March 20, 2022 | Why Oil Might Spike — And Stocks Tank — From Here

A thread just appeared on Twitter in which a couple of people who seem to understand the commodity trading business explain the nightmare that now confronts those traders. Here’s an excerpt, with a few technical terms explained for clarity: Commodity trading houses have had to manage liquidity at current price by re-entering the market and […]

March 20, 2022 | Brace for (Recession) Impact

The Strange Recession we are now entering is strange for another reason beside those I described last week. The last “normal” recession ended in 2009, almost 13 years ago. As with most unpleasant experiences, we don’t put a lot of energy into remembering what it was like. The problem is we need to remember it […]

March 20, 2022 | Just a Bear Rally?

With the supposed bear rally about to enter its fifth week, I am reminded of Gideon Drew, “the thing that wouldn’t die” in the 1958 horror movie of that name. Like Drew, the stock market has become a disembodied monster, able to command loyalty and teacherous obedience with just a creepy movement of the eye. […]

March 19, 2022 | Lyn Alden: The Russian Impact On Commodities

Excerpted from Lyn Alden’s March 2022 Newsletter: The global economy, in a blank-sheet-of-paper naïve design that disregards the complicating factors of geopolitics, basically says this: we’ll take Chinese labor and logistics infrastructure, Russian and Brazilian commodities, and developed market institutions and capital, and combine them (and resources from similar countries across the spectrum) into full […]

March 19, 2022 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark – Stock Markets, Nickel, Gold, Oil, US Dollar, Canadian Dollar
• Victor Adair –  Wild Swings in Commodities, Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Market Risk
• Gerald Celente – Russia/Ukraine, Inflation, Cryptos, Freedom

March 19, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For March 19, 2022

The best weekly equity market rally in two years was “setup” by extremely negative sentiment The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) had its lowest weekly close in nearly a year last Friday – down ~14% from January’s All-Time Highs. In last week’s TD Notes, I wrote: Equity market sentiment is currently very negative. If/when prices […]

March 19, 2022 | Peloton’s Wild Ride

The subscriber-based treadmill and fitness company amassed a cult following in the early days of the pandemic, pushing the stock price to euphoric highs. Then everything changed. Individual company narratives vary, but stock declines over 70% are typical after extreme over-valuations. Peloton has been on a wild ride, announcing its CEO was stepping down and […]

March 18, 2022 | The Fed’s Balance Sheet: $8.8 Trillion and Rising

Fed La-La-Land Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in 2010:  I think we would like to bring the balance sheet back to something…under a trillion dollars… Ron Paul: A trillion dollars? Bernanke. Or less, yes. Real World The Fed’s balance sheet was $8.8 trillion on March 9, 2022 – more than double what is was in March […]

March 18, 2022 | Russia Threatens To Use Nuclear Weapons

Russia is threatening to use nuclear weapons in the current conflict with Ukraine if western countries intervene. Is there a significant possibility of a nuclear war? V. Putin issued a vague threat, but everybody thinks they know what he was talking about. In his warning to Europeans and North Americans who might be thinking about […]

March 18, 2022 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada, March Update, amid Jumping Yields, Bank of Canada’s Rate Hike and QT

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate repression and QE during the pandemic have done a marvelous job on Canada’s epic housing bubbles that had started to wheeze. But crazy money-printing fixes everything. But having gotten increasingly nervous about the raging-mania it fueled, the Bank of Canada started to exit some of its money-printing programs in […]

March 18, 2022 | Nickel, US Dollar, Federal Reserve, China, Russia

Stock buy backs

March 18, 2022 | Hiking Rates into a Global Recession and Bear Market

Danielle offers a good overview of recent data and why the Fed has ended QE and is now determined to start hiking rates into plummeting global growth and tumbling financial markets. At the same time, you gotta love all the sites that have popped to attract so-called ‘traders’ this cycle.  Here’s a prediction:  when this […]

March 17, 2022 | Digital Currencies & Rations

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong A question that is worrying so many… Will programmable central bank digital currencies be successful once introduced? Kind regards G ANSWER: Reliable sources are saying that they intend to (1) cancel all paper currency, (2) confiscate all cryptocurrency, (3) impose rationing, (4) wage World War III. Will CB digital currency be […]

March 17, 2022 | Treasury Market Calls Central Bank Bluff

The U.S. Federal Reserve finally hiked its policy rate by .25% yesterday, its first increase since 2018. With rates now in the barely positive .25-.50% nominal range, the plan is to hike six more times toward 2% by year-end. At their meeting in May, they hope to start running down their holdings of nearly $9 […]

March 17, 2022 | Still In Control

A week ago, it was the strongest margin call tornado to ever strike the banks (mostly US banks) in NYMEX crude oil, COMEX gold and silver and LME nickel, to the point of threatening the financial system itself. At its peak, the tornado saw a handful of banks out $20 billion (or more) in NYMEX […]

March 17, 2022 | China Stocks Selling Pressure Could Be Over, Now What?

THE SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX HAS DROPPED MORE THAN 40% FROM ITS PEAK IN JUST 2 ½ MONTHS! China Stocks: This morning bottom pickers around the globe are snatching up what they believe to be “bargain basement priced stocks” as the Hang Seng Index gained 9.1% during today’s March 16, 2022 trading session. It was the […]

March 17, 2022 | MarketWatch: Gold at $10,000? What’s Next After Russia’s Central Bank Gets Cancelled

From MarketWatch: The shockwaves are still being felt by the incredible Western sanctions that have rendered the $630 billion in reserves the Russian central bank accumulated virtually unusable. Can the current dollar-centered global financial system last if money can be summarily canceled? Arthur Hayes, a former emerging markets trader and co-founder of the BitMEX trading […]

March 17, 2022 | Nickel, Lithium, Gold, Silver, Copper

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March 17, 2022 | Canadian Mortgage Debt, Real Estate Bubble, EVs

Canadian Oil, Pipelines

March 17, 2022 | Why Gold and Treasuries Are Best Long Term Bet

Out of control world events making the markets hard to predict

March 17, 2022 | Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Oil

Day Trading in volatile markets

March 17, 2022 | World Wide Recession Ahead?

Crude Oil, Canadian Dollar, Housing Bubble

March 16, 2022 | NATO Calls up Hundreds of Thousands of Troops Ready to Begin WWIII

The pressure to start World War III is on. NATO now expects that there will be a major war with Russia and the confrontation may come even in a few weeks. The NATO Secretary-General announced an increased war alert for hundreds of thousands of soldiers. Stoltenberg issued a joint statement with US Secretary of Defense […]

March 16, 2022 | Mark Nestmann: Could Inflation Break America?

From Nestmann.com: In the early 1990s, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reportedly said something to the effect that when inflation rises, “you’ll switch to something cheaper—more hamburger will show up in your meals than steak.” Greenspan made that argument in defense of what became known as “hedonic adjustments” in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). […]