-income […]

February 3, 2019 | MIndless Crypto Action

I follow crptos frequently, but only for amusement, not investment purposes. Its not easy to break into the crypo top 15 from afar, but Empower Coinmanaged to do just that. I never heard of it but here is its claim to fame. “ is the online home for Ecoinplus. Ecoinplus is an investment opportunity that promises […]

February 2, 2019 | Bottom 5 “Sinkhole” Cities: New York, Chicago Lead the Way

63 out of America’s largest 75 cities can’t pay their bills, acquired $330 billion in unfunded debt. Via a report on Watchdog, analysis of the 75 most populous cities in the U.S., shows that 63 of them can’t pay their bills. The total amount of unfunded debt among them is nearly $330 billion. Most of the […]

February 1, 2019 | Italy Heads for 2nd Lost Decade, Entire Eurozone on Verge of Contraction

Italy’s GDP is still below the 2008 level. PMIs from Germany and Italy show the entire eurozone on verge of contraction. Italy is back in recession for the third time in a decade. This one may be particularly hard as Italian Manufacturing Shrinks at Worst Rate in Six Years. Italy’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a measure […]

January 31, 2019 | Too Big to Bail, Too Big to Jail: Italy in Recession With Very Troubled Banks

Italy is back in recession. The pattern of weak growth ever since it joined the Eurozone is easy to spot. The Telegraph reports Italy Tumbles Into Recession as Eurozone Suffers Slowest Growth Since the Debt Crisis. Italy has fallen into its third recession in a decade as slumping domestic demand caused the economy to shrink. GDP […]

January 30, 2019 | Powell Now a Fully-Trained Puppy Happy to Please Master Market

The Fed will be patient. Gradual increases went out the window. Gee who coulda thunk? The Fed did not hike today as expected. Investors hoped for the the word patient and the FOMC Statement said just that. “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, […]

January 28, 2019 | NVDIA and CAT Hammered on Warnings, Soft Demand in China

  NVDIA fell 12.82% and CAT fell 9.13% on revenue warnings and a slowdown in China. Apple led the way on January 2 blaming slowing sales of smartphones and other devices in China. Apple Lost a Record $463 Billion in Market Cap in Three Months. Today, Caterpillar and Nvidia Warnings Send Wall Street Tumbling. Shares of Caterpillar, […]

January 27, 2019 | Most Absurd Brexit Claim Ever: “30-Year Recession, Worse Than 1930s”

The leftwing rag mag The Guardian promotes the most hyped-up silliness to date on Brexit: a 30-year recession. Guardian writer Amelia Hill cites alleged “experts” in her nonsensical appraisal UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit. The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up […]

January 26, 2019 | Elizabeth Warren Wants a Wealth Tax Despite the Fact That it’s Unconstitutional

If you thought the Native American story was a whopper, check out Warren’s new plan to expand government. Tax the rich. Tax the rich. Just take it. That is the message from progressives. Here is Warren’s Press Release. United States Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) today unveiled the Ultra-Millionaire Tax, a bold proposal to tax the wealth […]

January 25, 2019 | GDPNow and Nowcast 4th-Quarter GDP Estimates Near Convergence: 2.7% vs. 2.6%

The GDPNow and Nowcast reports are near convergence with surprisingly little volatility and spread vs past history. GDPNow vs Nowcast Data Sources GDPNow Nowcast Last quarter we saw gaps of 2 percentage points between GDPNow and Nowcast. The spread is now 0.1 percentage point. One potential problems with both reports is lack of economic data. […]

January 22, 2019 | Lawrence Yun Blames Mortgage Rates, Predicts 2019 “Housing Revival”

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts a housing revival this Spring. ​Commenting on the Renewed Plunge in Existing Home Sales, NAR economist Lawrence Yun Blames Mortgage Rates. “The housing market is obviously very sensitive to mortgage rates. Softer sales in December reflected consumer search processes and contract signing activity in previous months when mortgage rates were […]

January 20, 2019 | Billionaire Sam Zell Buys Gold: Right Move, Wrong Reason

Investment guru Sam Zell is buying gold for the first time. Zell claims “Supply is shrinking.” Please consider Billionaire Sam Zell Buys Gold for First Time in Bet on Tight Supply. Gold’s dimming supply prospects have caught the eye of one billionaire. “For the first time in my life, I bought gold because it is a […]

January 18, 2019 | Musk Backslides on Profit Every Quarter Pledge, Will Cut 7% of Workforce

Tesla shares slide after Elon Musk warned in a blog post that making a profit would be difficult. Elon Musk sounds a bit more cautious about profitability in his latest Tesla Update. Here are a couple of pertinent snips. Looking ahead at our mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable transport and energy, which is important […]

January 17, 2019 | Trade Debate: US Mulls Lifting Sanctions on China to Hasten Deal, Calm Markets

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer are on opposite sides of a heated debate on China. A new tactic being debated within the Trump administration aims at giving Beijing incentives to make long-term concessions. It also pits Mnuchin against Lighthizer. Please consider U.S. Weighs Lifting China Tariffs to Hasten Trade Deal, Calm Markets. […]

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