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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Recently the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Paul Beaudry, made a speech about the resilience of the Canadian financial system. He discussed several serious vulnerabilities threatening the system but claims that financial institutions will be fine, even if those risks trigger a financial crisis. Is the Bank of Canada ignoring the risks? The speech was […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Gold bullion and gold mining shares are about as depressed as they ever get in relation to bonds and stocks. Gold and gold mining equities used to be considered a hedge against inflation and the debasement of paper money. With the Fed reluctant to take strong measures to fight inflation will gold finally have its […] Radio - Generation Z has a whole different idea on how to be wealthy

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve issues a financial stability report twice a year that assesses the resilience of the financial system and highlights near-term risks. Is the Fed failing to see the biggest risk? As the report says, “In an unstable financial system, adverse events are more likely to result in severe financial stress and disrupt the flow […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve announced that the quantitative easing (QE) program that has been in place for more than a decade will be phased out gradually. In 2013 when the Fed tried to exit the QE program the markets threw a tantrum, government bond yields jumped from 2 percent to 3 percent and the Fed backed […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and Space-X has become the world’s wealthiest billionaire. He recently passed Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, to reach the number one spot. Will Musk become the first person to reach $1 trillion? As Tesla shares reached a peak of $1,000 on Monday, and the value of the company on the […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada’s statistics bureau, StatsCan, says that CPI-measured inflation is running hot. Year-over-year gains were 4.4 percent for September 2021, one of the fastest rates among developed countries. News reports highlighted rising food and gasoline prices, but house prices are soaring, by 18 percent from a year ago. Why is CPI inflation only 4.4 percent with […] Radio - What are the best ways to get value from your home?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Inflation is threatening to get out of control and central banks could be asleep at the switch. In the U.S. the Fed remains supremely confident of its ability to control rising prices, if needed. Is the Fed overconfident? US inflation CPI hit a 13-year high this week at 5.4 percent growth year-over-year, but central bankers […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Tesla released outstanding sales for the third quarter ending September 30, 2021. At 240,000 vehicles over three months, Tesla deliveries will soon reach 1 million vehicles annually. The rest of the auto industry remains in a deep slump. Is Tesla’s rapid growth proof that the future is all-electric? Tesla sales remain relatively small in comparison […] Radio - Junk Bonds, Tesla Sales, William Shatner Into Space

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China is being hit by the double whammy of a real estate slowdown and electrical power shortages. The Chinese system will be put to a severe test. Will China’s twin challenges impact the world economy? Since China was initiated into the WTO in 2001 the Chinese economy has led the world in economic growth. In […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The China Evergrande debacle continues to worsen. China Evergrande, the second largest property developer in China and the most indebted in the world, missed loan payments this week, triggering a technical default. Is the China Evergrande crisis like the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy? Lehman failed in 2008 with $630 billion in liabilities and $600 billion in […] Radio - Election result will do little to help Canada’s housing crunch

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Irrational exuberance is a term introduced by Alan Greenspan in a speech in December 1996. In 2021, the degree of enthusiasm for financial assets is at an extreme seldom seen before throughout history. Will this episode of irrational exuberance lead to a crisis in markets? Some market analysts and economists are very concerned about the […] Radio - Economists out of touch

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Corporate indebtedness has been increasing at a steady rate for years. The rate of increase has even accelerated since 2008. This amount of debt in the corporate world makes the economy more vulnerable to new shocks. Will elevated corporate debt trigger the next financial crisis? From the (paywall) “Unhedged” Robert Armstrong writes: “Corporate debt has never […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Speculation in stock markets has been growing for many months. But the latest review of several reliable indicators of speculation shows that a shocking amount of speculative fever has appeared in stock market activity. Does this degree of speculation always lead to a stock market crash? The highly respected GMO LLC quarterly letter compiled a […] Radio - How long before bots are driving cargo?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China Evergrande Group, one of the largest property developers in the world, appears to be unable to pay its debts. Investors reacted badly when founder and Chairman, Hui Ka Yan, stepped down from his role as chair of the most important unit of the company, Hengda Real Estate. Could China Evergrande trigger a financial crisis […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change triggered a code red alert on the impact of human-induced global warming. The sixth assessment points out that the earth’s climate has warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius (C) since the Industrial Revolution and immediate action is necessary to limit future temperature increases. Antonio Guterres, UN […] Radio - Did people move out of the big city too soon?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Inflation worries are getting to the Bank of Canada. In an unusual move for a central banker, the current Governor, Tiff Macklem, took to the print media to express a controversial point of view. Macklem wanted to reassure Canadians that inflation is under control, and if ever it is not, the Bank of Canada can […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Stock markets in China are getting even cheaper. The Hong Kong-based Hang Seng Index is down more than 20 percent from its January 2018 high. The Chinese government is cracking down on the largest technology companies. Investors are getting spooked by these anti-market moves. Is this sell-off a buying opportunity? Investing in China means dipping […] Radio - Is Alberta’s economic outlook grim?
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