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October 31, 2024 | A Trump Victory Already Priced Into Stock Market

Gold still has room to go higher

October 27, 2024 | An Election Week Scenario

You can always tell when portfolio managers are hard at play, immersed in an epic circle jerk that has become more tediously familiar with each passing week. And so it went on Friday, as money migrated for no discernible reason from certain, temporarily disfavored stocks to flavor-of-the-day hotties.  It seemed almost as though the chimpanzees […]

October 20, 2024 | Investors Go All-In for Trump

Wall Street has gone all-in for Trump, piling up such extravagant gains in the last few weeks that one might wonder what bold miracles investors expect of him. More likely, unfortunately, is that within a year or two of taking office, he will be overwhelmed by the collapse of a financial bubble that required only […]

October 17, 2024 | Is the Stock Market Anticipating a Trump Victory?

The strain on the grid from AI will be incredible

October 13, 2024 | Kamala Unwinding

[I can’t stomach news reports that take Kamala Harris’s candidacy seriously, especially articles suggesting with brazen implausibility that she is polling dead-even with Trump in some important swing states. Fortunately for those creeped out by all the tilted campaign coverage, my colleague James Howard Kunstler has compressed everything you need to know about the election into a […]

October 6, 2024 | Stocks Act Fearless as Oil Price Soars

If you can keep a cool head while everyone around you is panicking, perhaps you don’t understand the situation. That’s what they say, anyway. It is exactly what we saw last week when stocks barely shrugged even as the shooting war in the Middle East took another baby step toward nuclear conflagration. The oil markets […]

September 29, 2024 | Levitating Kamala

Expect stocks to continue their heedless waft into outer space until the election. They would not likely do so if investors even remotely imagined Kamala Harris might win. James Kunstler provided the most succinct reason we’ve heard for why this is not going to happen:  “The people in this land are finally sick of a […]

September 22, 2024 | Sell the News

The stock market went bonkers following the Fed’s first rate-cut since March 2020, but it’s more than a little tempting to sell the news. A return to easing had been rumored for the last couple of years, but with a pitchfork mob threatening to descend on the Eccles Building, Fed Chairman Powell finally gave in […]

September 19, 2024 | Will Fed Cut Save Stock Market from Correcting?

Does Gold still have room to go higher?

September 15, 2024 | The ‘Wealth Effect’ Is a Delusion and a Fraud

The so-called ‘wealth effect’ is the Tulipmania of this era on steroids, creating untold sums of money from speculative spume. If materializing vast quantities of spendable cash is the goal, a revved-up wealth effect makes the Fed Open Market Committee look like a ladies’ luncheon club. Indeed, it can take long months or even years […]

September 8, 2024 | Our #1 Bellwether Is at Cliff’s Edge

I continue to believe the bull market’s fate can be divined simply by paying close attention to price action in Microsoft shares. The company is not only the second-largest in the world by capitalization, slightly behind Apple; it is also the most important. That’s because its huge stream of revenues is all but impervious to […]

September 5, 2024 | Another 2008 Super Recession Ahead?

Was Post-Labour Day Market Dip Predictable?

August 22, 2024 | Which Stock to Watch to Catch Market Peak

Crude not reacting to world Geo-political events

August 18, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…

[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday for me, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if […]

August 8, 2024 | Could Market Rally Hit New Highs?

Interest rate cuts will be too late to prevent recession.  Special Offer!

August 4, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…

[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if stocks go […]

July 28, 2024 | Time for a Holiday…

[I’m taking a summer break, so this will be my last commentary until after Labor Day. It will be the usual busman’s holiday, however, and actionable ‘touts’ for popular symbols will be updated ‘round-the-clock as always. Some recommendations will be accessible to non-paying subscribers, so be sure to check the home page regularly, especially if stocks go […]

July 25, 2024 | Is it Possible the Bull Rally is Over?

Crude’s expected break out peters out

July 21, 2024 | Big Selloff Was Tightly Scripted

Bears shouldn’t get their hopes too high just because the S&P 500 plummeted for three straight days last week. The selloff seemed tightly scripted, given that the Dow Industrials were rising just as sharply at least part of that time. This is shown in the chart above, which captures price action on Thursday. The implication […]

July 14, 2024 | Summer Doldrums It Ain’t

The dog days of summer have returned with a vengeance to Florida this year, especially in my home. The air conditioner’s condenser coil sprang a leak, which is hardly unusual considering that it’s eight years old. What is unusual, and causing more than a little inconvenience, is that the broken part will take a month […]

July 11, 2024 | Does AI Deserve All the Money It’s Getting?

Will AI make you more productive or just take your job?

July 7, 2024 | Nostalgic for Summer Doldrums?

The dog days of summer have returned with a vengeance to Florida this year, especially in my home. The air conditioner’s condenser coil sprang a leak, which is hardly unusual considering that it’s eight years old. What is unusual, and causing more than a little inconvenience, is that the broken part will take a month […]

June 30, 2024 | Dollar Derangement Syndrome

Of all the markets tracked by Rick’s Picks, the dollar arguably has been the most interesting. This might seem paradoxical, given the relatively placid look of the Dollar Index chart above. Although there has been moderate turbulence since early last year, the overall impression is of a transoceanic flight cruising within a vertical range of several […]

June 27, 2024 | Is the Stock Market a One Trick Pony?

Should tariffs replace income taxes? Special Free Trial Offer!

June 23, 2024 | ‘Strong Economy’ Is a Dirty Lie

The disconnect between tight Fed policy and a U.S. economy on the brink of recession is growing more unsettling every day. A key question is which economy we are talking about, since there are two distinctly different ones that Fed actions can affect. The first is the economy of consumer goods and services. It is […]

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