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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   Elon Musk, founder and CEO of the leading electric vehicle company Tesla, is making a possibly reckless gamble that will affect the automobile industry deeply. After several price cuts the most popular Tesla Model Y is now less expensive than the average new car in the U.S. Will Elon’s latest gamble pay off? Tesla’s […]

April 21st, 2023 | U.S. Recession is Coming

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A recession in the US is inevitable; probably coming later this year. The increase in interest rates that came from a surge in inflation guarantees that the consumer will reduce spending, probably pushing the economy into recession. Many analysts and economists are now accepting the inevitability of a new recession which may have started already. […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Inflation moderated slightly in March but remains stubbornly high. The consensus is that central banks must cut rates later this year, but the latest CPI for March puts that type of wishful thinking into doubt. Will central banks hold the line on interest rates even as demands to cut rates grow louder? The CPI showed […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Gold prices took off higher this week as doubts about the US dollar spread throughout the markets. The gold bugs have been very quiet during this inflationary period, until now. Are gold and gold miners about to catch a bid? Early articles I’ve written in this weekend note series were on gold, in 2015 and […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - If there is another shoe to fall for the troubled regional banks, commercial real estate is a likely catalyst. Reports arrive daily that many sectors, especially office towers, continue to struggle to meet their commitments. Regional banks hold most of the debt for commercial real estate. As of mid-week, the banking crisis was shuffled to […] Radio - Canada in a great position to profit from green transition

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, are caught between a rock and a hard place. It seems that they might have to choose between saving the banking system and fighting inflation. Their recent statements, until this week, indicated that they would make fighting inflation their only priority, even if that means triggering a recession. But […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Several banks made headlines this week. The Silicon Valley Bank of San Francisco was wound up after deposits fled. First Republic Bank, also of San Francisco, got into trouble and was rescued. Credit Suisse received government aid. Are Canadian banks next? These banks are in trouble for a variety of reasons but there’s a common […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The world’s most successful long-term investor, Warren Buffett, writes an annual letter to shareholders about investing and the recent performance of his investment vehicle, Berkshire Hathaway. This year’s letter came out last weekend, and like always, the short piece contains interesting ideas, comments and tips on investing. Why not take advantage of his wisdom, at […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Tesla presented a live event for investors this week and got a mixed reaction. Was this March 1 event a flop? In a four-hour marathon event, various Tesla employees presented on almost every aspect of their company. First, Musk outlined a vision for how the planet can eliminate fossil fuels entirely. He calls this The […] Radio - BC Real Estate data missing in action

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Russia Ukraine “special military operation” is now one year old and showing no signs of ending. A surprise visit of US President Joe Biden to Ukraine promising “unwavering support” ensures that the US will not cut back on assistance and that Ukraine forces will not be defeated on the battlefield in the near future. […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The fight against inflation is far from over. The US Federal Reserve is committed to taking rates higher, even if the result is a recession or a severe market correction. Can this cycle end? This week there were economic reports showing that CPI inflation is not fading away. The markets were convinced that inflation reports […]

February 10th, 2023 | See Who is Swimming Naked Now

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Famed investor Warren Buffett, of Berkshire Hathaway, has a saying about market bubbles. He says, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.” Is the tide going out? Who is swimming naked? As discussed last week the bear market is about one year old, and the markets are down slightly […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - One year ago investment expert Jeremy Grantham used his experience and knowledge from a 55-year career in investment management to predict that a new bear market in stocks had begun. He was right as the stock market in the U.S. declined about 20 percent over the following year. One year on, Grantham has an update […] Radio - One of the richest people on earth facing financial collapse

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (BOC) met expectations Wednesday with a 25-basis point increase in rates, and hinted that it might go on hold. This was the eighth consecutive interest rate increase from the BOC. Markets expect inflation to fall quickly allowing the BOC to cut rates, perhaps as soon as the middle of 2023. Until […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Canadian housing market is in a correction, but not yet in a crash. The CREA, a real estate industry association, put out a report that showed a 13.2 percent decline in house prices from the peak that occurred early in 2022. Will this housing correction turn into a crash? The CREA, a perennially bullish […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Inflation as measured by the CPI is moderating but it is not likely to hit the Federal Reserve target of 2 percent soon, despite a widespread and growing belief to the contrary. A popular narrative about inflation: The surge was caused by the war in Ukraine, COVID relief government spending and supply chain disruptions and, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Speculation on the direction for interest rates will dominate stock market chatter in the first half of 2023. In November 2022 market participants had started to anticipate a decline in inflation which would allow the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates, leading to a new bull market in stocks, bonds and housing. Will interest rates […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Commercial fusion energy would change the world. This week U.S. researchers showed that more energy could be produced by fusion than was used in the process. This is called a “net gain”. Is this the energy breakthrough the world was waiting for? Fusion promises to provide a source of energy that is plentiful and cheap, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada resorted to wishful thinking this week while raising interest rates again and hinting that this increase might be the last one. The Bank of Canada (BOC) raised rates this week by 50 basis points. The prime rate at Canada’s banks almost immediately jumped by the same amount to 6.45 percent. In […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), made a public apology for the statements that were made about interest rates. He told people that rates would stay low and now that rates have risen substantially many people are in trouble with very large mortgages. Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said that […]
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