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Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Mish Talk - As stores shutter and business grinds to a halt, what are the store owners supposed to do? Bloomberg reports 47,000 U.S. Stores Closed in About a Week Over Coronavirus. In a little over a week, American retail ground to a near-total halt. More than 47,000 chain stores across the U.S. temporarily shut their doors in 10 […]

Mish Talk - The Fed fired an array of new market measures this morning. The Market rallied then had second thoughts. The Fed hopes to unclog corporate and municipal debt markets with its New Bazooka of Unlimited Interventions. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday rolled out an extraordinary new array of programs aimed at blunting the “severe disruptions” to […]

Mish Talk - The hotel, airline, and travel-related industries are reeling. Marriott alone will lay off tens of thousands of workers. The Wall Street Journal reports Marriott Begins Furloughing Tens of Thousands of Employees. Marriott International Inc., the world’s largest hotel company with nearly 1.4 million rooms world-wide, said it is starting to furlough what it expects will be […]

Mish Talk - How often have you heard the stock market looks a year ahead of a recession? Stock Market is Not Forward LookingA widespread myth persists that the stock market is a leading indicator of recessions, providing a year or more warning on average before one starts. Actually, the stock market is a coincident indicator of sentiment […]

Mish Talk - Crude extended it plunge today. For the year, it’s down 32.5%. Crude Last Six Months Credit Implosion Coming Up A lot of leveraged drillers and crude suppliers dependent on prices above $50 will see a credit implosion. That’s just a start. A Supply Shock and a Demand Shock are Coming Up. Deflationary Outcome As noted previously, […]

Mish Talk - This morning the Fed made an emergency 50 Basis point rate cut. More are coming. Note: The Effective Fed Funds Rate of 1.090 is my guess. The New York Fed will post it tomorrow.This morning I commented Fed Makes Surprise Inter-Meeting 50 Basis Point Rate Cut. Strong inversions and Fed Fund Futures were the key to […]

Mish Talk - The JP Morgan, Markit Global Manufacturing PMI signals a global recession. Global manufacturing suffers steepest contraction in over a decade as COVID-19 outbreak hits supply chains and demand according to Markit.Six Key Points Global Manufacturing PMI slumps to 47.2 Survey-record contraction in China; rest of the world stagnates on average Global trade falls at fastest pace […]

Mish Talk - China’s manufacturing and service PMIs plunged to their worst readings in history. In the midst of a coronavirus pandemic, China Posts Weakest Factory Activity on Record The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index plunged to 35.7 in February from 50 the previous month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday, much lower than […]

Mish Talk - Treasury yields continued a massive plunge today with new record lows. I sense a double rate cut by the Fed on March 18. CME Fedwatch Odds If these yields hold the Fed will practically be forced to cut interest rates by 50 basis points on March 18. As it stands a quarter point cut would […]

Mish Talk - It’s now baked in the cake. The Fed will cut rates on March 18 and most likely at least twice more. According to CME Fedwatch the odds of a rate cut in March jumped to 96.3% today from 8.9% a week ago.Looking ahead to December, it’s highly likely at least two additional cuts are on the way. […]

Mish Talk - With stocks down 3% a reader wanted to know where the money is going? Q: If the money is fleeing the stock market, bond yields down, where is the money flowing?A: Nowhere More precisely, the premise is invalid. Money does not and cannot flow out of equities into bonds or anything else. Nor can there […]

Mish Talk - The 30-year long bond yield crashed to a record low, gold jumped, and equities hammered as fears of a pandemic mount. The stock market has finally come to grips with the notion the coronavirus is not contained. Cases are rising exponentially in South Korea, Italy, Japan, and Iran.Equities Smashed, Gold Jumps S&P 500: -3.2% Nasdaq: […]

Mish Talk - Car sales in China for the first two weeks in February are down 92% from a year ago. When you are locked in your home for weeks, with no income, and people are dying in the streets, guess what happens to retail sales.Bloomberg reports China Car Sales Tumble 92% in First Half of February on Virus […]

Mish Talk - Gold is in a major breakout in the Euro and on the cusp in the Yen. Can the US dollar price be far behind? Gold hit a new record high today for those buying in euros. Let’s investigate gold in US dollar terms and in the Yen.Gold Gold Priced in Yen One Hell of a […]

Mish Talk - The January Cass Freight Shipping Index is more bad news for the global economy. The Cass Freight Shipping Index is down 9.4% year-over-year, the largest decline since 2009. And this is for January, before the Coronavirus disruption. The turn of the calendar didn’t leave the bad news in 2019, as the Cass Freight Index showed continued weakness […]

Mish Talk - The Bloomberg Startup Barometer, a measure of business environment health, is in a steep plunge. The Bloomberg Startups Barometer is a weekly indicator that tracks the overall health of the business environment for private technology companies based in the U.S.The index peaked at 1545.32 on June 24, 2019. On February 10, 2020 it fell to 833.74. The […] Radio - British Pound after Brexit

Mish Talk - If you believe you are diversifying by buying an index ETF, you are mistaken. Dave Rosenberg had an interesting set of observations in today’s Breakfast with Dave. The five largest stocks (Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft and Amazon) now comprise nearly one-fifth of the entire S&P 500 market cap. This is the highest concentration since the dotcom […]

Mish Talk - Mortgage rates are approaching record lows. Investigate refinancing. If you have a mortgage, do yourself a favor and check out if it makes sense to refinance.My contact at Black Knight pinged me this morning with these observations: The Freddie Mac 30-year average is now 3.45%, the lowest level in almost 3.5 years and just 14 […]

Mish Talk - Economic contagion due to the coronavirus is underway. Hyundai halted production. Sony, Apple, and Ford issued warnings. If you can’t get parts, you can’t build cars.And due to a coronavirus-related manufacturing halt in China, Hyundai to Shut Down Some Production. Hyundai, the world’s fifth-largest carmaker, announced Tuesday that it was suspending production lines at its car […] Radio - When SARS hit, China just 5% of world economy, now 20%

Mish Talk - The effective Fed Fund Rate jumped today, but what does it mean? Highest All YearI do not know the cause but the Effective Rate jump seems unusual.​ My Conversation With the 30-Year Long Bond In My Conversation With the 30-Year Long Bond I noted a “solid wall of inversions” from the three-year note through the Fed Funds Rate. The […]

Mish Talk - Stocks are hammered across the board today in a coronavirus-related sea of red. Yesterday’s rally into the close on Amazon earnings is now a huge confirmed bull trap.As I type, we are heading into the close. And it looks ugly.Equity Numbers S&P 500 Futures: -67 Down 2.04% Nasdaq Futures: -219 Down 2.37% Dow: -592 Down […]

Mish Talk - The Fed held its baseline rate at 150 to 175 basis points. It also made two tiny changes in its statement. Statement Tracker The above from the Wall Street Journal Statement Tracker. Two Changes Spending is now moderate, not strong Inflation is “returning to” rather then “nearing” the objective. Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Mish Talk - UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson gave the go ahead today for the UK to use some Huawei 5G technology. Despite intense pressure form the Trump administration, the WSJ reports U.K. Allows Huawei to Build Parts of 5G Network. The U.K. government has given the green light for Huawei Technologies Co. to build part of its next-generation […]
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