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John Mauldin

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John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.

July 18th, 2021 | Xi’s Big Mistake

Thoughts from the Front Line - I have mixed feelings about China. On the plus side, I think the country’s massive economic transformation may be one of the most impressive events in human history. Bringing hundreds of millions from primitive rural lives into relatively prosperous cities within a few years was awe-inspiring. I greatly admire the millions of Chinese entrepreneurs worldwide […]

July 11th, 2021 | TINA Is Stupid

Thoughts from the Front Line - In the 1980s, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher liked to say, “There is no alternative” to her market-driven economic reform ideas. She said it so much people began abbreviating it as “TINA.” Whatever you think of Lady Thatcher’s policies, the slogan was certainly effective politics. If victory is inevitable, you can either cooperate or be […]

July 4th, 2021 | The New Inquisition

Thoughts from the Front Line - It is as essential to democracy that the minority should voluntarily submit to the measures adopted as it is that the majority should voluntarily approve them. Democratic government rests upon the principle that it is better to count heads than it is to break them. The principle is a good one, but unfortunately, men will […]

June 27th, 2021 | Long Humanity

Thoughts from the Front Line - “At the end of the day” is a trite figure of speech, but it sometimes fits. It signals you’ve used all your time, and now you’ll wrap up and begin thinking about tomorrow. I like to say designing the Strategic Investment Conference agenda is my personal art form. There’s more to it than just picking […]

June 13th, 2021 | Politics with No Labels

Thoughts from the Front Line - You can’t always get what you want But if you try sometime you find You get what you need —by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards, 1969 There’s no way around it: Investing in public companies is always political. Corporations exist because governments charter these artificial entities and legally shield the owners (shareholders) from personal liability. […]

June 6th, 2021 | Technology Rules

Thoughts from the Front Line - Macroeconomic forecasting is too politicized. I don’t mean that in a partisan sense, though it may be so. The bigger problem is that forecasters spend most of their time thinking about central bank decisions and government policies. In the long run, those aren’t the most important factors. Not even close. What really drives economic progress […]

May 30th, 2021 | Deflation Talk

Thoughts from the Front Line - If you could ask the world’s top central bankers what really terrifies them, I think the honest answer would usually be “deflation.” It is their greatest nightmare. They think a little inflation is good (thus the 2%+ target), and they’re confident they can subdue it if necessary. Deflation is a bigger problem. Let’s note, however, […]

May 23rd, 2021 | Expecting Inflation

Thoughts from the Front Line - The annual whirlwind is over. SIC was once again a mental overload. This year our virtual schedule spread it over almost two weeks, which was actually nice. The in-between days let the ideas settle a bit before the firehose opened again. Fifty powerful, thoughtful speakers are a lot to absorb. As promised, I’ll continue sharing […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - The SIC was in full swing this week. I am finishing this on Friday morning, a few hours before the start of the last official day and then a “Plus Day” on Tuesday. My mind is swimming with new connections and revelations. While the live events are mostly over now, your SIC pass gives you […]

May 9th, 2021 | This Kind of Duality

Thoughts from the Front Line - We’re midway through the SIC 2021, and as I expected, it’s shaping up to be the biggest and best Strategic Investment Conference I’ve ever hosted. So far, all of our presenters and panelists have given stellar performances… and attendees seem to agree with that assessment. Even if you haven’t been there for the live “New […]

May 2nd, 2021 | Anomaly of a Recovery

Thoughts from the Front Line - We did the first Strategic Investment Conference 18 years ago. I remember one of the partners in the firm that cohosted the event telling me as I walked up to the stage, “John, it doesn’t get any better than this. Don’t screw it up.” He was wrong. Every year the attendees told me it was […]

April 25th, 2021 | Stumbling to Scarcity

Thoughts from the Front Line - In economic forecasting, reality is usually somewhere between the extremes. The best-case and worst-case rarely happen. That’s why, when they do happen, markets react so quickly to the “missed expectations.” I saw this early in my career. Realizing we will “muddle through” most of our problems was immensely valuable and sometimes profitable. But as our […]

April 18th, 2021 | Tsunami Warning

Thoughts from the Front Line - A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, the water actually disappears from the usual shoreline, leaving land where there should be sea. A tsunami is a wall of water that wipes out everything in its path, typically caused by earthquakes. But first, […]

April 11th, 2021 | Tiny Housing Bubbles

Thoughts from the Front Line - Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to see how often I used the word “bubble.” It was more than I thought, and I wasn’t quoting Don Ho. The bubbles I talked about were anything but tiny. Most of them subsequently popped, too. Recently I searched the Thoughts from the Frontline archives to […]

April 4th, 2021 | The Exponential Ride

Thoughts from the Front Line - The last year brought exponential growth in, among other things, use of the word “exponential.” It is now the go-to term when you want to say something is “growing super-fast.” I’ve got to admit it’s getting better (Better) A little better all the time (It can’t get no worse) I have to admit it’s getting […]

March 28th, 2021 | The 1970s Never Ended

Thoughts from the Front Line - Big economic storms are rare and usually end quickly, but they tend to have long-lasting effects. Today I want to talk about a storm 50 years ago that still affects us now. Important things happened in the 1970s. I personally remember that decade well. I was in my 20s and they were formative years. I […]

March 21st, 2021 | Broken Debt

Thoughts from the Front Line - Modern technology is amazing but our ancient forebears built some wondrous things, too. Long-ago historians organized them into “Seven Wonders of the Ancient World.” (Of course, their “world” was the Mediterranean and Middle East. Other wonders existed elsewhere.) Last week I noted how some call compound interest the Eighth Wonder of the World. Is it […]

March 14th, 2021 | Inflation Is Broken

Thoughts from the Front Line - I have been writing for many years that the US in particular and the Western “developed” world in general were approaching a time where none of our choices would be good. We have arrived. Any choice the government and central banks of the US and the rest of the world make will ultimately lead to […]

March 7th, 2021 | Everything Is Broken

Thoughts from the Front Line - Broken lines, broken strings, Broken threads, broken springs, Broken idols, broken heads, People sleeping in broken beds —Bob Dylan, “Everything is Broken” from the album Oh Mercy, 1989 I was on a client call earlier this week with Steve Blumenthal. The gentleman is at that stage in life where he needs cash income and not […]

February 28th, 2021 | The Great Jobs Reset

Thoughts from the Front Line - We are almost through February and (knocking on wood) the US COVID-19 situation is improving daily. The B117 and other variants haven’t yet made a big impact. Possibly they will, but as time passes more people are getting at least partial protection through vaccines. The “race” I’ve described seems to be going the way we […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - Readers often ask how these letters appear so regularly. The answer is we have a process. Normally, I talk to my associate Patrick Watson on Monday about the next weekend’s letter. We both go into research mode, verbally outlining a letter, and by Thursday I have an outline and some background research. This gives me […]

February 14th, 2021 | Overstimulation Risk

Thoughts from the Front Line - Among the many strange, unforeseen changes of the last year is a new respect for Keynesian economic theory. Practically everyone in power now agrees that deficit spending produces GDP growth. They differ only on its expected magnitude and duration. The few exceptions are mostly outside the halls of power. This matters because deficit spending, already […]

February 7th, 2021 | Controlling the Curve

Thoughts from the Front Line - If time is money, then interest rates are the price of time. The most important interest rates in the world are for US Treasury securities. This is why I’ve long said it makes no sense for a committee to set those rates. The markets could do just fine without that help, thank you. But the […]

January 31st, 2021 | Inflation and Broken Windows

Thoughts from the Front Line - I’m often asked if I foresee inflation or deflation. This week we had an “Ask Me Anything” session for Alpha Society members and it came up several times. Both are possible in their own ways, and frankly I feel a little funny telling people I think we will see both. I would just like to […]

Thoughts from the Front Line - This will be the third part of my 2021 Forecast Series. You can read the first two parts here and here. The general theme has been “On the Gripping Hand.” Science fiction writers imagined a three-handed alien race with a left hand, right hand, and a very strong Gripping Hand. 2021 is the year of […]
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