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Garth Turner

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A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.

January 21st, 2018 | Morons

The Greater Fool - Allan is amused at this pathetic blog. He read the post last week about that trash listing in hipster Toronto asking $750,000, and said, “it probably wouldn’t even warrant a Tweet here in Sydney, since sometime in 2016…” The Australian is correct. We’re nuts, real estate-obsessed and terminally house horny. Aussies, however, are certifiably insane. […]

January 19th, 2018 | The Leap

The Greater Fool - People with wasted lives who follow social media and (ugh) blogs were scandalized a few days ago when a Toronto rowhouse which deserves to be burned hit the market for $750,000. Yes, it’s in an area favoured by trendoids and hipsters, guys with beards and buns and women wearing tats but, sheesh, three-quarters of a […]

January 18th, 2018 | What it means

The Greater Fool - Only in Canada would a quarter-point rate increase grip the nation. It’s weird. The folks in Venezuela (inflation 2,350% this year) would laugh at us. Such first-world problems we have. However, there’s a good reason this week’s news matters. Consider those lines of credit secured by real estate that people have binged on. We owe […]

January 17th, 2018 | Mr. Obvious

The Greater Fool - The bank rate may have jumped just a little Wednesday but we passed a giant milestone. It says ‘5’. The five-year posted mortgage rate at all of the banks has now jumped the 5% mark. With this week’s CB pop the Bank of Canada’s benchmark mortgage rate will also pass the five level. Add the […]

January 16th, 2018 | The Trigger

The Greater Fool - One more sleep until the nobs at the central bank take back another bit of stimulus. With the BoC rate increasing a quarter point this week, that’s three increases in a handful of months, with more on the way. The implications could be epic, especially if you borrowed against your house to buy Bitcoins. But […]

January 15th, 2018 | Carefully

The Greater Fool - Jamie has a problem. Actually it’s his MIL’s issue. But being a husband, son-in-law plus a dude,  it’s on him to solve. “She is 63,” he says, “with no savings at all and has struggled through her life. Likely won’t qualify for much CPP. She was nannying her son’s children for a number of years […]

January 14th, 2018 | Emotion

The Greater Fool - Fear and greed move markets. Emotions stronger than sex. Or blog addiction. Greed made people buy Bitcoin when it approached twenty thousand. That was stupid. Fear made people sell stocks in 2009. Utterly dumb. Greed spurred big sales of ‘investment’ condos that lose money. Fear of missing out propelled houses last spring. Regret now. Lately […]

January 12th, 2018 | They’re Back

The Greater Fool - Ten years ago when Lehman Brothers collapsed and the lights started to go out, money fled into safe stuff. Bonds. US debt. Yields shot higher, taking the two-year Treasury over 2%. By 2011, with the Fed rate at zero, those bonds had dropped to 0.14%, or next to nothing. Even two years ago they sat […]

January 11th, 2018 | The Binge

The Greater Fool - More updates. Yikes. CryptoSuckers This week the failed, crashed, moribund and prehistoric picture company, Kodak, got into the cryptocurrency business. The announcement of its ‘Kodakcoin’ was enough to wet moister shorts and double the value of K’s flaccid stock. Yes, more evidence there’s a new fool born every minute as this analog company joined others […]

January 10th, 2018 | The Outrage

The Greater Fool - Updates. Some scary. The Poloz Plop Will the boss at the Bank of Canada chicken out of a rate increase next Wednesday, even after he read yesterday’s blog? Maybe. As Canada launches a big trade complaint against the States, the word out of Washington is that the Trumpster is about to spike NAFTA – something […]

January 9th, 2018 | Get Ready

The Greater Fool - Let’s get ready for next Wednesday. For the third time in just half a year the central bank will raise interest rates. This is entirely consistent with what the American central bank (the Fed) has done, where the cost of money has popped four times in a year. Remember how this macho but gender-sensitive blog […]

January 8th, 2018 | Seeking Balance

The Greater Fool - On the weekend President Trump took personal credit (on Twitter) for creating more than two million jobs and propelling the Dow about the 25,000 mark. It was a remarkable brag. But it was also a part of the massive defense against ‘Fire and Fury’, the book trashing the prez, his family and every bubba with […]

January 7th, 2018 | The Exodus

The Greater Fool - Seven years ago Joan and her fresh husband decided not to buy a condo in Vancouver. “We did the math and got the willies thinking about dumping all our savings and salaries into a mortgage, and backed out of the offer.” Since then the same condo’s risen in market value by $190,000, she says. But […]

January 5th, 2018 | Up She Goes

The Greater Fool - On Thursday night, swaps trading (no, not what you think) put the odds of a rate hike in a few days at 40%. By Friday morning that had almost doubled. By noon most of the bank economists had piled on, boldly forecasting the central bank will pull the trigger again a week from Wednesday. The […]

January 4th, 2018 | The Storm

The Greater Fool - Early last year the meme spread that anyone who didn’t buy a house in the GTA, pronto, never would. By March the FOMO was flowing and prices increased 30% year/year. This blog told buyers they were greater fools. And now we know. The average detached lost $338,000 in value between March and Christmas, a 21% […]

January 3rd, 2018 | Working People

The Greater Fool - It’s been three whole days since the minimum wage soared in Ontario by 21%, to $14. Twelve months away, in the unlikely event Libs still rule the joint, it goes up another 7%. The lefties running Alberta have also pledged to raise the bar there to $15. The logic is that all ‘working people’ need […]

January 2nd, 2018 | Over

The Greater Fool - The dollar hit a glorious, brief 80 cents as the first trading day of the shiny new year dawned. The immediate reason: oil. It finally reached 60 bucks, and the black stuff is our biggest export. Oil’s going up because Iran’s in turmoil, and the OPECers are curbing production (to force oil up, duh). Anyway, […]

January 1st, 2018 | The Predicament

The Greater Fool - We are needed. Mark and his squeeze must decide by Wednesday. The 32-year-olds are confused condo captives whose LL is messing with their heads. There’s now half a mill in debt and equity hanging in the balance, sauced with FOMO and hormones. We cannot fail him. First, the back story. Two days before the end […]

December 31st, 2017 | Year of the Pooch

The Greater Fool - 1. The cost of money goes up in 2018. A lot. The Bank of Canada will increase its benchmark rate three times, likely on March 7th, May 30th and September 5th. A fourth increase is possible, according to people who should know, like RBC. Lock it up. 2. The Fed goes three times, too. At […]

December 29th, 2017 | The Agenda

The Greater Fool -   Recent moaning, carping and misplaced displays of wealth envy have proven few people who come to this site have empathy for small businesses. Since the self-employed create over half the jobs, that’s weird. But it squares with the lefty-righty theme here of the last few days. Collectivists see government as good, taxes justified and […]

December 28th, 2017 | Extremes

The Greater Fool - In a region of six million people, where everyone lusts for a new, detached home, a mere handful sold last month. Three hundred and twelve, a 58% decline year/year. Even more shocking is that new house construction has collapsed by 82% from 2016 levels, and runs at 75% below the 10-year average. It’s a hard-hat […]

December 27th, 2017 | It’s Time

The Greater Fool - Those on the left see government as the solution. On the right, it’s viewed as the problem. Most moisters are lefties. Most wrinklies aren’t. People without wealth want big taxes (on others) and more services. The affluent want to keep more of what they made, and think penalizing success is moronic. So in a world […]

December 26th, 2017 | The Resistance

The Greater Fool - So far the T2 gang has created a new tax bracket for big-money earners, gutted the TFSA contribution limit by half, ended income-splitting for entrepreneurs and will (in the coming budget) whack doctors and the self-employed who sit on retained earnings. Notice a pattern? Accountants and others who have no life and worry about this […]

December 24th, 2017 | Hark

The Greater Fool - To the blog dogs, spade, neutered or whole. To the Mills and mouldy basement dwellers. To the whiners, critics and shop stewards in the steerage section. To the Lay-Z-Boy macroeconomists who know everything and the ingenues who stumble in to learn. To the bigots, the prejudiced and the lame who come to fight me. To […]

December 22nd, 2017 | Pop

The Greater Fool - On December 17th (that was Sunday) one Bitcoin was worth a hair less than $20,000 US. Five days later (Friday), it was $13,000 – a swing of 35%. In the meantime the founder of Litecoin announced he was cashing in all his chips. Two major Wall Street trading platforms got into the cryptocurrency futures business. […]
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