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January 11, 2021 | Radical Left: Tragically Still Winning

Bob Hoye has been in investment business for some 50 years, making him one of the more experienced researchers. His historical work has been thorough providing the first recognition of the fascinating transition from speculation in commodities to speculation in financial assets. It was controversial when Bob observed that “No matter how much the Fed prints, stocks will outperform commodities”. In January 2000, the research team concluded that the Dot-Com Bubble would peak in March 2000. In early 2007, the team outlined that the credit markets would reverse in May-June 2007. They did and the stock market followed. The latest was the call in early October for the Bitcoin Bubble to complete in December. Bob’s essays and speeches on political change and on actual climate change have been widely circulated.

Until Wednesday, Trump’s convivial rallies have been historically big and convivial. Enjoyed by happy patriots who knew they were winning. An orderly way to restore accountable and limited government.  In openly criticizing unrelenting intrusion by authoritarians this has been a refreshing attempt to bring much needed reform. Following up the stellar election in 2016, the next step was DJT winning another term.

Thanks to the rallies, in November the reform movement made impressive gains everywhere. Except for the theft of the presidency.

On November 3rd, Trump had a landslide. And with unrelenting manipulation, on November 4th Biden was declared the winner. Perhaps the only example of a presidential win without a campaign.

Regrettably, the USA is on track to becoming more socialist than Canada or Mexico—put together.

Images show that the storming of the Capital was aggressively led by Antifa troops, not dressed in their usual black uniforms.

For all interests, it would have been very constructive had reform continued to advance on legitimate votes. With even greater success than in 2016. Moreover, the political carrier wave for Trump has been another benign popular uprising. And it will eventually be successful.

Unfortunately, massive electoral fraud and strategic attack upon the Capital building seems to be a turning moment. The latter possibly contrived for havoc, resulted in tragedy. For the young veteran who was shot, as well as for the reform movement.

An outstanding win has been stolen, but the reform movement will continue.

Until now, attempts at reform have been similar to the benign uprising in 1989 when unarmed citizens took on an armed and murderous police state. Hitherto, death was the punishment for citizens in going from one part of Germany to another.

It wasn’t easy in Russia either. Recall the courageous images of Boris Yeltsin standing on a tank rallying his supporters to resist the attempted coup by “hardliners”. In 2011, a BBC article concluded that Russia’s struggling new Republic through Yeltsin enjoyed its “finest hour”.

America’s equivalent has been brutally thwarted.

Despite being a privileged government figure, Yeltsin, was erratic and colorful. But he was instrumental in transforming the former Soviet Union from state-run socialism towards a free-market economy.

It needs to be recorded that this week’s raid on the Capital was out of character for Trump supporters and key events could have been staged. When riled, the Left is capable of any scheme or atrocity.

The goal being the extension of the one-party, one-media Deep State.

With the dreadful news about protestors “storming the barricades outside Congress” and police shots, the establishment went wild. But the event was of a different character than the riots, arson and looting that were professionally staged by uniformed thugs in so many Democrat cities.

In the main, Trump’s rallies have been enjoyed by ordinary folk seeking both freedom and relief from predatory bureaucrats. They never stormed barricades, nor broke into buildings. And afterwards nicely cleaned up their sandwich and candy wrappers.

This writer has been wondering if today’s Left would contrive the equivalent to burning the Reichstag in 1933. A critical step, enabling the minority Nazi Party to overwhelm the formidable Communist presence in Germany. National Socialists committed arson and blamed International Socialists.

And the media went for it.

Quite likely this week’s outrage has been due to Antifa in ordinary clothes, but some had clear plastic shields. At the same time, Tech giants petulantly shutdown Trump’s social communications.  Reckless audacity at high places doesn’t make it any less of an organized insurrection.

And beyond this, Democrats are still seething to pillory Trump through the equivalent of Moscow Show Trials.

Terrible events with profound implications. It could discourage further attempts by the benign popular uprising to restore accountable government. And to protect freedom of speech and assembly.

Sadly, theft of the election will not be prosecuted. And with no legal or ethical recourse to constraining today’s political furies, America’s unprecedented political storm will get worse. Leftist ambition knows no limits.

With elections so blatantly stolen now, future recourse will be difficult. And the political nightmare that the Left personally lives in will be more distressingly forced upon ordinary folk, even in ordinary neighborhoods. Using Biden’s “dark” outlook, hysteria about weather and respiratory diseases will continue as control tools.

Legally, by oath of office every president’s duty is to defend and protect the Constitution. Trump could have been taken further steps but the mob’s attack within the Capital building was allowed, with tragic results.

Altogether, the political storm is setting up conditions for a massive destruction of prosperity. Control freaks have already forced the biggest employment hit in history. Destruction of wealth will follow. Driving capital to where it can’t be abused or stolen. Also, the wild financial boom could naturally complete resulting in a cyclical contraction.


As the record back to Ancient Egypt shows, successful reforms have occurred when ordinary folk seriously suffer as the governing classes live well and promise well.

In looking ahead, widespread economic hardship with continuing authoritarian provocations could inspire an even more determined reform movement. Perhaps like 1776, but without war.

In having led reform this far and against an increasingly radical movementit is unlikely that Trump will really stop. He could continue the campaign for freedom from a different platform. Better to attack the Democrat mob than submit to show trials.

Rather than consider the latest outrage as the specific result of America’s deliberately flawed electoral system, people in all democracies should be concerned about the coup. Advanced by a suspicious election and globally driven, it as a threat to orderly society, anywhere. Ambitious political adventurers lurk in every country.

Constitutions are intended to constrain reckless adventurers.

Until the reform movement gets a deserved break, ordinary folk in most countries remain at risk.



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January 11th, 2021

Posted In: Charts and Markets - Bob Hoye

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