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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report was released this week, along with the announcement that the Bank interest rate would remain at 1.75 percent. As happened in the U.S. and with other central banks, the Bank of Canada hinted that rates will be lowered, perhaps as soon as September. The Bank of Canada also […] Radio - Canadians too indebted to take advantage of lower mortgage rates

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Iran and the United States are escalating their hostilities, with recent attacks on commercial tankers by Iran and a U.S. air strike canceled at the last minute by the U.S. Although President Trump ran for election on a policy of opposing any U.S. military involvement in the Middle East, the chances of a confrontation have […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   A highly regarded forecaster, who has an excellent track record going back to the 1960s, claims that a recession may have already started in the U.S. There is ample corroborating evidence of a slowdown, as the Federal Reserve abruptly shifted their policy stance to cutting rates in January 2019. The first rate cut of […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - On Wednesday June 19, 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank announced its decision to hold policy interest rates steady at 2.25% to 2.50%. Market participants are watching the Fed closely to see if rate cuts are coming, as there are some signs of a weakening economy. The wording […] Radio - Bankruptcies, Consumer Proposals Up

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A new book, called “A Brief History of Doom: Two Hundred Years of Financial Crises” by Richard Vague, covers the causes of financial crises. Consistent with my recent book, “When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash”, Vague finds that most crises in history were preceded by a surge in private sector debt. […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - This week I visited Toronto, did several interviews and gave a keynote address. The topic was housing bubbles, debt and Canadian banking. So far, the Toronto housing market remains more resilient than in Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver although there are some cracks appearing in the suburban areas surrounding Toronto. Is the Toronto housing market immune […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China escalated the trade war by using language in a warning that’s only been used twice previously. The latest threat involves withholding the sale of components known as “rare earth elements”. These metals are used in many applications and China is the largest producer in the world. “Don’t say that we didn’t warn you” was […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (BOC) released its Financial System Review on May 16, 2019. This periodic review includes the BOC’s assessment of the key risks, or vulnerabilities, to the Canadian economy and the financial system. One of the central bank’s main responsibilities is to “promote safe, sound and efficient financial systems, within Canada and internationally.” […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   The U.S. trade war with China escalated last week, as a deadline imposed by the U.S. administration passed, without any agreement. The U.S. placed additional tariffs on imports of goods from China that take effect on June 1. The outlook for an agreement, which, until recently, many felt was a certainty, has dimmed substantially. […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz spoke on May 6, 2019 to the Chamber of Commerce in Winnipeg. He gave some detailed comments about housing markets in Canada. He called the housing market “frothy”, continuing the tradition of refusing to call the housing market a “bubble”. But the BOC appears to be concerned. […] Radio - Confusing Bank of Canada Message on Housing

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, is the hot topic today. MMT has pushed its way to the front of the discussion on the economy and likely will be debated during the Presidential election next year. At least one well-known money professional, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, founder of the largest hedge fund in the world, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Attendees enjoyed an excellent conference on the state of the housing market in Vancouver, organized by Ben Rabidoux of North Cove Advisers. About 100 people, including some from California and New York, listened to experts on the state of housing now, and predictions about the future. What is the current state of the housing market? […] Radio - Notes from Vancouver Housing Conference

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A quirk from the field of economics, called the ”money illusion,” will play a big role in the housing market correction now underway in Canada. This correction, which I predict will become a crash, will be very different from the large correction in the 1980s. How does the money illusion work? How will it make […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The great Canadian housing correction is well underway. Reports of declines of greater than 20 percent in single family home prices in Toronto and Vancouver are widespread, especially in the more expensive segment of the market. Large supplies of new homes in Calgary and Edmonton are sitting unsold due to a lack of buyers. My […] Radio - Why a shadow on Tesla despite good sales?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Powerful demographic trends will impact investment markets starting very soon. The demographics behind these trends have been in place since 1946, but their potential for disruption is often ignored while more short-term factors are studied. How will the rapidly aging population in the developed world impact financial markets? I wrote about this as it relates […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Tesla announced a new, all-electric model, called the Model Y, appealing to the light truck/crossover/SUV segment, the largest component of auto sales. The Model Y shares the same platform as Tesla’s best-selling sedan, the Model 3. There are many skeptics expecting Tesla to fail. But the company keeps growing and even made a small profit […]

March 22nd, 2019 | Hard Brexit on the horizon

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Prime Minister Theresa May faces her biggest challenge as leader next week as MPs are to vote again, for the third time, on the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) negotiated with the EU. The EU granted a brief extension to the March 29 deadline but imposed a condition that the Parliament must agree to the WA next […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian lending institutions have provided credit under a relaxed set of rules that resulted in Canadian households being recognized by agencies such as the Bank for International Settlements as among the most indebted in the world. Changes in regulatory guidelines have tightened the rules, making it more difficult for Canadians to borrow to purchase homes. […] Radio - Money tight and people are just not buying things
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