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November 22, 2020 | Time to Sell the News

The stock market is under heavy distribution, and for good reason: Even if the vaccines we’ve been reading about lately are as effective as claimed, they will be too late to prevent tens of thousands of U.S. business from going under. Supposedly, vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are nearly 100% safe and 95% effective. This […]

November 19, 2020 | A Tough Year for Santa

The smell of distribution is as strong as wood smoke these days, but you’ve got to give DaBoyz credit for keeping a million-ton garbage barge airborne while they work their special brand of magic and deception. Usually, Wall Street is pushing the ‘Santa rally’ narrative hard at this time of year, leavened by urgent speculation […]

November 17, 2020 | Scampering Up the Wall of Worry

Rick’s Picks has tracked the Russell 2000 ever since it became apparent in mid-summer that the chimps paid to throw your hard-earned money at a relative handful of stocks and invented themes had agreed to shovel most of it into small-caps. It should be obvious by now even to hard-core permabears that the ballistic skew of […]

November 15, 2020 | Whose Facts Do You Trust?

Biden, schmeiden. On Wall Street, it would seem, no one cares. Stocks are up substantially since the election even though the unsettled presidential race remains one of two unusually large elephants in the room. The other is the pandemic, which appears close to going out of control in some areas of the U.S. This, too, […]

November 10, 2020 | Stocks Finally Bend to the Weight of News

Tech stocks hit a wall Tuesday, unable to remain afloat on a tide of stressful news. Although Wall Street would have us believe investors shouldn’t care who wins the election, the idea is preposterous.  There is simply no way that a takeover of Capitol Hill by the Democrats could be perceived as good for business […]

November 9, 2020 | The Case for a New Election (or Maybe Not. See My Update at Bottom.)

The acrid aroma of voter fraud has grown so strong that even Biden supporters must smell it. To them, however, it undoubtedly has a fragrance as sweet as lilacs in August. Unfortunately for America, no matter how deep, wide and ugly the scandal might become, it may not be enough to overturn the election result. […]

November 4, 2020 | Joe, Are You Sure You Want the Job?

It looks as though the Democrats will get nearly everything they’ve wanted — except for control of the U.S. Senate. This means that turning the Supreme Court into a rubber stamp for new laws that would radically transform America will likely remain out of their reach for at least the next four years. That’s the […]

November 3, 2020 | What if the Democrats Get Everything They’ve Wanted?

The map showed up in my email this afternoon, sent by a subscriber who, like me, simply cannot fathom polls that have Biden winning. This poll asked 373,000 people across America who they though their neighbors would vote for. Trump won in every state but Colorado, which has to mean something.  If the many pollsters who […]

November 1, 2020 | Why ‘Oracular’ Professor Will Be Wrong

By this time next month we may know who won. Just kidding, sort of. Earlier, I predicted that if Trump wins, endless legal disputes would ensue, along with violence in the streets. However, I also said Trump’s margin of victory would be big enough to allay Wall Street’s anxieties about not having a clear winner.  […]

October 28, 2020 | Have Plummeting Stocks Sniffed a Biden Win? Here’s a Bullish Explanation…

Stocks have gotten hit hard this week.  Have investors perhaps caught a whiff of a possible Biden victory and the damage he and his socialist running mate would inflict on American businesses and the middle class? That’s one explanation, and I raised the possibility here numerous times over the last several weeks that it could […]

October 25, 2020 | Why a Trump Victory Would Set Black Americans Free

directly to his son’s shady business deals and the huge kickbacks they’ve generated over the years. No, I’m talking about something even more unexpected: It’s becoming cool for African Americans to vote for Trump and to openly support him. Rapper Kanye West started things rolling in April with a full-throated endorsement that caused jaws to […]

October 21, 2020 | Dog-Whistling Marxists Is Not a Winning Strategy

Bulls are straining to hold shares aloft, but we haven’t seen sufficient weakness to infer that the stock market smells a Biden victory. That would be a catastrophe for Wall Street, even if some pundits insist investors might actually prefer him. We now have fake opinions, it would seem, to supplement fake news intended to […]

October 20, 2020 | Strategy to Deal With Uncertain Markets

Will the US Dollar pick up again?

October 18, 2020 | An Outrageously Bullish Election Scenario

  Here’s a stock-market scenario so outrageous that you may want to consider it, especially if you like longshot bets that are underpriced. Everyone is worried the election will produce no clear winner and that it will take months to sort out the results. Since Wall Street hates uncertainty, especially when the nation’s future is […]

October 15, 2020 | Bulls Seem to Be Saying ‘Up Yours!’

I featured a cautionary headline atop this page for the last two days, but they way stocks have been behaving, we all might as well throw caution to the wind. Technical signs looked quite bearish when the week began, and the way certain stocks and index futures were acting gave me to infer they were […]

October 13, 2020 | Cautionary Signs

The yellow flag is out, since the Nasdaq 100, AAPL and the E-Mini S&Ps all failed to reach their respective Hidden Pivot price objectives on this week’s run-up. In addition, VXX, which tracks short-term S&P 500 volatility, looks like it’s primed to turn higher following a withering decline begun more than a month ago. If […]

October 11, 2020 | Stock Market Still Betting on Trump

With the election campaign headed down the stretch, investors are still betting Trump will win. The Dow Industrials have risen to within striking distance of February’s 29,568 record. Does anyone think this could have occurred if Biden were a shoe-in, as the pollsters would have us believe? More likely is that the Dow would be […]

October 8, 2020 | Mashed Potatoes and Jello Lead the Charge

AAPL looks like it will need to pull back to get a running start at $120, where supply is certain to be plentiful.  Freaky Friday could provide an opportunity to do it the easy way – i.e., with short-covering on any kind of news that could be construed as bullish. But it’s hard to imagine […]

October 6, 2020 | An L-Shaped Recovery in Our Future?

Let’s see if The Bull Market That Wouldn’t Die can shrug this one off. Trump postponed stimulus talks until at least after the election, causing a 600-point reversal in the Dow Industrials. With no stimulus in sight, all of those would-be dollars from the sky won’t get spent by holiday shoppers.  They are usually unstoppable […]

October 5, 2020 | Wall Street Can’t Hide It’s Love for Trump

If stocks plunged Friday on news that Trump had caught the virus, and then began to surge as soon as it looked like he would recover, investors must like the guy, right? Or so it would seem.  The Dow rose almost 500 points on Monday as the President’s doctors prepared to send him home earlier […]

October 4, 2020 | When Even the Smart Money Panics

Wall Street kept its cool Friday on news that President Trump and Melania had contracted the virus. Investors were so cool, in fact, that one might have wondered whether even a collision between Earth and a giant asteroid would shake their confidence in the Fed’s ability to levitate shares indefinitely.  Although we might have expected […]

October 1, 2020 | QQQ Could Drag AAPL Higher for a Change

AAPL is actually lagging the Nasdaq for a rare change, well shy of a key resistance that will determine whether the stock is headed for a moon shot to 152. It is currently trading for around 117, but the bullish trigger point at 127.53 lies 11 points above, or 9.1%. By contrast, the QQQ, an […]

September 30, 2020 | Hard to Get Short, Impossible to Stay that Way

The most bearish thing you could say about the stock market these days is that it has been damn near impossible to short. Perhaps it’s for the better where bears are concerned. The chart above shows how the QQQs, an ETF proxy for the Nasdaq 100, have turned what could have become a bearish head-and-shoulders […]

September 29, 2020 | Keep It Clean, Guys! Yeah, Sure….

Investors took no discernible position ahead of the debate, allowing stocks to slosh around the whole day and to close near the middle of their range. Even if you could be sure of the outcome, how would you have bet it?  The pundits seem to think Biden could benefit from low expectations if he gets […]

September 27, 2020 | Have You Heard About SPACs?

What came to be known as the South Sea Bubble was so pumped up before it popped in 1720 that investors apparently viewed nearly every opportunity as a sure thing. The York Building Company, for one.  After being purchased by the Hollow Sword Blade Company, it mutated into a provider of water to London, to […]

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