ALWAYS CONSULT YOUR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION
February 26, 2025 | Gold Visas – Attracting Wealthy Immigrants
The United States is looking to attract wealthy immigrants looking for US citizenship through a new “gold visa” program. “It’ll be people with money,” Trump said outright, noting the visa is “something akin to a green card, but with a higher level of sophistication.” The new path to citizenship will replace the current EB-5 visa […]
February 26, 2025 | WTI Breaches US$69/b. A New Energy Sector BUY Signal Should Occur in March
In early April we will see if President Trump is going to add stiff tariffs to Mexico and Canada and others around the world. It appears that he is using the hammer against his closest neighbours and then taking the plan against Europe and the rest of the world with trade surpluses with the US. […]
February 26, 2025 | Weirdest Housing Bubble Ever
Real estate is cyclical, which means it has its booms and busts, each of which differs slightly from the last. But today’s US housing market is so outside the norm that its strangeness has become the story’s main theme. Consider: Numerically speaking, housing used to be driven by young families buying starter houses. But today, […]
February 26, 2025 | Trumphoria Under Review
After the U.S. election, Trumphoria swept financial markets with parabolic moves in many risk assets into the new year. However, the realization may have dawned in the past month that government spending cuts, fewer immigrants, and tariffs mean more job losses, lower economic growth, and fewer passive capital flows into the stock market. From its […]
February 26, 2025 | Germany Seeks Independence from the USA
Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party and perhaps the new chancellor of Deutschland has a message for America – the relationship is over. Many have condemned the Russian people for supporting Vladimir Putin which is precisely what Merz has done regarding Donald Trump and conservative Americans. Merz plans […]
February 25, 2025 | Housing Bubbles are Very Costly in the Long-Run
The Bank of Canada has slashed overnight interest rates by 200 basis points over the past seven months to 3% from 5%, while variable and fixed mortgage rates have fallen to around 4% from more than 5% a year ago. Mortgage rates of around 4% are not high; they are about average historically. The trouble […]
February 24, 2025 | The Neocon Coup that Has Controlled the USA for 26 Year is Coming to an End
QUESTION: You said that the US was going to invade Iran after Iraq. Was that classified? I never heard of that. You also said that the Neocons pulled off a coup and seized control of American foreign policy, and the press prints their narrative. I respect your sources, which appear to be remarkable. Lira was […]
February 24, 2025 | Revenue Thoughts
Last week we began discussing the import tariffs President Trump has been threatening. Most (China is the exception) have not taken effect yet. It’s possible they will never happen or will be quickly modified or rescinded as happened in Trump’s first term. Real or not, the fact these tariffs might happen affects business and consumer confidence, which […]
February 24, 2025 | Shelter Inflation
Happy Monday Morning! A recent reprieve on tariffs, combined with slightly hotter than expected jobs and inflation data have slowed the odds of a rate cut from the Bank of Canada in March. The two core inflation measures — so-called trim and median — both jumped to 2.7% in January. These metrics have been stuck […]
February 23, 2025 | Merz Wins in Germany but Ignores the People
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, Congratulations. Socrates was correct once again. Scholz’s unpopular Social Democrat government has the worst performance since World War II. Merz won, and Afd doubled its support, coming in second. If this was America, Merz’s less than 29% would have been a joke. Here, he will rule Germany and stupidly vow no coalition […]
February 23, 2025 | Recession Watch: Should We Be Raising Cash?
Now, let’s zoom in on specific sectors that seem to be rolling over. Auto loan delinquency rates are spiking: Housing is frozen, but with inventories of homes for sale rising, a significant price decline looks imminent: Buyers Strike Crushes Green Shoots of Demand for Existing Homes, amid Surging Supply, Active Listings & Days on Market […]
February 23, 2025 | Who’s Telling the Truth about DeepSeek?
I’m tracking Nvidia shares closely because they can tell us whether China’s DeepSeek threatens America’s lead in AI development. The Nasdaq-listed stock got pummeled a month ago when the Chinese revealed they were developing an open-source chatbot that can easily compete on performance and price with the most advanced models offered by OpenAI and other […]
February 22, 2025 | Trading Desk Notes for February 22, 2025
Current positioning: My short-term trading account is short the S&P, long T-Notes, and long Yen. S&P futures traded at record highs on Wednesday but fell ~2.25% to Friday’s lows Friday’s break was the most significant drop since December 18, when the Fed cut 25 bps but hinted it was unlikely to cut again soon. Since […]
February 22, 2025 | Montana Legislators Working to Ban mRNA Vaccines
Messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccinations produce foreign proteins in the human body, triggering an immune response to prepare the body for future infections. Lipid nanoparticles flow into cells, mimicking a protein, but “the science” claims it does not enter the nucleus and, therefore, does not impact DNA. These vaccines are relatively new, with the first trial […]
February 22, 2025 | Tech Talk for Saturday February 22nd 2025
The Bottom Line The Dow Jones Industrial Average is following its typical seasonal pattern for the month of February: During the past 20 years, the Average has a history of moving lower from mid-February to mid-March
February 21, 2025 | Population Collapse is a Serious Threat
Population collapse will be a very important issue in many parts of the world in the near future. Outside of sub-Saharan Africa, the number of births is not sufficient to maintain the world’s population at 8 billion people. The impact on the economy will be enormous and hard to imagine for those who grew up […]
February 21, 2025 | DOGE vs Corrupt Media
Well, the country is still divided, with the Democrats screaming about DOGE. I would love to see Chuck Shummer in handcuffs and sent to Riker’s Island, where he belongs. All we hear is how evil Musk is, and that he is UNELECTED. I do not recall ever voting for the head of any […]
February 21, 2025 | Wild Times in Precious Metals
Since the start of this century, gold has outperformed stocks — despite stocks being in an epic bull market: You’d think that gold would have gotten more attention after such an impressive run. But until recently, this has remained a largely neglected asset class. But Now…Damn In just the past few weeks, the news […]
February 21, 2025 | Policy Mayhem and Markets
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research, discusses the release of the latest Fed minutes, and what’s next for monetary policy in light of an ongoing trade war. Here is a direct video link. .
February 20, 2025 | Why Timing Matters For Short Selling
Betting against overvalued stocks can be insanely profitable — if you use put options and get the timing right. But those are big “ifs”. Here’s a cautionary tale. Back in May of 2023, when this newsletter was new and its recommended Portfolios needed fleshing out, I named the homebuilder stocks as excellent short candidates. Home prices were too high, […]
February 20, 2025 | Over a Quarter of Canadians See US as an Enemy
The once strong alliance between Canada and the United States has come to an abrupt halt. More so than tariffs, Canadians were offended when President Donald Trump continually stated that America should absorb Canada as the 51st state. A recent poll found that over a quarter of Canadians now see the US as […]
February 19, 2025 | Moscow and Washington Discuss Peace – Trump Exposes Zelensky
The United States will no longer tend to Ukraine as if it were a helpless victim in the war. The media would like you to believe that Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation. The events that led to this war are detailed in “The Plot to Seize Russia.” The official US government stance on the […]
February 19, 2025 | New Listings Spring Early
Despite snow banks and cold temps in much of Canada, property owners are getting a jump on what they hope will be strong spring demand. New property listings leapt 11% nationwide from December to January, the largest monthly increase in almost two years. The supply influx boosted the inventory of homes for sale in Canada […]
February 18, 2025 | Homebuilder Sentiment Down as Tariffs Loom
Tariff threats have dampened homebuilding confidence. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped five points from January into February to a reading of 42, the lowest reading in five months. Builders were initially hopeful that the Trump administration would remove some red tape regulations to streamline the process. However, […]
February 18, 2025 | Bid-Ask Spreads Wide Under Canadian Shelter Prices
Despite a 200 basis point drop in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate, Canadian mortgage rates have more than doubled from the pandemic’s easy credit days when buyers were engulfed in bidding wars (5-year fixed rates offered by banks, below since April 2020, courtesy of WOW.ca).So far, sellers’ high hopes have kept asking prices elevated, even […]