- the source for market opinions


June 30, 2020 | How the Dow Could Break 30,000

I’ve been wondering what might provide the catalyst to push the Dow above 30,000, and this may be it, from Bloomberg:  “A strain of virus spreading in Chinese pigs has shown it can also infect humans, with researchers suggesting that another pathogen with pandemic potential waits in the wings behind Covid-19.” There’s no telling how […]

June 30, 2020 | The Toll

  First to go, Bandit and I noticed on a morning walk a month ago, was a slow fashion store. (I had to ask Dorothy what the hell that meant. Now I know.) Then her fav bookstore went down. An art gallery up the street has disappeared. So have the horse-drawn carriages. On the weekend […]

June 30, 2020 | Lockdowns Have Pushed Government Pensions Over the Edge

  COMMENT: Facing a vicious circle of conflicting demands and priorities, the California Public Employees Retirement System is turning to debt – a risky scheme to borrow billions of dollars in hopes of juicing its investment returns. The California Public Employees Retirement System, the nation’s largest pension trust, benefited greatly from the runup in stocks […]

June 30, 2020 | Wouldn’t That Be Cool…

Take a world that’s spinning out of control with debt, money creation and pretty much every other measure of financial danger flashing red. Add the inevitable (given the above) precious metals bull market, with rising gold and silver taking the precious metals mining stocks – especially the little speculative ones – along for the ride. […]

June 30, 2020 | Work from Home Threatens HomeOwnership and Wealth

CMHC, Taxpayers and Foreclosure Risk

June 30, 2020 | The Huge Hit to Canada’s GDP

Is Alberta’s recovery plan workable?

June 30, 2020 | Juniors Finally Taking Off

How is economy doing halfway through the year?

June 30, 2020 | What’s Behind Latest Market Rally?

Underlying problems with US economy being hidden

June 29, 2020 | The Final Chapter

All things, both good and evil, come to an end. So it will be with the great silver price manipulation, which I date as having existed, in its COMEX-orchestrated version from 1983. Before that, of course, silver prices were never truly free, mostly as a result of some type of government interference. The US Government […]

June 29, 2020 | Hydrogen: Grey, Blue, and BC Green

We have a social-media follower that we can count on to tell us, frequently, that the real “fuel of the future” is hydrogen. We can understand his thinking: What better than a zero-emission fuel that, when burned, leaves behind nothing but water? No greenhouse gases or noxious particles; no pollution, no problem. Hydrogen also burns […]

June 29, 2020 | Lenders Hit By Contracting Credit and Rising Bad Debts

From March 1 through the end of May, Americans deferred debt payments on 106 million different loans, according to credit-reporting firm TransUnion, triple the number at the end of April. In addition to missing payments on student and auto loans, 8.8% (4.68 million) of American homeowners were in forbearance plans delaying their mortgage payments for at least three months.  […]

June 29, 2020 | The Rethink

  Covid log date 6.29.20. It’s now been more than a hundred days since the giant office towers emptied into the Bay Street canyon below, as furloughed workers scurried furtively underground. Their last subway ride. For many, the final time rubbing shoulder-to-shoulder against a stranger. Without a mask. At that moment they were employees for […]

June 29, 2020 | Constitutional Convention

QUESTION: Hi, I am new to Socrates & will try to utilize this wonderful program. A few questions for Mr. Armstrong about the current state of political discourse: 1) Who has the authority to call a Constitution Convention? 2) How does a Constitutional convention work? (What are the rules…etc.) 3) How can we place limits […]

June 29, 2020 | Russell 2000 Gaps Present Real Targets

Recent Gaps in price action in the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) presents a clear picture of future price targets and support/resistances.  Gaps are one of the most common forms of Technical Analysis techniques.  They represent “voids” where price activity has skipped a range of price as it advances or declines aggressively. Gaps are commonly used […]

June 28, 2020 | Why Inflation Doesn’t Have a Prayer

  V-shape mania appears to be tapering off. Years from now, market historians will come to regard the spectacular rally since late March as a case study in mass psychosis. The explosive resurgence of bulls is not only unsupported by economic reality, it flouts common sense in ways that only extraordinary popular delusions can. There […]

June 28, 2020 | Rate Sex

Four months of virus, now. Ten million cases globally. The bug eating Texas and Florida. The White House losing control. Air Canada, Westjet ditching distancing. Masks everywhere. Condo units flooding the GTA market. Second wave with more hoarding threatened. No hockey in Vancouver. Locusts in India. Civil unrest in America. Toronto finances crumbling. Eight million […]

June 28, 2020 | Gold Completes Another Washout Rotation – Here We Go

One of the most telling patterns in Gold over the past 6+ months has been the “washout low” price rotation pattern after establishing a momentum price base.  It seems as though every time Gold completes one of the moderate-low price rotations, as we call it a “washout low rotation”, it sets up for a new […]

June 28, 2020 | Boiling Point

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.” ― H.L. Mencken After writing a particularly depressing article where I come to a logical conclusion, based upon the factual evidence of all previous Fourth Turnings, I always wonder whether I’m being too pessimistic […]

June 28, 2020 | A Recession Like No Other

We just spent the better part of a decade wondering when the next recession would strike. The last two months we stopped wondering. It’s here and a grand council of esteemed economists has confirmed it. On June 8, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research found monthly economic activity had […]

June 27, 2020 | World Trade Plunges. Here’s Why it’s Even Worse in Reality: China’s Deep-Fake Data Comes to Light

World trade in goods plunged by 12% in April from March, after having already dropped 2.4% in March from February. This plunge of the Merchandise World Trade Monitor, released by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, was by far the largest month-to-month drop in the history of the data going back to 2000. Compared […]

June 27, 2020 | Stagflation Is Paradise For Gold And Silver

The creators of Medicare, Social Security, and other long-term spending programs had a handle on demographics – or at least on the political realities of the time – so they structured those programs to initially take in more money than they needed in order to build up “trust funds” to cover the eventual retirement of […]

June 27, 2020 | Charts: Financial Violence

Nowadays, the saying is that a picture is worth 1,000 words. One recalls from a long time ago it was considered as a Chines observation and it amounted to 10,000 words. In looking it up, the latter was used back in the day.

June 27, 2020 | This Week in Money

June 27, 2020 | Trading Desk Notes June 27, 2020

I trade futures and options for my own account. My initial time horizon for a trade is usually a few days to a few weeks. Sometimes, if my view of the market is working I will maintain a position for months. I believe net profits over time come from disciplined risk management…not from having a great […]

June 26, 2020 | ECB v Fed

QUESTION: Martin, You mentioned in a recent blog post that the ECB, unlike the FED, can go bankrupt. Can you explain further? Not sure where you get the time, energy and resources to research and write all that you do buy it is truly amazing. Regards, M ANSWER: The Federal Reserve does not need permission to […]

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