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March 5, 2021 | Can Central Banks Control Long Term Interest Rates?

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.

Money reserve problems in developing countries could come here

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Archives March 5th, 2021

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2 Comments

  • Avatar Michael says:

    Hi Jim and Bob. My questions for Bob. It seems that the gold miners have broken the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern that suggests that a decline to 1500 may be possible in the intermediate term for gold. The dollar is gaining strength and the equity markets seems to be topping. Bob, how might this all play out over the intermediate term? My second question. As a contrarian, I’m preparing for the bottom to fall out from under the markets taking all boats down with it. My intermediate term “dumb bell” strategy is to continue to hold gold bullion at one end and, at the other end, to hold USD,10 year treasuries and a short on the GDX. No equities and the USD will be treated as king. When gold bottoms with the first leg down in the equity markets, then I would sell the treasuries and go long the gold miners and maybe energy stocks. Bob, does this strategy make sense?

  • Avatar Kathleen says:

    Jim, last week was a great line-up of podcasts – as usual! Bob, it was very interesting to hear on last week’s podcast that the first “Operation Twist” was in 1963 and that the name was inspired by Chubby Checker’s dance song of 1960 called “The Twist”. Chubby also released “Limbo Rock” in 1963; in that song one had to dance “under the limbo stick” by bending one’s knees, leaning back as far as one can, without knocking the limbo stick down. The limbo stick was progressively lowered eliminating limbo dancers one by one with less flexible knees and backs. It seems like more and more young, inexperienced retail equity investors have joined the line of limbo dancers in the equity markets with the margin clerks holding the limbo stick and singing the Chubby lyric “How low can you go”. Bob, how much lower can the limbo stick go before the margin clerks stop this dance? It seems to me like the top was in last month but the analysts on “The Street” unconvincingly, to me at least, say that there’s plenty of upside into 2024.

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