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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Homeowners and real estate speculators in Canada are already feeling the heat from interest rate increases that have had the effect of tripling mortgage interest for some people. A petition was started in protest against higher rates, and by Thursday October 13, 2022, had gathered over 15,800 signers. This makes the petition one of the […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - OPEC cuts oil production by another 2 million barrels per day, adding to upward pressure on the crude oil price. Will OPEC keep control of the market for crude? On October 5, 2022, OPEC+ announced another 2-million-barrel reduction in crude oil production. OPEC+ refers to the OPEC members plus other large producers who are not […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The panic in UK government bond markets that gripped London Monday was a trigger for emergency action by the Bank of England, which reversed its monetary policy in an attempt to calm markets. The UK budget released late last week was not well received. Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng, who delivered the government budget, […]

September 29th, 2022 | Canada Housing Bust Update Radio - What’s it like to ride in a self-driving Tesla?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve jumped its policy interest rate to 3 percent this week, from 2.25 percent. The Fed reiterated its commitment to getting inflation back to the target level of 2 percent, from its current pace of around 8 percent. The Fed is talking tough. Can the Fed walk the walk or is it just […]

September 16th, 2022 | CPI Shocks The Financial Markets

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S. CPI for August shocked the markets this week, leading to an almost 4 percent decline in stock markets. The CPI showed a small decline, but the “core” CPI increased. Will inflation persist at these high levels? The market was expecting a moderation in the inflation number but got a shocking increase in some […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday. It also stated that the fight to contain inflation is likely to last for some time. You could imagine them saying, “damn the torpedoes, full speed, go ahead.” How much pain will higher rates cause? The Governing Council of the Bank […]

September 2nd, 2022 | Junk Bond Prices Have Collapsed

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Junk bond prices have collapsed, losing more than 15 percent of their value this year. But the push to higher rates by central banks and the possibility of a deep recession point to a much deeper adjustment during 2023. This will create some great opportunities for stock and bond investors.   This chart shows how […] Radio - Canada wise not to join race to send LNG to Europe

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Germany wants Canada to become a world leader in the production of hydrogen. With a visit from a star-studded delegation from Germany, Newfoundland gains credibility as a potential new centre for clean hydrogen. The delegation included German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, the Economy Minister Robert Habeck as well as the CEOs of Volkswagen, Bayer, Uniper (spin-off […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The massive conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway, run by the famed investor Warren Buffett, reported a large loss in the second quarter. Berkshire lost money because of accounting rules that require that losses on securities that are held must be recorded in earnings. Has Warren Buffett lost his magic touch?   Source: Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett is […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The probability of recession in the U.S. is high. The popular definition of recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — has already occurred. But there is no official declaration of recession, yet. Why the delay in calling a recession? Some people argue that a U.S. recession has started. The test of two consecutive […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The probability of recession in the U.S. is high. The popular definition of recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — has already occurred. But there is no official declaration of recession, yet. Why the delay in calling a recession? Some people argue that a U.S. recession has started. The test of two consecutive […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - This week’s large rate hike by the Federal Reserve means that the era of the Greenspan Put is over. The Fed increased its base rate by 75 basis points this week and hinted that more increases are coming, in spite of widespread worries about a weak stock market and an economy that might be already […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Chinese residential property market is in deep crisis. Thousands of apartment buyers have stopped paying their mortgages because they are upset that the unit they bought has not yet been built. Will this crisis affect China’s stability? Starting about a year ago, China’s residential property market was the focus of many articles when a […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada shocked financial markets with a surprise increase of 100 basis points in the official interest rate. Will this be enough to stop inflation? Here’s an excerpt from the July 13, 2022 announcement: “With the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Crude oil has plunged below $95 this week, from a recent peak of $123 in March 2022. In the past, high prices for crude oil have been associated with recession. Is the price action of crude oil predicting a recession? Crude oil is the most actively traded commodity in the world. Its impact on the […] Radio - Is Canada’s Real Estate bubble bursting?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Battery technology will be key to rapid adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The world’s largest EV battery manufacturer — Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd (CATL) — has announced the specifications for a new battery design. Will this improvement push EVs into a dominant role? Here’s a release including a 4-minute video showing CATL’s battery compared to Tesla’s […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The inflation rate in Canada hit a new high for this cycle as it reached 7.7 percent growth. The Bank of Canada’s goal is to get inflation to 2 percent. Can the Bank of Canada succeed? Carolyn Rogers. Source: Bank of Canada Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada said that “inflation […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. Only once before has the Fed hiked by such a large amount. Conventional wisdom says that when inflation is out of control the Fed must hike until it hurts, and even beyond. There is only one parallel to the recent surge in inflation. […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The dominance of the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle is coming to an end as battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption accelerates worldwide. While the demise of the ICE vehicle will take a decade or two, the impact is already being felt. The popularity of ICE-powered vehicles began in the early 1900s when the use of […] Radio - Will offices ever run at 100% capacity again?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian banks declared victory, prematurely, over the COVID-19 crisis by reporting increased profits, in most cases, and raising their dividends. The looming interest rate increases powered by the central banks and the markets did not deter the banks in their optimism. Are Canadian banks adequately prepared for higher interest rates and a recession? A closer […]
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