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November 17, 2021 | Kondratieff Full-Season Rotation – Part II
In part one of this article, I highlighted my opinion that the US and Global markets rolled through a hyper-active Kondratieff full-season rotation throughout the COVID-19 virus crisis. In 2017 and late 2018: Bonds were trading lower Gold and Silver were trading near multi-year lows Real Estate had peaked in the short term as rates […]
November 16, 2021 | What Market Trends Will Drive Through To 2022?
Some interesting facts related to market trends and the global economy have come into play recently. After the COVID-19 virus event began, global central banks entered a phase of extended easing. This move was an attempt to transition through the economic concerns related to the immediate shutdown caused by COVID-19. These actions have translated into […]
November 11, 2021 | Gold Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex
Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently […]
November 5, 2021 | IWM Rally May Find Brief Resistance Near $244~$245 Before Rocketing Higher
Watching the US Stock Market start a big rally phase after the October 12th base/bottom raised a few questions in my head because the Small-Caps/Mid-Caps were not showing a strong upward price trend like the rest of the market. Even though I called this upward price trend many weeks before it happened, I was surprised that […]
October 28, 2021 | What is Contango in the VIX?
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October 26, 2021 | Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets? Part II
In part one of this article, we discussed how the recent decline in Zillow, Redfin, and Opendoor share prices could reflect a concern that the risks involved in holding large home inventories while attempting to “flip houses” could present for these Real Estate firms. The recent 50% price drop in the share price levels should […]
October 23, 2021 | Has Zillow’s Collapse Signaled A Warning For The Capital Markets?
Watching Zillow (ZG) move from over $200 per share to recent levels below $90, reflecting a more than 55% collapse in price, while the housing market continues to rally may be an indication that traders/investors have already discounted the future peak in the US capital markets and Real Estate assets related to the current market […]
October 20, 2021 | S&P500 Rallies Above $4400 – May Attempt To Advance To $4750~$4800
Two main factors are driving the rally in the US stock markets recently; retail traders buying the dip, and Q3:2021 earnings data is starting to shake away the concerns that resulted in the recent market rotation. Combine these activities with the start of the Christmas Rally phase (which usually starts sometime after mid/late-October and carries […]
October 15, 2021 | Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon
As precious metals traders have waited out this extended sideways/downward price contraction in price over the past 14+ months, a very broad Pennant/Flag price formation is nearing an APEX level which suggests Gold may begin a new rally phase over the next 60+ days. Support near $1675 is a critical price level that has been […]
October 12, 2021 | The Greatest/Biggest Asset You Own May Be Under Pressure Soon – Real Estate
Real estate is one of the biggest investments of our lifetime. It’s one of our best assets but there will be times when it does very well, which we’ve recently seen, and there will also be tough times when real estate can be dormant. There will come a time where there will be better places […]
October 8, 2021 | Where The SP500 Is Headed Next Week
Everyone wishes they knew where the stock market was going to go next. What sector is going to rally? When is the subsequent market sell-off? When and where to put your money to work are the questions strive to figure out. Nothing is perfect. You cannot predict the future, but if you follow something close […]
October 7, 2021 | Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates – Part II
As the Real Estate market shifts away from super-low interest rates and skyrocketing home prices throughout the COVID-19 crisis, we are starting to see the Real Estate ETFs weaken in trend and start to move lower. The recent rising Mortgage Rates will likely continue to weaken sales trends and push home prices a bit lower […]
October 6, 2021 | Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Mortgage Rates – Part I
US Mortgage Rates have risen from levels near 2% to 2.25% earlier in 2021 to levels now above 3%. This increase in the cost of borrowing money for home purchases has a downward effect on home prices and sales. The affordability of homes is directly related to the sales price and the cost of the […]
October 1, 2021 | NASDAQ Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness
The unique technical setup in the NASDAQ over the past 30+ days is warning that the markets have lost momentum and may attempt to break below the $14,700, the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern. This unique price setup crept up over the past 20+ days as the US markets started to move away from […]
September 21, 2021 | Did The Global Markets Rollover In April/May 2021? What Next? Part II
In the first part of this research article, I highlighted a number of factors and technical charts that suggest the true peak in the US/Global markets happened in April/May 2021. Although the US markets continued to trend higher after that peak, the global markets, as well as a number of key indicators, suggested the bullish […]
September 17, 2021 | Did The Global Markets Rollover In April/May 2021? What Next? Part I
This research article is designed to answer a few questions related to the current market contraction and the news related to the potential US Fed tightening of monetary policy while it appears China may be experiencing a credit/debt crisis in the early stages. Many traders/investors are contacting us asking our opinions of the current market […]
September 14, 2021 | After Moderate Selling US Stock Markets Rebound Higher – How Long Will This Trend Continue?
The recent bout of selling in the US markets prompted traders/investors to rethink their longer-term strategies. But our interpretation of this rotation was consistent with moderate price rotation that we’ve seen nearly every 20 to 30 days, on average, for almost the past year or longer. The markets need to really break away from this […]
September 9, 2021 | Gold Inverted Head-n-Shoulders Suggests $2000+ Is Next Upside Target
After a moderately strong rebound from the $1675 lows in early August, Gold has clearly started to set up the Right Shoulder of what appears to be an Inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern. The recent weakness in the US Dollar suggests any breakdown in the US Dollar below $91.70 will likely prompt a new bullish price advance […]
September 2, 2021 | S&P 500 Rallies To New All-Time Highs – Are The Market About To Break Higher Ending Q3:2021?
The S&P 500 rallied to new highs early in September after the US Federal Reserve statements indicating continued support of the US economy and easy money policies. It appears the markets have fallen back into bullish trending mode which may continue throughout September and into the end of 2021 through the Christmas Rally phase. Q3:2021 […]
August 30, 2021 | Fed Statements Drive New Rally Momentum In The Stock Markets
Last week, the US Federal Reserve reiterated statements in support of continued easy money policies and support for a recovering US economy. Additionally, Jerome Powell made a statement suggesting tightening too early could be much more damaging than waiting until sufficient headwinds are behind us. I interpret this as stating the current inflationary concerns are […]
August 25, 2021 | IWM Sets Up Dual Pennant/Flag Formation – Suggesting Very Volatile Apex Event
Recently, we’ve seen an extended sideways price trend in the Russell 2000 sector that started in February/March of 2021. The peak price level on the IWM, the Ishares Russell 2000 ETF, reached $234.29 and has consolidated in a sideways price range for more than five months now. In mid-July, IWM broke lower and established a […]
August 24, 2021 | Rally On – Price Range Continues To Narrow As Reflation Trade Flags Out
After a week of moderate volatility, while Consumer Sentiment and other economic data surprised traders/investors, the US markets entered a strong rally phase early in trading on Monday, August 23, 2021. This suggests traders continue to buy the dips in expectation of a never-ending rally trend. Bucking Consumer Sentiment Trends While the US markets continue […]
August 23, 2021 | Surprising Consumer Activity May Suggest A Deeper Shift In The Markets, Part IV
This final portion of our research article into the shifting US/global consumer spending/economic activities will help to set up forward expectations related to how assets and the stock market may react over the next 12+ months. In our opinion, the reflation trade/rally is complete, and consumers have already run the course with regards to stimulus […]
August 18, 2021 | Surprising Consumer Activity May Suggest a Deeper Shift in the Markets, Part III
As I dive deeper into the shifting economic trends, driven by both the post-COVID-19 recovery event and the US and global economic actions and policies, we are going to focus on two key aspects of the recent market recovery in this third installment of our research article. Ideally, we are going to focus on price […]
August 17, 2021 | Surprising Consumer Activity May Suggest A Deeper Shift In The Markets, Part II
Continuing our research into shifting Consumer Sentiment and other economic data recently posted. Part II of our research article will focus on the components of US GDP and how shifting consumer sentiment and activities may result in lower GDP data for a period of time. GDP is one of the biggest measures of total economic […]