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September 26, 2021 | Is the Fed Quietly Preparing for an Evergrande Tsunami?

[Recently I wrote here that the world’s biggest financial institutions are in Evergrande muck up to their eyeballs, even if they claim that their exposure is small in relation to their respective assets. The trouble is, the supposed assets are as ethereal as Evergrande’s grotesquely inflated real estate holdings. In the guest commentary below, Shawn […]

September 25, 2021 | ‘Katie-Bar-the-Door’ Time for Evergrande Speculators?

  Bears had a rare chance to get short with impunity last week — arguably the first such free-money opportunity since the bull market began more than 12 years ago. With the Evergrande saga unfolding in real time, shares appeared to be doing a Wile E. Coyote ahead of Friday’s opening. Their gravity-defying behavior reflected […]

September 15, 2021 | Stock Markets, Inflation, Deflation, Bitcoin

Gold, Silver, Small Business

August 31, 2021 | Is The S&P 500 a Proxy for the Fed?

Supply shortages plague world economy

August 29, 2021 | The 800-Pound Tapeworm in the Room

Jackson Hole hubris was operating at full strength last week as investors around the world anxiously awaited the announcement on Friday that would send the markets into hyperdrive. The broad averages had in fact churned impassively for several days ahead of whatever lame twaddle concerning The Tapeworm lay in store. The question of when the […]

August 22, 2021 | From Doug Behnfield…

[Editor’s note: The following was sent out to clients in mid-July by my friend Doug Behnfield, a financial advisor and senior vice president at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management in Boulder, CO.  Long-time followers of Rick’s Picks will be familiar with Doug’s work, since his thoughts have appeared here many times. I have always referred to him not […]

August 17, 2021 | Markets – This Wall of Worry Seems Different

Derivatives could lose quadrillions if markets dive

August 15, 2021 | Why This Wall of Worry Is Different

There is increasing confusion in America about how to handle the rapid spread of Covid’s delta variant. The stock market can usually tell us how much fear is out there, but this time Wall Street seems, if not quite clueless, then certainly heedless. The broad averages have moved steadily higher in recent weeks, caused more […]

August 8, 2021 | Why ‘Work-at-Homes’ Darken America’s Future

  Bloomberg missed the real news in its flippant headline, “Return to the Office Five Days a Week? How About Never Again”. The article was just family-page pap about how work-from-home employees aren’t complaining about the indefinite postponement of a back-to-the-office mandate. With the delta variant on a headline rampage, exile in suburbia seems to […]

August 3, 2021 | More Signs the Market is Topping

Does China’s crack down on certain industries make sense?

August 1, 2021 | Why Low Rates Can’t Save Us

  If you’re worried that interest rates are about to explode because of inflation, the graph above would seem to offer comfort. From a visual standpoint, the gentle rollover that has occurred over the last several months has sapped the vigor from a menacing spike that had pushed yields on the 10-Year Note from 0.40% […]

July 25, 2021 | Deflation Hinges on a Dollar that Refuses to Die

  My friend Greg Hunter at USA Watchdog weighed in recently with such a despairing outlook for the dollar that it’s probably a good time to determine whether the charts support this view. Here’s the post from his site, which over the years has featured my own thoughts on deflation, the global economy and other topics: The […]

July 20, 2021 | How to Deal With Indecisive Markets

Debate still on about inflation vs deflation

July 18, 2021 | Dollar’s Fans Needn’t Fear Biden SDRs

  The latest attempt to move the global economy away from the dollar’s dominance involves a plan by Biden to issue $650 billion of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) through the IMF. Ardent fans of the greenback needn’t worry, however, since this sum, as large as it seems, is just a drop in the bucket compared […]

July 11, 2021 | The Monster Rally and Its Deceptions

Rick’s Picks subscribers ended the week transfixed by a powerful rally in the E-Mini S&Ps whose inevitable destination was 4362.25. Why inevitable? Mainly because a chat-room ace whose trading system has been getting the big swings exactly right lately had said so the day before. If he were a pistol sharpshooter, this trick would be akin […]

July 6, 2021 | Gold, Silver, US Dollar, Bitcoin

Inflation vs. Deflation, Real Estate

July 4, 2021 | So Maybe Gold Actually Does Suck

I was premature when I gave the green light to gold bulls five weeks ago.  “If you’re a bullion investor,” I wrote at the time, “you can buy the stuff now without fear or qualm.” Had you taken this advice, you’d have gotten aboard just in time to get smashed in the head, since gold […]

June 27, 2021 | Baseball Is Cure for Covid Fear-Mongering

Fear of the much-ballyhooed Delta variant was nowhere in evidence recently at North Carolina’s McCormick Field, home of a minor-league baseball team called the Asheville Tourists. The team, a high Single-A farm club operated by the Houston Astros, filled McCormick’s 4000 seats to near-capacity, and there was nary a mask in sight. It was great […]

June 22, 2021 | Stock Markets Ignoring Predictions

Bitcoin on shaky ground

June 20, 2021 | Is Repo Madness Predicting a Crack-Up?

  [The following was written by a San Francisco friend from the hedge fund world, Shawn Brown. It buttresses the suspicion that while there seems to be plenty of credit money available for speculation, the collateral behind it is getting thinner and shakier by the week.  The Fed, with $8 trillion of Treasury paper and other […]

June 13, 2021 | State Budgets Shout ‘TOGA!!!!’

Flush with stimulus, the states are in a spending mood that can be summed up in a single word:  TOGA!!!!!  Take Oklahoma. Their latest budget reflects an annual increase of nearly 18%, according to report from the Associated Press. It includes bigger earmarks for education, corporate and personal tax cuts, credits for school choice and […]

June 8, 2021 | Bitcoin in a Downward Spiral

Gold showing why it’s dependable

June 6, 2021 | Enjoy Inflation While It Lasts

If we’d known the pandemic would trigger the most reckless monetary blowout in history, could anyone have imagined that the U.S. dollar a year later would have fallen by just 14%? That doesn’t even qualify as a bear market, just a middling correction of a powerful bull run begun in 2008, a year ahead of […]

June 1, 2021 | Gold Really Sucks. Here’s Why…

Sucks? Yeah, sure. Maybe in the eyes of crypto fanatics and the quacks who re-invent monetary policy every month. In actuality, few things in the material world suck less than gold. Sorry to resort to headline flim-flammery to get your attention, but it was time to upgrade our enthusiastic endorsement of gold — and silver! — to […]

May 25, 2021 | Gold Bullion, Gold Miners, Bitcoin, Deflation, Inflation

Real Estate, Treasuries, Consumer Confidence

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