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January 26, 2022 | Financial Sector ETF XLF $37.50 Continues To Present Opportunities
Recent volatility in the US markets ahead of the Fed comments/actions have prompted a relatively big pullback in almost every sector. Many traders are concerned the Fed may take immediate action to raise rates. Yet, a small portion of traders believes the Fed may be trapped in a position to act more conservatively in addressing […]
January 24, 2022 | The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits
Many companies regularly distribute a portion of their profits in the form of a dividend to attract investors and incentivize them to remain long-term shareholders. But most companies, ETFs, and commodities don’t pay a dividend at all. When there’s no dividend, the only opportunity for income or a profit comes from a capital gain (or […]
January 21, 2022 | How To Interpret & Profit From The Risks Of A Depreciation Cycle
The timing of the super-cycle in commodities and the incredible speculative rally in the US & Global markets over the past 4+ years is hard to ignore. Even though these rallies are exciting and profitable when everything seems to be skyrocketing, traders need to continue focusing on the broader market cycles. The next 5+ years […]
January 14, 2022 | US Federal Reserve – Playing With Fire Part II
The US Federal Reserve has recently taken steps to communicate a change in future policy – suggesting raising interest rates and acting more aggressively to combat inflation. Throughout the last few weeks of 2021 and early 2022, these comments and posturing by the US Fed have created some very big downside price moves in the […]
January 13, 2022 | Death, Taxes, and Time Decay
Few things are certain in life. But as the old saying goes, there is nothing quite so certain as “death and taxes”. As an Options Trader, I would enthusiastically add option time decay to that list. Options offer traders and investors more leverage and risk mitigation than just purchasing shares outright. For example, if I […]
January 12, 2022 | US Fed Playing With Fire – Bubbles May Burst While Bond Yields & Metals Rally
The US Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy from a historically low-interest rate has slowed the US stock markets. As a result, traders quickly attempt to adjust their capital allocation levels as risk assets, technology, and US major indexes roll lower because of expected Fed Rate Hikes and other Hawkish activities. We will explore how the […]
January 8, 2022 | Will 2022~23 Require A Different Strategy For Traders/Investors? Part III
Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? – Part III This last part of our multi-part article compares trading styles amidst the increasing price volatility and extended hyperbolic trending. We’ll explore what we’ve witnessed in the US markets over the past 5+ years and highlight what to expect throughout 2022. Additionally, we’ll highlight and feature the […]
January 7, 2022 | Financial Sector Starts To Rally Towards The $43.60 Upside Target
Near November 24, 2021, I published a research article suggesting the Financial Sector, XLF in particular, may bottom and start to move higher, targeting the $43.60 level. After watching XLF rotate lower and form multiple bottoms near $37.50, it appears to finally be starting a new breakout rally phase ahead of Q4:2021 earnings. Will it […]
January 5, 2022 | Will 2022~23 Require A Different Strategy For Traders/Investors?
Is The Lazy-Bull Strategy Worth Considering? – Part I Many traders struggled in 2021 with the extended price volatility and sideways price trends. Recently, news that Bridgewater’s 2021 results were saved by December’s +7.8% gain (Source: Yahoo! Finance) leads me to believe a number of independent funds and investors are going to have a tough […]
December 31, 2021 | Sector Themes In Play In The Markets For 2022
As 2021 closes, it’s time to consider how sector themes in the markets are likely to perform in 2022. Years like 2021 saw a solid broad-based performance in many stock market sectors. Relatively simple approaches such as Indexing and Sector Rotation did well. But with macro changes in play and many uncertainties for 2022, we […]
December 30, 2021 | Early 2022 Should Continue A Melt-Up Trend In January/February
A very late Santa Rally appears to have been set up in the US markets as we close in on the end of 2021. The US markets have already started a melt-up trend – which is what I expected to happen prior to the bout of volatility over the past 30+ days. A Very Late Santa […]
December 28, 2021 | Predictive Modeling Suggests 7~10% Rally In SPY/QQQ Before April 2022
Has the Santa Rally arrived late this year? Are traders trying to position for a Q4:2021 earnings blowout before the end of 2021? Let’s take a look at what predictive modeling can help us understand. The recent rotation in the SPY/QQQ has shaken some traders’ confidence in the ability of any potential rally – blowing […]
December 22, 2021 | Fear May Drive Silver More Than 60% Higher In 2022
As the US and global markets rattle around over the past 60+ days, many traders have failed to identify an incredible opportunity setting up in both Gold and Silver. Historically, Silver is extremely undervalued compared to Gold right now. In fact, Gold has continued to stay above $1675 over the past 12+ months while Silver […]
December 17, 2021 | US Federal Reserve Actions 1999 to Present – What’s Next? Part III
In Part I and Part II of this research article, I shared my research into the state of past and current US and global economy, Rest Of World Debt, DGP Implicit Price Deflator, Fed Funds Rates, and other technical data charts. The purpose of this article is to share with you two key components of […]
December 16, 2021 | Are You an Options Buyer or an Options Seller?
Options are an increasingly popular financial product that gives traders numerous ways to manage risk while significantly leveraging capital. They are a powerful trading “tool” that can be bought, sold, and combined in a seemingly limitless number of ways to achieve a specific objective. One of the bigger questions for new — and even experienced […]
December 15, 2021 | US Fed Actions 1999 to Present – What’s Next? Part II
Let’s continue to explore the past 20 years of US Fed actions. I believe the US Fed has created a global expansion of both economies and debts/liabilities that may become somewhat painful for foreign nations – and possibly the US. Reading The Data & What To Expect in 2022 And Beyond In the first part […]
December 14, 2021 | US Fed Actions 1999 to Present – What’s Next?
I find it interesting that so much speculation related to the US Federal Reserve drives investor concern and trends. In my opinion, the US Federal Reserve has been much more accommodating for the global economy after the 2008-09 US Housing Market crash. The new US Bank Stress Tests and Capital Requirements have allowed the US […]
December 10, 2021 | Financial Sector May Rally 11% – 15% Higher Before End Of January 2022
The financial sector is poised for a very strong rally into the end of 2021, and early 2022 as revenues and earnings for Q4:2021 should continue to drive an upward price trend. The US Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates low. At the same time, the US consumer continues to drive home purchases and holiday […]
December 7, 2021 | Deleveraging COVID Bubble – Possible Volatility Risks In Foreign Markets
I get asked all the time what my opinions are regarding the markets. As much as I could go into really deep details regarding technical analysis and other factors of my research, the simple answer is that we’ve been living through 2~4+ years of incredible market trends and unprecedented global central bank efforts to support […]
December 3, 2021 | Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Rally-INDU & TRAN
As we’ve been watching the markets recoil away from risks related to the new Omicron COVID variant and other factors, one simple thought keeps running through my head. What if the markets suddenly shift away from this panic selling and resume a rally/recovery trend – possibly pushing to new all-time highs before the end of the year? […]
December 2, 2021 | Global Markets-It’s Do-Or-Die Time
Almost all of the US and global markets volatility has taken place over the last 6+ trading days. Even though economic data continues to show a strengthening US economy and jobs market, the news of the Omicron COVID variant has spooked the global markets. I’m going to illustrate how the markets are nearing critical support […]
December 1, 2021 | A Major Turning Point In Stock Market Is Taking Place
Global financial markets were already hobbled by the original COVID-19 virus – struggling to regain their economic foundation after many months of the unprecedented central bank, government, and humanitarian efforts to move us towards recovery. Now, the Omicron strain of the COVID virus has potentially toppled the apple cart while global inflationary and economic concerns […]
November 26, 2021 | Historical Trends Suggest A Strengthening Bullish Trend In December
I received many messages and emails asking my opinions related to the recent market volatility and sideways trending in the US markets. Many traders see the recent downward price trend as a warning of a potential shift in trends. Yet, I see it as normal November volatility in price and wanted to share some data […]
November 24, 2021 | Financial ETF Sector XLF Pullback Sets Up A New $43.60 Upside Target
The recent downward price rotation in the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) may have frightened some traders. My research, however, suggests this move is setting up a future bullish price target near $43.60 – a more than +11% move. The end of the year Christmas Rally phase of the markets should drive spending and Q4:2021 expectations […]
November 19, 2021 | Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns
Recently, the Cannabis sector has shown signs of increased volume, volatility, and a reasonably strong potential for a price base. Volume started increasing near mid-September as the price of MJ fell below $15. This support level originated from late December 2020 after a significant rally trend from recent lows near $10 – when the Reddit retail trader […]