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John Mauldin

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John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.

August 2nd, 2020 | European Resurgence

Thoughts from the Front Line - One of COVID-19’s many less-than-obvious consequences is the way it makes us look inward. Facing mortality has always done that, of course. West Texas Judge Roy Bean reportedly said, “Nothing focuses the mind like a good hanging.” For the vulnerable and those of us of a certain age (ahem), this virus goes beyond the normal […]

July 26th, 2020 | Valuation Inflation

Thoughts from the Front Line - In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” —Benjamin Graham You may have noticed a bit of manic activity in the stock market. You may have also noticed inflation (as measured by various government agencies) is quite low, despite a supply interruption in […]

July 19th, 2020 | Small Business Blues

Thoughts from the Front Line - Politicians love saying small businesses are important to the economy. In this case, it isn’t just rhetoric. The millions of little companies with a handful of workers are, collectively, more important than the few hundred large enterprises we see in the news. That’s one reason the corona crisis has been so economically devastating. It hit […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Work has always been a fact of life. Paycheck-producing jobs are actually a recent development. Until the Industrial Revolution, most people lived on subsistence agriculture, sustaining themselves with whatever they could produce or working as slaves/serfs. The practice of producing something you wouldn’t personally use had been around but reached a new stage with the […]

July 5th, 2020 | The Blacker Swan

Thoughts from the Front Line - “A similar effect is taking place in economic life. I spoke about globalization in Chapter 3; it is here, but it is not all for the good: it creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words, it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the […]

June 28th, 2020 | A Recession Like No Other

Thoughts from the Front Line - We just spent the better part of a decade wondering when the next recession would strike. The last two months we stopped wondering. It’s here and a grand council of esteemed economists has confirmed it. On June 8, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research found monthly economic activity had […]

June 21st, 2020 | Where We Go from Here

Thoughts from the Front Line - Predictions are difficult, especially those about the future. That old proverb (often attributed to Yogi Berra) is right but you can’t live without making certain presumptions. You presume your car will start, your refrigerator will stay cold, the lights will turn on when you flip the switch. In fact, you could argue this “predictability” separates […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - We are on the horns of a dilemma, caught between the Scylla and Charybdis, a rock and a hard place, the devil and the deep blue sea, the anvil and the hammer. The walls are closing in. We’re in a tight spot. All those metaphors (I could list more but will spare you) fit the […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Should you wear a mask in public? This seemingly simple question immediately generates emotional, political, and social anxiety. It is just one of many provocative questions COVID-19 is forcing upon us. They should be simple, data-driven policy issues but many are not. Today’s letter is in a different format from the usual Thoughts from the […]

May 31st, 2020 | Economics in Orbit

Thoughts from the Front Line -   The history of humanity, at least as taught in most schools, is really about two seemingly opposite forces: human innovation and human conflict. The same intelligence that lets us accomplish great things also sets us against each other. But sometimes, we rise above it. Last week I saw on Twitter (where you should follow […]

May 24th, 2020 | Rewinding the Tape

Thoughts from the Front Line - We finished the Virtual Strategic Investment Conference yesterday. I can honestly say it was simply the best conference I have ever attended or been privileged to host. The ability to bring together so many exciting speakers, something schedules would not have allowed if we were holding a physical conference, offered a constant stream of thought-provoking, […]

May 17th, 2020 | Reflection Week

Thoughts from the Front Line - I knew this letter’s topic months ago. It was going to be a review of the Strategic Investment Conference, which would have just concluded fabulously in sunny Scottsdale. Well, something intervened. Coronavirus precautions kept us from having an in-person conference. No one was more disappointed than me. I often say SIC is the highlight of […]

May 10th, 2020 | Five Viral Lessons

Thoughts from the Front Line - We live in truly historic times. “There are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen,” says a quote usually attributed to Vladimir Lenin. It certainly fits now. For thousands of years, people who lived through what we call “history” didn’t realize it. We are the exceptions. We’re seeing history and we know it. […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Market sentiment reflects human sentiment, which lately has been quite negative—understandably so, given the great uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus pandemic. A month ago, we didn’t know where all this was going but it was potentially serious. I can almost begin to sense sentiment changing. New drug therapies are being announced and dozens of vaccines are […]

April 26th, 2020 | Viral Thoughts

Thoughts from the Front Line - We are looking at a world with parameters bounded by pure imagination; where we go from here is anyone’s guess. —Will Thomson and Chip Russell, Massif Capital Today’s letter will be another hop-around review of the crisis landscape. I’ll touch on several topics instead of going deep into a single theme. So much is going […]

April 19th, 2020 | Repricing the World

Thoughts from the Front Line - The viral fog is starting to thin. US coronavirus case growth appears to be slowing, albeit at a tragically high level. Governments and businesses are thinking about the next stage. On the other hand, fog tends to return when the weather is right. Might this virus come back, as seems to be happening in Japan […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. … A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level can provide a framework under which a country can have little inflation and much growth.” —Milton Friedman, […]

April 5th, 2020 | Notes from Lockdown

Thoughts from the Front Line -   In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. —Eric Hoffer Greetings from Puerto Rico, where this frequent traveler is evidently home for an unusually long time. I want to start today by thanking everyone for your kind wishes […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. But let’s begin with a small one, noticeable perhaps only to me. Over the years I’ve received thousands of reader emails responding to my letters. I read and appreciate them all, even the critical ones. Often the readers mention where they were when […]

March 22nd, 2020 | The Beacons Are Lit

Thoughts from the Front Line - In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. It is relevant to our situation today. Gondor needed to light the beacons for aid. Click here for video. At the other end of the beacons, no one is sure whether the […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - This is a short midweek note, something I haven’t done for years. But as we all know, these are very special and difficult times. Below, I’ll give you two links. They describe the nature of the new coronavirus pandemic and its potential consequences. I have run this past the best medical professionals I know, and […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - I write this letter early Friday morning after a week in New York visiting with many fellow market participants. And lots of phone calls, both to analysts and medical experts. I had originally planned a completely different letter but circumstances changed. Humility is a good thing to have when you’re forecasting the economy or markets. […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Strike, you’re out. The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the global economy. This is kind of how coronavirus fear is spreading from China […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. Historically suboptimal growth? Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession. The coronavirus obviously qualifies as an exogenous event. But that doesn’t mean a textbook two-quarter recession, although it certainly may. Financial markets aren’t waiting […]

February 23rd, 2020 | Why Americans Want Socialism

Thoughts from the Front Line - As I write this, a self-proclaimed “democratic socialist” is leading the race for one of our major parties’ presidential nomination. The fact that so many Americans (especially young Americans) support Bernie Sanders ought to tell us something. A Quinnipiac poll out this week showed Senator Sanders with 54% support among Democrats age 18–34. Meanwhile, 50% […]
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