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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

October 9th, 2018 | Household Debt a Big Threat

HoweStreet.com Radio - Rising Mortgage Rates a Shocker for Many

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - BCA Research’s annual conference delivered some great investment ideas this year, over two jam-packed days, to an audience of about 300 portfolio managers and investors from all over the world. There were some surprising forecasts, in an environment of heightened uncertainty in the world. This conference, organized by one of the world’s top macro research […]

September 21st, 2018 | No One Saw It Coming

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Recent news articles focused on the tenth anniversary of the Lehman Brothers failure and the global financial crisis that followed. A theme runs through much of the commentary; that no one could have foreseen the 2008-09 crisis. That narrative is wrong. There were some who forecast the 2008 financial crisis, in writing, with analysis to […]

September 14th, 2018 | When the Bank Decides

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Recently I attended The Oxford Central Banking Senior Executive Programme. Five days of presentations and discussions reinforced my understanding of the process of creating money — 97 percent of money has been created by commercial banks when they make loans. Some of the experts that presented at the conference discussed the implications of the money […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Should we be copying Germany’s successful Community Banking Model?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Longevity is an interesting concept for investors.  In its simplest form longevity is undoubtedly seen as a good thing because it means more time spent enjoying life or time with loved ones.  With significant gains in longevity over recent decades it is time to examine whether some of the traditionally held beliefs about our relationship […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S. administration has threatened Canada, again, over NAFTA. By negotiating directly with Mexico, the U.S. put pressure on Canada to agree to a new trade agreement. Since NAFTA is a three-way agreement there is no chance that NAFTA can be amended without Canadian approval. And yet, the U.S. President continues to push ahead with […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Canada’s tightrope options for NAFTA negotiatons

August 24th, 2018 | Emerging Markets are Cheap

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Emerging markets equities have underperformed global markets in 2018 and over the last decade. Especially compared to U.S. markets, emerging markets look relatively attractive on a valuation basis. Emerging markets are going to outperform developed markets like the U.S. at some point. Is it time to dip a toe into the murky waters of emerging […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The dire predictions of the English cleric Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798 have proven to be incorrect, so far. Malthus predicted that rapid growth in human population coupled with slower growth in food production would lead to widespread famine and death. Jeremy Grantham, of GMO and the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Italian government debt, Turkish currency concerns

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Inc., is causing trouble for the myriad of speculators who are betting against Tesla. By announcing that he is thinking about buying all publicly traded shares at $420 per share, he sent a chill down the spines of many short sellers. If Tesla goes private at $420, what would it […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S. administration escalated the trade war with China this week. Previously, they had announced 10 percent tariffs on some Chinese goods to take effect on August 31. The U.S. upped the ante with a threat to raise the proposed tariff rate to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese products. Does this escalation […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - The Power of Private Bankers

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Facebook reported results that were a shock to the market, causing a sell-off that saw the social media giant trading 18 percent lower on Thursday morning. The FAANG stocks, (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) represent a large share of the S&P 500. Is Facebook’s stumble a warning for the broader market, or an isolated […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The philosopher Ayn Rand’s worldview continues to influence key U.S. authorities long after her death in 1982. Her most famous follower is Alan Greenspan, who served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve for almost two decades. Shortly after Greenspan retired in 2006, the U.S. experienced its most severe financial crisis since the 1930s. Rand espoused […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (the Bank) raised its overnight interest rate to 1.5 percent this week, as expected. And there was a strong hint from the Bank that there are more increases on the way, with another one or two likely before the end of 2018. Did the Bank’s policy until now promote a dangerous […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The number of people in the Millennial generation is greater than those who are labeled as Baby Boomers. This demographic shift will have profound implications for many facets of society, such as housing, elections and employment. The younger generation is more different than most people realize, making it inevitable that there will be some unforeseen […]

HoweStreet.com Radio - Can government regulations really control economic functions?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Russia is the main supplier of natural gas to Germany and other parts of Europe. The largest Russian energy company, Gazprom, holds about 35% market share of natural gas imported into Europe in 2018. Will Germany and other European countries remain dependent on Russia for their natural gas supplies for decades to come? At a […]

June 22nd, 2018 | The Fog of a Trade War

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Media references to an all-out global trade war are spiking. China and the U.S. exchange threats almost daily, with announcements of new tariffs on a wide range of goods like steel, aluminum and soybeans that are traded internationally. European countries are planning to impose tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation. Is the U.S. pushing the […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked rates again and signaled that there will be more increases to come as the U.S. economy continues to gain strength. The second hike of this year came this week. Now most observers expect two more increases before 2018 draws to a close. Will the Fed continue hiking rates for too […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian housing myths are plentiful. But a new myth popped up recently in the form of a suggestion that “mother nature” is pushing house prices higher in Vancouver and Toronto. Is “mother nature” driving house prices in those two large cities? Does that mean it’s not a bubble? Many people, including former Ministers of Finance, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The government of Canada purchased the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMEP) for C$4.5 billion from Kinder Morgan Canada Limited. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made this controversial move despite substantial political and financial risks. This government purchase ensures that planning and construction work for the project will continue and that the “great national economic benefits” of […]
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