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Garth Turner

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A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.

July 30th, 2021 | Bubble, Meet Prick

The Greater Fool - The sleepy little university city is a hundred clicks from the Big Smoke. Not exactly an easy commute. But WFH and Covid changed all that. So far in 2021 home sales in Guelph jumped 62% above 2020 levels. Prices increased 32% in a year. Nobody – not a single agent or broker – had ever […]

July 29th, 2021 | The Bottom

The Greater Fool - At 11:37 am Eastern on July 29th, this blog might have hit bottom. At that time K. Lech, from somewhere in Toronto, posted this: In what sort of sick, moribund, morally and spiritually bankrupt society do aging cowards like Mr. Turner sitting on mounds of money sacrifice the developing bodies and minds of their young, […]

July 28th, 2021 | On Cowardice

The Greater Fool - If there’s one thing Mr. Market does not want, it’s another lockdown. That could whack the recovery, halt consumer spending, crash the airlines, crush tourism and further tilt society towards the debt abyss. Ditto for commercial real estate, employers and the housing market. A sudden spike in unemployment at this stage would be tough to […]

July 27th, 2021 | Get over it

The Greater Fool - Recently I collided with a woman who wanted me to build her a high-octane, growth-oriented, all-equity, no-safety-net portfolio. How come, I asked. “Because I’m young,” she said. “It’s what you’re supposed to do.” Well, she didn’t make the cut as a client. And while the common wisdom in the money business is that investors with […]

July 26th, 2021 | Lessons

The Greater Fool - My flinty-eyed, iron-spined portfolio-manager colleague told you on the weekend not to wimp out and try to time a market exit. Doug was right. We see it all. The. Time. When Covid crashed into our world, equities dropped over a third in the space of a few weeks. The fastest bear market ever. Day traders, […]

July 25th, 2021 | Cracking heads

The Greater Fool - A few days ago many, many, many Toronto cops moved in on an encampment of “people experiencing homelessness” to boot them out. Heads were knocked. Horses were involved. Lots of cameras, shouting and a few arrests. The illegal campers had received a month’s notice and the city had indoor rooms awaiting them. For free. Most […]

July 23rd, 2021 | Woke Nation

The Greater Fool - Regular readers – people who have no real lives and are addicted to dog pictures – will recall my angst when SJWs scoffed my big flag three weeks ago. No, it has not turned up. The cops were stymied. That prized possession is gone, gone, sadly. My crime was to celebrate Canada Day. On Canada […]

July 22nd, 2021 | The Carry Trade

The Greater Fool - Today this pathetic blog brings you another episode of its wildly incorrect “First World Financial Problems.” Forget about climate change, massive flooding, fires, BLM, BIPOCs, reconciliation, Gen Z angst, cops vs encampments, ODs, the deficit, LGBTQ+ and that damn virus Delta thingy. Life needs more Greta Van Fleet and, yes, questions like this one from […]

July 21st, 2021 | The Match

The Greater Fool - Suzanne just started a new job. Kudos to her. Change is good. She figures about a decade to go before she winds down and retires. Of course, retirement used to be the goal. Now it’s just scary. Once upon a time people got defined-benefit pensions, knowing how much income there’d be forever. Now seven in […]

July 20th, 2021 | The Reprobate

The Greater Fool - Ced is 59, single, makes sixty grand a year, saves like a hopped-up beaver, lives in a ridiculously-priced city that shall remain nameless (Vancouver), has rented for his entire life, reads this blog but has recently started to feel FOBH. “I save 20% of my gross pay every month.  Don’t owe a penny to anyone. […]

July 19th, 2021 | Worries

The Greater Fool - Yesterday this pathetic, paleo (fully dosed) blog suggested WFH won’t last. Alas, few believe it. Or want to. A year-and-a-half of pandemic has bent a lot of minds. Values have changed. This is not temporary, they cry. It’s the new normal. Many think careers are kaput. It’s a gig world now. There’s no employer or […]

July 18th, 2021 | Re-Entry

The Greater Fool - Downstairs they’re building be a long line of EV charging stalls. Plus hundreds of secure bicycle parking spots. Up above – cascaded over rooftop terraces leading 19 stories into the iclouds – will be 18,000 square feet of outside space. Patios. Trees. Grass. The hulking glass-sided structure thrusts above four heritage properties fronting King Street […]

July 16th, 2021 | The Big Suck

The Greater Fool - At 37, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith is one of the youngest MPs. There are reasons to like him. He’s a big animal rights dude, taking concrete steps against cruelty and exploitation. He thinks party politics can be stifling, so free votes and open debate – even questioning the leader – should abound in Parliament. But he’s also […]

July 15th, 2021 | So Over

The Greater Fool - News worth knowing in our Summer of Recovery: The central bank (as forecast) squeezed off some stimulus yesterday. Weekly bond-buying will drop by a third. While nobody at your local double-double Timmie’s will know, or care, it’s a big deal. We’re now well on the road to the Bank of Canada pulling in its horns, […]

July 14th, 2021 | Hard choices

The Greater Fool - Our shiny new GG (qui ne peut pas parler français) gets her wings on July 26th. About a month later Justin Trudeau and wife will stroll across to Mary Simon’s digs and ask her to dissolve Parliament. A little over 36 days following that media event we’ll have an election. The third Monday in September […]

July 13th, 2021 | Enough

The Greater Fool - Big reveal tomorrow morning in Ottawa. Our central bank will review its key rate, make a sexy announcement and shed some light on what to expect in terms of your mortgage when it renews. First, I hear you cry, “Tell us how much money the CB has spent snorfling up Mr. Socks’ debt.” Okay, this […]

July 12th, 2021 | Cookin’ it

The Greater Fool - Susan wants a kitchen. “My cabinets came on the Ark,” she says. “The dishwasher squirts and the countertops are made from some kind of hideous plastic. This reno is not an option.” To pay for the big overhaul she needs about eighty grand. The good news is she can afford it. She and Todd currently […]

July 11th, 2021 | A Moment in Time

The Greater Fool - So now there are bidding wars for rental houses. Reports are showing up documenting ten or a dozen families competing to lease a SFH, offering above-market rates or offering to prepay six months or a year. No wonder. Most people who do not own cannot afford to buy, given the pandemic bulge in prices. Nor […]

July 9th, 2021 | The Gush

The Greater Fool - Despite the moaning and wailing of those on this pathetic blog who never want to work again, a lot of people do. Friday’s jobs stats were a total blow-out. This confirms two conclusions: (a) election, and (b) central bank retreat. Did you see the numbers? Wow. Over 230,000 new hires last month – almost fully […]

July 8th, 2021 | Work for What?

The Greater Fool - Tony is a self-taught but respected carpenter. “Cabinetry,” he says. “I love building that stuff.” For the last five years he’s been imparting skills and smarts to his twentysomething live-at-home spawn, Ben. I know these guys, as they’ve worked on a couple of my endless reno projects. When CERB came last year it meant $4,000 […]

July 7th, 2021 | Muddled

The Greater Fool - In a moment, more taxes. First, common sense. Stocks markets flared higher again Wednesday as bond yields sank. The US 10-year Treasury yield has plopped to just 1.3% after it leapt to 1.75% in March. Bond yields go down and bond prices go up when investors think things might get squirrelly and fixed income is […]

July 6th, 2021 | Torrid No More

The Greater Fool - Weeks ago a certain pathetic yet fully-inoculated blog told you the real estate mayhem would subside. FOMO would ease. People would get diverted back to other things, like travel, shopping, going to work and finding their pants. Lo, it happened. It now looks a lot as if March of 2021 – exactly twelve months after […]

July 5th, 2021 | The Big Lie

The Greater Fool - Shortly after the herd is dosed, it will get to vote. A Thanksgiving election? If so, how appropriate. Justin, Our Pandemic Protector, will wish you to shower him with thankful ballots for having overseen the virus attack, which only crashed the economy for 15 months and killed 26,362 people. But it could have been worse. […]

July 2nd, 2021 | Burning

The Greater Fool - Martin and his squeeze are 38. Rent in Vancouver. No kids. No dog. But big ambitions. We have a combined income of $165,000 and my wife works for a provincial agency. She will have a modest DB pension.  Currently we have $1,250,000 in savings, no mortgage/debt, and we rent.  If you don’t believe me I […]

July 1st, 2021 | The End

The Greater Fool - The RCMP constable, Justin, was kind. “I know it wasn’t just a flag,” he said, staring at the empty, void wall of the wee bank. “Not to you.” Overnight, vandals and thieves cut the cords supporting my Peace Tower prize, ripped it down and stole it. Maybe the flag’s in the harbour now. Or burned. […]
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