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John Mauldin

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John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.

May 9th, 2021 | This Kind of Duality

Thoughts from the Front Line - We’re midway through the SIC 2021, and as I expected, it’s shaping up to be the biggest and best Strategic Investment Conference I’ve ever hosted. So far, all of our presenters and panelists have given stellar performances… and attendees seem to agree with that assessment. Even if you haven’t been there for the live “New […]

May 2nd, 2021 | Anomaly of a Recovery

Thoughts from the Front Line - We did the first Strategic Investment Conference 18 years ago. I remember one of the partners in the firm that cohosted the event telling me as I walked up to the stage, “John, it doesn’t get any better than this. Don’t screw it up.” He was wrong. Every year the attendees told me it was […]

April 25th, 2021 | Stumbling to Scarcity

Thoughts from the Front Line - In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle through” most of our problems was immensely valuable and sometimes profitable. But as our […]

April 18th, 2021 | Tsunami Warning

Thoughts from the Front Line - A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, the water actually disappears from the usual shoreline, leaving land where there should be sea. A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, […]

April 11th, 2021 | Tiny Housing Bubbles

Thoughts from the Front Line - Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to see how often I used the word “bubble.” It was more than I thought, and I wasn’t quoting Don Ho. The bubbles I talked about were anything but tiny. Most of them subsequently popped, too. Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to […]

April 4th, 2021 | The Exponential Ride

Thoughts from the Front Line - The last year brought exponential growth in, among other things, use of the word “exponential.” It is now the go-to term when you want to say something is “growing super-fast.” I’ve got to admit it’s getting better (Better) A little better all the time (It can’t get no worse) I have to admit it’s getting […]

March 28th, 2021 | The 1970s Never Ended

Thoughts from the Front Line - Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s. I personally remember that decade well. I was in my 20s and they were formative years. I […]

March 21st, 2021 | Broken Debt

Thoughts from the Front Line - Modern technology is amazing but our ancient forebears built some wondrous things, too. Long-ago historians organized them into “Seven Wonders of the Ancient World.” (Of course, their “world” was the Mediterranean and Middle East. Other wonders existed elsewhere.) Last week I noted how some call compound interest the Eighth Wonder of the World. Is it […]

March 14th, 2021 | Inflation Is Broken

Thoughts from the Front Line - I have been writing for many years that the US in particular and the Western “developed” world in general were approaching a time where none of our choices would be good. We have arrived. Any choice the government and central banks of the US and the rest of the world make will ultimately lead to […]

March 7th, 2021 | Everything Is Broken

Thoughts from the Front Line - Broken lines, broken strings, Broken threads, broken springs, Broken idols, broken heads, People sleeping in broken beds —Bob Dylan, “Everything is Broken” from the album Oh Mercy, 1989 I was on a client call earlier this week with Steve Blumenthal. The gentleman is at that stage in life where he needs cash income and not […]

February 28th, 2021 | The Great Jobs Reset

Thoughts from the Front Line - We are almost through February and (knocking on wood) the US COVID-19 situation is improving daily. The B117 and other variants haven’t yet made a big impact. Possibly they will, but as time passes more people are getting at least partial protection through vaccines. The “race” I’ve described seems to be going the way we […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Readers often ask how these letters appear so regularly. The answer is we have a process. Normally, I talk to my associate Patrick Watson on Monday about the next weekend’s letter. We both go into research mode, verbally outlining a letter, and by Thursday I have an outline and some background research. This gives me […]

February 14th, 2021 | Overstimulation Risk

Thoughts from the Front Line - Among the many strange, unforeseen changes of the last year is a new respect for Keynesian economic theory. Practically everyone in power now agrees that deficit spending produces GDP growth. They differ only on its expected magnitude and duration. The few exceptions are mostly outside the halls of power. This matters because deficit spending, already […]

February 7th, 2021 | Controlling the Curve

Thoughts from the Front Line - If time is money, then interest rates are the price of time. The most important interest rates in the world are for US Treasury securities. This is why I’ve long said it makes no sense for a committee to set those rates. The markets could do just fine without that help, thank you. But the […]

January 31st, 2021 | Inflation and Broken Windows

Thoughts from the Front Line - I’m often asked if I foresee inflation or deflation. This week we had an “Ask Me Anything” session for Alpha Society members and it came up several times. Both are possible in their own ways, and frankly I feel a little funny telling people I think we will see both. I would just like to […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - This will be the third part of my 2021 Forecast Series. You can read the first two parts here and here. The general theme has been “On the Gripping Hand.” Science fiction writers imagined a three-handed alien race with a left hand, right hand, and a very strong Gripping Hand. 2021 is the year of […]

January 17th, 2021 | The Grip Tightens

Thoughts from the Front Line - This is part two of my 2021 forecast series. I began last week (you can read it here) discussing a three-handed alien race envisioned by science fiction writers Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. They had two regular hands and a third “gripping hand,” which though less dexterous, was far stronger. My analogy was that the […]

January 10th, 2021 | Year of the Gripping Hand

Thoughts from the Front Line - This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021. Before beginning, I want to make two points, one about my personal investment […]

December 20th, 2020 | Stock Market Party

Thoughts from the Front Line - The end of 2020 has me looking back. I started writing the letters that later became Thoughts from the Frontline back in the late 1990s. Similar to COVID-19 today, we had a giant macro issue then, too: Y2K. It’s hard to believe now how frightened some people were. But as I expected, the big day […]

December 13th, 2020 | Survival of the Biggest

Thoughts from the Front Line - The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process… At the heart of capitalism is creative destruction. …Situations emerge in the process of creative destruction in which many firms may have to perish that nevertheless would be able to live on vigorously and usefully if they […]

December 6th, 2020 | Elites on the Edge

Thoughts from the Front Line - Growing income and wealth inequality were on my (and probably your) radar screen long before COVID-19 came along. The pandemic has made them both more obvious and more urgent. The actions by the Federal Reserve have widened the gap. We are now in a situation where society’s upper echelon can easily stay safe and prosperous […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - A Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all my US friends. This year was different for many of us—sometimes by choice, sometimes not. But there’s one bit of good news I think we can all share: The holiday season means 2020 is almost over. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page. Each year at this time, […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - A quick note before I start: Some of you didn’t get last week’s letter because some major internet providers decided it was junk mail. This was maddening but beyond our control. It may be in your “spam” or junk folder. You can help us train the algorithms by marking them as “not spam.” Remember, you […]

November 8th, 2020 | Complexity Wins Again

Thoughts from the Front Line - Here in Puerto Rico we are now an hour ahead of Eastern Time, as we don’t do daylight savings time. I stayed up much later than normal on election night to watch the returns. I knew fairly early, when Florida and North Carolina looked so close, we weren’t going to see a “blue wave.” But […]

November 1st, 2020 | What Will Not Change

Thoughts from the Front Line - “If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants.” —Sir Isaac Newton, 1675   If you feel a bit overwhelmed, you’re not alone. A lot is happening right now. The US has a big election next week. We’re all on edge about the pandemic, which appears to be getting worse […]
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