- the source for market opinions


Garth Turner

Guest's Website

A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.

August 8th, 2021 | _ _ _ @TB

The Greater Fool - Recently, in these politically-correct times rife with language cops and SJWs, I was castigated for saying TNL@TB. That, of course, means The Nice Lady at The Bank. “Your sexist language is offensive to many of your readers,” said an angry email this weekend. “As a father and husband to amazing women, your misogyny is abhorrent.” Wow. And […]

August 6th, 2021 | Summer Numb

The Greater Fool - The house lust cooled in July. So was that a seasonal thing? Was it the fading of pandemic angst and aggressive nesting? Or has this insane, historic market started to roll over? Knowing the answers would be helpful. If selling, this could be the moment of maximum profit, allowing you to buy back into a […]

August 5th, 2021 | Dr. Garth

The Greater Fool - Enough withAdd New macroeconomics, politics or doing battle with unhinged anti-vaxers. Life’s too short to spend arguing semantics, debating with bricks, or fighting trolls. Let’s get this blog back to its real work of helping people find marital bliss & inner peace through real estate lust. First up is Jason. Retirement looms. But what to […]

August 4th, 2021 | The Choice

The Greater Fool - In October of 2019 we had no idea what was coming. An election had been called. The economy was decent. Markets were robust. Nobody had ever heard of Covid and few knew where Wuhan was. The government that year was taking heat for spending $19 billion more than it took in. And the red-meat-eaters who […]

August 3rd, 2021 | The writ, Part deux

The Greater Fool - Full disclosure before we proceed In the summer of 1988 some guy knocked on our farmhouse door, working an old list of people who were maybe Conservatives. “I’m running to be the PC candidate for MP in this new riding,” he told Dorothy. “Can I count on your support?” Instead, she told me. A new […]

August 2nd, 2021 | The Writ

The Greater Fool - As we inch towards that election call (the writ drops this week, I hear) the guys currently running the country will be pointing to this good economic news. The economy’s growing again. A big jump in June after a painful squeeze in May. It’s all about the reopening trade. The US border cracks next Monday. […]

August 1st, 2021 | Tick, tock

The Greater Fool - If you’ve bought anything lately you know what’s happened to prices. The official inflation rate of 3.1% is, well, quaint. After all, when houses went up 30% and food steadily climbs, it more than offsets declines in GIS plywood and golden retrievers. What has fed the price pop? Cheap interest rates, for sure, plus the […]

July 30th, 2021 | Bubble, Meet Prick

The Greater Fool - The sleepy little university city is a hundred clicks from the Big Smoke. Not exactly an easy commute. But WFH and Covid changed all that. So far in 2021 home sales in Guelph jumped 62% above 2020 levels. Prices increased 32% in a year. Nobody – not a single agent or broker – had ever […]

July 29th, 2021 | The Bottom

The Greater Fool - At 11:37 am Eastern on July 29th, this blog might have hit bottom. At that time K. Lech, from somewhere in Toronto, posted this: In what sort of sick, moribund, morally and spiritually bankrupt society do aging cowards like Mr. Turner sitting on mounds of money sacrifice the developing bodies and minds of their young, […]

July 28th, 2021 | On Cowardice

The Greater Fool - If there’s one thing Mr. Market does not want, it’s another lockdown. That could whack the recovery, halt consumer spending, crash the airlines, crush tourism and further tilt society towards the debt abyss. Ditto for commercial real estate, employers and the housing market. A sudden spike in unemployment at this stage would be tough to […]

July 27th, 2021 | Get over it

The Greater Fool - Recently I collided with a woman who wanted me to build her a high-octane, growth-oriented, all-equity, no-safety-net portfolio. How come, I asked. “Because I’m young,” she said. “It’s what you’re supposed to do.” Well, she didn’t make the cut as a client. And while the common wisdom in the money business is that investors with […]

July 26th, 2021 | Lessons

The Greater Fool - My flinty-eyed, iron-spined portfolio-manager colleague told you on the weekend not to wimp out and try to time a market exit. Doug was right. We see it all. The. Time. When Covid crashed into our world, equities dropped over a third in the space of a few weeks. The fastest bear market ever. Day traders, […]

July 25th, 2021 | Cracking heads

The Greater Fool - A few days ago many, many, many Toronto cops moved in on an encampment of “people experiencing homelessness” to boot them out. Heads were knocked. Horses were involved. Lots of cameras, shouting and a few arrests. The illegal campers had received a month’s notice and the city had indoor rooms awaiting them. For free. Most […]

July 23rd, 2021 | Woke Nation

The Greater Fool - Regular readers – people who have no real lives and are addicted to dog pictures – will recall my angst when SJWs scoffed my big flag three weeks ago. No, it has not turned up. The cops were stymied. That prized possession is gone, gone, sadly. My crime was to celebrate Canada Day. On Canada […]

July 22nd, 2021 | The Carry Trade

The Greater Fool - Today this pathetic blog brings you another episode of its wildly incorrect “First World Financial Problems.” Forget about climate change, massive flooding, fires, BLM, BIPOCs, reconciliation, Gen Z angst, cops vs encampments, ODs, the deficit, LGBTQ+ and that damn virus Delta thingy. Life needs more Greta Van Fleet and, yes, questions like this one from […]

July 21st, 2021 | The Match

The Greater Fool - Suzanne just started a new job. Kudos to her. Change is good. She figures about a decade to go before she winds down and retires. Of course, retirement used to be the goal. Now it’s just scary. Once upon a time people got defined-benefit pensions, knowing how much income there’d be forever. Now seven in […]

July 20th, 2021 | The Reprobate

The Greater Fool - Ced is 59, single, makes sixty grand a year, saves like a hopped-up beaver, lives in a ridiculously-priced city that shall remain nameless (Vancouver), has rented for his entire life, reads this blog but has recently started to feel FOBH. “I save 20% of my gross pay every month.  Don’t owe a penny to anyone. […]

July 19th, 2021 | Worries

The Greater Fool - Yesterday this pathetic, paleo (fully dosed) blog suggested WFH won’t last. Alas, few believe it. Or want to. A year-and-a-half of pandemic has bent a lot of minds. Values have changed. This is not temporary, they cry. It’s the new normal. Many think careers are kaput. It’s a gig world now. There’s no employer or […]

July 18th, 2021 | Re-Entry

The Greater Fool - Downstairs they’re building be a long line of EV charging stalls. Plus hundreds of secure bicycle parking spots. Up above – cascaded over rooftop terraces leading 19 stories into the iclouds – will be 18,000 square feet of outside space. Patios. Trees. Grass. The hulking glass-sided structure thrusts above four heritage properties fronting King Street […]

July 16th, 2021 | The Big Suck

The Greater Fool - At 37, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is one of the youngest MPs. There are reasons to like him. He’s a big animal rights dude, taking concrete steps against cruelty and exploitation. He thinks party politics can be stifling, so free votes and open debate – even questioning the leader – should abound in Parliament. But he’s also […]

July 15th, 2021 | So Over

The Greater Fool - News worth knowing in our Summer of Recovery: The central bank (as forecast) squeezed off some stimulus yesterday. Weekly bond-buying will drop by a third. While nobody at your local double-double Timmie’s will know, or care, it’s a big deal. We’re now well on the road to the Bank of Canada pulling in its horns, […]

July 14th, 2021 | Hard choices

The Greater Fool - Our shiny new GG (qui ne peut pas parler français) gets her wings on July 26th. About a month later Justin Trudeau and wife will stroll across to Mary Simon’s digs and ask her to dissolve Parliament. A little over 36 days following that media event we’ll have an election. The third Monday in September […]

July 13th, 2021 | Enough

The Greater Fool - Big reveal tomorrow morning in Ottawa. Our central bank will review its key rate, make a sexy announcement and shed some light on what to expect in terms of your mortgage when it renews. First, I hear you cry, “Tell us how much money the CB has spent snorfling up Mr. Socks’ debt.” Okay, this […]

July 12th, 2021 | Cookin’ it

The Greater Fool - Susan wants a kitchen. “My cabinets came on the Ark,” she says. “The dishwasher squirts and the countertops are made from some kind of hideous plastic. This reno is not an option.” To pay for the big overhaul she needs about eighty grand. The good news is she can afford it. She and Todd currently […]

July 11th, 2021 | A Moment in Time

The Greater Fool - So now there are bidding wars for rental houses. Reports are showing up documenting ten or a dozen families competing to lease a SFH, offering above-market rates or offering to prepay six months or a year. No wonder. Most people who do not own cannot afford to buy, given the pandemic bulge in prices. Nor […]
Next Page »