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Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A new year and a new decade triggers thinking about what the most rewarding investment theme will be over the next year and beyond. A leading candidate for a dominant theme is the impact of climate change risk. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that climate change is an example of the Tragedy of […] Radio - US-China Phase One Trade Deal Very Shaky

January 10th, 2020 | The U.S. Obsession with Iran

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - People are wondering what will happen after the U.S. assassinated a senior Iranian commander, Major General Qassim Suleimani. Iran is a long-time enemy of the U.S., after the hostage-taking of 52 Americans at the U.S. embassy in Tehran and the overthrow of U.S.-backed Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, both events happening in 1979. Is war inevitable? […] Radio - 2019 North American Economy Healthier Than Expected

December 20th, 2019 | The Trump Impeachment Begins

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - President Donald J. Trump, 45th head of state, is now the third President since 1776 to be impeached by the House of Representatives of the United States. The next step is a trial to be held in the U.S. Senate, and a vote that will determine acquittal or removal from office. Will impeachment or the economy […] Radio - Household debt starting to sting

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The era of a comfortable retirement funded by defined benefit pension plans is fading rapidly from the scene in North America. Companies and governments offering defined benefit plans are struggling to fund their obligations. Some have even reduced payments arbitrarily for pensioners and most no longer offer a pension to new employees. Was the guarantee […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian banks face stiff headwinds next year. They will have to deal with increasing loan losses, weak capital markets and slow retail lending. This is the start of a period of elevated risk, as the credit cycle turns. Should investors reconsider their holdings in Canadian banks? In “When the Bubble Bursts, Surviving the Canadian Real […]

December 3rd, 2019 | GDP Numbers and Real Estate Radio - NATO Summit, Over Priced Military Equipment Radio - Canadian legal pot sales plummet 33% quarter to quarter

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The world’s largest company, Saudi Aramco, is proposing to list its shares on the stock exchange in Saudi Arabia. The prospectus issued last weekend, at 658 pages, includes a lot of interesting information about the oil business, the company’s size and value and forecasts for the future of the oil industry. Is it a good […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is invested in a lot of cash and cash equivalents, about $122 billion in August 2019. Most investment managers cannot afford to wait to invest in stocks when the market is rising, as missing out on gains upsets investors. A decision to delay investing cash can be a career-ending move if […] Radio - Saskatchewan Hit by Wave of Mortgage Defaults

November 1st, 2019 | IMF Warns of Slower Growth

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for world economic growth for the fifth straight time this week. The IMF sees growth slowing as global trade tensions escalate and business investment is weak. The words “synchronized slowdown” and “precarious outlook” were used. Is the world experiencing prolonged stagnation? The full IMF report runs 208 pages while […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada, like some wealthy countries that receive substantial resource income, suffers from “Dutch disease”, according to some analysts. That label is used to describe a country that enjoys the income from selling natural resources but is hurt by the side effects of that activity, such as elevated currency valuation, inflated costs and atrophy of other […]

October 18th, 2019 | Technology Disrupts Autos

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The automobile industry is vulnerable to the advent of new technology. Electric-drive technology will force a revolution in the manufacturing and sale of automobiles. The incumbent car makers, auto dealers and those who finance the purchase of cars may not be ready. Worm Capital, of La Jolla, California wrote a report titled “The Big (Auto) […]

October 16th, 2019 | Real Estate Bubbles Bursting Radio - Global Economic Growth Gets Downgrade

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Investment strategies get divided into two camps, growth and value. Most successful investors like Warren Buffet believe that value investing is better than growth investing. However, in the last decade, value investing has performed abysmally compared to growth. Is value investing dead? A Globe and Mail article in August 2019 is titled, “Five reasons why […]

October 2nd, 2019 | Gold, Dow, Money Printing Radio - Modern Money Theory more accurate than classic economic models ?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The next US election will be held on Tuesday November 3, 2020.  It’s probably too early to speculate about who will win. But markets will soon start to anticipate the outcome so investors might want to think about rebalancing their investments, especially if a substantial change looks likely. Is there a dramatic shift underway in […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The recent bombing of one of the most important oil processing facilities in the world brought everyone’s attention back to the Middle East and Saudi Arabia and the threat of war with Iran. If knocking out 5 million barrels of daily production can be done with armed drones, how worried should we be about renewed […] Radio - How Vulnerable is the Oil Supply to Drones?

September 13th, 2019 | China Growth Rate Sputters

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China’s GDP has overtaken the U.S., measured by purchasing power parity. Economic growth in the Middle Kingdom has outpaced the rest of the world for four decades, since economic reforms were instituted in the early 1980s by Deng Xiaoping. If China’s economy slows, due to the global trade war and other factors, the rest of […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Dr. Michael Burry, the lead protagonist in the movie “The Big Short” and successful speculator during the 2009 Global Financial Crisis, has called out the passive investing fad as a bubble that will end in a crash. He says that “the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be”. Will the passive investing […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The deadline for the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union arrives on October 31 this year. This new deadline was set after a six-month extension from the original deadline of March 31, following the two-year time frame triggered by the invocation of Article 50 in 2017. The probability of a no-deal Brexit […]
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