Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The probability of recession in the U.S. is high. The popular definition of recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — has already occurred. But there is no official declaration of recession, yet. Why the delay in calling a recession? Some people argue that a U.S. recession has started. The test of two consecutive […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Recession in Canada

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - This week’s large rate hike by the Federal Reserve means that the era of the Greenspan Put is over. The Fed increased its base rate by 75 basis points this week and hinted that more increases are coming, in spite of widespread worries about a weak stock market and an economy that might be already […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Chinese residential property market is in deep crisis. Thousands of apartment buyers have stopped paying their mortgages because they are upset that the unit they bought has not yet been built. Will this crisis affect China’s stability? Starting about a year ago, China’s residential property market was the focus of many articles when a […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada shocked financial markets with a surprise increase of 100 basis points in the official interest rate. Will this be enough to stop inflation? Here’s an excerpt from the July 13, 2022 announcement: “With the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Crude oil has plunged below $95 this week, from a recent peak of $123 in March 2022. In the past, high prices for crude oil have been associated with recession. Is the price action of crude oil predicting a recession? Crude oil is the most actively traded commodity in the world. Its impact on the […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Is Canada’s Real Estate bubble bursting?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Battery technology will be key to rapid adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The world’s largest EV battery manufacturer — Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) — has announced the specifications for a new battery design. Will this improvement push EVs into a dominant role? Here’s a release including a 4-minute video showing CATL’s battery compared to Tesla’s […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The inflation rate in Canada hit a new high for this cycle as it reached 7.7 percent growth. The Bank of Canada’s goal is to get inflation to 2 percent. Can the Bank of Canada succeed? Carolyn Rogers. Source: Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada said that “inflation […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. Only once before has the Fed hiked by such a large amount. Conventional wisdom says that when inflation is out of control the Fed must hike until it hurts, and even beyond. There is only one parallel to the recent surge in inflation. […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The dominance of the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle is coming to an end as battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption accelerates worldwide. While the demise of the ICE vehicle will take a decade or two, the impact is already being felt. The popularity of ICE-powered vehicles began in the early 1900s when the use of […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Will offices ever run at 100% capacity again?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian banks declared victory, prematurely, over the COVID-19 crisis by reporting increased profits, in most cases, and raising their dividends. The looming interest rate increases powered by the central banks and the markets did not deter the banks in their optimism. Are Canadian banks adequately prepared for higher interest rates and a recession? A closer […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Central bankers are in a tough spot. They would like to curb inflation, but they know that raising interest rates quickly could trigger a recession. In the 1970s central bankers lost the battle with inflation for many years, and eventually they were forced to raise interest rates as high as 20 percent. Can central bankers […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Luna and TerraUSD are the crypto currency tokens which collapsed earlier in May. About $3 billion of reserves are gone and questions about what happened to the stablecoins are piling up. Touted as a safe haven for holders of cryptocurrency, the Luna/TerraUSD system failed spectacularly, going from a peak value of $18 billion in early […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The world is in a food crisis that will affect everyone. The inflation in crop prices is threatening to trigger widespread starvation in some poor countries. Grain producers will benefit from strong prices and increased demand for their exports. Russia, United States, Ukraine, France and Canada are main exporters of wheat in the world. Input […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Interest rates could skyrocket

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Worldwide demand for battery electric vehicles is soaring. The cost of materials needed for vehicle batteries is rising even faster. Will the cost of batteries bring the electric vehicle revolution to a sudden halt? In some countries, such as Norway, the conversion to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) is very advanced. With punitive taxes on internal combustion […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Worldwide demand for battery electric vehicles is soaring. The cost of materials needed for vehicle batteries is rising even faster. Will the cost of batteries bring the electric vehicle revolution to a sudden halt? In some countries, such as Norway, the conversion to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) is very advanced. With punitive taxes on internal combustion […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   On March 29th the Canadian government announced a plan to reduce carbon emissions across all sectors of the economy, targeting a 40-45% reduction below 2005 levels (see plan here). The government is committing to $9.1 billion in new investment towards carbon capture technology, zero-emission vehicles, and cleaner electrical generation. Many stakeholders are still digesting the plan, so […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The current inflation surge in Canada and around the world demands answers from government. Will inflation be brought under control? How? I was invited along, with others, to present on March 28, 2022, to the Standing Committee on Finance for the House of Commons on a Zoom call. The topic is inflation, and the housing […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China Evergrande hit the news again, with a surprising announcement that a creditor had seized US$2 billion of funds from a subsidiary of the company. Creditors are upset that one lender received preferential treatment from the restructuring process, which is now being run by the government of China. Will foreign creditors decide to withdraw all […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Russia is threatening to use nuclear weapons in the current conflict with Ukraine if western countries intervene. Is there a significant possibility of a nuclear war? V. Putin issued a vague threat, but everybody thinks they know what he was talking about. In his warning to Europeans and North Americans who might be thinking about […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canadian Oil, Pipelines

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A doubling in the price of crude oil in a short period of time (a year or less) has been a reliable predictor of recession. In fact, every time in the post-WWII period when oil has doubled, there has been a recession. Will there be a recession after the current jump in oil prices? The […]