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Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Mish Talk - Boeing announced more layoffs after recording zero orders but 108 cancellations. Boeing announced over 12,000 Layoffs in the wake of plane cancellations and dearth of new orders. Boeing Co (BA.N) said Wednesday it was eliminating more than 12,000 U.S. jobs, including involuntary layoffs of 6,770 U.S. workers as the largest American planemaker restructures in the face of […]

Mish Talk - Barry Ritholtz, Author of Bailout Nation, just got a bailout. Please note the $1.3 billion Ritholtz Wealth Firm Takes Out a PPP Loan. Count Ritholtz Wealth Management among the $1bn-plus RIAs which have taken out government-backed coronavirus relief loans. Reformed Broker Under Pressure The RIA’s chief executive, Josh Brown had this to say in a Reformed Broker blog […]

Mish Talk - S Congress has authorized several trillion dollars in Covid-fighting stimulus programs. So what’s holding the dollar up?I Think Outside the USI remain amused by all the calls of hyperinflation and high inflation given the Fed has turned on the printing presses. However, currencies cannot be viewed in isolation. To those expecting a total US dollar […]

Mish Talk - Numerous chain reaction ripple impacts will delay the economic recovery. Let’s start with a look at car rental companies. No Magic AnswersBankruptcies happen when there is too much debt leverage accompanied by some sort of economic shock. For example, Hertz filed for bankruptcy on Friday. Now, the entire rental industry is Scrambling for Answers, but there […]

Mish Talk - ‘ 9 percent of mortgages are in forbearance but the pace of increase has tapered off. The latest data from the McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker shows that the surge in mortgage forbearance plans has tapered off.Estimated Monthly Advances Key Points As of May 19, 2020, 4.75 million homeowners , 9.0% of all mortgages, have entered into COVID-19 […]

Mish Talk - Everyone was not adversely impacted by Covid-19, especially in China. A Tweet Thread by Michael Pettis explains. During my Sunday seminar a student made a presentation with preliminary data on how Covid-19 has affected the wealth and the income of different households in China, ranked by income. I sort of expected a broadly linear relationship in which […]

Mish Talk - The IIF estimates that China’s total debt hit 317 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020. Michael Pettis at China China Financial Markets comments on China’s debt in a Tweet Thread. Thread For those interested in China’s debt profile, this article has a lot of information, to which I have […]

Mish Talk - Housing starts fell 30.2%, Permits 20.8%, and completions 8.1% due to Covid-19. The Residential Construction Report stats record the the greatest month-over-month decline in the history of the stats. The housing data dates to 1959.Starts vs Econoday Consensus Starts: 0.891 Million Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Consensus Starts: 0.968 Million Permits vs Econoday Consensus Permits: 1.074 Million Seasonally Adjusted […]

Mish Talk - On the heels of miserable retail sales numbers comes the worst ever industrial production numbers. The Fed’s Industrial Production report provides another grim look at the Covid-19 wrecked economy. Total industrial production fell 11.2 percent in April for its largest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the index, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led […]

Mish Talk - The Wisconsin Supreme court tossed governor Gov. Tony Evers’ stay at home orders. In a 4-3 Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling, Wisconsin Now Without COVID-19 Restrictions. Conservative justices on the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’ monthslong stay-at-home order in a ruling released Wednesday. The 4-3 decision marked the first time a state’s highest […]

Mish Talk - Home are priced for perfection and few can afford them. I expect prices to decline. The National Association of Realtors will not like this post, but home prices need to come down, and they will.Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, home prices were on a trend that was unlikely to continue for long. Median Home Price […]

Mish Talk - ADP reported a massive decline of over 20 million jobs. Let’s investigate losses by size of firm. Earlier today I commented ADP Reports 20 Million Jobs Lost: A Disaster Comparison Three WaysThis is a followup on losses and percentage losses by corporation size. Nonfarm Private Payrolls March 2020 Nonfarm Private Payrolls April 2020 Change in Nonfarm […]

Mish Talk - Homebuyer interest is down amdid rising concerns about seemingly everything. Can virtual tours, phone calls and video conferences replace the real thing?Point2Point conducted a survey of real estate agents and professionals nationwide to find out.So far, the answer is no as Real Estate Agents Assess the Post-Pandemic Future of Homebuying. The bulk of the agents who […]

Mish Talk - Spain needs another rescue. Its deficit and debt violate Eurozone treaty rules. Deficit rule violation is across the board. At least Spain admits it.As translated from El Mundo, Spain Needs a New Era of Adjustment. In simple terms, Spain admits it needs another bailout. This is a Mish-modified translation. An economic collapse is underway. Spain officially […]

Mish Talk -   Subprime car lenders report a sharp drop in auto loan payments. In a sign of upcoming trouble, Subprime Car Buyers Miss Loan Payments. Credit Acceptance Corp., the lender to car buyers with subprime credit scores, warned it’s seeing a sharp drop-off in payments as people shift their financial priorities to get through the coronavirus pandemic. […]

Mish Talk - Mortgages in forbearance are on a steep rise due to Covid-19. Black Knight released the following points regarding mortgage forbearance. According to the Black Knight McDash Flash Forbearance Tracker, as of April 23, 2020, more than 3.4 million homeowners – or 6.4% of all mortgages – have entered into COVID-19 mortgage forbearance plans This population represents $754 billion […]

Mish Talk - Existing home sales fell to a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate of 5.27 million compared to an estimated 5.335 million SAAR. The lead chart is from the NAR. In March, single-family sales were down 8.1% and condominiums sales were down 11.7% compared to last month. Compared to a year ago. single-family home sales were up 1.3% while […]

Mish Talk - There is nowhere to store the oil, but someone is obliged to take delivery. This is what happens when someone has to take delivery and no one wants to because there is nowhere to store the oil.Those who thought $1 was cheap, thought wrong. You now get paid as much as $40 to take delivery […]

Mish Talk - Illinois pension plans are in serious trouble. So serious, the states seeks a federal bailout. Cities are in trouble too! The president of the Illinois State Senate seeks $40 billion to help the pension system, fund unemployment insurance and aid hospitals and cities according to the New York Times. The letter, sent this week by State […]

Mish Talk - Housing starts took a huge dive in March. April rates to be much worse. Economists at Econoday expected housing starts would fall to 1.35 million on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). That’s a decline of 15.6% from the February report of 1.599 million SAAR.Instead, starts fell to 1.216 million SAAR, a decline of 22.3% according […]

Mish Talk - A slew of economic reports came out today, all of them terrible. But the next set will be worse. Inquiring minds are investigating the Advancer Retail Sales Report for March 2020.Ten Highlights Total: -8.7% Motor Vehicles and Parts: -25.6% Furniture: -26.8% Food and Beverage Stores: +25.6% Gasoline: -17.2 Clothing Stores: -50.5% Sporting Goods Stores: -23.3% General Merchandise […]

Mish Talk - Michigan is one of the hardest hit states when it comes to Covid19 layoffs. Let’s take a look at the stats. Michigan Live reports Over 1 Million Michigan Residents Have Filed for Unemployment. More than 1 million people – over a quarter of Michigan’s workforce – have filed for unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic, the state’s […]

Mish Talk - The number of those age 65 and older and the size of their debt have risen. It’s the amount of debt that’s the killer. The new retirement problem is Over 60 With Decades Left on the Mortgage. A growing number of older Americans are carrying mortgage debt, and it will likely become more burdensome as the […]

Mish Talk - The CPI declined 0.4% month-over-month in March, with gasoline and energy leading the way. The BLS CPI report shows an event that is quote infrequent. A negative Core CPI. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.4 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since January 2015. The index for […]

Mish Talk - Fed minutes show “severely constrained” markets. Separately, the Richmond Fed president asks some interesting questions. Fed MinutesThe Minutes of the Latest FOMC Meeting are out. For a change they are interesting, and also very long. Eight Key Points Treasury market functioning was severely impaired. Market depth was extremely thin, and bid-ask spreads widened sharply. Financing conditions for […]
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