Don Vialoux
Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at www.timingthemarket.ca. Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).
October 5th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday October 5th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on September U.S. inflation reports. Consensus calls for a slight reduction for September CPI and September PPI on a monthly basis and year-over-year basis. Official launch of the third quarter report season starts on Friday when results by some of the biggest U.S. banks are released. As noted […]
September 28th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 28th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Greatest influence on equity markets last week was the recovery in China after the Peoples Bank of China added monetary stimulus to the economy. Chinese equity indices, ETFs and individual equities listed on North American equity markets soared. Sectors influenced by a recovery in China quickly caught the wave: North American gold, […]
September 21st, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 21st 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line All-time highs were recorded by the S&P 500 and TSX Composite Index following the FOMC’s decision to lower its Fed Fund Rate by 0.50%. Positive technical action following the decision contributed to strength. “Risk on” sectors (technology, materials, industrials and Consumer Discretionary) led the advance. History calls for a volatile/mixed trend for […]
September 14th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday September 14th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the FOMC’s economic statement released on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for a 0.25% reduction in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.25%. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com A word of caution! Consensus for third quarter results calls for significantly […]
September 7th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday, September 7th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Brutal technical action by world equity markets last week! Equity markets are following their historic pattern of moving lower in the month of September. Offsetting was a drop in bond yields that triggered strength in bond prices. The price of the long term Treasury Bonds iShares popped to a 15 month high.
August 31st, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 31st 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Look for relatively quiet North American equity markets this week. Traders are partially on holidays after returning from the Labor Day holiday weekend. Corporate news is quiet prior to release of third quarter results starting in the second week in September . Economic focus is on Canadian and U.S. August employment reports […]
August 24th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 24th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Responses to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole comments triggered significant buying in North American equity markets on Friday. According to Powell, “The time has come to adjust our restrictive monetary policy”. His comments implied that the FOMC likely will start to lower its Fed Fund Rate at its next meeting on […]
August 17th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 17th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is news from the Jackson Hole Symposium starting on Friday. Federal Reserve chairman Powell is expected to offer an outlook on U.S. inflation rates, employment rates and timing of a possible reduction in the Fed Fund Rate. Consensus for Earnings and Revenues for S&P 500 companies Source: www.factset.com Quarterly […]
August 10th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 10th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on U.S. inflation and its impact on U.S. interest rates. Growth in Producer and Consumer Prices on a year-over-year basis continues to trend down, but at a lower rate. Traders will watch closely the July PPI report on Tuesday and the July CPI report on Wednesday. Second quarter […]
August 3rd, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday August 3rd 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line World equity markets recorded significant technical weakness last week. Weakness on Friday was extended by a disappointing U.S. July Employment report released at 8:30 AM EDT. Breakdowns below intermediate support levels were recorded by North American, European and Far East equity indices and their related Exchange Traded Funds. Best chart to demonstrate […]
July 27th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 27th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the FOMC announcement on the Fed Fund Rate at 2:00 PM EDT Wednesday. Quarterly earnings reports released to date for the most part have been positive. Focuses this week are on reports by Amazon and Apple on Thursday. Seasonal influences during a U.S. Presidential Election year historically […]
July 20th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 20th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets experienced substantial rotation last week: Out of the technology sector and into other economic sensitive sectors such as Transportation, Banks and Biotech. Second quarter results released to date have been significantly higher than consensus. According to www.FactSet.com 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies have released a positive earnings […]
July 13th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 13th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The Summer Rally continues. All-time highs were set by broadly based equity indices including TSX Composite Index, S&P/TSX 60 Index, S&P 500 Index, Equal Weight S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Australia All Ordinaries and Nikkei Average! Equity markets are responding to encouraging second quarter results released by major companies and […]
July 6th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday July 6th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The Summer Stock Market Rally from late June until at least the end of July has started. Corporate focuses this week are on second quarter results released on Friday by U.S. money-centered banks (including JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon): According to www.FactSet.com “Bank earnings season […]
June 29th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 29th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The stage is set for the Summer Rally. See comments below Economic News This Week June ISM Manufacturing PMI released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday is expected to increase to 49.0 from 48.7 in May. May U.S. Construction Spending is released at 10:00 AM EDT on Monday. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell […]
June 22nd, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 22nd 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on the May Core PCE Price Index released on Friday. This report is the FOMC’s most important indicator for inflation. A drop below the 2.8% annual rate set in April will signal easing inflation pressures and will set the stage for the traditional “Summer Rally” by U.S. equity […]
June 15th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 15th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Investors responded to encouraging U.S. economic news last Wednesday. Core May Consumer Price Index on a year-over-year basis dropped to 3.4%, extending an intermediate downtrend. U.S. equity indices moved higher on the news: the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Composite Index jumped to all-time highs in anticipation of a lower Fed […]
June 8th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 8th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on news following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday in response to the stronger than expected U.S. May employment report released last Friday: May Non-farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings came in “hotter” than expected. Under these conditions a reduction in the Fed Fund Rate by the FOMC probably […]
June 1st, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday June 1st 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets responded favourably to the April core PCE Price Index report released on Friday. Consensus was an increase of 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in March. Actual was an increase of 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the Index gained 2.8%, in line with consensus. This Index is the […]
May 25th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 25th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The gain by one stock dominated performances by the S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ Composite Index last week, the 15% price advance by heavily weighted Nvidia following release of its better than expected quarterly results. Other major U.S. equity indices were notably weaker: Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.33%, Dow Jones Transportation […]
May 18th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 18th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The “bulls” regained control of U.S. equity markets last week. S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite Index broke to all-time highs. Leadership was provided by technology sector: Technology SPDRs (Symbol: XLK) moved above $212.00 to an all-time high. A speculative spike in the “Meme stocks” also contributed to […]
May 11th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 11th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line All-time highs at the close on Friday for the Europe, Africa and Far East Index (EAFE Index) and its related ETF: EFA! Strength in the Index was bolstered by an all-time high set by Europe iShares (IEV) and by strength in Chinese and South African equity indices. Honorable mention is given to […]
May 4th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday May 4th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The Fabulous Four (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta) dominated technical action by broadly based U.S. equity indices last week. Higher than consensus quarterly results by these dominant companies prompted analysts to increase significantly first quarter earnings and revenues estimates for the S&P 100 Index and the NASDAQ 100 Index. Their strong earnings gains […]
April 27th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 27th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week in on the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates announced on Wednesday at 2:00 PM EDT. Consensus calls for no change in the Fed Fund Rate currently at 5.25%-5.50%. The question is “How long will the Fed maintain this rate?” Release of a slightly “hotter than consensus” March core […]
April 20th, 2024 | Tech Talk for Saturday April 20th 2024
Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Short term technical action by world markets remains focused on the Israel/Iran conflict. Growing uncertainties had a negative impact on equity markets and a positive impact on commodity prices last week. First quarter earnings report season ramps up this week. Responses to results released to date have been mixed. Focuses this week […]