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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The world’s largest company, Saudi Aramco, is proposing to list its shares on the stock exchange in Saudi Arabia. The prospectus issued last weekend, at 658 pages, includes a lot of interesting information about the oil business, the company’s size and value and forecasts for the future of the oil industry. Is it a good […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is invested in a lot of cash and cash equivalents, about $122 billion in August 2019. Most investment managers cannot afford to wait to invest in stocks when the market is rising, as missing out on gains upsets investors. A decision to delay investing cash can be a career-ending move if […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Saskatchewan Hit by Wave of Mortgage Defaults

November 1st, 2019 | IMF Warns of Slower Growth

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for world economic growth for the fifth straight time this week. The IMF sees growth slowing as global trade tensions escalate and business investment is weak. The words “synchronized slowdown” and “precarious outlook” were used. Is the world experiencing prolonged stagnation? The full IMF report runs 208 pages while […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada, like some wealthy countries that receive substantial resource income, suffers from “Dutch disease”, according to some analysts. That label is used to describe a country that enjoys the income from selling natural resources but is hurt by the side effects of that activity, such as elevated currency valuation, inflated costs and atrophy of other […]

October 18th, 2019 | Technology Disrupts Autos

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The automobile industry is vulnerable to the advent of new technology. Electric-drive technology will force a revolution in the manufacturing and sale of automobiles. The incumbent car makers, auto dealers and those who finance the purchase of cars may not be ready. Worm Capital, of La Jolla, California wrote a report titled “The Big (Auto) […]

October 16th, 2019 | Real Estate Bubbles Bursting

HoweStreet.com Radio - Global Economic Growth Gets Downgrade

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Investment strategies get divided into two camps, growth and value. Most successful investors like Warren Buffet believe that value investing is better than growth investing. However, in the last decade, value investing has performed abysmally compared to growth. Is value investing dead? A Globe and Mail article in August 2019 is titled, “Five reasons why […]

October 2nd, 2019 | Gold, Dow, Money Printing

HoweStreet.com Radio - Modern Money Theory more accurate than classic economic models ?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The next US election will be held on Tuesday November 3, 2020.  It’s probably too early to speculate about who will win. But markets will soon start to anticipate the outcome so investors might want to think about rebalancing their investments, especially if a substantial change looks likely. Is there a dramatic shift underway in […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The recent bombing of one of the most important oil processing facilities in the world brought everyone’s attention back to the Middle East and Saudi Arabia and the threat of war with Iran. If knocking out 5 million barrels of daily production can be done with armed drones, how worried should we be about renewed […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - How Vulnerable is the Oil Supply to Drones?

September 13th, 2019 | China Growth Rate Sputters

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China’s GDP has overtaken the U.S., measured by purchasing power parity. Economic growth in the Middle Kingdom has outpaced the rest of the world for four decades, since economic reforms were instituted in the early 1980s by Deng Xiaoping. If China’s economy slows, due to the global trade war and other factors, the rest of […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Dr. Michael Burry, the lead protagonist in the movie “The Big Short” and successful speculator during the 2009 Global Financial Crisis, has called out the passive investing fad as a bubble that will end in a crash. He says that “the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be”. Will the passive investing […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The deadline for the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union arrives on October 31 this year. This new deadline was set after a six-month extension from the original deadline of March 31, following the two-year time frame triggered by the invocation of Article 50 in 2017. The probability of a no-deal Brexit […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The possibility of a global recession has been discussed openly in the last few months. New data released this week reinforce the view that a recession might be imminent. There are many indicators of when recessions are likely, but indicators are not always reliable, so they are ignored by market traders. Trading the markets by […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Do Negative Interest Rates solve anything?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - For most of my four-decade career, interest rates have been much higher than today. In the late 1970s, and for most of the 1980s, interest rates were consistently above 10 percent. In the last five years a new phenomenon appeared that most observers thought could never happen: Negative interest rates on government bonds. What are […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S.-Chinese competition for global leadership keeps escalating. Although most people see this current conflict as a trade war, there is much more at stake than just trade and tariffs. Throughout recorded history there have been many instances of an upstart challenging the established leader. In 1900, Britain was still the most important military and […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve Bank, headed by Jerome Powell, took the unusual step this week of cutting interest rates when the economy is strong, and the S&P 500 hit all-time highs. Powell stumbled during the press conference while giving reasons for the cut. And then things got more confusing when he called the cut a “mid-cycle […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Tesla came up short for the second quarter, in the eyes of Wall Street analysts who forecast earnings. On other measures, the company succeeded by shipping a record number of new cars and announcing the highest amount of quarterly free cash flow in its history. Bears, usually short sellers, are very vocal on social media, […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Toronto the construction crane capital of North America

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Change is constant, in life and in investing. Most of us would prefer that things continue as they are, especially when it’s to our benefit. But change is often unavoidable and sometimes disruptive. While many people and firms fail to adapt to change, others can prosper by predicting what will come. What are some of […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report was released this week, along with the announcement that the Bank interest rate would remain at 1.75 percent. As happened in the U.S. and with other central banks, the Bank of Canada hinted that rates will be lowered, perhaps as soon as September. The Bank of Canada also […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canadians too indebted to take advantage of lower mortgage rates
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