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Don Vialoux

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Donald Vialoux is author of the free blog Tech Talk, a daily investment report available during the past 20 years at Comments focus on the seasonal and technical outlook for equity indices, commodities and sectors. Mr. Vialoux has 53 years of experience in the investment industry and is a past president of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA).

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices and related stocks are closely following their weakest period of the year from the second week in September to the second week in October. Broadly  based U.S. equity indices completed Double Top or Head & Shoulders patterns (including a double top pattern the Dow Jones Industrial Average on […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line History suggests that short term caution is warranted for a new investment in North American equity markets. According to , “The weakest time of year for stocks is at our doorstep, encompassing the final weeks in the third quarter. Between September 19th and the last day of the month on September […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Lots of “noise” bothering North American equity markets this week! Possible autoworker strikes in Canada and U.S. starting September 14th. Bargaining positions between the union and companies remain wide. Possible shut down of the U.S. government by Congress if unable to reach a deficit limit agreement before the end of September. The […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line A word of caution! North American equity indices have a history of reaching a short term peak near the middle of September followed by the weakest period in the year to the second week in October. Charts on the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average show a similar pattern.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line High and rising interest rates on long term North American Treasuries have “put a lid” on North American equity markets. Comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Friday echoed comments by the Bank of Canada that central banks in North America are “prepared to raise rates further”. The stage is set for […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line  Intermediate swing traders looking for continuation of an upward trend by North American equity markets were rewarded for their patience last week. The S&P 500 Index at 4,369 moved closer to technical support near 4,200. The TSX Composite Index at 19,818 moved closer to technical support near 19,400.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Now is the time for intermediate swing traders to become patient! Led by the “Magnificent Seven” big cap technology stocks, U.S. equity indices came under short term trading profit taking pressures last week. Intermediate term and long term momentum data available at the end of this report shows that the S&P 500 […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity indices reached an intermediate peak on or about July 27th. Thereafter, volatility increased significantly as prices moved lower. The period for increased volatility in North American equity markets has arrived. Intermediate downside risks exists between now and mid-October.

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line North American equity markets continued to respond to better than expected negative corporate news. Second quarter results released to date by major U.S and Canadian companies have been better than expected: Last week, 80 % of reporting S&P 500 companies reported higher than consensus earnings and 64% reported higher than consensus revenues. […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus next week is on news released from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Consensus calls for at least another 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.50%. Second quarter results released by S&P 500 companies were mixed at best last week. Better than consensus results were released by most U.S. money […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Here come second quarter results! Early responses to better than consensus reports released last week were encouraging with nice gains recorded by Pepsico, Delta Airlines, UnitedHealth Group and JP Morgan. However, selling pressures appeared on Friday: Selected stocks sold down sharply after reporting less than consensus quarterly results. Notable was weakness in […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Equity markets on both sides of the border are on central bank watch. In Canada, the Bank of Canada is expected to increase its interest rate for Canadian banks on Wednesday from 4.75% to 5.00%. The BOC is expected to respond to continuing strength  in Canada’s employment. The June Employment report reported […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Calm before the storm! Expected corporate news from major U.S. and Canadian companies this week is exceptionally quiet. Many corporations have entered their “quiet time” approximately 10 days prior to release of quarterly results. Volumes on North American equity markets typically are well below average this week. Bid/Ask spreads widen. Traders are […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Investors are expected to enter into a “holiday mood” this week prior to national holidays on July 1st in Canada and July 4th in the United States. Volume in equity markets on both sides of the border typically drops as the week progresses. Price volatility is higher than average. Broadly based North […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Changes in currencies are having an important impact on equity and commodity prices.  The U.S. Dollar Index and its related Exchange Traded Note (Symbol: UUP) moved significantly lower following news on Wednesday from the Federal Reserve that it plans to maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% for now. In response, world […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line: Watching for responses to bad news! Investors are confronted with a series of bad news events this week:   News from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Members of the Committee hinted that they will “stand pat” with the current Fed Fund Rate at 5.00%-5.25% in anticipation of more “data points” (including the May […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line U.S. and Canadian equity indices and related ETFs ended the week with improving technical profiles, typical of their historic trend to the first week in June. They also have a history of moving lower between now and the last week in June. News to watch this week! Frequency of corporate earnings reports […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Big cap technology stocks and their relation to Artificial Intelligence (AI) dominated upside technical action last week. Excluding stocks in this sector, most U.S. and Canadian equity sectors moved lower. Resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling has not arrived yet. New deadline officially is Friday June 5th, but unofficially the deadline is […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Lots of noise, typical for the month of May and the first three weeks of June! On the positive side, any stock remotely connected to Artificial Intelligence soared last week. The S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ 100 Index briefly touched nine month highs on Friday thanks to their technology equity content connected […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Prices for most world equity indices recorded small losses last week, typical of historic technical action early in May after most first quarter reports have been released. Analysts take a closer look at projections for the remainder of the year and adjust their earnings and revenue estimates accordingly. This year, they are […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Sell in May and Go Away? Not exactly! The expression is based on expectations that U.S. equity markets peak in the first week in May and bottom at the end of October. The expression is partially true: Most of the gains by the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1950 […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focuses this week are on FOMC’s decisions on monetary policy released on Wednesday. Consensus calls for a 0.25% increase in the Fed Fund Rate to 5.00%-5.25%. Of greater importance is guidance offered on the Committee on future changes to the Rate. The latest economic data point, March core PCE Price Index released […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week is on quarterly reports: Four of the biggest market cap companies in the U.S. are scheduled: Microsoft and Alphabet on Monday, Meta Platforms on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. In addition, six Dow Jones Industrial Average companies are scheduled to report. Most quarterly reports released to date have nicely […]

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line Focus this week shifts to first quarter earnings reports. Financial services dominate the list of reporting companies. Responses to results released by JP Morgan and Citigroup on Friday were encouraging. As Jim Cramer noted on Fast Money on Friday, “I think that we will see a pleasant surprise”. 

Tech Talk - The Bottom Line The calm before the storm! Frequency of first quarter reports by S&P 500 companies starts slowly next week and ends in a rush on Friday. Initial focus is on reports released by major U.S. banks. Consensus calls for a year-over-year drop in first quarter earnings by S&P 500 companies of 6.6%. Responses […]
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