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Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Radio - Could a US recession have relatively few job losses?

Mish Talk - As expected, the Fed signaled gradual rate hikes are coming. The Fed released the Minutes of the September 26, 2018 FOMC Meetingtoday. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have […]

Mish Talk - Too Much Debt: Financial helpline counselors are at capacity as record numbers of older Australians struggle in poverty. Down under, a Record Number of Older Australians are in Financial Trouble. Key Points The National Debt Helpline — a federal government-run financial counselling service — said it’s on track to receive a record number of cases through […]

Mish Talk - The Gold COT report shows gold shorts piling on in addition to long liquidation. Meanwhile, the price of gold is rising. Gold Daily Chart ​ This is an incredibly price-bullish setup. Buy Gold. Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Mish Talk - The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Forecasts 4.2% GDP Growth. Nowcast is 2.3%. Inventories contribute 2.2 % to GDPNow. The gap between the GDPNow and Nowcast Third-Quarter GDP estimates widened slightly to 1.9 percentage points. The latest estimates are 4.2% for GDPNow on October 10 and 2.3% for Nowcast on October 12. The inventory contribution for […]

Mish Talk - EU ministers agreed to binding cuts in CO2 emissions of 35% by 2030. The German auto industry won’t be able to deliver. The Telegraph reports Berlin court orders German capital to ban most diesel vehicles on 11 major roads to counter pollution. Hamburg was first in May. Stuttgart, home of Mercedes and Porsche, was second in […]

Mish Talk - All booms end in recession. So who will accept the blame for the next one? Of course, nobody will volunteer to take any portion of the blame. Yet fingers will most assuredly be pointing. Trump will blame the Fed for hiking too fast. The Fed will blame Trump for starting a trade war. Scarcely anyone […]

Mish Talk - The IMF is finally warning that there may be an emerging market crisis. Hello IMF, it’s already here. Look ahead. The IMF is perpetually late in its forecasts. Here’s the latest hoot: IMF Warns of Possible Emerging-Markets Crisis. A new study by the International Monetary Fund projects emerging economies will muddle through recent market turbulence without […]

Mish Talk - The BLS says wages are rising faster than the CPI. Prospective home buyers would not agree. If you do not already own a home it’s getting harder and harder to buy one. Meanwhile, rent outstrips wage growth. Key Ideas Those who seek to buy their first home will have a very difficult time finding one […]

Mish Talk - 18,927 product codes provide countless ways to avoid tariffs by relabeling. Evidence suggests that’s happening. Switching around the 18,927 codes that identify imported goods is an increasingly popular way some Chinese exporters are ducking American tariffs according to the Wall Street Journal report: New Era of Tariff Dodges. Every product imported into the U.S. carries […]

Mish Talk - New car sales in Australia are down for the sixth consecutive month. The real numbers are worse. News AU reports New-Car Sales Hit the Brakes for the Sixth Month in September. Here’s the punchline: Dealers report the downturn is sharper than what the reported sales figures show. Official figures show new-car sales hit the brakes for […]

Mish Talk - The above chart plots sales, held for sale, sold, and starts. It doesn’t quite add up, but it’s close. Comparing New Home Sales and New Residential Construction I totaled the above numbers in various ways and they did not quite match up. The Census Bureau explains. We are often asked why the numbers of new single-family housing […]

Mish Talk - Year over year employment is up an average of 136,000 per month. Jobs are up an average of 211,000 a month. Employment, a household survey measure, is more volatile than jobs, an establishment survey measure. The divergence is large even though the trends look alike. Jobs vs. Employment Level ​ The trends are in the […]

Mish Talk - Amazon discovered a hardware hack while testing servers supplied by a Chinese company. Apple was hit as well. Bloomberg has a fascinating report on how China used a tiny chip to infiltrate U.S. companies. The attack by Chinese spies reached almost 30 U.S. companies, including Amazon and Apple, by compromising America’s technology supply chain, according […] Radio - Chinese Real Estate Bubble now creating a Rent Bubble

Mish Talk - Rental loans, intended to ease the cost of living in big cities, contribute to China’s property bubble mess. Once an economic bubble is inflated, it is damn near impossible to let the air out slowly. China’s effort to rein in a property bubble by making it harder to buy homes has the price of rent […]

Mish Talk - The carnival continues with interesting twists such as Ford’s paper about using self-hypnosis to create memories. The Federalist reports Kavanaugh Accuser Co-Authored Study Citing Use of Hypnosis to Retrieve Memories. Christine Blasey Ford, a California woman who has accused Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh of attempted rape in the 1980’s, co-authored an academic study that cited […]

Mish Talk - A surge in gov’t spending kept construction spending in the green by 0.1%. Private spending is down and trending lower. Construction spending reports are volatile and heavily revised, but given the weakness in most housing reports, the Monthly Construction Report for August rings true. Total Construction Construction spending during August 2018 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted […]

Mish Talk - Sentiment is down for the 3rd straight quarter in McKinsey survey of businesses. Trump’s trade policies at heart of it. According to the McKinsey Economic Conditions Snapshot, September 2018, business sentiment is down for the third quarter. The global outlook is worsening at a faster pace than local conditions. As they regard economic conditions at […]

Mish Talk - The 15-year average mortgage rate is 4.22%. The 30-year rate is 4.72%. These are the highest rates since early 2011. Bleakley Advisory Group’s Peter Boockvar says the Fed and Global Central Banks Could Push the U.S. into Recession. Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early 2011 ​ Mortgage News Daily sees things slightly differently but the the disagreement […]

Mish Talk - GPD estimates generally tanked this week. Curiously, the Nowcast forecast rose. I can show why. GDPNow The GDPNow forecast fell from 4.4% on September 26 to 3.8% on September 27, then to 3.6% on September 28. Disastrous trade data accounted for 0.5 percentage points of the drop on the 27th. Income and expenditures accounted for the entire […]

Mish Talk - Durable goods orders jumped 4.5% in August. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.1%. The Census Department report on Advance Durable Goods shows orders rose 4.5% in August. New Orders New orders for manufactured durable goods in August increased $11.1 billion or 4.5 percent to $259.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two […]

Mish Talk - I apologize for the diversion from political slime into actual economic reporting. But let’s discuss new home sales. Hooray! The census bureau reports new home sales rose 3.5%. There’s only one problem: revisions. From Econoday At 629,000, August’s annualized sales pace for new homes came in right at expectations but is offset by sharp downward […]

Mish Talk - The stage is set for a major confrontation between the US and EU over Trump’s sanctions on Iran. The Wall Street Journal reports Europe Plans ‘Special Vehicle’ to Maintain Companies’ Ties to Iran, Avoid U.S. Sanctions. The European Union said late Monday that it would establish a special payment channel to allow European and other companies […]

Mish Talk - Eurointelligence says the fog over the English Channel is lifting as odds of “no-deal” rise. The Independent says After Salzburg, Theresa May’s Brexit Plans are in Shreds, and that a Norway or Canada Model is her only option. Theresa May looked shocked but should not really have been surprised by her humiliation at the EU’s […]
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