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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash" Radio - Could Canada be in recession?

January 11th, 2019 | The BOC Goes on Pause for Now

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada released its Monetary Policy Report this week along with an announcement that the Bank of Canada target rate would remain unchanged. But in the media release Governor Stephen Poloz insisted that rates are too low and further hikes will be necessary, “over time”. Will the Bank of Canada keep hiking rates […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The price of crude oil (WTI) plummeted from a peak in early October of more than $75, to a bottom near the end of December below $45. This rapid plunge was surprising as OPEC announced production cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day and even Alberta kicked in with government-mandated cuts of 300,000 barrels per […]

December 21st, 2018 | The End of the Greenspan Put

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Federal Reserve open market committee hiked rates again. The stock market didn’t like what Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said at the news conference on Wednesday, and what he didn’t say. Since 1987 when then chair of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, rescued the stock market after a 20 percent drop, the Fed has been […]

December 18th, 2018 | A Soft Real Estate Recession? Radio - Will Alberta really have to cut oil production?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The arrest in Vancouver of a senior officer of Huawei highlights a U.S.-China conflict that could affect investors. Most of the recent US-China articles focus on their so-called trade war. And struggles over trade policy affect stock markets. If it looks like there’s a truce, the market rallies. If there’s evidence of new conflicts, the […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Government of Alberta ordered producers to cut their production of heavy oil by 8.7 percent on January 1, 2019. Claiming to represent the “owners of the resource,” the Notley government decided on this extraordinary intervention into the market. The restriction of supply is expected to make prices rise. Will the heavy hand of government […] Radio - Electric Cars – Advantages and Disadvantages

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Significant technology-related disruption often seems to appear suddenly. Rapid change can impact people’s lives in ways that can’t be predicted. Large impact events are small specks on the horizon now but could loom large in a few years. It’s interesting to look at those distant threats and opportunities and guess which will become permanent. What […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Surging U.S. oil production puts energy exporters at risk. Canada and OPEC are on the spot as new oil production from Texas shale formations surpasses even the most optimistic forecasts. Does the increase in U.S. production spell the end for OPEC? What about Canada’s role as lead exporter of crude oil to the U.S.? The […]

November 22nd, 2018 | Crisis in Canadian Oil Patch Radio - US quickly losing its dependence on Canadian crude

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Brexit is in the news again, as a possible November/December summit between the EU and the UK nears along with the March 29, 2019 Brexit deadline. There are many possibilities for next steps in the Brexit saga, including an agreement on Brexit terms in November or December, a November crisis over Brexit terms leading to […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - World stock markets are experiencing unusual volatility during 2018, and some markets, like China, are down more than 20 percent from the start of the year. Political upheaval in the U.S. and Europe is nearly a certainty in 2019, as U.S. election results are bound to lead to more confrontation between the White House and […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - An anniversary marking 40 years for me as an investment advisor arrived on November 1 this week. When I started as a stockbroker in 1978 I remember calling people to talk about Canada Savings Bonds that earned 9.5% interest. Since then bond yields have shrunk to low single digits but stock market gains, especially in […] Radio - How low Canadian oil prices affect all of Canada

October 9th, 2018 | Household Debt a Big Threat Radio - Rising Mortgage Rates a Shocker for Many

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - BCA Research’s annual conference delivered some great investment ideas this year, over two jam-packed days, to an audience of about 300 portfolio managers and investors from all over the world. There were some surprising forecasts, in an environment of heightened uncertainty in the world. This conference, organized by one of the world’s top macro research […]

September 21st, 2018 | No One Saw It Coming

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Recent news articles focused on the tenth anniversary of the Lehman Brothers failure and the global financial crisis that followed. A theme runs through much of the commentary; that no one could have foreseen the 2008-09 crisis. That narrative is wrong. There were some who forecast the 2008 financial crisis, in writing, with analysis to […]

September 14th, 2018 | When the Bank Decides

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Recently I attended The Oxford Central Banking Senior Executive Programme. Five days of presentations and discussions reinforced my understanding of the process of creating money — 97 percent of money has been created by commercial banks when they make loans. Some of the experts that presented at the conference discussed the implications of the money […] Radio - Should we be copying Germany’s successful Community Banking Model?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Longevity is an interesting concept for investors.  In its simplest form longevity is undoubtedly seen as a good thing because it means more time spent enjoying life or time with loved ones.  With significant gains in longevity over recent decades it is time to examine whether some of the traditionally held beliefs about our relationship […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The U.S. administration has threatened Canada, again, over NAFTA. By negotiating directly with Mexico, the U.S. put pressure on Canada to agree to a new trade agreement. Since NAFTA is a three-way agreement there is no chance that NAFTA can be amended without Canadian approval. And yet, the U.S. President continues to push ahead with […] Radio - Canada’s tightrope options for NAFTA negotiatons

August 24th, 2018 | Emerging Markets are Cheap

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Emerging markets equities have underperformed global markets in 2018 and over the last decade. Especially compared to U.S. markets, emerging markets look relatively attractive on a valuation basis. Emerging markets are going to outperform developed markets like the U.S. at some point. Is it time to dip a toe into the murky waters of emerging […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The dire predictions of the English cleric Thomas Robert Malthus in 1798 have proven to be incorrect, so far. Malthus predicted that rapid growth in human population coupled with slower growth in food production would lead to widespread famine and death. Jeremy Grantham, of GMO and the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment […]
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