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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (BOC) released its Financial System Review on May 16, 2019. This periodic review includes the BOC’s assessment of the key risks, or vulnerabilities, to the Canadian economy and the financial system. One of the central bank’s main responsibilities is to “promote safe, sound and efficient financial systems, within Canada and internationally.” […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook -   The U.S. trade war with China escalated last week, as a deadline imposed by the U.S. administration passed, without any agreement. The U.S. placed additional tariffs on imports of goods from China that take effect on June 1. The outlook for an agreement, which, until recently, many felt was a certainty, has dimmed substantially. […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz spoke on May 6, 2019 to the Chamber of Commerce in Winnipeg. He gave some detailed comments about housing markets in Canada. He called the housing market “frothy”, continuing the tradition of refusing to call the housing market a “bubble”. But the BOC appears to be concerned. […] Radio - Confusing Bank of Canada Message on Housing

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, is the hot topic today. MMT has pushed its way to the front of the discussion on the economy and likely will be debated during the Presidential election next year. At least one well-known money professional, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, founder of the largest hedge fund in the world, […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Attendees enjoyed an excellent conference on the state of the housing market in Vancouver, organized by Ben Rabidoux of North Cove Advisers. About 100 people, including some from California and New York, listened to experts on the state of housing now, and predictions about the future. What is the current state of the housing market? […] Radio - Notes from Vancouver Housing Conference

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A quirk from the field of economics, called the ”money illusion,” will play a big role in the housing market correction now underway in Canada. This correction, which I predict will become a crash, will be very different from the large correction in the 1980s. How does the money illusion work? How will it make […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The great Canadian housing correction is well underway. Reports of declines of greater than 20 percent in single family home prices in Toronto and Vancouver are widespread, especially in the more expensive segment of the market. Large supplies of new homes in Calgary and Edmonton are sitting unsold due to a lack of buyers. My […] Radio - Why a shadow on Tesla despite good sales?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Powerful demographic trends will impact investment markets starting very soon. The demographics behind these trends have been in place since 1946, but their potential for disruption is often ignored while more short-term factors are studied. How will the rapidly aging population in the developed world impact financial markets? I wrote about this as it relates […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Tesla announced a new, all-electric model, called the Model Y, appealing to the light truck/crossover/SUV segment, the largest component of auto sales. The Model Y shares the same platform as Tesla’s best-selling sedan, the Model 3. There are many skeptics expecting Tesla to fail. But the company keeps growing and even made a small profit […]

March 22nd, 2019 | Hard Brexit on the horizon

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Prime Minister Theresa May faces her biggest challenge as leader next week as MPs are to vote again, for the third time, on the Withdrawal Agreement (WA) negotiated with the EU. The EU granted a brief extension to the March 29 deadline but imposed a condition that the Parliament must agree to the WA next […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian lending institutions have provided credit under a relaxed set of rules that resulted in Canadian households being recognized by agencies such as the Bank for International Settlements as among the most indebted in the world. Changes in regulatory guidelines have tightened the rules, making it more difficult for Canadians to borrow to purchase homes. […] Radio - Money tight and people are just not buying things

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada (BOC) announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, continuing its stance in January 2019. The media release emphasized the economic slowdown, both in Canada and globally. It appears the BOC is changing to a “glass half-empty” point of view. As the March 6, 2019 release said, “the slowdown in the fourth […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Index investing, or passive investing, is taking over from the human portfolio manager, also known as active management. This trend is gaining momentum and will not reverse until the next bear market. Individuals now expect above-average returns with high liquidity and low risk, and, most importantly, the lowest fees on the street. Providers of index […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Since 2008 no central bank has been able to increase interest rates by more than 2 percent without taking a break. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of their January 29-30 meeting that reveal an abrupt change of direction, as they state that more increases in interest rates are not needed at this time. If […]

February 15th, 2019 | Australian financial crisis

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Australia avoided the worst of the 2009 worldwide financial crisis by pumping up the residential real estate industry. House prices rose, household debt levels soared, and the economy did very well. Is Australia on the brink of its first recession since the 1990s? Does it mean a housing crash is inevitable? Source: Bank for International […] Radio - Real Estate Stats Lagging Behind Reality

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China is the most important emerging market economy. December data show a slowdown in growth there, sending a chill through world stock markets. One of the key sectors in China is the auto sector, as dozens of domestic companies compete in manufacturing vehicles. Volkswagen and GM also consider China a key market. But the auto […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Some of China’s stock market indices showed some of the worst performance in the world over the last year. The Shanghai market fell 24 percent while the Shenzhen market plummeted 32 percent. Trade uncertainty, slowing economic growth in China and a crackdown by the Chinese government on shadow banking all contributed to this sell-off. But […] Radio - Could Canada be in recession?

January 11th, 2019 | The BOC Goes on Pause for Now

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada released its Monetary Policy Report this week along with an announcement that the Bank of Canada target rate would remain unchanged. But in the media release Governor Stephen Poloz insisted that rates are too low and further hikes will be necessary, “over time”. Will the Bank of Canada keep hiking rates […]
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