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Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Mish Talk - Department stores have been in a death spiral for years. Covid accelerated the trend. I went back over the advance retail sales starts for a closer look at what’s happening.Advance Retail Sales 1992-Present The above baseline chart shows sales have recovered above pre-Covid levels for the third month. For June, July, and August, sales topped […]

Mish Talk - Record low interest rates led to a surge in mortgage refinance originations. According to Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor, a surge in refinance lending driven by record-low rates lead to the largest quarterly volume on record.Key Points  Q2 2020 saw the largest quarterly origination volume on record with nearly $1.1 trillion in first lien mortgages originated in […]

Mish Talk - The Fed’s balance sheet is ballooning out of control. Nearly $7 Trillion in Securities, $2 Trillion MortgagesAs of August 26, 2020 the Fed’s Balance Sheet is nearly $7 trillion total of which $3.7 trillion are notes or bonds, and nearly $2 trillion in mortgages (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae). No End in Sight to Fed’s […]

Mish Talk - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will step down due to medical issues as soon as a successor is chosen. Shinzo Abe to ResignAbe, age 65, will resign because of an intestinal condition.  The ruling Liberal Democratic Party controls a majority in Parliament, which elects the prime minister so there will not be an election. Who’s On […]

Mish Talk - California legislators want a wealth tax on the rich, even if they flee. Soak the Rich SchemeCalifornia legislators seek a Wealth Tax that applies to anyone who has lived in the state for the last 10 years. A pack of Democratic lawmakers in California are proposing a wealth tax for the state’s richest citizens, forcing them to […]

Mish Talk -   Many hedge funds are stuck in a box hoping for a pullback to buy gold. Some have even bet against the rally. Understanding FuturesIn the futures world there is a short for every long. The first horizontal box has Large Specs, Small Specs, and Commercials. This is It’s Old COT reporting. The second box distinguishes producers […]

Mish Talk - Gold is on a tear. Historically and fundamentally what’s next? Jim Bianco at Bianco Research posted a couple of gold charts last week that he gave me permission to reproduce.Gold Goes Streaking Gold finished its 8th consecutive week higher. Since Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard in 1971, there have only been four instances when […]

Mish Talk - Gold futures just touched $1928 taking out the Intraday high of $1923.70 in 2011. 11-Week Run Gold is on a huge 11-week run. The last time gold did that was at the 2011 high. Is a pullback in order? A Gold COT chart says otherwise. Gold COT Chart Understanding Futures In the futures world there is […]

Mish Talk -   On a monthly chart, the last resistance point for gold is the $1923 peak in 2011. Why Gold?Tensions of all sorts are on the rise in the US , EU, and globally: Covid, employment, fiscal stimulus China (military and economic), and massive increases in money supply by the central banks, especially the Fed. Cup […]

Mish Talk - The global recession has no precedent in terms of synchronization. Deflationary ConsequencesLacy Hunt at Hoisington Management explains the deflationary consequences of the current global situation in its Second Quarter 2020 Review.Hunt commented on the four economic challenges central bankers face as noted below.Four Economic Challenges Over 90% of the world’s economies are contracting. The present global […]

Mish Talk - Shelton faces a Senate Bank review on Tuesday. Loose Money and the Roots of the CrisisShelton has favored a return to the gold standard although recently seemed to back off such a hard stance. On September 30, 2008, Shelton wrote a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed Loose Money And the Roots Of the Crisis. These days, we […]

Mish Talk - Starts and permits improve but remain below pre-covid levels and levels of a year ago. Here are the key numbers from this mornings Residential New Construction report.Building Permits Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000. This is 2.1 percent above the revised May rate of 1,216,000, […]

Mish Talk - New home sales in May jumped 16.6% to 676,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. The huge percentage jump is from a downward revision. The Census Bureau revised April from 623,000 units to 580,000 units.Sales vs Expectations Mortgage News Daily commented “For the second month in a row, sales of newly constructed homes outdistanced expectations.” Factoring […]

Mish Talk - Fear of evictions are on the rise as missed payments were 30% for two months. A study shows Missed Payments Stabilize In June At Alarming 30% Level. 37 percent of renters and 26 percent of homeowners are concerned that in the next six months they will face an eviction or foreclosure. This hardship continues to be […]

Mish Talk - Initial unemployment claims dipped slightly to 1,508,000. For the 13th consecutive week initial unemployment claims topped the 1.5 million mark.Initial Claims 1980-Present To put things into proper perspective, initial unemployment claims never topped the 1 million mark before Covid-19. Now we have had 13 consecutive weeks in which claims topped 1.5 million. Econoday Consensus The […]

Mish Talk -  the wake of a disastrous Income and Outlays report, the GDPNow forecast is an astonishing -51.2% The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecasts a number we all hope is wrong. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of […]

Mish Talk - Boeing announced more layoffs after recording zero orders but 108 cancellations. Boeing announced over 12,000 Layoffs in the wake of plane cancellations and dearth of new orders. Boeing Co (BA.N) said Wednesday it was eliminating more than 12,000 U.S. jobs, including involuntary layoffs of 6,770 U.S. workers as the largest American planemaker restructures in the face of […]

Mish Talk - Barry Ritholtz, Author of Bailout Nation, just got a bailout. Please note the $1.3 billion Ritholtz Wealth Firm Takes Out a PPP Loan. Count Ritholtz Wealth Management among the $1bn-plus RIAs which have taken out government-backed coronavirus relief loans. Reformed Broker Under Pressure The RIA’s chief executive, Josh Brown had this to say in a Reformed Broker blog […]

Mish Talk - S Congress has authorized several trillion dollars in Covid-fighting stimulus programs. So what’s holding the dollar up?I Think Outside the USI remain amused by all the calls of hyperinflation and high inflation given the Fed has turned on the printing presses. However, currencies cannot be viewed in isolation. To those expecting a total US dollar […]

Mish Talk - Numerous chain reaction ripple impacts will delay the economic recovery. Let’s start with a look at car rental companies. No Magic AnswersBankruptcies happen when there is too much debt leverage accompanied by some sort of economic shock. For example, Hertz filed for bankruptcy on Friday. Now, the entire rental industry is Scrambling for Answers, but there […]

Mish Talk - ‘ 9 percent of mortgages are in forbearance but the pace of increase has tapered off. The latest data from the McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that the surge in mortgage forbearance plans has tapered off.Estimated Monthly Advances Key Points As of May 19, 2020, 4.75 million homeowners , 9.0% of all mortgages, have entered into COVID-19 […]

Mish Talk - Everyone was not adversely impacted by Covid-19, especially in China. A Tweet Thread by Michael Pettis explains. During my Sunday seminar a student made a presentation with preliminary data on how Covid-19 has affected the wealth and the income of different households in China, ranked by income. I sort of expected a broadly linear relationship in which […]

Mish Talk - The IIF estimates that China’s total debt hit 317 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020. Michael Pettis at China China Financial Markets comments on China’s debt in a Tweet Thread. Thread For those interested in China’s debt profile, this article has a lot of information, to which I have […]

Mish Talk - Housing starts fell 30.2%, Permits 20.8%, and completions 8.1% due to Covid-19. The Residential Construction Report stats record the the greatest month-over-month decline in the history of the stats. The housing data dates to 1959.Starts vs Econoday Consensus Starts: 0.891 Million Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Consensus Starts: 0.968 Million Permits vs Econoday Consensus Permits: 1.074 Million Seasonally Adjusted […]

Mish Talk - On the heels of miserable retail sales numbers comes the worst ever industrial production numbers. The Fed’s Industrial Production report provides another grim look at the Covid-19 wrecked economy. Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led […]
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