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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

February 10th, 2023 | See Who is Swimming Naked Now

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Famed investor Warren Buffett, of Berkshire Hathaway, has a saying about market bubbles. He says, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Is the tide going out? Who is swimming naked? As discussed last week the bear market is about one year old, and the markets are down slightly […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - One year ago investment expert Jeremy Grantham used his experience and knowledge from a 55-year career in investment management to predict that a new bear market in stocks had begun. He was right as the stock market in the U.S. declined about 20 percent over the following year. One year on, Grantham has an update […] Radio - One of the richest people on earth facing financial collapse

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (BOC) met expectations Wednesday with a 25-basis point increase in rates, and hinted that it might go on hold. This was the eighth consecutive interest rate increase from the BOC. Markets expect inflation to fall quickly allowing the BOC to cut rates, perhaps as soon as the middle of 2023. Until […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Canadian housing market is in a correction, but not yet in a crash. The CREA, a real estate industry association, put out a report that showed a 13.2 percent decline in house prices from the peak that occurred early in 2022. Will this housing correction turn into a crash? The CREA, a perennially bullish […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Inflation as measured by the CPI is moderating but it is not likely to hit the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent soon, despite a widespread and growing belief to the contrary. A popular narrative about inflation: The surge was caused by the war in Ukraine, COVID relief government spending and supply chain disruptions and, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Speculation on the direction for interest rates will dominate stock market chatter in the first half of 2023. In November 2022 market participants had started to anticipate a decline in inflation which would allow the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates, leading to a new bull market in stocks, bonds and housing. Will interest rates […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Commercial fusion energy would change the world. This week U.S. researchers showed that more energy could be produced by fusion than was used in the process. This is called a “net gain”. Is this the energy breakthrough the world was waiting for? Fusion promises to provide a source of energy that is plentiful and cheap, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada resorted to wishful thinking this week while raising interest rates again and hinting that this increase might be the last one. The Bank of Canada (BOC) raised rates this week by 50 basis points. The prime rate at Canada’s banks almost immediately jumped by the same amount to 6.45 percent. In […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), made a public apology for the statements that were made about interest rates. He told people that rates would stay low and now that rates have risen substantially many people are in trouble with very large mortgages. Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said that […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada’s private sector debt problem keeps growing larger. With private sector debt at about 230 percent of GDP, Canada has no room for error. And rising interest rates could force large numbers of mortgage borrowers into default, which could create a financial crisis. But the Bank of Canada is not worried. Bank of Canada staff […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Ben Bernanke, then-chair of the Federal Reserve, made his wrong prediction about real estate in a 2005 interview, just a year before the collapse in house prices in the US. The collapse in housing and subprime mortgages triggered the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) from 2006 to 2009. In October Bernanke was awarded a Nobel Prize […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada is about to hit the wall over CO2 emissions. Canada’s commitment to reduce by 290 million tonnes annually looks increasingly difficult to achieve.   Canada is second only to Saudi Arabia in emissions of metric tons of CO2 per person, due to Canada’s status as a major producer of oil and gas. Other countries, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Tesla reports another record quarter of production but there are hints of some bumps in the road ahead. The company is generating huge amounts of free cash flow, even while building out two new factories. But a weak stock market and looming recession could affect Tesla. In full disclosure I have owned and driven a […]

October 28th, 2022 | Bank of Canada Wavers

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada blinked first as recession looms and the economy continues to adjust to much higher interest rates. The BOC hiked interest rates only 50 basis points on October 26 when the market expected 75 basis points. Is the Bank of Canada signaling that rates are high enough now? Source: MacBeth MacLeod Partners […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China probably slipped into a recession recently. On October 18, 2022, data that were expected for third quarter GDP failed to appear. Websites stated that the information was delayed. China matters to everyone on earth as the second largest economy in the world. But there are signs of trouble. Should we worry about China? As […] Radio - Canada – Inflation, Interest Rate, Wages

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Homeowners and real estate speculators in Canada are already feeling the heat from interest rate increases that have had the effect of tripling mortgage interest for some people. A petition was started in protest against higher rates, and by Thursday October 13, 2022, had gathered over 15,800 signers. This makes the petition one of the […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - OPEC cuts oil production by another 2 million barrels per day, adding to upward pressure on the crude oil price. Will OPEC keep control of the market for crude? On October 5, 2022, OPEC+ announced another 2-million-barrel reduction in crude oil production. OPEC+ refers to the OPEC members plus other large producers who are not […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The panic in UK government bond markets that gripped London Monday was a trigger for emergency action by the Bank of England, which reversed its monetary policy in an attempt to calm markets. The UK budget released late last week was not well received. Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, who delivered the government budget, […]

September 29th, 2022 | Canada Housing Bust Update Radio - What’s it like to ride in a self-driving Tesla?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve jumped its policy interest rate to 3 percent this week, from 2.25 percent. The Fed reiterated its commitment to getting inflation back to the target level of 2 percent, from its current pace of around 8 percent. The Fed is talking tough. Can the Fed walk the walk or is it just […]

September 16th, 2022 | CPI Shocks The Financial Markets

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S. CPI for August shocked the markets this week, leading to an almost 4 percent decline in stock markets. The CPI showed a small decline, but the “core” CPI increased. Will inflation persist at these high levels? The market was expecting a moderation in the inflation number but got a shocking increase in some […]
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