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Garth Turner

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A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.

April 2nd, 2020 | Grasshoppers

The Greater Fool - Tens of thousands of Canadians are out of the country after vacationing. Most are stranded now. No flights. Closed borders. And a mess of them are running out of money. Maxed credit cards. No savings. No reserves. About to be tossed from hotel rooms they cannot finance. Ottawa is bailing them out. The holiday folks […]

April 1st, 2020 | Rent day

The Greater Fool - “My local mechanic told me he might not make it, yet four weeks ago he couldn’t keep up with the work,” says Jeff. “For over 5 years that I’ve known him, he’s always been busy.  But now, a bump in the road that might set him back for 2 months is going to bankrupt him?  Makes […]

March 31st, 2020 | Wild

The Greater Fool - Eeeeeeeeow! What a wild ride. The stock market careened lower from record highs in just a few weeks by a shocking 38%. But lately it’s zipped back up an impressive 22%. Mr. Market apparently doesn’t think the world is ending. So I guess he doesn’t read the comments on this pathetic blog. (When I walked […]

March 30th, 2020 | Virus Porn

The Greater Fool - “People are not very good at statistical analysis and probabilistic reasoning,” says blog dog Matthew. “I feel like this pandemic has now taken on a whole psychological life of its own, most citizens comply with the official story and are scared by the media, but in truth the reaction is way out of proportion to […]

March 29th, 2020 | The disease

The Greater Fool - Sunday, March 29th, 2020. Today 5,600 people have the virus in our nation. Over 4,900 (or 98%) of the cases are mild. Across Canada 120 victims are hospitalized, serious. Sixty have died. Bless them and their families. The infection rate nationally, thus far, is 0.015%. Three weeks ago the federal health minister said it could be between […]

March 27th, 2020 | Amok

The Greater Fool - Well, things changed in a week. The little grocery store now has yellow caution tape creating an entry tunnel. There’s a sign saying capacity is 25 souls. The pavement is taped and marked ‘social distancing.’ Inside sits a security guard. “Travelled?” he asks. “Are you sick? Is anyone at home sick?” He holds a clipboard. […]

March 26th, 2020 | The Emergency

The Greater Fool - You may not like this post. You might think it comes from a privileged white guy with chiseled abs, nice hair and an epic dog (well, okay, that part is true.) You may view it as elitist. Or Boomerspeak. Too much rational, too little emotional. All true, too. But, tough. Gotta be said. This week […]

March 25th, 2020 | Houseageddon?

The Greater Fool - Amidst the mayhem, quarantines, self-flagellation and bored, isolated workers chugging hand sanitizer, some people are still buying houses. But not many. In fact, the real estate market is going down for the count as the economy commits group suicide. Here’s the latest: Real estate boards all over everywhere have basically banned open houses. Good thing, […]

March 24th, 2020 | Social Distance

The Greater Fool - Almost a year and a half ago the guy running our central bank said this: “The buildup of household debt and imbalances in the housing market has made our financial system more vulnerable to economic shocks.” Few cared. Or listened. Or changed anything. Until the shock came. On Tuesday a big survey emerged showing what […]

March 23rd, 2020 | Are We Toast?

The Greater Fool - The Catch-22 is simple. To stop the virus, stay home. To kill the economy, bankrupt employers, lose your job, run out of money and go nuts with stress, stay home. ‘Enough is enough’, T2 said Monday. The next step is a form of martial law. Got that on Sunday in NS when the province hardened […]

March 22nd, 2020 | The War

The Greater Fool - In wars, truth is the first casualty. This is war. No wonder people are fussed. The news is an endless torrent of medical negativity, while common sense tells us the greatest damage to the largest number will be economic. Not sickness. Not death. But job loss on a Biblical scale. In the overall population, the […]

March 20th, 2020 | Shmoozing It

The Greater Fool - So what happens if you get punted at work thanks to Mr. Virus and you fear your mortgage? If you have scant savings and can’t pay the monthlies? Scary days for many. Layoffs are piling up. Over 500,000 of our neighbours applied for EI this week, up from 27,000 last week. Bank call centres are […]

March 19th, 2020 | Ch-ch-ch-changes

The Greater Fool - The CIBC branch down the street was closed this morning. Just like that. How long? “Until further Notice” the sign said. A block away the teller at the Royal was definitely not herself. I chatted for 90 seconds, doing reconnaissance, and she used hand sanitizer three times during the convo. I felt swarthy and heathen […]

March 18th, 2020 | Shock & Awe

The Greater Fool - The US border closes. Oil is $24 a barrel. The dollar at 68 cents. An airline grounds. Stocks have lay another egg. Recession’s coming. Shock. But banks announced a six-month mortgage break. The stress test fell. Variable rates dropped. The prime sunk to 2.95%. HELOCs and lines of credits got cheaper. Another interest cut is […]

March 17th, 2020 | Covid Queries

The Greater Fool - When will markets bottom? Where does hope lie? Each Tuesday evening my colleagues (and fellow bloggers) Doug Rowat and Ryan Lewenza join me on a conference call with the folks whose investments and finances we manage. Tonight we sought to answer the questions above. Here is a link to our conversation. Turner Investments Client Call, […]

March 16th, 2020 | The Long & The Short

The Greater Fool - A BC couple is caught on video buying every single cut of meat in the supermarket, pushing other shoppers out of the way to scoop them. They pay and leave. A US Amazonian donates his 17,700 bottles of hand sanitizer after he’s accused of price gouging. And Canada, long a light in the world, shuts […]

March 15th, 2020 | Just Weird

The Greater Fool - Big news Sunday as the US Fed slashed its rate again. By a full 1%.  To zero. Plus it’s throwing $700 billion into the liquidity pot through bond purchases. Breathtaking. On Monday our Big Banks will lower their prime rates. Or not. Could take days. Despite the central bank’s panicked move on Friday there’s nothing […]

March 13th, 2020 | Jungle Juices

The Greater Fool - The storm rages, but the week ends with hope. If you came here today looking for investment advice, fugeddaboutit. No change. Things are moving too fast. Most people should do zip. The bold might trim bonds and nibble equities. The cowboys yesterday were scooping up banks, oils and airlines with both hands. The news is […]

March 12th, 2020 | Corona Time

The Greater Fool - We were in the eye of Dorian. The winds of 130 km/hr were ripping shingles from the roof. The basement sump pump was heroically losing it. Rivulents down the road had turned into a river. The hurricane went on for hours, each worse than the last. “Hey, pal,” I said cheerfully. “Wanna go for a […]

March 11th, 2020 | Fake con

The Greater Fool - PUBLIC NOTICE: The following blog post has nothing to do with Covid-19. It is virus-free, devoid of any toilet tissue, and no respirologists were injured during its production. You are on your own. Imagine it’s October. Biden vs Trump. And in Canada the newly-minted Con leader, Peter MacKay, is angling for a no-confidence vote in Parliament […]

March 10th, 2020 | The Right Thing

The Greater Fool - First, a reminder. This is a financial blog. Well, okay, it’s also a canine blog with special emphasis on marital relationships, hormonal urges and why real men change their oil. But finances, the economy, real estate, tax avoidance and portfolios – that’s the main menu. So stick with it. Yesterday my sterilized, nitrite-coated delete finger […]

March 9th, 2020 | The storm

The Greater Fool - When the storm hit, she couldn’t take it. ‘Get me out,’ she said. ‘Sell it all, before it goes to zero.’ Her advisor did. He turned paper losses into real ones. She took the remaining cash and put it into a high-yield bank account paying nothing. Eventually, with no more investment income and only her […]

March 8th, 2020 | MSB

The Greater Fool - The burning question is (of course) will people who hoard toilet paper buy houses? First, why in Dog’s name are folks storming supermarkets and Costcos, fighting over Cottonelle? How is that supposed to prepare you for a pandemic of snotty neighbours and wheezy co-workers? If you end up being quarantined what, exactly, will you do […]

March 6th, 2020 | Shelter in Place

The Greater Fool - Good jobs numbers last month couldn’t keep stocks aloft on Friday. Mr. Market is still trying to figure out how much damage that gnarly little germ will do to the economy. As equities swoon, money gushes into bonds. Safe stuff. For example, a boring bond ETF like XBB has gained about 6% this year while […]

March 5th, 2020 | Wiped

The Greater Fool - So, here’s the good news. The prime rate at the Big Banks just eroded nicely, down a half point to 3.45%. That means consumer and car loans cost less. The rate on your line of credit just dropped. Ditto for the HELOC. Five-year mortgages are moving close to 2.5%. One lender now has a 1.99% […]
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