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March 26, 2022 | Trading Desk Notes For March 26, 2022
Interest rates are surging higher American interest rates hit All-Time Lows in August 2020. Short rates stayed close to zero for the next fifteen months while mid-term and especially long-term bond yields rose (prices fell.) In October 2021, forward markets for short-term rates began to rise. The rate of change accelerated in January and February, […]
March 26, 2022 | Less Credit is the Housing Bubble Solution
Better Dwelling housing analyst Stephen Punwasi addressed the Canadian House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance this week. His comments elucidate why the number of Canadians expecting to buy a home has fallen by a third in 2022 and why the solution to unaffordable housing is less credit, not more supply. Read: Better Dwellings Opening Statement Before the […]
March 26, 2022 | Metal Exchange Chaos Sends Traders Rushing To The Exit
From Bloomberg: Traders and investors are rapidly cutting exposure to the London Metal Exchange after this month’s nickel-market chaos, driving open interest to a 15-year low and leaving key metals exposed to wild price swings as liquidity shrivels. The number of open positions across the LME’s six main metals fell more than 8% in the […]
March 25, 2022 | China Evergrande Hit the News Again
China Evergrande hit the news again, with a surprising announcement that a creditor had seized US$2 billion of funds from a subsidiary of the company. Creditors are upset that one lender received preferential treatment from the restructuring process, which is now being run by the government of China. Will foreign creditors decide to withdraw all […]
March 25, 2022 | Mortgage Rates Are Rising Much Faster than Treasury Yields. What’s the Deal?
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate tracks the 10-year Treasury yield, running roughly in parallel but higher. It tracks the 10-year yield because the average 30-year mortgage gets paid off in just under 10 years, either through the sale of the home, or through a refi. But they don’t move in lockstep, and the difference […]
March 25, 2022 | Are we Following the Path of Pearl Harbor?
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong. You previously mentioned that the chance for world war 3 will come to play after 2027 … but nowadays you are warning that those dead head’s in the west are pushing the world into world war 3 right now. Is there a change in the timeline? With much appreciation, Tal ANSWER: […]
March 25, 2022 | Higher Borrowing Costs Already Biting Hard
Citing Fed Chair Powell’s recent inflation alarm, Goldman Sachs is predicting the U.S. central bank will hike policy rates half a percent at both its May and June meetings. The last time the U.S. Fed hiked by half a percent was May 2000, and the recession began ten months later. By the May 2000 hike, the […]
March 25, 2022 | Global Bond Plunge Wipes Out $2.6 Trillion In One Year
From Bloomberg: Global bond markets have suffered unprecedented losses since peaking last year, as central banks including the Federal Reserve look to tighten policy to combat surging inflation. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, a benchmark for government and corporate debt total returns, has fallen 11% from a high in January 2021. That’s the biggest decline […]
March 25, 2022 | American Manganese CEO says Work Continues to Progress on Demonstration Plant
Bull Markets, Battery Metals and Related Commodities Will Continue Unabated. Read Financial Post Article – “LG Energy, Stellantis to Build Battery Plant in Ontario“. Read Electrek Article – “Elon Musk Announces Tesla is Working on New Manganese Battery Cell“. Read Baystreet Article – “Automakers Are Doubling Down On Battery Production“. Read Reuters Article – “Eramet, […]
March 25, 2022 | Russia Joins China in Post Bubble Contraction
Promised Fed half point interest hike no big deal
March 24, 2022 | Czech Republic to Seize All Russian People’s Assets
Leading Czech politicians are calling for all property within the Czech Republic of all Russians to be indefinitely ‘frozen’ in violation of international law. The onus would be on the victims to “prove” that they are against the Putin regime. There are about 40,000 Russians living in the Czech Republic, plus others who have property […]
March 24, 2022 | IRS Rolls Out Artificial Intelligence Tools for Enhanced Audits
From Mark Nestmann: A few months ago, I received an invitation to attend a lecture with the mind-numbing title, “The Transformation of Tax & Customs Law into the Digital World of Processes, Automation and Predictions.” I wasn’t able to attend, but it reminded me that like the android hosts in Westworld, the IRS was developing […]
March 24, 2022 | Cannabis, Uranium, Cryptos, Electric Vehicles
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March 24, 2022 | Shifting Global Foundations: China’s Property Sink Hole
China’s credit-fuelled property boom was responsible for an estimated third of its economic growth over the last decade. It was also a significant driver of commodity demand, economic momentum and property market inflows globally. Its bust has contagion implications globally too. The rapid expansion of China’s property sector was powered by a great migration from […]
March 23, 2022 | It’s Not Just Energy – It’s Also Metals
The outrageous sanctions imposed by Biden on Russia has undermined the entire world economy. Sanctions have never worked and this time they were designed to try to hurt the Russian people so profoundly that they would overthrow Putin. The Ukrainians are even naming Alexander Bortnikov, the Russian Director of the Federal Security Service and a member […]
March 23, 2022 | Inventory of New Houses Piles Up to Highest since 2008. Sales & Prices Drop. Stocks of Homebuilders Swoon
The inventory of new single-family houses for sale rose to 407,000 houses in February (seasonally adjusted), the largest unsold inventory since August 2008, up by 40% from a year ago. This represents 6.3 months of supply at the current rate of sales, according to data from the Census Bureau today. A problematic mix. Homebuilders […]
March 23, 2022 | Rate Shock Pandemic Spreading
Yesterday, US Fed head Jerome Powell ramped up talk of inflation-fighting rate hikes and aggressively reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. Bond prices have tumbled, as debt service costs leap for the public and private sectors. Over the past seven months, US ten-year Treasury prices (the flip side of yields) have seen their third-largest drawdown of […]
March 23, 2022 | All That Glitters Is Not Russian Gold
From Pepe Escobar via the Strategic Culture Foundation: The “rules-based international order” – as in “our way or the highway” – is unraveling much faster than anyone could have predicted. The Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and China are starting to design a new monetary and financial system bypassing the U.S. dollar, supervised by Sergei Glazyev […]
March 23, 2022 | What Will Be The Impact Of Rising Rates On Stocks & Commodities?
Investors and traders alike are concerned about what investments they should make on behalf of their portfolios and retirement accounts. We, at TheTechnicalTraders.com, continue to monitor stocks and commodities closely due to the Russia-Ukraine War, market volatility, surging inflation, and rising interest rates. Several of our subscribers have asked if changes in monitor policy may […]
March 22, 2022 | Canada’s Unaffordable Housing Comes with Long-Term Financial Drag
The price of the average Canadian home hit $816,720 in February, its highest level on record (Canadian Real Estate Association). The $816,720 average selling price is up 20 percent compared to last year’s level. In the most populated areas of the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas, the average selling price exceeded $1 million. Without these two […]
March 22, 2022 | Is Gold Too Expensive?
From Claudio Grass: Over the last couple of years we witnessed quite an extraordinary ride in gold prices. An impressive ascent until the last quarter of 2020 was followed by a pullback that scared many speculators away, which in turn transformed into a period of strength and then came another ebb… And recently, once again, […]
March 21, 2022 | Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Stock Tops $500,000
A subscriber asked us recently where he should be putting his money and how to limit losses in his retirement portfolio. He expressed frustration as he watched Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stock going up, but at the same time, the stock indices going lower and many of his previously favored stocks experiencing substantial losses! This conversation […]
March 21, 2022 | Purchasing Power is Getting Slaughtered
Consumer prices ripped to a thirty year high in Canada, rising 5.7% from last year. Shelter inflation was up 6.6%, the highest since 1983. Per ScotiaBank, much of that is being driven by the homeowners’ replacement cost, which was up 13.2% y/y. Unlike the US that uses owners’ equivalent rent, Canada captures housing primarily through […]
March 21, 2022 | The Plot Behind the Curtain
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I have a serious question for you. Do you think that Putin was lured into this mess be people trying to change the world? I will leave it at that. GB ANSWER: Yes. I cannot believe that Harris’ off-the-cuff statement at the Munich Security Meeting that Ukraine should join NATO was simply […]
March 21, 2022 | High Gas Prices Accelerate Energy Evolution
Just as employers are stepping up return to office mandates, gasoline prices are the highest in eleven years. Consumer pain is a valuable behavioural catalyst. Half of the Canadian respondents to a recent Leger poll survey said they were now using their vehicles less; one-third said they were looking to buy an electric vehicle. I can attest […]