- the source for market opinions


December 15, 2018 | GDPNow Forecast Surges to 3.0% on Retail Sales, Nowcast Flat at 2.4%

Once again the volatility of GDPNow vs Nowcast is in play. The former surged on the retail sales report. GDPNow has had a hot hand in accuracy vs Nowcast for at least two consecutive quarters. Its estimate of fourth-quarter GDP jumped to 3.0% with real final sales, the true bottom line estimate of GDP at […]

December 14, 2018 | Johnson and Johnson Slammed on Report it Knew its Baby Powder Contains Asbestos

A Reuters report claims Johnson and Johnson repeatedly lied about whether its baby powder contained asbestos. Please consider a Reuters special report: J&J knew for decades that asbestos lurked in its Baby Powder. Darlene Coker knew she was dying. She just wanted to know why. She knew that her cancer, mesothelioma, arose in the delicate membrane […]

December 13, 2018 | California Proposes Tax on Text Messages, Retroactive 5 Years

California regulators want to tax text messages to fund programs that bring connectivity to underserved residents. Please consider California Proposes a Plan to Tax Text Messages. A new surcharge proposed by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) wouldn’t be a per-text tax, but a monthly fee based on a cellular bill that includes any fees for […]

December 12, 2018 | Trap Sprung: Theresa May Survives Vote of No Confidence, What’s Next?

Theresa May survives a Tory leadership challenge by a vote of 200-117 but at a price. She will not run for PM again. The Telegraph reports Theresa May Survives No Confidence Vote but 117 Tory MPs Vote Against Her. Theresa May has won the backing of her MPs to “finish the job” on Brexit after making […]

December 11, 2018 | Yellen “Not Another Financial Crisis in Our Lifetimes” Warns of “Gigantic Holes”

Last year, Janet Yellen stated her belief there would not be another financial crisis. Already she is worried. No New Financial Crisis in ‘Our Lifetimes’ Flashback June 27, 2017: Fed’s Yellen Expects No New Financial Crisis in ‘Our Lifetimes’ “Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis?” Yellen said at a question-and-answer event […]

December 10, 2018 | Macron Attempts to Placate Yellow Vest Protesters With Free Money

Macron will hike minimum wages by €100 per month, starting in 2019. Supposedly, this won’t cost employers a dime. The Wall Street Journal reports Macron Pledges Tax Cuts, Minimum Wage Hike to Placate Protests. In an address on national TV Monday, Mr. Macron broke a nearly two-week silence on the so-called yellow vest movement, named after […]

December 7, 2018 | Payrolls Underperform Expectations at 155,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Steady

The unemployment rate was steady at 3.7% as the rise in employment was close enough to the labor force rise of 133,000. ​Initial Reaction Job came in at 155,000 vs an Econoday expectation of 190,000. The unemployment rate was steady but U-6 unemployment rose 0.2% to 7.6%. Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, […]

December 6, 2018 | Let’s Check In On Australia

I don’t want my readers down under to think I have forgotten about them. Let’s check in. Desperate Offers to Attract Tenants Hmm. It seems we have a problem. Rents are Going Down: Landlords Make Desperate Offers to Attract Tenants. Desperate landlords are offering tenants up to four weeks free rent just for signing new leases […]

December 5, 2018 | Trade Truce? Think Again: Canadian Authorities Arrest CFO of Huawei Technologies

At the request of the US, Canadian Authorities Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Huawei Technologies, over Iran sanctions violations. Trade Truce? Deal with China in 90 days? Think again on both counts: Canadian Authorities Arrest CFO of Huawei Technologies at U.S. Request A spokesman for Canada’s justice department said Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver on Dec. […]

December 4, 2018 | Slowly Hiking Into a Recession

The Fed is expected to hike on Dec 18 and perhaps in Mar 2019. The rise in the 3-month yield reflects that expectation. The inverted yield curve persists for a second day. It reflects the idea that the Fed is slowly hiking the economy into recession. Let’s take a look at how we got here. […]

December 3, 2018 | Construction Spending Declines Third Consecutive Month

Construction spending fell for the third month and fourth in five months. Also, September was revised lower. Construction spending has rolled over, led by residential. Econoday economists expected a 0.3% rise this month (why, I have no idea given the state of housing). Instead, total spending fell 0.1% in October from September that was revised […]

December 2, 2018 | Trump Threatens to Kill NAFTA if Congress Doesn’t Approve His New Deal

“I will be formally terminating NAFTA shortly,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on his way home from Argentina USMCA Deal Signed President Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto signed a new NAFTA agreement on Friday. Trump calls the NAFTA replacement USMCA, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. The deal […]

December 1, 2018 | Spotlight on Powell’s Definition of “Just Below Neutral”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that interest rates are “just below neutral”. That’s quite a position. Effective Fed Funds Rate The Effective Fed Funds Rate is 2.2%. Neutral is 3.0%. Lovey-Dovey Interpretation of Powell Speech Sends Stocks Flying On Wednesday I commented Lovey-Dovey Interpretation of Powell Speech Sends Stocks Flying. Here’s the exact statement from Powell […]

November 30, 2018 | Dallas and West Coast Ground Zero for Next Housing Bust

The U.S. housing boom is not ending, it’s over. Dallas and the west coast are in the spotlight. Recent housing data has been downright miserable. New home sales fell through the floor and existing home sales had a string of six consecutive declines. That trend broke last month but it won’t last. The pending home […]

November 29, 2018 | Competing Mortgage Headlines: Rates Barely Move vs Rates Surge Lower on Powell

Freddie Mac says “mortgage rates barely move” but Mortgage News Daily says “rates surge lower” Mortgage News Daily and Freddie Mac offer conflicting reports on the bond market reaction Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday. Mortgage News Daily says Mortgage Rates Surge Lower Mortgage rates surged lower today, falling at the fastest single-day pace in more than a […]

November 28, 2018 | Builder Speculation: Supply of New Homes for Sale Surges to 7.4 Months

As sales dwindle and interest rates rise, the number of unsold homes built on speculation has risen sharply. Mortgage Rates Rising as Speculative Building Increases ​ Completed Homes for Sale in 2018 ​ Observations Supply of completed new homes has increased from 5.6 months to 7.4 months since January. Current supply is the highest rate […]

November 27, 2018 | Bitcoin Near Support, Bitcoin Cash Crash: Where to from Here?

Technically speaking, the chart of Bitcoin looks god awful. Each bounce has been feeble compared to the prior decline. The above chart is from yesterday but it hasn’t changed much. Bitcoin is $3797 as I type. It bounced from around this level a couple days ago to $4125 and here we are again. The first […]

November 26, 2018 | GM to Close 8 Plants, Lay Off Close to 15,000 Workers

Things are worse than widely thought in the auto industry. Today, GM provided the proof. GM will close 5 North America plants, another three elsewhere. GM claims it does not see a downturn but will Slash Nearly 15,000 Jobs anyway. Four factories in the U.S. and one in Canada could be shuttered by the end of 2019 […]

November 25, 2018 | Black Friday Shoppers Return, Profits Another Matter

Black Friday crowds return to their favorite spots, but many chains are squeezed by rising costs. The shoppers are back. The shoppers are back. OK, but what about profits? The Crowds Returned, Retail Profits Didn’t. “It’s a good start to the holiday shopping season,” Macy’s Inc. Chief Executive Jeff Gennette said in an interview Friday. “It […]

November 24, 2018 | Savini Threatens Government Collapse and New Italy Elections if Deficit Changes

Matteo Salvini laid it on the line in no uncertain terms today. He’s not changing the budget as the EU demands. Please consider Salvini Threatens Italy Government Collapse If Deficit Changed. Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, enjoying a steady climb in public opinion polls, said he would bring down the government if the coalition’s budget […]

November 23, 2018 | Yet Another Plunge in Crude: Down 7 Straight Weeks and Negative from Year Ago

Crude is down nearly another 7% today. It’s down 33% since the September high and 13.5% from a year ago. Weekly West Texas Intermediate Chart WTI Monthly Chart Stockcharts does not have intraday prices but it does have nice looking charts. The chart shown does not have today’s plunge. There could be a bounce at […]

November 22, 2018 | Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler Seek White House Meeting

German auto industry executives are so afraid of Trump’s tariff threat that they seek a meeting with the president. Please consider German Car Bosses Willing to Attend White House Meeting. The heads of Volkswagen, BMW, and Daimler are ready to attend a meeting at the White House with the Trump administration, but have not yet […]

November 21, 2018 | Durable Goods Orders Drop 4.4% in October, Huge Negative Adjustment in September

Durable goods new orders fell 4.4% in October. The Census Department revised September from +0.8% to -0.1%. The Census Department Advance Durable Goods Report for October shows unexpected weakness on top of a huge negative revision. New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in October decreased $11.5 billion or 4.4 percent to $248.5 billion, the U.S. […]

November 20, 2018 | Mediocre Housing Numbers: Single-Family Starts and Permits Down, Multi-Family Up

Today’s construction report shows permits fell 0.6%, single-family starts fell 1.8%, but multi-family starts rose 1.6%. Here are some more details from the Census Bureau’s Residential Construction Report for October. Building Permits Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,263,000. This is 0.6 percent below the revised […]

November 19, 2018 | Bitcoin Plunges Below $5,000 as a Battle Over Bitcoin Cash Erupts

A Bitcoin Cash battle has engulfed the entire crypto sector. Ethereum project developer, William Entriken, explains. Bitcoin Cash Battle: Bitcoin Jesus vs Satoshi’s Vision ​ The battle over Bitcoin cash is getting very expensive. Escalating feuds have hit the entire crypto sector. Cointelegraph reports Opposing Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV Factions’ Debates Grow Heated as the […]

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