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Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Mish Talk - Golden Week, a seven-day Chinese holiday, is traditionally a peak period for home sales. This year, sales plummeted. The South China Post reports ‘Golden Week’ Property Sales Plunge in Major Chinese Cities. Property sales in China’s major cities saw one of their worst “golden week” holidays in years, as buyers held back amid a slowing economy […]

Mish Talk - Dissent within the ECB over QE is at unprecedented levels and rising. But what does “counterproductive” really mean? Several members of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council are against the ECB buying more bonds. Add Austrian central bank Governor Robert Holzmann to the list. Holzmann says Draghi’s QE Policy Is Counterproductive “The view was that the […]

Mish Talk -   Widespread power outages leave million of Californians without electric power. ​Pacific Gas and Electric Co (PG&E) has imposed unprecedented shutoffs leaving millions without power. The shutdowns are safety precaution to prevent wildfires. California Governor Gavin Newsom said the widespread electricity shutdown is “unacceptable.” “We’re seeing a scale and scope of something that no state in […]

Mish Talk - Powell was busy yapping away about the need to control interest rates, looking more than a bit foolish in the process. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the Fed Will Increase Supply of Bank Reserves, but supposedly it’s not QE. The Federal Reserve will soon increase its purchases of short-term Treasury securities to avoid a recurrence […]

Mish Talk - A third of auto loans in 2019 had a term period over six years. People cannot afford the cars they are buying. Seven-Year Loan Surge America’s middle class can’t afford its cars. A surge in the Seven-Year Auto Loan rate provides all the evidence you need. Walk into an auto dealership these days and you might walk […]

October 2nd, 2019 | Global Warming Fraud Exposed

HoweStreet.com Radio - US unlikely to see negative interest rates

Mish Talk - Many problems today including deficits spending, trade deficits, income inequality have their roots in a 1971. Nixon Shock A reader asks “What Forced Nixon to Close the Gold Window in 1971?” The answer is called “Nixon Shock“. Nixon wanted to fight the war in Vietnam, not raise taxes, and not hike interest rates to finance […]

Mish Talk - Home flipping is up and so is flip financing. Flippers sing the praises of increased leverage. The flippers are back and the competition fierce as there are fewer and fewer foreclosed properties to bid on. Haven’t we been down this road before? As the competition heats up, Lending to House Flippers Hits a 13-Year High. It […]

Mish Talk - Hoping to force China to forge a trade deal to his liking, Trump threatens to delist Chinese firms from US exchanges. Radical Escalation of Trade War In what would be a radical escalation of the trade war, Trump Considers Delisting Chinese Firms From U.S. Markets. President Donald Trump’s administration is considering the possibility of delisting Chinese […]

Mish Talk - The Fed is no longer talking about zero-bound but effective lower bound. What’s the difference? Where is it? Change Observation ​ The self-described “BondFreak” noticed a shift in Fed vocabulary from “zero bound” to “effective lower bound”. Why? Powell Ready to Cut Rates to “Effective Lower Bound” via “Conventional” Policy A Google search for “effective […]

Mish Talk - Cryptocurrencies went on a deep dive today. Some blame new futures, others cite technical factors. Bitcoin sank slowly all day then cascaded over a steep waterfall at about 1:30PM. 24-Hour Crypto Crash Altcoins Lead Cryptocurrencies Lower Bloomberg reports Altcoins Lead Cryptocurrencies Lower After Bitcoin Futures Start Slow Bitcoin tumbled as much as 17% to $8,087, the […]

Mish Talk - The interest rate business model is dead. Negative interest rates killed it, with no replacement in sight. Anne Kunz and Holger Zschäpitz co-authored an excellent article for Welt (in German) called the Interest Rate Business Model is Dead. Here are some excerpts via Google translate with many of my own modifications. For example, the title itself […]

Mish Talk - Last week, Denmark’s central bank cut its deposit rate to -0.75%. Banks will pass this on to large customers. Please consider Denmark’s Jyske Bank Lowers its Negative Rates on Deposits. Jyske Bank said on Friday people with more than $111,100 in their bank accounts will be charged more for their deposits as it seeks to pass […]

Mish Talk - Movement by the EU, by Boris Johnson, and most importantly by Ireland suggests a good chance of a reasonable deal. Compromise Movements Boris Johnson has had a series of good discussions with Ireland. Out of the blue, Jean Claude Juncker gave an optimistic interview even to the point of scrapping the backstop. Eurointelligence has an […]

Mish Talk - Multiple cities in Illinois are forced to cut police, fire departments and other city services to fund pension plans. Third Domino Illinois does not allow cities to file for bankruptcy but that is the best word to describe the sate of many. East St. Louis is the latest. What Follows is a Guest Post from […]

Mish Talk -   Bitcoin has been consolidating for months. Generally, and technically speaking, this suggests a big move is coming. I have no position in Bitcoin and I doubt that changes although I do not rule out a token amount in certain circumstances. That said, I do find the technology fascinating and I occasionally look at charts. […]

Mish Talk - Traditional retailers are getting killed by online shopping, especially Amazon. Five charts tell the story. Core Retail Sales Core retail sales are retail sales excluding autos, auto parts, and gasoline. I calculate 17.9% not 20% as shown in the above chart. But this is nitpicking. I loved the idea in the lead chart, pulled off […]

Mish Talk - In the wake of the attack on Saudi Arabia, crude futures jumped as much as 20%. Treasury yields are flat. One is wrong! Oil Futures Up 20% The Financial Times reports Oil prices jump 20% After Attacks Halve Saudi Output. This is in the wake of a Saudi Oilfield Attack over the weekend. Questions Abound By Yemen, Iraq, […]

Mish Talk - The Shutdown amounts to a loss of some five million barrels a day, roughly 5% of the world’s daily production of crude. Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen claimed responsibility for a Coordinated Drone Strike Shutting Down About Half of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Output. A coordinated drone strike hit at the heart of Saudi oil production on […]

Mish Talk - Zimbabwe raised its benchmark interest rate to 70% in an attempt to curtail a second round of hyperinflation. Zimbabwe Hyperinflation is Back Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was a period of currency instability in Zimbabwe that, using Cagan’s definition of hyperinflation [50% in a month], began in February 2007. During the height of inflation from 2008 to 2009, it […]

Mish Talk -   Australia gave “cash back” in July to those making up to $126,000. The move failed to inspire consumer confidence. Tax Refund Scheme In July, the government of Australia concocted a $1080 Tax Refund Scheme. The maximum offset of $1080 will be available to taxpayers with taxable incomes of between $48,000 and $90,000. The offset is […]

Mish Talk - Numerous articles note a softening of Boris Johnson’s stance, especially in regards to Ireland. Let’s take a look. Failure of Statecraft In Dublin, on September 9, Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) held a joint press conference in Dublin on the backstop. ​ Boris Johnson said the UK could get through […]

Mish Talk - A Bank of the West study finds that 68% of millennials regret buying a home. Please consider the polling results of a Study on the American Dream. What Best Describes Your Views? Key Findings 3% of Millennial live the American Dream. 16% of Boomers live the American Dream. 25% have abandoned the American Dream. 11% overall […]

Mish Talk -   Alpine Macro has an interesting article on risk. They provide two extremes, melt up and melt down. Melt Up or Melt Down? Please consider some snips from Fat Tails. Everyone on Wall Street is freaking out over the 2/10-year yield curve inversion, with recession being the most feared outcome. I am fully aware of the […]

September 5th, 2019 | Brexit, US-China Trade Talks

HoweStreet.com Radio - US Manufacturing and Consumer Confidence
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