Thoughts from the Front Line - Having been Puerto Rico residents for almost three years now, Shane and I have learned a few things about living in the tropics. In Dallas, we didn’t often think about hurricanes, though we did have tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Ditto for earthquakes. North Texas is pretty stable, geologically speaking. Now hurricanes and earthquakes are part […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - I write this letter on my way home from Steamboat Springs, Colorado, where I spoke to the fascinating “GoBundance” group of mostly young, successful, enthusiastic entrepreneurs. Before that I was in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, for the Camp Kotok economics/fishing retreat. I’ll have some details for you later. Today we will look back a few […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Change happens quickly and, often, unpredictably. And as we will see, the unpredictable part is actually a mathematical principle. As in the Hemingway quote above, not just bankruptcy but change also happens slowly and then, seemingly, all at once. It’s time passing without change that causes the worst problems, including some historic economic catastrophes. It turns out […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - If you look just at 2021, it seems the US economy is tearing higher. Real GDP grew an annualized +6.5% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department estimated last week. This follows a similar +6.3% first quarter, and a pandemic-interrupted 2020 that turned out not so bad in the end. The July unemployment report showed […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - “T.S. Eliot once wrote, ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.’ It seems the US financial system is bound and determined to find out.” —John Hussman, July 29, 2021 “If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Great news: The US economy is officially out of recession. We know this because the National Bureau of Economic Research’s official recession-calling committee said so this week. The economy has been in an expansion phase since last April, making this the shortest recession on record at only two months. The NBER committee always makes these […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - I have mixed feelings about China. On the plus side, I think the country’s massive economic transformation may be one of the most impressive events in human history. Bringing hundreds of millions from primitive rural lives into relatively prosperous cities within a few years was awe-inspiring. I greatly admire the millions of Chinese entrepreneurs worldwide […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - In the 1980s, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher liked to say, “There is no alternative” to her market-driven economic reform ideas. She said it so much people began abbreviating it as “TINA.” Whatever you think of Lady Thatcher’s policies, the slogan was certainly effective politics. If victory is inevitable, you can either cooperate or be […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - It is as essential to democracy that the minority should voluntarily submit to the measures adopted as it is that the majority should voluntarily approve them. Democratic government rests upon the principle that it is better to count heads than it is to break them. The principle is a good one, but unfortunately, men will […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - “At the end of the day” is a trite figure of speech, but it sometimes fits. It signals you’ve used all your time, and now you’ll wrap up and begin thinking about tomorrow. I like to say designing the Strategic Investment Conference agenda is my personal art form. There’s more to it than just picking […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - You can’t always get what you want But if you try sometime you find You get what you need —by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards, 1969 There’s no way around it: Investing in public companies is always political. Corporations exist because governments charter these artificial entities and legally shield the owners (shareholders) from personal liability. […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Macroeconomic forecasting is too politicized. I don’t mean that in a partisan sense, though it may be so. The bigger problem is that forecasters spend most of their time thinking about central bank decisions and government policies. In the long run, those aren’t the most important factors. Not even close. What really drives economic progress […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem. Let’s note, however, […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - The annual whirlwind is over. SIC was once again a mental overload. This year our virtual schedule spread it over almost two weeks, which was actually nice. The in-between days let the ideas settle a bit before the firehose opened again. Fifty powerful, thoughtful speakers are a lot to absorb. As promised, I’ll continue sharing […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations. While the live events are mostly over now, your SIC pass gives you […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - We’re midway through the SIC 2021, and as I expected, it’s shaping up to be the biggest and best Strategic Investment Conference I’ve ever hosted. So far, all of our presenters and panelists have given stellar performances… and attendees seem to agree with that assessment. Even if you haven’t been there for the live “New […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - We did the first Strategic Investment Conference 18 years ago. I remember one of the partners in the firm that cohosted the event telling me as I walked up to the stage, “John, it doesn’t get any better than this. Don’t screw it up.” He was wrong. Every year the attendees told me it was […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle through” most of our problems was immensely valuable and sometimes profitable. But as our […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, the water actually disappears from the usual shoreline, leaving land where there should be sea. A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to see how often I used the word “bubble.” It was more than I thought, and I wasn’t quoting Don Ho. The bubbles I talked about were anything but tiny. Most of them subsequently popped, too. Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - The last year brought exponential growth in, among other things, use of the word “exponential.” It is now the go-to term when you want to say something is “growing super-fast.” I’ve got to admit it’s getting better (Better) A little better all the time (It can’t get no worse) I have to admit it’s getting […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s. I personally remember that decade well. I was in my 20s and they were formative years. I […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Modern technology is amazing but our ancient forebears built some wondrous things, too. Long-ago historians organized them into “Seven Wonders of the Ancient World.” (Of course, their “world” was the Mediterranean and Middle East. Other wonders existed elsewhere.) Last week I noted how some call compound interest the Eighth Wonder of the World. Is it […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - I have been writing for many years that the US in particular and the Western “developed” world in general were approaching a time where none of our choices would be good. We have arrived. Any choice the government and central banks of the US and the rest of the world make will ultimately lead to […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Broken lines, broken strings, Broken threads, broken springs, Broken idols, broken heads, People sleeping in broken beds —Bob Dylan, “Everything is Broken” from the album Oh Mercy, 1989 I was on a client call earlier this week with Steve Blumenthal. The gentleman is at that stage in life where he needs cash income and not […]