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February 19, 2021 | Dangerous Signs from the Markets

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.

Is rampant inflation likely?

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Archives February 19th, 2021

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  • Michael says:

    Hello Jim and Bob. I have two questions for Bob. An article in Zero Hedge reports that we face an imminent “convexity disaster” in which the Fed losses control over the yield curve and that this may be the black swan that brings down the markets. Bob, what is “convexity” and is there anything here to worry about? Also, it seems like the PM sector may be leading the equity markets lower. I understand that, in 1929 and 2008, the PM sector declined for six weeks after the equity markets “topped”; after 6 weeks the PM sector resumed it’s up-trend while the overall stock indices continued their declines. Bob, can this happen again and can we revisit the March ’20 lows before a reversal in the PMs?

  • David Dorian says:

    Hi Bob: Really appreciate all your efforts to educate investors.

    I’m wondering if you have long term targets for a low on the S&P and Nasdaq/Dow based on technicals or market fundamentals

    I know you are predicting a big bear market from this bubble, do you look for targets or just sentiment for lows?


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