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Mike 'Mish' Shedlock

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Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Mish Talk - Huge portions of the the yield curve are inverted. Most of the inversions are by tiny amounts, but it’s another warning. With growing concern over the Coronavirus, yields dropped again today and portions of the yield curve are inverted out to seven years.For example, the yield on the 7-year not is lower than the yield […]

Mish Talk - US futures are poised to gap down at the Monday opening. Things can easily change overnight but this is likely to stick. What is a Gap? A gap up occurs when the market or an individual issue opens higher than the high on the previous day. A gap down occurs when the market or an […]

Mish Talk - Here’s a hoot: Bitcoin is allegedly on track to hit $100,000 by 2021. Bitcoin Q&A Q: Where will Bitcoin be in 2021? A: I don’t know, nor does anyone else. On Track? For What? Please consider BTC on track for $100,000 in 2021 by William Suberg. Stock-to-Flow measures the Bitcoin price using two factors: the stock — […]

Mish Talk - David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today’s Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss. Rosenberg notes “Private fixed investment has declined two quarters in a row as of 2019 Q3. Since 1980, this has only happened twice outside of a recession.” Here is the chart he presented. Fixed Investment, […]

Mish Talk - The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan have now embraced climate change as part of their mission. It’s bad enough that central bankers are clueless about inflation. They now want their hands in another thing they do not understand and cannot control even if they did. Fed’s Core Mission Change Lael Brainard, […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - What was in Phase One China-US Trade Deal?

Mish Talk - Boeing is now testing its 737 Max fix in real planes. In doing so, Boeing has uncovered yet another problem. Well, It Worked in the Simulator Yet another problem came to light when testing a 737 Max fix designed to prevent fatal the crashes that have kept the plane grounded since March. This problem surfaced […]

Mish Talk - The GDPNow forecast fell from 2.3% to 1.8% this week on weak retail sales. The Nowcast estimate rose 0.1%. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model forecast for the 4th quarter fell a half a point this week whereas the New York Fed Nowcast Model rose a tenth of a point . GDPNow Tracking The yellow highlight shows the half-point drop […]

Mish Talk - China posted another quarter of 6% annualized GDP. That’s the slowest in 29 years. The Financial Times reports China GDP grows at slowest pace in 29 years China’s economy last year grew at the lowest rate since 1990 while the country’s birth rate fell to a record low, highlighting the domestic challenges facing Beijing despite a […]

Mish Talk - Retail sales rose 0.3 percent in June, essentially in line with expectations after taking revisions into consideration. The U.S. Census Bureau announced the following Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for December 2019. Retail sales were $529.6 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent from November and 5.8 percent above December 2018. Total sales for […]

Mish Talk - New plane orders at Boeing are the lowest since 2005 and deliveries the lowest since 2005. Blame the Boeing 737 Max. Due to never-ending 737 Max issues, plane orders at Airbus have soared while Boeing Orders Fall to 16-Year Low. Quick Comparison Facts Boeing New Orders: 246 new orders for commercial jets of all types before […]

Mish Talk - A Fed study shows foreign banks can more easily take advantage of Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) than US banks. PLease consider the New York Fed report How Did the Fed Funds Market Change When Excess Reserves Were Abundant? Major Participants in the Fed Funds Market When Excess Reserves Were Abundant Lenders – Federal Home Loan […]

Mish Talk - Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is back in action doing what he does best, making a fool out of himself. Been Bernanke’s Tool Shed Former Chairman Bernanke says Fed Has Many Tools to Deter Recession. In a paper presented at a conference in San Diego on Saturday, Mr. Bernanke said asset purchases and public communication—tools that […]

January 2nd, 2020 | Gold: How High in 2020?

Mish Talk - Gold broke out of a six year consolidation. Things look up in 2020. Gold Monthly Chart 2004-Present Gold Monthly Chart 2010-Present Smart Money Shorts I ignore short-term COT “smart money” warnings although I would prefer there to be fewer bulls. For discussion of “smart money“, please see Investigating Alleged Smart Money Positions in Gold. Pater […]

Mish Talk - In contrast to Hussman, Jim Bianco, at Bianco Research says the Fed’s repo actions are QE. Earlier today I posted, Hussman Sides with Powell: It’s Not QE4. If Hussman convinced you the Fed was not conducting QE, I will give you a chance to change your mind again. “Not QE” Looks a Lot Like Y2K This […]

Mish Talk -   Companies with tangible net value of less that zero have increasingly outperformed the market for decades. Bloomberg comments Capitalists Without Capital Are Ruling Capitalism Some 40% of public stocks quoted in the U.S. have negative tangible book value, meaning that their tangible assets aren’t worth enough to repay all their debt. Two decades ago, this […]

Mish Talk - After years of malinvestment, the bills are now coming due in China. With more than $6 trillion worth of debt, Chinese SOEs and cities find it increasingly difficult to meet payment deadlines. Malinvestments aside, the Bills Come Due for China’s Local Governments. For decades, local governments in China borrowed heavily to build urban infrastructure, helping to […]

Mish Talk - What if anything does does the futures position of commercial hedgers say about the price of gold? I received the following email from Tom McClellan with his thoughts on gold. The emphasis in italics below is mine. It is on points I am going to dispute. Gold Cot Data Calls for More of a Drop […]

Mish Talk - From 1970 to present let’s investigate how gold reacted to various interest rate environments. A reader asked to see a chart of gold vs “real” interest rates. Real means inflation-adjusted. To calculate the real rate I subtracted year-over-year CPI from the Fed Fund Rate. Use of CPI as a measure of inflation is more than […]

Mish Talk - China is fighting “abnormal” cash flows. It’s not surprising in the least. Record Capital Flight Please consider Money has been leaving China at a record rate. Beijing is battling to stem the tide Money was leaving the country at a record clip earlier this year through unauthorized channels, according to analysts. That’s bad news for China, […]

December 24th, 2019 | Brexit, China, Gold, Marijuana

HoweStreet.com Radio - Markets in 2020

Mish Talk - Gold is not as correlated to the US dollar as most think. I commented on this a few days ago in Gold Surprisingly Correlated With the US Dollar. Gold has been positively correlated to the US dollar for well over a year. Most of the time gold is inversely correlated to the US dollar. The problem, […]

Mish Talk - The GDPNow and Nowcast GDP forecasts for the first quarter of 2020 converged quite a bit today. Step Towards Convergence Whereas the GDPNow forecast fell from 2.3% to 2.1%, the Nowcast forecast jumped from 0.7% to 1.3%. The gaps between the two competing forecasts was 1.6 percentage points a week ago. Today the gap is 0.8 percentage points. Industrial […]

Mish Talk - Boeing has over-promised and under-delivered on getting the 737 Max back in service. In Jan, it will suspend production. The Boeing 737 Max was grounded by Trump on March 13 following fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia that claimed a combined 346 lives. Boeing expected flights to resume in a couple months, then by October, […]

Mish Talk - For the first time in a long time, gold and silver miners are outperforming the metal, generally a good signal for both. Starting November, on a daily chart, the XAU components started outperforming gold and silver. Miners vs the Metals Weekly A weekly chart shows these periods of overperformance and underperformance can last a long […]
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