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Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Mish Talk - Hundreds of thousands of lawyers, teachers, students and air-traffic controllers protest pension Macron’s pension reform Cities Paralyzed French president Emmanuel macron is back in the hot seat over reform proposals. Over 800,000 protesters have taken to the streets in a Massive Strike that has paralyzed cities. Cities across France were paralyzed by a massive public transport strike […] Radio - US showing so many signs of a pending recession

Mish Talk - An unknown person or hedge fund bought 5,000 options on gold hitting $4,000 an ounce by June 2021. On Wednesday, an unknown buyer made a $1.75 Million Options Bet That Gold Would Triple to $4,000. The gold options market saw $1.75 million in block trades betting the precious metal could almost triple in more than a […]

Mish Talk - Sales jumped to the highest level since October 2007. The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000. Because of a huge upward revision, sales fell 0.7 percent below the revised September rate of 738,000, but is 31.6 percent above the October 2018 […]

Mish Talk - Bitcoin fell below the $7,000 mark on Sunday for the first time since May. Digital currencies were hammered this past week on fears of a China crackdown. For the first time in six month, Bitcoin slumps below the $7,000 mark. The recent tumble is being attributed to China’s recent announcement that it will crack down on […]

Mish Talk - Michael Bloomberg officially announced his intention today to run for President as a Democrat. The Democrat field officially expanded by one today as Bloomberg Says He Will Launch Democratic Presidential Bid. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s late entry into the presidential race Sunday puts pressure on an already crowded Democratic field, with an essentially limitless budget at the […]

Mish Talk - China is slowly and surely going down the path of Japan. It is aging rapidly as bad bank debts pile up. ‘Japanification’ Stalks the US, Europe, and China The Financial Times comments ‘Japanification’ stalks the US and Europe The FT did not include China in its discussion. Let’s take a look down that path. Japanification of […]

Mish Talk -   NAR spokesman Lawrence Yun was singing the praises of of a rebound in housing today. But comparisons are easy. Mortgage News Daily reports Existing Home Sales Resume Gains, Realtors Say More to Come. Existing-home sales got back on track in October, partially recovering from a 2.2 percent slip in September that ended a two-month winning […] Radio - Could US-China trade talks be derailed by support for Hong Kong protestors?

Mish Talk - Global debt just topped $250 trillion. Please ponder paying the interest on that, let alone the principal. Global Debt $250 Trillion and Rising Please note that Global debt surged to a record $250 trillion in the first half of 2019, led by the US and China. What about Global GDP? Global GDP Global GDP Numbers from the World […]

Mish Talk - Deutsche Bank plans 18,000 jobs cuts in robot strategy called “Operations 4.0”. Operations 4.0 Underway Deutsche Bank says Operations 4.0 is already underway. The plan is to Replace 18,000 Jobs With Robots. Mark Matthews, head of operations for Deutsche’s corporate and investment bank, told Financial News that machine learning algorithms “massively increased productivity” and “redistribute capacity.” […]

Mish Talk -   GDP Estimates are well below 1.0% following industrial production and retail sales estimates. The GDPNow model forecast for the fourth quarter took a dive today to 0.3% from 1.0% a week ago. Similarly, the Nowcast model fell to 0.4% from 0.7%. Pat Higgins at GDPow explains: “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) […]

Mish Talk - The quarterly report on household debt shows another record high. Delinquencies are up strongly as well. Let’s dive into some stats and charts from the New York Fed Third-Quarter Report on Household Debt and Credit. Key Points Aggregate household debt balances increased by $92 billion in the third quarter of 2019, a 0.7% increase, and now […]

Mish Talk - Speculative loans in China are souring rapidly. Ruzhou, a city of one million people provides examples. Struggling to keep its economy growing, the city of Ruzhou spent big, but is now asking its health care workers for cash to stay afloat. Begging Nurses for Money The New York Times asks How Bad Is China’s Debt? Ruzhou, […]

Mish Talk - China lead the world’s largest one day sales event with Alibaba’s annual “Single’s Day” shopping event. Alibaba’s annual “Single’s Day” shopping event tops Black Friday sales, in the US by a mile. Black Friday is the day after Thanksgiving. Reuters reports Alibaba Singles’ Day Sales Hit $12 billion in First Hour. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group […]

Mish Talk - GDPNow and Nowcast Forecasts for 4th-quarter GDP are 1% and 0.7% respectively. The 4th-quarter GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts start off on a weak footing, 1% or less. The saving grace for GDPNow is its estimate of Real Final Sales, the true bottom-line measure of the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time. Thus, GDPNow […]

Mish Talk - After denying he would run for president, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has changed his mind. Mr. Bloomberg announced in March he wouldn’t run for president because of the difficulty in winning the Democratic Party’s nomination. His adviser, Howard Wolfson, says Bloomberg just changed his mind out of concern that the current candidates […]

Mish Talk - I compared apartment prices as determined by the Rent Cafe to shelter indexes in the CPI. On October 19, I noted the National Average Rent Declined for the First Time in Two Years. Key Findings The national average rent went up by 3.2% in the past year but dipped by 0.1% month-over-month, reaching $1,471 in September […]

Mish Talk - Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan just provided a sound reason to expect a recession sooner rather than later. Wrong Way Greenspan If you weren’t worrying about recession before, former Fed Chair “Wrong Way” maestro Alan Greenspan just provided one: Greenspan Sees No Recession as Post-Crisis Deleveraging Endures. “The economy has been weakening, but we’re still in […]

Mish Talk - The demise of Merkel’s “Grand Coalition” is now so complete no one can possibly deny what’s happened. German elections last weekend, in the East German state of Thuringia, confirmed what what Mish readers knew years ago: There is absolutely nothing left of Angela Merkel’s grand coalition. Merkel’s CDU conservatives were blasted down from first to […]

Mish Talk - Economist Robert Shiller says there is no alternative to riding out bubbles. Please consider Stock Market Crash Near? Nobel Laureate Sees ‘Bubbles Everywhere’ When Nobel Laureate and “Irrational Exuberance” author Robert Shiller says he sees bubbles in the financial markets — you’d better listen up. He literally wrote the book on stock market crashes and bubbles […]

Mish Talk - GDPNow and Nowcast forecasts have converged at just under 2.0% despite dismal economic data, especially manufacturing. Since the beginning of September, the GDPNow and Nowcast GDP model forecasts have been unusually steady. And they have converged at just under two percent. This is despite a slew of bad reports as noted in Manufacturing Alarm Bells Ring […]

October 24th, 2019 | Brexit Remains Nasty Mess Radio - China-US Trade War marching on

Mish Talk - Kevin McAllister, Boeing’s Chief of Commercial Airplanes is the first high-level casualty since the second crash. Earlier today, Boeing announced Commercial Airplanes Chief Leaving Amid 737 MAX Crisis. Boeing Co. shuffled the ranks of top management on Tuesday, replacing the head of its jetliner business as it struggles to shore up confidence among customers, investors and […]

Mish Talk -   Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management has another sterling post in its third quarter review and outlook. Here are some snips from the latest Hoisington Management Quarterly Review by Lacy Hunt. World Dollar Liquidity The Fed’s balance sheet constriction reduced world dollar liquidity, which is defined as the monetary base plus foreign central bank holdings of U.S. […]
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