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July 17, 2020 | Housing Starts and Permits Improve But Not Enough

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.
Starts and permits improve but remain below pre-covid levels and levels of a year ago.
Here are the key numbers from this mornings Residential New Construction report.Building Permits

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This is 2.1 percent above the revised May rate of 1,216,000, but is 2.5 percent below the June 2019 rate of 1,273,000.

Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 834,000; this is 11.8 percent  above the revised May figure of 746,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 368,000 in June.

Housing Starts 

Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,186,000. This is 17.3 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,011,000, but is 4.0 percent below the June 2019 rate of 1,235,000.

Single-family housing starts in June were at a rate of 831,000; this is 17.2 percent above the revised May figure of 709,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 350,000.

Housing Completions 

Privately-owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,225,000. This is 4.3 percent above the revised May estimate of 1,174,000 and is 5.1 percent above the June 2019 rate of 1,166,000.

Single-family housing completions in June were at a rate of 910,000; this is 9.6 percent above the revised May rate of 830,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 311,000.

Housing Starts and Permits 1965-Present 

Housing Starts and Permits 1965-Present for June 2020

The above chart puts a needed perspective on how Covid-19 slammed new housing construction.

Yet, even before Covid, housing housing starts were at 1970’s levels.

Related Articles 

There are still 32 million people on some for of unemployment insurance. It is safe to say they will not be in the housing market.

Also note that millennials have abandoned plans to buy a home.

For discussion, please click on the above links.

Mish

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July 17th, 2020

Posted In: Mish Talk

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