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January 17, 2024 | Outlook Weakening Under Equity Market Optimsim

Danielle Park

Portfolio Manager and President of Venable Park Investment Counsel ( Ms Park is a financial analyst, attorney, finance author and regular guest on North American media. She is also the author of the best-selling myth-busting book "Juggling Dynamite: An insider's wisdom on money management, markets and wealth that lasts," and a popular daily financial blog:

January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession.

Meanwhile, the analyst consensus is for S&P earnings per share growth of more than 10 percent over the next 12 months (red line below since 2000, courtesy of Mikael Sarwe) even as nominal new orders are contracting (in blue). Typically, earnings follow new order trends.

At the same time, US Gross Domestic Income was -.2% year over year in the third quarter compared with a 2.9% estimate for GDP. This disconnect is extreme and commonly, GDP is revised lower in retrospect to meet GDI.

Dr. Hunt illuminates many of these readings in the segment below.

Here is a direct video link.

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January 17th, 2024

Posted In: Juggling Dynamite

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