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Garth Turner

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A best-selling Canadian author of 14 books on economic trends, real estate, the financial crisis, personal finance strategies, taxation and politics. Nationally-known speaker and lecturer on macroeconomics, the housing market and investment techniques. He is a licensed Investment Advisor with a fee-based, no-commission Toronto-based practice serving clients across Canada.

October 22nd, 2018 | Stung

The Greater Fool - Lately some readers have accused me (among other things) of a political bias. That’s interesting. I was an economic nationalist/commie in my youth. Then a Tory. Elected as a PC in 1988. Lost a party leadership bid to Kim Campbell in the summer of ‘93 when Mulroney left. Ran again as a Con in 2005. […]

October 21st, 2018 | The Manipulators

The Greater Fool - On Wednesday the central bank will raise its key rate. The third time in ten months. Three more to come by late Spring or early summer. Tomorrow (Monday) mortgage brokers expect to see one or more major banks jump the gun and add a quarter point or so to their five-year home loan rates. Mr. […]

October 19th, 2018 | The Legacy

The Greater Fool - It’s been four and a half years now since F passed. The elfin deity, as he was fondly called in this space, perpetrated some very good and very bad stuff as Harper’s finance guy. Among the awful things (his boss made him do both) was a treasonous attack on income trusts, and bringing in 0/40 […]

October 18th, 2018 | Careful

The Greater Fool - “So,” she said, after wading through 200 comments, “why do you put up with this crap?” I examined the toes of my cowboy boots, stared out the window, smiled weakly and tried to change the topic to the dog. Didn’t work. “I read the piece on weed,” Dorothy continued. “Okay, you made maybe one dumb […]

October 17th, 2018 | Weed deeds

The Greater Fool - As you know (how could you not?) this week our Dominion joins mighty Uruguay, a Third World, barely industrialized country (pop 3 million, average annual family income $10,000 US), in legalizing weed. Since only Stoners and knuckle-dragging MAGA believers read this blog, we will refrain from passing any judgment whatsoever on the idiotic, populist idea […]

October 16th, 2018 | The Wrong Guys

The Greater Fool - So how much stress is the stress test stressing stressed-out mortgage dudes? Oodles. Enough to have a small army of them swarming over Parliament Hill today (Tuesday), bombarding 50 MPs and policy poohbahs trying to get B-20 gutted. The damage they see being done to their business is palpable. Mortgage originations have plunged, credit has […]

October 15th, 2018 | Gravity

The Greater Fool - Well, remind me to never again write about climate change. Or Trump. Cannabis. The stock market. The UN. Bonds. The Fed. Gold or guns. Dogs seem okay, though. Plus hormones and real estate (sometimes). If I stray into other subjects and I’m sure to be ripped a new one by all the macroeconomists, political scientists […]

October 14th, 2018 | The Future

The Greater Fool - James, brilliantly, sold his house last year and invested the money – about a million. Since then the value of the old digs has gone down and his portfolio’s gone up. “I’m okay,” he says. “Even learned to live with that up-down stock market volatility thing. Selling was the right move.” In fact he and […]

October 12th, 2018 | Stressed

The Greater Fool - Most major banks hiked mortgage costs this week. Not a huge surprise. It’s interesting, though, that the jumps were in their ‘best, discounted’ rates, not the posted ones. For example, at RBC the five-year fixed popped up 15 beeps to 3.89%. At BMO the best fiver also rose, but sits at 3.59%. Of course, this […]

October 11th, 2018 | The Blind

The Greater Fool - Brenda and Khira, her partner, tried to buy four little houses last year. Failed every time. “Yeah, okay, I know we were kind of emotional,” says B, “but after losing out on the first one – it was perfect – we started to panic and just kept offering more, even though it was stupid, because […]

October 10th, 2018 | Plop

The Greater Fool - Markets are funking out this week. Why? Topping the list is interest rates. As explained here earlier, the benchmark US Treasury swelled to more than 3.25%, the highest in seven years. When investors can scoop that return with no risk, money flows from stocks to bonds. Equities drop – especially the over-valued ones (think Tesla). […]

October 9th, 2018 | To the Rescue

The Greater Fool - Well, time to don your Melania® pith helmets! The debt market’s in convulsion as yields shoot skywards. Big US government bonds are at the highest level in seven years, while our five-year Canada bonds (which dictate mortgages rates) are bumping up against a key level last seen in 2011. Hmm. Not good for borrowers, with […]

October 8th, 2018 | The rules

The Greater Fool -   There are many things to be thankful for. Missing yesterday’s comment section on this pathetic blog, if you were so lucky, is one of them. Unlike the thousands of other people who read those words, I had to wade through all the trash that didn’t make it public. It’s amazing the vitriol that humans […]

October 7th, 2018 | Delusional

The Greater Fool - Gerald is a psychiatrist, semi-retired. “So,” I said last week, mocking him, “how does it make you feel, Gerry? Angry, hurt, bitter, resentful? Let it all out. You can share with me, in this safe space.” “I’m pissed,” he said. “Now knock it off.” We were talking about Comrade Premier Horgan’s plans to steal $3,600 […]

October 5th, 2018 | The Thankful One

The Greater Fool - Stocks plopped a bit Friday after the latest jobs numbers. No wonder. This is big stuff. In Canada a wave of part-timers surged the employment stats skyward. In the States, it was all about wages. They’re up almost 3%, racing past inflation, making people feel silly and richer. The jobless rate in America is 3.7% […]

October 4th, 2018 | Stimulus

The Greater Fool - Okay, the class will come to order. Put down your vapes and pay attention. Let’s review the difference between fiscal and monetary policy. The F-thing is what governments do. Like when Comrade Premier Horgan in BC decides to levy a special tax on people with two houses, just because they have two houses. That’s fiscal […]

October 3rd, 2018 | The Reset

The Greater Fool - Poor moisters. If they didn’t have five or six decades of life ahead of them, you could almost feel bad. But here’s a new survey from the orange fruit people saying 70% of Mills “are worried about their financial future” compared to ‘just’ 48.5% of everybody else. Worse, only a third of the kids say […]

October 2nd, 2018 | Punched in the Gut

The Greater Fool - First, a moment to reflect on poor Harrison Houde. This wounded dude scraped together every cent in the world to buy a Vancouver condo, which he then leased to some substance-addled pimp who turned his space into a wild brothel littered with sex and drug droppings. At least that’s what H’s mom said when she […]

October 1st, 2018 | Tough

The Greater Fool - Thirty years ago I packed up my laptop computer (it weighed about 20 pounds) my Canada-US Free Trade Agreement draft text (300 pages) and Dorothy, and headed to a swishy lakeside resort. “This is work,” I said to her, gravely. “It will not be pleasant to be with me. So we might as well be […]

September 30th, 2018 | Envy

The Greater Fool - Sunday midnight’s the drop-dead date for USMC – the successor to NAFTA. As this is written, our earnest little beavers are squabbling with the weasels, trying to do the deal which will (a) save T2’s political butt, (b) not screw up Monday’s election in Quebec and (c) prevent a Biblical Trumpian tariff on maple-made cars […]

September 28th, 2018 | ‘Until it Bursts’

The Greater Fool - The good news? The economy’s steamy. Our GDP just blew past estimates. Factories humming. Eighteen months of consecutive gains. Despite grief with oil. The bad? Growth means inflation. And higher rates. Given what the Fed did this week, rest assured our guys will repeat. (Markets figure an October hike is 80% done.) Regardless of what the orange guy does […]

September 27th, 2018 | The Mother Lode

The Greater Fool - This week the high-end house floggers at Sotheby’s said the GTA luxury market was rocking. (Vancouver’s is crashing.) Meanwhile Re/Max’s latest ‘market report’ claims everything’s peachy. Sales up, listings reasonable, prices stable. The realtors among us insist the correction is over, before it has actually begun. This is akin to yesterday’s tale of IMBY, the […]

September 26th, 2018 | Crowd Teasing

The Greater Fool - This was probably inevitable. So what do you get when you combine a moister thirst for real estate with a cool phone-based app, blockchain technology, human greed, crafty marketers and investor illiteracy? Well, in Van it’s called “IMBY”, which means In My Back Yard. Here’s the idea: crowdfunding. That’s it. People get the chance to use […]

September 25th, 2018 | Ballistic

The Greater Fool - This may not end well, Part Deux. Days ago we told you the beavs are borrowing again.  Household debt’s rising even as interest rates snake higher and real estate wobbles. The decline in new mortgage originations is being made up by refis and home equity LOCs. It may be hard to believe on this blog […]

September 24th, 2018 | M&V

The Greater Fool - Despite the efforts of modern politicians to fuzzify genders and blur sexes, men and women are different. For one thing, the females last longer. That might have something to do with 55-year-old guys playing hard hockey after doing nothing but watching it for half a decade, operating heavy equipment in flip-flops or learning how to […]
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