Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Peace has “broken out” in the Middle East (at least temporarily). Equity markets around the world responded accordingly on Friday. Look for more good news this week! First quarter results released to date by U.S. companies generally have exceeded consensus estimates (notably by most major banks). Frequency of first quarter reports by […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Here comes the good news! First quarter results by major U.S. corporations start appearing in volume this week: Consensus calls for significant year-over-year revenue and earnings gains. Initial focuses this week are reports by major U.S. banks. Also notable will be reports by Taiwan Semiconductor and Netflix on Thursday. The VIX Index […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Friday’s U.S. March employment report, released when U.S. equity markets were closed, provided an encouraging surprise for the U.S. economy: Consensus called for a 59,000 increase in March Non-farm Payrolls versus a revised 92,000 drop in February. Actual was a 178,000 increase. Consensus for the March Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.4% […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The battle between technical analysis and fundamental analysis was clearly won by technical analysis last week. U.S. fundamental analysts once again raised their 2026 earnings and revenue estimates significantly for S&P 500 companies. Despite an increasingly positive fundamental outlook, technical analysis prevailed: The S&P 500 broke below intermediate support at 6,521.92 and […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line We live in strange times! On one hand, technical selling in North American equity markets accelerated last week. The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average broke below their 200 day moving averages on Thursday triggering numerous sell recommendations by technical analysts. On the other hand, consensus for earnings […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The S&P 500 and TSX Composite Index have a history of reaching a seasonal low in mid-March (with the S&P 500 Index outperforming the TSX Composite until mid-December). What about this year? Short term (20 days) momentum indicators for both indices are deeply oversold.  OnFriday, the S&P 500 indicator dropped to 23.21% […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Start of the war against Iran had a significant negative impact on world equity markets last week. By the end of the week, intermediate term technicals for world equity markets had deteriorated from Overbought to Neutral levels. Despite international and political influences, analysts raised 2026 cash flow and earnings estimates for S&P […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line World equity markets are expected to open lower on Monday following start of U.S. and Israel military attacks on Iran on Saturday and subsequent retaliation by Iran. The S&P 500 Index is expected to test short term support at 6,775.50 at the opening. U.S. Aerospace &  Defense ETFs (e.g. PPA and ITA) […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Surprising response by U.S. equity indices on Friday on news that the U.S. Supreme Court disallowed President Trump’s tariff policy! U.S. equity indices recorded significant gains following the news. Look for a counter proposal from Trump this week! Economic focus this week is on the January U.S. Producer Price Index to be […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line All time high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday! Strength is coming from sectors other than technology, an encouraging technical sign. The Average recorded gains despite a 4.5% drop by the Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) last week. Strength in U.S. equity markets is “broadening out” into other sectors including Materials, […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Fourth quarter earnings reports released to date by S&P 500 companies have been a pleasant surprise. Analysts quickly revised S&P 500 earnings estimates higher for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for the next three quarters in 2026. Equity price responses to fourth quarter earnings reports were less encouraging. Selling on news […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Economic focus this week is on the FOMC decision on interest rates released on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST. Quarterly earnings focuses this week are on Microsoft and Meta Platform on Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday and ExxonMobil and Chevron on Friday. Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companiesSource: www.factset.com […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Earnings focuses this week are on fourth quarter reports released by Netflix and MMM on Tuesday, Johnson & Johnson on Wednesday and Visa on Thursday. Economic focus is on the November Core PCE Index released on Thursday. Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com Analyst earnings and revenue estimates […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on fourth quarter reports released by major U.S. banks. The sector moved higher last week in anticipation of strong fourth quarter earnings gains triggered by widening interest rate spreads. Earnings and Revenues Consensus for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com Analyst earnings and revenue estimates recorded slight changes last […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The proverbial “Santa Claus” rally for the S&P 500 Index from December 14th to January 6th is “holding in” just barely. The S&P is up 0.45% since the close on Friday December 12th. Several technical analysts/strategists (e.g. Tom Bowley, Craig Johnson, Tom Lee, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Carter Worth, David Keller, Jeremy […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The proverbial “Santa Claus Rally” by the S&P 500 Index from December 14th to January 6th continues. Strong relative seasonal strength (relative to the S&P 500 Index) for the TSX Composite Index and its related ETFs (e.g. XIU.TO) also continues. Their historic period for outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index is […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Santa Claus arrived later than usual this year! The proverbial Santa Claus Rally in North American equities from December 14th to January 6th started on Thursday December 18th Equity prices responded late last week when analysts significant increased quarterly earnings and revenues estimates. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The TSX Composite Index has just entered its strongest period of seasonal strength in the year relative to the S&P 500 Index. During the past 20 periods from December 14th to March 3rd, the TSX Composite Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 2.7% per period.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on interest rate decisions announced on Wednesday by Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Consensus calls for no change in the Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate to major Canadian banks at 2.25% and a 0.25% drop by the Fed Fund Rate to 3.75%. Consensus for Earnings […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Seasonal strength by North American indices from late November to early January “kicked in” last week despite limited favourable economic and corporate news. Notable was strength by the NASDAQ Composite Index on a real and relative basis (relative to the S&P 500). Economic News This Week U.S. September Construction Spending is released […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Look for volatile, but trendless equity prices on lower than average volume in North American equity markets this week. U.S. equity markets are closed for Thanks Giving on Thursday. Institutional investors have a history of “going on holidays” after the opening on Wednesday. Ditto for Canadian equity markets! The TSX Composite Index […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line This year, North American equity markets are not following their traditional pattern of seasonal strength from late October to the first week in January. The S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Index have remained in a relative tight trading range since the beginning of October. The equal weighted S&P 500 ETF […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line U.S. equity indices recovered sharply in the second half of trading on Friday: That’s when Democrat members in the Senate offered a proposal to end the federal government shutdown. Prior to the news, price levels for U.S. and Canadian equity indices, related ETFs and individual equities extended losses for the week. The […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Will U.S. and Canadian indices follow their traditional pattern of moving higher this year from November until the first week in January (i.e. the so called Christmas rally season)?

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on: Interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada on Wednesday. Big cap corporate quarterly results released on Wednesday (Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta) and Thursday (Apple and Amazon). Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com Analyst earnings and revenue estimates increased […]