February 26, 2023 | Will 7% Mortgages Crush Housing?

Between 2020 and 2022 houses in America’s hottest real estate markets went from unaffordable to 50% above unaffordable. Put another way, they did what would have been impossible in an economy where market forces determined interest rates and home prices. But ours was not that kind of market. Central banks around the world had lost […]

February 25, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For February 25, 2023

Interest rates keep rising Incoming inflation data has been hotter than expected; forward markets are now pricing another 75bps increase from the Fed (25 bps at each of the March, May and June FOMC meetings), taking the terminal rate to ~5.4% by August, with modest declines from there into year-end. Short rates in June are […]

February 25, 2023 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark –  Stock Markets, USD, Oil, Copper
• John Rubino – (13:21)  Recession, Gold, US Dollar, Mortgage Rates, World War 3
• Wolf Richter –  (41:04) Interest Rates, Consumer Spending, Autos, Real Estate

February 24, 2023 | The Russia Ukraine Conflict Drags on into a Second Year

The Russia Ukraine “special military operation” is now one year old and showing no signs of ending. A surprise visit of US President Joe Biden to Ukraine promising “unwavering support” ensures that the US will not cut back on assistance and that Ukraine forces will not be defeated on the battlefield in the near future. […]

February 24, 2023 | Central Banks in No Position to “Have Your Back”

Recession soft landing? How about no landing!

February 23, 2023 | What Will Happen When Banks Go Bust? Bank Runs, Bail-Ins and Systemic Risk

Financial podcasts have been featuring ominous headlines lately along the lines of “Your Bank Can Legally Seize Your Money” and “Banks Can STEAL Your Money?! Here’s How!” The reference is to “bail-ins:” the provision under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act allowing Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs, basically the biggest banks) to bail in or expropriate their […]

February 23, 2023 | Ides of March and Market Madness

US Dollar, Gold, Bitcoin.  Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

February 23, 2023 | Copper, Lithium, Crude Oil, US Dollar

Uranium, Cannabis

February 23, 2023 | Real US Economic Numbers

US Dollar, Inflation, Crude Oil, Gold

February 22, 2023 | Grantham: After a Timeout, Back to the Meat Grinder

GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham’s latest market letter is worth the read as usual; see After a timeout, back to the meat grinder! On equities, Grantham’s base case is that the S&P 500 could fall a further 20% by year-end, for a total real decline of 40% since 2022. My calculations of trendline value of the S&P 500, […]

February 21, 2023 | A Constructive Suggestion

On Feb 16, the CFTC released another update on the status of the delay in publishing COT reports on all markets (some seem to think the delay is only for gold and silver), as result of the cyber-incident at a key third-party service provider. The new announcement indicated that COT reports will commence starting next […]

February 20, 2023 | March of Folly: Fall of American Empire

“Folly is a child of power.” ― Barbara W. Tuchman, The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam “A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by governments of policies contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity. In […]

February 19, 2023 | The Bitcoin Delusion

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Now with Switzerland outlawing a cashless society, I understand your point that cryptocurrency is really a dead end. Without power, it cannot exist and as you said in times of war, you take down the power grid and they can do that with an EPM pulse. These Bitcoin zealots are clueless about […]

February 18, 2023 | Trading Desk Notes For February 18, 2023

Interest rates rose again this week; stocks, bonds and gold fell while the US Dollar rallied I began last week’s Notes by pointing out that markets had been “fighting the Fed” for the past couple of months by expecting the Fed to “pivot” – to start cutting interest rates – by mid-2023 despite repeated warnings from Chairman Powell that the Fed […]

February 18, 2023 | This Week in Money

• Ross Clark – Stock Markets, Consolidation, Bitcoin.  Special Offer! 25% Off New Annual Subscriptions – Good Through February 20, 2023
• Eric Hadik – ( 9:41) Market Cycles, Tech Stocks, Gold, Silver, War
• Martin Straith – (41:48) Bonds, Debt, Recession, Hot Trends.  Special Offer!
• Zarko Meseldzija – (1:13:32) CEO of  RecycLiCo™ Battery Materials Inc. on Company Showcase – RecycLiCo™ CEO & CFO Excited to Attend NAATBATT Event Feb 20 – 23, 2023.  Increasing investments in the Lithium-Ion Battery Industry.  Read Benchmark Minerals Article – “Battery Production Set to Pass 1 TWh in 2023“.  Read/Watch Global News Article -“How Electric Vehicles are Sparking a Battery Recycling Revolution“.  Read ConstructionDive Article – “Report: JE Dunn Wins $3.2B EV Battery Plant Job“.  Read Global Times Article – “A Boom City Built on Electric Batteries“.  Read CNBC Article – “Ford to Move Forward with $3.5 Billion EV Battery Plant with Chinese Company“.  Read The Wall Street Journal Article – “Ford Halts Output of F-150 Lightning EV Due to Battery Issue“.  Video  – The demonstration plant for the RecycLiCo™ Patented Process is now operational in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Questions?  Email or Phone: 778.574.4444

February 17, 2023 | Hot Inflation Reports Mean That Rate Hikes are Not Done Yet

The fight against inflation is far from over. The US Federal Reserve is committed to taking rates higher, even if the result is a recession or a severe market correction. Can this cycle end? This week there were economic reports showing that CPI inflation is not fading away. The markets were convinced that inflation reports […]

February 17, 2023 | RecycLiCo™ CEO & CFO Excited to Attend NAATBATT Event Feb 20 – 23, 2023

Increasing investments in the Lithium-Ion Battery Industry. Read Benchmark Minerals Article – “Battery Production Set to Pass 1 TWh in 2023“. Read/Watch Global News Article -“How Electric Vehicles are Sparking a Battery Recycling Revolution“. Read ConstructionDive Article – “Report: JE Dunn Wins $3.2B EV Battery Plant Job“. Read Global Times Article – “A Boom City […]

February 17, 2023 | Gold, Interest Rates, Recession, Junk Bonds

Ferrari heir races onto world’s richest list

February 16, 2023 | The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: February Update on the Housing Bust

ome sales in Canada plunged by 37% in January, compared to a year earlier, amid rising inventory. Home prices dropped by 0.5% in January from December, by 12.6% year-over-year, and by 17.8% from the peak in March 2022, the 10th month-to-month decline in a row, according to the Canada Composite Home Price Index by the […]

February 16, 2023 | US Stock Markets, Gold, The Fed, Digital Currency

Cash, Interest Rates, Geo-cosmic Events.  Receive 50% Off VR Trader Newsletters! Enter Promo Code 2022HALFOFF.

February 16, 2023 | Gold, Silver, US Dollar, Lithium, Inflation, Interest Rates

Could US pension debt lead to hyperinflation?

February 16, 2023 | Gold in a Digital Currency Environment

Real Estate, Battery Metals, Silver

February 16, 2023 | Trains, Balloons and Stupid

Money, Censorship, Jabs, Smart Cities

February 15, 2023 | War & Capital Flows

COMMENT: Marty, I attended your coming out WEC in Philadelphia in 2011. Just about everyone I spoke with said the same thing. They all showed up to make sure it was really you and not some government stooge pretending to be you. I must say, when you put up the war cycle, I thought it […]