- the source for market opinions


Hilliard MacBeth

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Author of "When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash"

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - China has a property bubble second to none in the world. Evergrande is the second largest property developer in China and one of the largest in the world. Could Evergrande’s troubles burst the Chinese property bubble? Source: Macmillan Publishing, 2016 Michele Wucker wrote the book on gray rhinos, called “The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - OPEC failed again to reach agreement among its members and others to increase the supply of crude oil, a failure that risks an even greater surge in the price of oil which could trigger a worldwide recession. Five of the last six recessions have been preceded by a spike in the price of crude oil. […] Radio - Will downtown cores ever recover from business, office closures?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian housing is expensive. Household debt in Canada is at record levels. And yet there is still enthusiasm about buying more real estate, and very little fear of a crash. Why are Canadians so complacent about houses? Canadians buying real estate have a very positive view about real estate prices. They have little or no […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - “Wilful Blindness”, by Sam Cooper, describes how Canada has become a prime destination for money laundering. The book, released in 2021, ranks as a best seller for its entertaining and shocking descriptions. However, the reader is forced to ask uncomfortable questions about Canada. Why have Canadians allowed their country to become a hiding place for […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canada has one of the largest housing bubbles in the world, according to Bloomberg Economics. The top 3 countries at risk are New Zealand, Canada and Sweden. The warnings signs are as intense as they were in the run-up to the global financial crisis in 2008, according to Bloomberg. Could Canada’s housing bubble trigger another […] Radio - Little recognition Alberta is world’s biggest oil source for US

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - A turning point for interest rates may have arrived. Federal Reserve members hinted at raising their official interest rate above zero sooner than expected. Until now the Fed had maintained that rates will stay “lower for longer” without any hint imminent increases. How significant is this subtle shift in the Fed forecast for future interest […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased by 5 percent year-over-year, and 0.6 percent in the month of May – an annual rate of 7.2 percent. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy, rose even faster at 0.7 percent. What popular investment would lose 43 percent if this level of inflation […] Radio - Tesla bails on its Plaid Plus Car

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Exxon Mobil suffered a setback at its annual shareholder meeting in voting for members of the board of directors. Exxon lost the vote on three members, giving an activist investment fund a quarter of the seats on the twelve-member board. This new firm, called Engine No. 1, says that it is “pursuing long-term value by […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a special report on May 18, 2021, called “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector”. The IEA is sponsored by the largest countries in the world, including Canada, Australia and the U.S. and publishes the World Energy Outlook annually. This special report pushes for radical […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian house prices continue to soar higher in April, making this epic housing bubble a story for the record books. While affordability has been stretched for several years now, with annual price gains of 20 percent fewer and fewer Canadians can buy houses based on income. How can people afford to chase prices ever higher? […] Radio - Money Laundering, Affordable Housing

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - This week the CPI index in the U.S. hit a new high for this cycle with a 4.2 percent gain from a year ago. Most central bankers claim that they are happy to see inflation move higher, as they want to stimulate the economy. But economists for decades have been trained to focus on inflation […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Targets for emission reductions keep getting increased, by China, the U.S., Canada and now Germany. In a bold new move, Germany pulled forward its target for zero emissions to 2045. Germany, under pressure from court rulings and a looming September election, also upped the size of the emissions reduction by 2030 to 65 percent below […] Radio - Biden infrastructure plan looking shaky

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The US Federal Reserve stayed the course on Wednesday April 28, 2021 by continuing its policy of fighting deflationary forces, even at the risk of inflating asset bubbles in housing and stocks. Its stated goals are maximum employment and inflation averaging 2 percent. Will Fed policies unleash out-of-control inflationary expectations?   Source: Bloomberg Chair Jerome […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Bank of Canada announced this week that it will reduce buying of government bonds during this pandemic recession. The Bank had been buying most of the bonds issued by the government during the pandemic spending spree which created a $350 billion deficit. The Bank of Canada now owns 40 percent of all government bonds […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Rapid inflation reared its ugly head this month, as the Consumer Price Index hit 2.6 percent gain for the last year. The price increase for energy was closer to 15 percent, while food was almost 4 percent. If the CPI keeps rising at this pace, as some predict, interest rates will rise. What will central […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian banks want the government to take measures to halt the latest surge in home prices. Several bank CEOs and economists are urging the government of Canada to slow the runaway housing bubble where prices are advancing at a 15 percent annual rate after inflation. Will the government make bold moves to halt housing mania? […] Radio - Can Alberta pivot economy away from raw oil?

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - The Toronto condo market is the centre of the Canadian real estate investor world. The amateur investor-landlord makes up as much as 50-60 percent of all condo ownership. As rents have been falling steadily for a couple of years, starting even before the 2020 recession, condo owners are wondering if they should hang on or […]

Hilliard's Weekend Notebook - Canadian population growth gets too much credit for rising house prices. In fact, in Calgary and Edmonton, house prices declined or stayed flat while population grew much faster than the Canadian average. But now Canadian population growth is slowing. Can population growth explain house price increases? Recent data from Statistics Canada show a significant decline […] Radio - Is Trudeau going to slap capital gains tax on your home?
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